Clearly we don't know what's going on behind the scenes but that doesn't seem unlikely to me. Right or wrong, I fully expect CJ (or, more accurately, his agent) to push for a deal in excess of what Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love got. And I could see the Texans offering slightly below what those guys got (which is about $50 mill/year). That all seems about right for the NFL in 2026.

I actually don't mind CJ betting on himself…I THINK he will play better this year, the key for him will be how he plays in the playoffs. Last season he was a slightly above average QB, according to EPA, and dog s*** in the playoffs. The OL and run game was terrible last year, if it is closer to average, then CJ should be in for a good year and he will get paid.

He can have a 40 TD, 8 INT season with 4,000 yards, but if he sucks in the playoffs again, that's really all that will matter.

If you had to call your qb for 2027 would you rather it be Baker Mayfield or CJ Stroud?

texagbeliever said:

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If you had to call your qb for 2027 would you rather it be Baker Mayfield or CJ Stroud?

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Baker wasn't great down the stretch last year, but at this point in time, it is a coin toss.

Baker. He doesn't choke in the playoffs.

64.5% passer, 1338 yards, 12 td's, 3 int's, 1 fumble, 3 years in playoffs.

Stroud:

60.3% passer, 1438 yards, 6 td's, 6 int's, 2 fumbles. 3 years in playoffs

I dont think many qbs do that much better with the Texans oline, running backs (21 carries for 41 yards) and the top three pass catchers are: Higgins, Schultz and Hutchinson.

I do lean towards Baker because I think if your team goes down 2 tds he will be the preferred guy to get you back.

MelvinUdall said:

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texagbeliever said:

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If you had to call your qb for 2027 would you rather it be Baker Mayfield or CJ Stroud?

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Baker wasn't great down the stretch last year, but at this point in time, it is a coin toss.

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He was also very hurt 2nd half of the year. The first half of the season he was playing top 5 level ball.

texagbeliever said:

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I dont think many qbs do that much better with the Texans oline, running backs (21 carries for 41 yards) and the top three pass catchers are: Higgins, Schultz and Hutchinson.

I do lean towards Baker because I think if your team goes down 2 tds he will be the preferred guy to get you back.

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He's also more of a rushing threat than Stroud.

texagbeliever said:

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I dont think many qbs do that much better with the Texans oline, running backs (21 carries for 41 yards) and the top three pass catchers are: Higgins, Schultz and Hutchinson.

I do lean towards Baker because I think if your team goes down 2 tds he will be the preferred guy to get you back.

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That is a fair assessment on Baker, can't say I disagree.

texagbeliever said:

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MelvinUdall said:

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texagbeliever said:

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If you had to call your qb for 2027 would you rather it be Baker Mayfield or CJ Stroud?

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Baker wasn't great down the stretch last year, but at this point in time, it is a coin toss.

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He was also very hurt 2nd half of the year. The first half of the season he was playing top 5 level ball.

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I don't disagree, but he also had a better OL, and a much better run game. Stroud just hasn't had that type of help, maybe is rookie year.

Baker because he doesn't play scared/stupid.

I've said for months that Baker would be our 2027 qb. It just makes the most sense. Only thing that would change that is a Super Bowl run this year which I just don't believe Stroud has in him.

Or health for Baker

He hasn't really been an iron man lately

And Cj plays like he has a permanent concussion.

CJ has more playoff wins than…

Dak
Herbert
Baker
Lawrence
Love

Why would he accept less salary than them?

Texan_Aggie said:

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CJ has more playoff wins than…

Dak
Herbert
Baker
Lawrence
Love

Why would he accept less salary than them?

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Because there are 22 starters on the field… and one of those playoff wins is against the Steelers last year where the defense scored more than the offense. Another was against the Chargers which was a Kaimi special again.

In those two games the defense has given up a grand total of 18 points combined. The defense in those games has scored 22 points.

CJ threw an INT and fumbled five times against the Steelers. He played pretty well in the Chargers win, but an INT and another fumble. Maybe you're trying to hang your hat on beating the Browns and old man Flacco rookie year?

That's not even discussing that Patriots debacle.

And if you had higher KPIs than your coworkers, would you accept less?

He has left a lot to be desired, no doubt, but he has the cards to demand a higher contract.

re: baker vs stroud, I think the whole problem with both guys is that at their best, they've had stretches where they appeared to be unstoppable all pro level qbs. and not just for a game or two, either. which makes it so much more frustrating that despite that, they've also demonstrated the ability to play like they've got money on their opponent, with turnovers and inexcusable mental mistakes over and over and over again. yet with all that experience under their belts, is anyone really comfortable trying to identify which version of either we'll see next season?

