NoVa votes more in the last week because they put out quadruple the polling stations, fyi.
***Official Early Vote Tracking***
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I didn't know that but makes sense. Thanks for the information.nortex97 said:
NoVa votes more in the last week because they put out quadruple the polling stations, fyi.
MN Thread. A lot of assumptions, but this guy is pretty good in MN.
2024 EV Turnout as a % of 2020 EV Turnout
— mngander (@mngander92) November 4, 2024
Statewide - 55.7%
CD1 - 51%
CD2 - 62%
CD3 - 61%
CD4 - 50%
CD5 - 48%
CD6 - 62%
CD7 - 56%
CD8 - 57% (2)
We have around 1M votes in by EV and let's assume that most of CD 4 and 5 are vote bank for Dems at 80/20. That's 0.6 x 240K = 60K net banked. The Dem vote bank was ~350K total in those 2 districts in 2020. (4)
— mngander (@mngander92) November 4, 2024
Are you sure he's a lefty? He signs off with Let's flip MN Red for the first time since 1972!!.
Hmm... For some reason I remembered him being a lefty. Guess I can't keep my people on X straight. Old age maybe.SwigAg11 said:
Are you sure he's a lefty? He signs off with Let's flip MN Red for the first time since 1972!!.
I work in defense and we just completed our weekly staff meeting, which includes our Washington Ops team leader. His prediction was Trump and republicans take Senate BUT lose the House.
A guy that has the pulse of things in DC. Probably not worth anything, but thought I would share his prediction.
A guy that has the pulse of things in DC. Probably not worth anything, but thought I would share his prediction.
What did he say about President?
"I will proudly explain to that audience and beyond why I think it's absolutely essential that he win this election..."@MegynKelly breaks the news that she'll be speaking at Trump's rally tonight in Pittsburgh, PA. WATCH: pic.twitter.com/YZS4eV5MEs
— The Megyn Kelly Show (@MegynKellyShow) November 4, 2024
Megyn is on the team now.
Trump
I can't get it to work at work... so... Anyone?
ETA: Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.
Senate: Rosen, 50 percent; Brown, 45 percent; others and none of the above, 5 percent.
ETA: Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.
Senate: Rosen, 50 percent; Brown, 45 percent; others and none of the above, 5 percent.
Predictions!https://t.co/6LUYzarArw
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2024
Would be biggest upset of the night.aggiehawg said:And he lost to Youngkin in 2021. If that is the election they are referring to.LMCane said:
some more good newsHarris is going into Election Day with a smaller Virginia "blue firewall" than Terry McAuliffe had.
— Virginia Project (@ProjectVirginia) November 4, 2024
Praying.
I feel bad for most Virginians. They are having their state infested with overpaid government bureaucrats and lobbyists in NoVa.
Seems like he knows.will25u said:
I can't get it to work at work... so... Anyone?Predictions!https://t.co/6LUYzarArw
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2024
Mostly Foggy Recollection
Joined:
Oct 5, 2020
Posts:
7,746
How long do you want to ignore this user?
He knows Harry Reid's machine will brow beat anyone who hasn't turned in a ballot. It's what they do, or they fire them.
He also says neither side can figure out who will win, and he's just going with a gut feeling the Reid Machine will find just enough.
He also says neither side can figure out who will win, and he's just going with a gut feeling the Reid Machine will find just enough.
I still don't understand why states take mail ballots after election day. If your ballot is not in by election day, sorry charlie. You've had probably close to a month to mail it in.
I lived in MN-03 from 2017 to 2022.will25u said:
MN Thread. A lot of assumptions, but this guy is pretty good in MN.2024 EV Turnout as a % of 2020 EV Turnout
— mngander (@mngander92) November 4, 2024
Statewide - 55.7%
CD1 - 51%
CD2 - 62%
CD3 - 61%
CD4 - 50%
CD5 - 48%
CD6 - 62%
CD7 - 56%
CD8 - 57% (2)We have around 1M votes in by EV and let's assume that most of CD 4 and 5 are vote bank for Dems at 80/20. That's 0.6 x 240K = 60K net banked. The Dem vote bank was ~350K total in those 2 districts in 2020. (4)
— mngander (@mngander92) November 4, 2024
When I got there, squishy RINO Eric Paulsen was the Congressman. He was defeated by Dean Phillips in 2018. Now, one of the few leftist friends I had there (Kelly Morrison) is seemingly a shoe in to win Phillips vacated seat.
I know this district well. I want MN to flip red, but the CD-3 district is like a plus 7 Dem district and they have early voted in excess of 60%. Mngander should factor that district as well into his turnout math, as that changes the script in favor of the DFL (MN Dems) significantly.
I hope I am wrong about this, but I see MN being a Harris +2 to +5 hold.
Yeah, that NV Supreme Court decision to allow ballots WITHOUT A POSTMARK up to 3 days AFTER election day to be counted is pretty inexplicable to me. Not sure what the rationale is for thinking those ballots would be legit.will25u said:
I still don't understand why states take mail ballots after election day. If your ballot is not in by election day, sorry charlie. You've had probably close to a month to mail it in.
