This has me worried. He has connections and for him to say he is hearing Wisconsin is tough, is concerning. It would all come down to Pennsylvania.

BREAKING Inside the Trump campaign they're breaking down the race as follows. He wins Georgia, Arizona, NC, Nevada. Michigan is really tough, Wisconsin, tough but less so. BUT they think they have the momentum in Pa. The Dem ground game is great BUT it failed in the early voting…

— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) November 4, 2024

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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He says the key for Democrats there is turning out the inner city vote, which they are pretty good at.

Minneapolis-Saint Paul will decide the vote for Minnesotans as it always does because the rest of the state is red but very sparsely populated.

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What about the Iron Range? Isn't that section of MN trending more red?

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It's trending more red. As it St Louis County (Duluth's county - big geographic area).

But the DFL/Dems continue to press into the formerly Red suburbs of the Metro - especially the elite wealthy ones on west side of metro - Maple Grove, Wayzata, Minnetonka, Plymouth, Edina, Chanhassen, Chaska, Deephaven, Excelsior, and Shorewood. It's full of UM and UMDuluth grads who were indoctrinated and have moved back to the communities they were raised in, and turned it leftist.

Interesting because the polls have him ahead more in Wisconsin than PA

Captn_Ag05 said:

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This has me worried. He has connections and for him to say he is hearing Wisconsin is tough, is concerning. It would all come down to Pennsylvania.

BREAKING Inside the Trump campaign they're breaking down the race as follows. He wins Georgia, Arizona, NC, Nevada. Michigan is really tough, Wisconsin, tough but less so. BUT they think they have the momentum in Pa. The Dem ground game is great BUT it failed in the early voting…

— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) November 4, 2024

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To what extent does gamesmanship come in to play with stuff like this?

Yeah, with an update like that, everyone pounding there chest about an EC landslide better take a breath. That is troublesome.

rathAG05 said:

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I'm not really digging into number here, but does that math make sense at all?

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Here are my calculations if you want to review (I had to revise them slightly as I didn't account for the 32000 "other" voters in 2020 totals):

I did this quickly so let me know if you see mistakes:

[url=https://imgbb.com/][url=https://imgbb.com/][/url][/url]

Thanks.

It was a few months back but I recalled that R registrations in the Iron Range were increasing rapidly. Just never followed up to see if they overcame the D registrations.

Not great for VA itself but this guy knows it really well, and if she only takes VA by 4, she can't possibly win it, imho:

Final Christian Crystal Ball model for Virginia:

🔴 Donald Trump: 47.62%
🔵 Kamala Harris: 52.38%

Harris by 4.75% https://t.co/k46ErXusz1

— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) November 4, 2024

Based on all the early voting returns I've seen in here, this is how I'm thinking it'll shake out. Think Wisconsin will be the closest margin.

Mark Halperin said dems would be somewhere between surprised and shocked if she won Wisconsin.

AggieP18 said:

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Mark Halperin said dems would be somewhere between surprised and shocked if she won Wisconsin.

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I remember that too but it was a couple days ago I think so not sure if he would change that prognostication today. Seems most polls now have WI leaning red but still close.

Michigan is weird to me. Lot of union members that were supposedly for Trump and the Muslim vote seems headed for Stein. If Dem turnout with blacks and others is lower in Detroit, I could see Trump winning there too but seems like the longest shot of the Rust Belt as most polls have had Kamala leading by a couple points.

Update from Nevada via "What are the Odds with Barnes and Baris," which I have running the background at work.

Dems netted 64 votes today from Nevada mail-ins... eating into the @43K IPEV/mail-in GOP lead by (according to my math) about 0.0015%.

Cannot corroborate this info from any other sources.

1836er said:

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Dems netted 64 votes today from Nevada mail-ins... eating into the @43K IPEV/mail-in GOP lead by (according to my math) about 0.0015%.

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Hey now... Walz said it best... they are running a 2 minute offense and it's OK to get a few inches at a time!

Both sides will be circulating misinformation tomorrow about how high turnout is in their strongholds.

Even officials bullshit. It happens every year.

Most of it is anecdotal or wishful thinking.

Wait for real official numbers to draw much from it.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 4, 2024

Good advice from Rich.

ETA - Sorry mods, I just noticed a curse word although it's fairly tame. Feel free to remove if you'd like. I'm not trying to bypass anything.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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He says the key for Democrats there is turning out the inner city vote, which they are pretty good at.

Minneapolis-Saint Paul will decide the vote for Minnesotans as it always does because the rest of the state is red but very sparsely populated.

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What about the Iron Range? Isn't that section of MN trending more red?

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I was about to mention that, there is always one or two counties in the north western part of Minnesota that goes blue for whatever reason.

Edit: rest of post deleted. Cannot risk a ban on election day!

"Disastrous, but not super disastrous." LOL, ok Mark.

“My sense of the early vote is it is not as disastrous as it was in the first three days for the Democrats, but it's still really bad,” says @MarkHalperin. “Tons of senior Democrats are in the states. They're doorknocking -- people who ran presidential campaigns are literally… pic.twitter.com/hKK4e2BM2L

— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) November 4, 2024

2023NCAggies said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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He says the key for Democrats there is turning out the inner city vote, which they are pretty good at.

Minneapolis-Saint Paul will decide the vote for Minnesotans as it always does because the rest of the state is red but very sparsely populated.

---

What about the Iron Range? Isn't that section of MN trending more red?

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I was about to mention that, there is always one or two counties in the north western part of Minnesota that goes blue for whatever reason.

Edit: rest of post deleted. Cannot risk a ban on election day!

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Ha tell me about re: your edit. It's like juggling with hand grenades

4 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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This has me worried. He has connections and for him to say he is hearing Wisconsin is tough, is concerning. It would all come down to Pennsylvania.