If the texans are going to move on from stroud, i'd prefer to replace him with someone that doesn't present the exact same consistency issues and potential meltdown multi turnover games while the upside looks less and less like it's coming back.

Ill grant you baker doesn't look quite as "i just got new hands this morning" as stroud can at his worst, but I trust baker much less to be on the field. stroud has missed some time too, but at least some of that is on the guys we had pretending to be offensive lineman allowing him to be teed off on so many times. even with that, stroud has at the very least proven he can take a beating. meanwhile it seems like any time baker gets hit you're holding your breath waiting to learn how many games he's going to miss

between stroud or baker i'd rather just stick with stroud. i'd prefer any new qb is targeted in the draft. particularly with the talent in the 27 draft. if stroud isn't worth a new contract, the last thing i want to see is a similar but maybe slightly less absurd contract offered to a guy like baker.

Team KPI. And singular. Not plural.

Texan_Aggie said:

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And if you had higher KPIs than your coworkers, would you accept less?

He has left a lot to be desired, no doubt, but he has the cards to demand a higher contract.

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This is a surefire way to over pay bad talent and under pay (and lose) good talent. It is like having a bad boss who gets a big bonus but the star employee who did the work gets snubbed, so he goes elsewhere. Now the department sucks.

Texan_Aggie said:

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And if you had higher KPIs than your coworkers, would you accept less?

He has left a lot to be desired, no doubt, but he has the cards to demand a higher contract.

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I'd question what KPIs were being reviewed if you're saying Stroud's are higher than his coworkers

Stroud's level of play has declined every season since his rookie year and his 2 playoff games were arguably the worst 2-game stretch by a starting QB in post-season history.

You have to admire a guy with the balls to tell the team, "Yeah, $50 million a year won't cut it."

CharleyKerfeld said:

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Stroud's level of play has declined every season since his rookie year and his 2 playoff games were arguably the worst 2-game stretch by a starting QB in post-season history.

You have to admire a guy with the balls to tell the team, "Yeah, $50 million a year won't cut it."

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I mean yeah… but the market is the market.

ATM9000 said:

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CharleyKerfeld said:

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Stroud's level of play has declined every season since his rookie year and his 2 playoff games were arguably the worst 2-game stretch by a starting QB in post-season history.

You have to admire a guy with the balls to tell the team, "Yeah, $50 million a year won't cut it."

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I mean yeah… but the market is the market.

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The Seahawks won a superbowl structured alot like the Texans while paying their QB $35 MM a year. You cant have both an elite defense and a top QB. The budget just isnt there. Or you have to be an old team like the Rams.

Would you take Sam Darnold or CJ Stroud?

texagbeliever said:

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ATM9000 said:

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CharleyKerfeld said:

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Stroud's level of play has declined every season since his rookie year and his 2 playoff games were arguably the worst 2-game stretch by a starting QB in post-season history.

You have to admire a guy with the balls to tell the team, "Yeah, $50 million a year won't cut it."

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I mean yeah… but the market is the market.

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The Seahawks won a superbowl structured alot like the Texans while paying their QB $35 MM a year. You cant have both an elite defense and a top QB. The budget just isnt there. Or you have to be an old team like the Rams.

Would you take Sam Darnold or CJ Stroud?

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Exactly…and that's why Baker is considered the best option at this point for 2027. He'll be a guy going forward on short term $30-$35 million per year deals. At his age, that'll be his market and it'll be perfect for this team with this defense.

CharleyKerfeld said:

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Stroud's level of play has declined every season since his rookie year and his 2 playoff games were arguably the worst 2-game stretch by a starting QB in post-season history.

You have to admire a guy with the balls to tell the team, "Yeah, $50 million a year won't cut it."

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Aside from the playoffs, he actually had a better year in 2025 than 2024.

These are the starting QB's I would take CJ over. There aren't many.

• Atlanta Falcons: Tua Tagovailoa
• Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young
• Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson
• Miami Dolphins: Malik Willis
• New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough
• Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers (he's a shell of his former self)

We need a game manager who doesn't turn the ball over with this defense.

Yay, he had a good regular season. The issue is that in both playoff games last year, he was atrocious. He had 5 fumbles in the first game (they recovered 3) and 4 int's in the second game. You can't have nearly 10 turnovers from your QB in any game, much less a playoff game, even with this defense.