Because the US Post Office is the least efficient "company" in the US.txags92 said:Yeah, that NV Supreme Court decision to allow ballots WITHOUT A POSTMARK up to 3 days AFTER election day to be counted is pretty inexplicable to me. Not sure what the rationale is for thinking those ballots would be legit.will25u said:
I still don't understand why states take mail ballots after election day. If your ballot is not in by election day, sorry charlie. You've had probably close to a month to mail it in.
TXAGGIES said:Because the US Post Office is the least efficient "company" in the US.txags92 said:Yeah, that NV Supreme Court decision to allow ballots WITHOUT A POSTMARK up to 3 days AFTER election day to be counted is pretty inexplicable to me. Not sure what the rationale is for thinking those ballots would be legit.will25u said:
I still don't understand why states take mail ballots after election day. If your ballot is not in by election day, sorry charlie. You've had probably close to a month to mail it in.
They don't even have to be postmarked. So it's not the usps. It's a bs allowance to cheat. Plain and simple.
If the USPS is handling them, they should have a postmark. How does a ballot without a postmark get there 3 days after election day?TXAGGIES said:Because the US Post Office is the least efficient "company" in the US.txags92 said:Yeah, that NV Supreme Court decision to allow ballots WITHOUT A POSTMARK up to 3 days AFTER election day to be counted is pretty inexplicable to me. Not sure what the rationale is for thinking those ballots would be legit.will25u said:
I still don't understand why states take mail ballots after election day. If your ballot is not in by election day, sorry charlie. You've had probably close to a month to mail it in.
will25u said:
I can't get it to work at work... so... Anyone?
ETA: Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.
Senate: Rosen, 50 percent; Brown, 45 percent; others and none of the above, 5 percent.Predictions!https://t.co/6LUYzarArw
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2024
Pure BS, it's obvious he's trying to GOT on Election Day for Dems.
He is right about AZ there are 218,000 non citizens on the rolls out there and they don't know if they can purge them in time.
Think about that AZ allowed non citizens to vote that is cheating I don't AZ goes red.
And Nevada is the story every Pres election really close than Las Vegas tips the scale blue.
Think about that AZ allowed non citizens to vote that is cheating I don't AZ goes red.
And Nevada is the story every Pres election really close than Las Vegas tips the scale blue.
He just spent two weeks saying if the Democrats don't get the Republican lead down to 20,000 (before that he said even more) by election day Trump will win NV.
Now, with the Republican lead more than twice that just hours before the election he is saying the opposite. He is full of *****
He is gambling his reputation on hoping that his prediction will gin up enough last minute Democrat enthusiasm and create enough last minute Republican demoralization to speak his prediction into existence.
And even so, he's admitting that the independent vote in NV will still have to break heavily (double digits) toward Harris for his "prediction" to come true, which neither the current polling nor recent elections suggests. In fact the polling suggests the opposite; Trump is polling better with independents in NV and in a state where the independents tend to lean Republican.
Now, with the Republican lead more than twice that just hours before the election he is saying the opposite. He is full of *****
He is gambling his reputation on hoping that his prediction will gin up enough last minute Democrat enthusiasm and create enough last minute Republican demoralization to speak his prediction into existence.
And even so, he's admitting that the independent vote in NV will still have to break heavily (double digits) toward Harris for his "prediction" to come true, which neither the current polling nor recent elections suggests. In fact the polling suggests the opposite; Trump is polling better with independents in NV and in a state where the independents tend to lean Republican.
Vance in '28
1836er said:
He just spent two weeks saying if the Democrats don't get the Republican lead down to 20,000 (before that he said even more) by election day Trump will win NV.
Now, with the Republican lead more than twice that just hours before the election he is saying the opposite. He is full of *****
He is gambling his reputation on hoping that his prediction will gin up enough last minute Democrat enthusiasm and create enough last minute Republican demoralization to speak his prediction into existence.
And even so, he's admitting that the independent vote in NV will still have to break heavily (double digits) toward Harris for his "prediction" to come true, which neither the current polling nor recent elections suggests. In fact the polling suggests the opposite; Trump is polling better with independents in NV and in a state where the independents tend to lean Republican.
Great recap!
I don't think they care.txags92 said:Yeah, that NV Supreme Court decision to allow ballots WITHOUT A POSTMARK up to 3 days AFTER election day to be counted is pretty inexplicable to me. Not sure what the rationale is for thinking those ballots would be legit.will25u said:
I still don't understand why states take mail ballots after election day. If your ballot is not in by election day, sorry charlie. You've had probably close to a month to mail it in.
TheEternalOptimist said:I lived in MN-03 from 2017 to 2022.will25u said:
MN Thread. A lot of assumptions, but this guy is pretty good in MN.2024 EV Turnout as a % of 2020 EV Turnout
— mngander (@mngander92) November 4, 2024
Statewide - 55.7%
CD1 - 51%
CD2 - 62%
CD3 - 61%
CD4 - 50%
CD5 - 48%
CD6 - 62%
CD7 - 56%
CD8 - 57% (2)We have around 1M votes in by EV and let's assume that most of CD 4 and 5 are vote bank for Dems at 80/20. That's 0.6 x 240K = 60K net banked. The Dem vote bank was ~350K total in those 2 districts in 2020. (4)
— mngander (@mngander92) November 4, 2024
When I got there, squishy RINO Eric Paulsen was the Congressman. He was defeated by Dean Phillips in 2018. Now, one of the few leftist friends I had there (Kelly Morrison) is seemingly a shoe in to win Phillips vacated seat.
