NV SOS just put out a "timeline" on how long it will take to receive election results. (Be prepared to wait.)

Ballots accepted through Sat (!) if postmarked on EDay.

This delay is embarrassing and a security concern. Once the election is over, election officials should have… pic.twitter.com/p3P1rBfKFx

— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) November 5, 2024

agsalaska said:

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Yea. Ok.

I'm sitting down to dinner and am not going to get in that debate. But it should be pretty obvious. Agree that it's a lot of low propensity voters. But you really think we not only found these voters but talked them into voting early. Without voting ourselves. That doesn't make any sense.

And the anecdotes are off the charts. The lines in Temple Tx this week voting early were not new voters.

We will see tomorrow.

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txags92 said:

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agsalaska said:

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Yea. Ok.

I'm sitting down to dinner and am not going to get in that debate. But it should be pretty obvious. Agree that it's a lot of low propensity voters. But you really think we not only found these voters but talked them into voting early. Without voting ourselves. That doesn't make any sense.

And the anecdotes are off the charts. The lines in Temple Tx this week voting early were not new voters.

We will see tomorrow.

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You are ignoring the information people are putting in front of you. Scott Presler's organization (among others) has spent MONTHS signing up new voters, knocking on a million doors of new/low propensity voters in PA for example and talking them through how to request a ballot, following up to make sure they filled it out and returned it. So yes, the R ground game is outcompeting the D ground game for low propensity voters in the swing states. The R turnout is not down from 2020, it is even or ahead, and the difference is coming from those new/low P voters, leaving the people who vote frequently on ED to do so again. The D margins in the swing states are down because they are not turning out their low P voters at the same level they previously did.

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Matt Hooper said:

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I realize there is a rational element of keep your voters motivated to vote now that we are at Election Day.

But - as a layman who's already voted, there is something that just does not make sense.

1. Across multiple states (FL, GA, NC, PA, WI. MI, NV, AZ) republicans are at or slightly above 2020 early vote totals (in person and mail). Democrats are between 75% and 80% of their 202) vote totals.

2. The 2020 race was won (SP Edit) by a small number of votes in GA, WI, PA, MI and AZ.

3. Unless you believe R votes on Election Day are going to woefully under perform relative to 2020 (despite clear voter enthusiasm in the early vote) OR D voters are going to outperform on Election Day relative to 2020 (and out performed to 115% to 120% of that number) - then there is math problem with this race being as close as 2020.
Where do the catch up votes come from to make this race close like 2020?

This ignores greater R voter registration for 2024 potential voter pool.
This ignores R apparent better performance with Latino voters - not proven yet; only poll speculation.

These things don't seem like they can co-exist together. Maybe I am missing something - but there seems to be meaningful math whole for team D.

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agsalaska said:

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[Step back and take a breather. You don't want to be banned on Election Day -- Staff]

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mslags97 said:

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Guys…..

One last time….

The Republicans early voting numbers are not any higher than they were in 2020. They are right at the same level. Maybe a little higher. Maybe a little lower. But we are talking 1-2% points either way….

That doesn't indicate in any way, nor is there any reason to believe the R's are eating into the ED vote….

The support and enthusiasm for Trump is at an all time high. The party is as unified as it has been since the days of Reagan…. Why would there be any reason to believe his vote totals are going to be lower????

It's like BAS but on the election scale.

Dems are going to have to have massive improvement over their ED turnout from 2020…. To go along with R's not turning out like 2020…. Neither of which is likely to happen.

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Prosperdick said:

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will25u said:

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Really would be nice to sticky a post that is always visible explaining why Rs are NOT cannibalizing ED votes.

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I believe I've made that point on this thread but you have to realize there are posters who are just now clicking on this thread and think "hey, I've got an idea that is so astute I bet nobody else has thought of, now just follow along with me, what if early voters are taking away from election day voters"....whoa, mind blown!!!

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Nevada Early Voting Update - FINAL

Nevada just posted its final evening SoS report (there will be one tomorrow with a very small additional amount of mail) and our "go into election day" numbers are:

🔴Republicans - 410,179
🔵Democrats - 367,941
🟡Others - 310,972

Over the… pic.twitter.com/lgSaWFmGmR

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) November 5, 2024

mslags97 said:

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Dems are going to have to have massive improvement over their ED turnout from 2020…. To go along with R's not turning out like 2020…. Neither of which is likely to happen.

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mslags97 said:

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Guys…..

One last time….

The Republicans early voting numbers are not any higher than they were in 2020. They are right at the same level. Maybe a little higher. Maybe a little lower. But we are talking 1-2% points either way….

...

The support and enthusiasm for Trump is at an all time high. The party is as unified as it has been since the days of Reagan…. Why would there be any reason to believe his vote totals are going to be lower????

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