He just needs to be a game manager and not turn the ball over. If he does that in the playoffs, he'll be fine.

IMHO, he just seems to be another Ohio State QB who is slightly better.

MelvinUdall said:

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CharleyKerfeld said:

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Stroud's level of play has declined every season since his rookie year and his 2 playoff games were arguably the worst 2-game stretch by a starting QB in post-season history.

You have to admire a guy with the balls to tell the team, "Yeah, $50 million a year won't cut it."

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Aside from the playoffs, he actually had a better year in 2025 than 2024.

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Unfortunately, the regular season championship rings haven't arrived yet.

texagbeliever said:

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ATM9000 said:

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CharleyKerfeld said:

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Stroud's level of play has declined every season since his rookie year and his 2 playoff games were arguably the worst 2-game stretch by a starting QB in post-season history.

You have to admire a guy with the balls to tell the team, "Yeah, $50 million a year won't cut it."

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I mean yeah… but the market is the market.

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The Seahawks won a superbowl structured alot like the Texans while paying their QB $35 MM a year. You cant have both an elite defense and a top QB. The budget just isnt there. Or you have to be an old team like the Rams.

Would you take Sam Darnold or CJ Stroud?

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Not relevant to the fact that CJ likely still could command more than $50m a year in the open market.

It's not about my preference. It's really not that ballsy for CJ to ask for what he could command in the market.

CharleyKerfeld said:

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MelvinUdall said:

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CharleyKerfeld said:

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Stroud's level of play has declined every season since his rookie year and his 2 playoff games were arguably the worst 2-game stretch by a starting QB in post-season history.

You have to admire a guy with the balls to tell the team, "Yeah, $50 million a year won't cut it."

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Aside from the playoffs, he actually had a better year in 2025 than 2024.

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Unfortunately, the regular season championship rings haven't arrived yet.

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Where in any of my post did I say otherwise…

zooguy96 said:

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These are the starting QB's I would take CJ over. There aren't many.

• Atlanta Falcons: Tua Tagovailoa
• Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young
• Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson
• Miami Dolphins: Malik Willis
• New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough
• Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers (he's a shell of his former self)

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This isn't real. Can't be

Ag_07 said:

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zooguy96 said:

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These are the starting QB's I would take CJ over. There aren't many.

• Atlanta Falcons: Tua Tagovailoa
• Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young
• Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson
• Miami Dolphins: Malik Willis
• New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough
• Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers (he's a shell of his former self)

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This isn't real. Can't be

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Meaning I'd take CJ over these QB's. Not I would take these QB's over CJ. Why can't this be real?

ATM9000 said:

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texagbeliever said:

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ATM9000 said:

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CharleyKerfeld said:

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Stroud's level of play has declined every season since his rookie year and his 2 playoff games were arguably the worst 2-game stretch by a starting QB in post-season history.

You have to admire a guy with the balls to tell the team, "Yeah, $50 million a year won't cut it."

---

I mean yeah… but the market is the market.

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The Seahawks won a superbowl structured alot like the Texans while paying their QB $35 MM a year. You cant have both an elite defense and a top QB. The budget just isnt there. Or you have to be an old team like the Rams.

Would you take Sam Darnold or CJ Stroud?

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Not relevant to the fact that CJ likely still could command more than $50m a year in the open market.

It's not about my preference. It's really not that ballsy for CJ to ask for what he could command in the market.

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We will see. I dont think he is rated that highly.

Who would be in the market for CJ?
Teams likely looking for a new qb next year:
Browns, Cardinals, Panthers, Steelers, Rams, Titans, Jets, Bucs, Texans, Vikings

QBs on the market CJ, Baker, Brisset, Geno, Mac Jones, Cousins.

Likely 6 QBs will go in round 1 on 2027. So that leaves maybe 2-3 teams that would be interested in Stroud. I doubt the Cardinals would go for it. Maybe the Steelers? The Rams have their first round pick from this year so they are unlikely.

So who is going to pay for CJ?

zooguy96 said:

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Ag_07 said:

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zooguy96 said:

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These are the starting QB's I would take CJ over. There aren't many.

• Atlanta Falcons: Tua Tagovailoa
• Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young
• Cleveland Browns: Deshaun Watson
• Miami Dolphins: Malik Willis
• New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough
• Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers (he's a shell of his former self)

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This isn't real. Can't be

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Meaning I'd take CJ over these QB's. Not I would take these QB's over CJ. Why can't this be real?

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I think you phrased it in an odd way. I think id take Shough with his upside at this point.