BREAKING Inside the Trump campaign they're breaking down the race as follows. He wins Georgia, Arizona, NC, Nevada. Michigan is really tough, Wisconsin, tough but less so. BUT they think they have the momentum in Pa. The Dem ground game is great BUT it failed in the early voting…

— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) November 4, 2024

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Of all states, Michigan is slitting their own throats if they vote for Harris.

Of all of the swing states, they have the most reason to vote for Trump.

It's amazing how stupid some people can be.

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Tribalism

I realize there is a rational element of keep your voters motivated to vote now that we are at Election Day.

But - as a layman who's already voted, there is something that just does not make sense.

1. Across multiple states (FL, GA, NC, PA, WI. MI, NV, AZ) republicans are at or slightly above 2020 early vote totals (in person and mail). Democrats are between 75% and 80% of their 202) vote totals.

2. The 2020 race was won (SP Edit) by a small number of votes in GA, WI, PA, MI and AZ.

3. Unless you believe R votes on Election Day are going to woefully under perform relative to 2020 (despite clear voter enthusiasm in the early vote) OR D voters are going to outperform on Election Day relative to 2020 (and out performed to 115% to 120% of that number) - then there is math problem with this race being as close as 2020.
Where do the catch up votes come from to make this race close like 2020?

This ignores greater R voter registration for 2024 potential voter pool.
This ignores R apparent better performance with Latino voters - not proven yet; only poll speculation.

These things don't seem like they can co-exist together. Maybe I am missing something - but there seems to be meaningful math whole for team D.

4 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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This has me worried. He has connections and for him to say he is hearing Wisconsin is tough, is concerning. It would all come down to Pennsylvania.

BREAKING Inside the Trump campaign they're breaking down the race as follows. He wins Georgia, Arizona, NC, Nevada. Michigan is really tough, Wisconsin, tough but less so. BUT they think they have the momentum in Pa. The Dem ground game is great BUT it failed in the early voting…

— Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) November 4, 2024

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Of all states, Michigan is slitting their own throats if they vote for Harris.

Of all of the swing states, they have the most reason to vote for Trump.

It's amazing how stupid some people can be.

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Don't you know Obama saved Detroit

Maricopa County officials just announced bad news for Kamala Harris & the Democrats.

27k mail-in ballots arrived with mismatched signatures, and 15k have been cured, meaning 12,000 ballots will NOT be counted unless they're cured.

Mail-in voting is the Democrat's… pic.twitter.com/L5ycLyoxOY

— George (@BehizyTweets) November 4, 2024

Don't put stock in Gasparino. He was tweeting Trump might drop out in 2020 because the polls were bad and his ego was hurting...I wouldn't believe his sources

Quote:

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Of all states, Michigan is slitting their own throats if they vote for Harris.


Of all of the swing states, they have the most reason to vote for Trump.

It's amazing how stupid some people can be.

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The oil and gas workers in PA might have an equal case to be made there.

Twice an Aggie said:

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Don't put stock in Gasparino. He was tweeting Trump might drop out in 2020 because the polls were bad and his ego was hurting...I wouldn't believe his sources

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Disagree. His ontacts on Wall Street are dep and decades old. If the smart money on Wall Street are planning for a Trump Presidency with the Senate, if not also the House, that is telling.

Wall Street firms hire their own pollsters for internal polls for just that reason. They'll game plan for either but hire their own pollsters to get a feel for which one needs to be implemented. They don't turn on a dime. Their hedges and bets require information. These strategies are for multiple years going forward, not just six months.

I should clarify. His comments made about Wall Street I believe. His comments about states based on sources in Trumps campaign I don't put much stock in based on past claims from these sources. We will all find out who was plugged in and had the best sources...or I guess he could be pushing people to the polls? But I do agree I was overly broad

Oh. My mistake. Sorry, didn't mean to land on you with both feet that way.

Guess we were talking a bit past each other.

All good.

Agreed. Really value your updates and insight!

Sorry the link won't post correctly because he is still live, so I'm giving you a summary. Will try to post the link when they finish.

Mark Halperin is live now on Two-Way with some guests.

He says the Trump people are telling him they think independent voters are mostly men and are moving toward Trump at a very high rate. They are very confident. He did say there was one Republican strategist who was frustrated at the early celebratory talk. Overall the Republicans are very pleased with how early voting has gone. Halperin says he thinks after the election everyone will discover how the Republicans were able to pull off the early reg and vote stuff via tricks up their sleeve.

The Democrats are saying they think the independent voters have swung toward Harris and are happy with the female turnout.

A journalist is on saying he thinks what hurt the Democrats the most was when they had a bunch of anti-Trump sentiment after January 6th, they went after him too hard and made him a sympathetic figure to some people. When you are claiming someone as a threat to democracy yet you are trying to keep that other person off the ballot and are going after him clearly for political purposes it's stalled a lot of their momentum and got a lot of people thinking.

A Democrat affiliated guy says he thinks Trump lost a lot of momentum in the last week or two. He says he thinks Trump won 2016 in the last 2 weeks, and if 2020 had been delayed by one week he thinks Trump would have won. But he thinks Trump stalled and may have peaked too early this year.

Overall though, the sentiment is Harris is behind and is going to need a huge election day in Pennsylvania.

PA Ballots Returned 11/04: (4pm Update)

Dems: 1,014,744 (55.4%) +17,294 from 11.04
GOP: 602,601 (32.9%) +15,055 from 11.04
Indie: 212,901 (11.6%) +7,578 from 11.04

Change from end of 2022:
GOP: +338,951
Dem: +157,464

Change from end of 2020:
GOP: -15,637
Dem: -703,982 https://t.co/xgK5ag0CdK

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 5, 2024