I don't really see an issue with the sips hosting. They lost a lot of games they shouldn't have, but their record against good teams is decent, their RPI is strong, and with a good tournament run, they may make the cut.

Conference RPI is pretty bad though. They finished 5th in conference and only them and Pokes are top 30, with 4 teams bunched in the 30s... The 4 teams ahead of them have a legit gripe if tu hosts but I honestly don't really care either way. Would rather them go to Fayetteville or Baton Rouge as a 2 though no doubt.

What is the committee going to do Vandy if they win tonight? Their RPI will put them at # 3.

I think a win over Bama and we're a national seed. Thoughts?

I think it certainly locks it up. they are 40 RPI rn. would we drop by winning?

STCLaggie21 said:

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I think it certainly locks it up. they are 40 RPI rn. would we drop by winning?

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Yep. And we go up regardless if we play Tennessee.

We would move up to around 12 or 13 likely. But we also have to consider that a loss after a win against Bama would also impact our RPI. We can probably expect to finish no worse than where we are currently if we win the next one (right around 16 or 17).

It will be close, ideally we just keep winning. If we make it to the Tournament Finals we will be safely top 10.

I would like to see the Boyd's World update to see how many teams we are within 0.01 of. I would guess we are within 0.01 of the top 4 teams.

TAM85 said:

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I would like to see the Boyd's World update to see how many teams we are within 0.01 of. I would guess we are within 0.01 of the top 4 teams.

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Not following you here. You can see the full numbers at Boyd's and there is quite a bit more difference than 0.01 between us.. I do wish he'd add another digit but I realize how ridiculous 4 decimals is .

http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

1 0.623 49 7 42.7 7.3 49 7 Tennessee
20 0.585 35 17 31.7 17.3 35 17 Texas A&M

The total difference here is .038. And it's not linear at all but the most common delta between two immediate neighbors in the ranking is 0.000 or 0.001. I looked at the top 100 teams last week and this was the case for something like 70% of neighbors.

the sips' win jumped them into the top 10 --- there's the Big 12's host.

TCU is only 8-14 vs. the top 50. They won the league because they took care of business vs. the bottom feeders (6-0 vs. the Kansas schools). And the other top teams got dinged by KU or KSU

The sips also got the RPI bounce from playing Tennessee.

From playing and beating Tennessee. We are going to drop down another spot below Louisiville in RPI tonight as soon as Tennessee run rules Vandy.

the sips are 3-1 vs. TCU.

t.u. also went 6-3 vs. the SEC in non-conference games.

finishing in 5th place is their only blemish --- every other metric is very good

W said:

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the sips are 3-1 vs. TCU.

t.u. also went 6-3 vs. the SEC in non-conference games.

finishing in 5th place is their only blemish --- every other metric is very good

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I'd guess they also host.

Aston94 said:

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You really think they would give the 5th place team in a league a host spot over 1-4 because of rpi? If so rpi has to go. Games have to matter at some point.

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1 st place was 16-8 purple Baylor
2-4 was 15-9 land thieves, okie lite & tceh
5&6 was 14-10, tu & couchburners
Reasonably any team that is 1-5 could play themselves into a host spot with a good tourney run
Just don't see the couch burners getting a seed

Boyds World has not been updated since Tuesday. But if teams are really close in RPI, within .01 or so, other factors such as head to head or where they finished when in the same conference may outweigh RPI...

TAM85 said:

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Boyds World has not been updated since Tuesday. But if teams are really close in RPI, within .01 or so, other factors such as head to head or where they finished when in the same conference may outweigh RPI...

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I see what you are saying now. I think the idea is good and might be correct, but I think 0.01 is just too massive of a number to us here. I didn't update this on Tuesday but the image below is based on Boyd's prior update when we were 17. Using the 0.01 delta from the #17 Ags in this case would include the range from #8 to #33. Good concept but that's just a really big number imo. Reducing it to 0.005 would be closer to +/-5 for a swing of ~10 spots.

Yes, perhaps .005 is a better range. But whatever that range is (it may be better if it is not a hard number), I think head to head is better info for comparison than RPI. Similarly where you have a team that wins or finished second in a conference in the same RPI neighborhood vs. a team that finished 5th, you go with the conference winner even if it has a bit higher RPI.

Likely somebody from the bdf is going to get to host unless they take 5 seeds from both the ACC & SEC

The same can be said for every team in the bdf they all feasting on bu, ku , & ksu and five hundred against the teams with a pulse

RED AG 98 said:

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TAM85 said:

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Boyds World has not been updated since Tuesday. But if teams are really close in RPI, within .01 or so, other factors such as head to head or where they finished when in the same conference may outweigh RPI...

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I see what you are saying now. I think the idea is good and might be correct, but I think 0.01 is just too massive of a number to us here. I didn't update this on Tuesday but the image below is based on Boyd's prior update when we were 17. Using the 0.01 delta from the #17 Ags in this case would include the range from #8 to #33. Good concept but that's just a really big number imo. Reducing it to 0.005 would be closer to +/-5 for a swing of ~10 spots.

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To put this in perspective, there is a 0.0002 RPI difference between us at 18 and Georgia at 16. If we beat Bama today, our rpi vue will go up 0.0015 points. That would only move us up to 16 as ND is 0.0020 points ahead of us.

Precisely. We desperately need more games against UT or teams that have played UT to see a meaningful bump. Root for Gator to beat Pig so we get them again, and then hope for UT in the finals (Vandy would work too but I want UT).

Anyway, I wish I had the confidence of D1 / other projectors and even the announcers last night during the LSU game, which pretty much all have us as a lock top 8 regardless of today. I'm about 50/50 on top 8 at the moment.

Here is the RPI at the start of play today. I'm confident that we're a host at this point but not that we're a national seed.

How much of a jump would we have if we made it to the sec tourney championship only to lose to UT?

I don't know. It depends on who we play to get to that final. But losing to Tennessee wouldn't hurt much at all.

One good thing for us today is that Bama's RPI is up to #41. A win today should give us a nice little bump.

Play and lose to UT, we are top 10. Probably not that different for a win. RPI is just broken this year. There are too many who have figured out A) how important it is and 2) how to exploit the math.

That and UT domination and crushed a weak system into a mess.

GarryowenAg said:

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How much of a jump would we have if we made it to the sec tourney championship only to lose to UT?

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Win vs. BAMA will probably move us up to around 16.
Win vs. UF/Arky (doesn't matter who) will probably move us up to around 14.
Loss to UT will probably drop us down to around 15.

That is my best guess looking at everything. I would put a +/- 1 spots on each of the predictions due to the effect of non-sec games.

Win today and we'll move up to like # 16, lose and we'll fall down to around # 25. Not that big of an upside to play Bama but a rather large downsize risk. But we ''aint friggin' losing.