I know this district well. I want MN to flip red, but the CD-3 district is like a plus 7 Dem district and they have early voted in excess of 60%. Mngander should factor that district as well into his turnout math, as that changes the script in favor of the DFL (MN Dems) significantly.
I hope I am wrong about this, but I see MN being a Harris +2 to +5 hold.
I spoke to a good friend who lives in a Minneapolis suburb a few days ago and has lived there his whole life. He said one of the reasons Minnesota has a chance to go Red is because of Walz.
He says nobody up there can stand him and that he's widely regardless as a complete idiot.
He says the key for Democrats there is turning out the inner city vote, which they are pretty good at.
Minneapolis-Saint Paul will decide the vote for Minnesotans as it always does because the rest of the state is red but very sparsely populated.
They did elect him.
more good news Georgia voting
HUGE election integrity victory in Georgia.
— Michael Whatley (@ChairmanWhatley) November 4, 2024
Democrat-run Cobb County wanted to accept 3,000 absentee ballots AFTER the Election Day deadline. We took this case to the Georgia Supreme Court.
We just got word that we WON the case. Election Day is Election Day — not the week…
Well, if a significant number of those 218,000 non-citizens actually vote, then Trump will have legitimate grounds to challenge. And those voters can go to jail.Apertude said:
He is right about AZ there are 218,000 non citizens on the rolls out there and they don't know if they can purge them in time.
Think about that AZ allowed non citizens to vote that is cheating I don't AZ goes red.
And Nevada is the story every Pres election really close than Las Vegas tips the scale blue.
What about the Iron Range? Isn't that section of MN trending more red?Quote:
He says the key for Democrats there is turning out the inner city vote, which they are pretty good at.
Minneapolis-Saint Paul will decide the vote for Minnesotans as it always does because the rest of the state is red but very sparsely populated.
correct that is the implicit pointaggiehawg said:And he lost to Youngkin in 2021. If that is the election they are referring to.LMCane said:
some more good newsHarris is going into Election Day with a smaller Virginia "blue firewall" than Terry McAuliffe had.
— Virginia Project (@ProjectVirginia) November 4, 2024
that in the last statewide election in VA they had fewer banked democrat votes than they do today
and that was Youngkin and not Trump running.
the closer the race is in VA - means the better odds we have of winning North Carolina.
Alright everyone, here are the final total maps on a grand scale so you can see what I have. I appreciate everyone's input and enthusiasm (even on the other side).
— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) November 4, 2024
Overall, I hope to be right based on the data, national/state fundamentals, and intuition. I have no issues with… pic.twitter.com/IsedihNCwP
The dude has a trans kid. Picking Trump would have been like poison. I'm pretty sure he just couldn't make himself believe it will happen. I think it will be close unless indy's are split or break GOP. If they do... Katie bar the door.
To put his pecentages in perspective, if the total Nevada turnout is equal to 2020 then he is saying Harris would win by 4,120 votes. If it is 90% total turnout then he is saying she will win by 3,708 votes. If it is 80% turnout of 2020, then Harris wins by 3,296 votes.. He is anti Trump so I'd say this is as close to a Trump win from Ralson you can get.rgag12 said:will25u said:
I can't get it to work at work... so... Anyone?
ETA: Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.
Senate: Rosen, 50 percent; Brown, 45 percent; others and none of the above, 5 percent.Predictions!https://t.co/6LUYzarArw
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 4, 2024
Pure BS, it's obvious he's trying to GOT on Election Day for Dems.
I'm not really digging into number here, but does that math make sense at all?
My liberal neighbors in Chanhassen/Minnetonka loved Walz. He overwhelmingly hated outside the metro though. Billboards and signs on I-94 going towards Fargo show the hatred for him.4 said:TheEternalOptimist said:I lived in MN-03 from 2017 to 2022.will25u said:
MN Thread. A lot of assumptions, but this guy is pretty good in MN.2024 EV Turnout as a % of 2020 EV Turnout
— mngander (@mngander92) November 4, 2024
Statewide - 55.7%
CD1 - 51%
CD2 - 62%
CD3 - 61%
CD4 - 50%
CD5 - 48%
CD6 - 62%
CD7 - 56%
CD8 - 57% (2)We have around 1M votes in by EV and let's assume that most of CD 4 and 5 are vote bank for Dems at 80/20. That's 0.6 x 240K = 60K net banked. The Dem vote bank was ~350K total in those 2 districts in 2020. (4)
— mngander (@mngander92) November 4, 2024
When I got there, squishy RINO Eric Paulsen was the Congressman. He was defeated by Dean Phillips in 2018. Now, one of the few leftist friends I had there (Kelly Morrison) is seemingly a shoe in to win Phillips vacated seat.
I know this district well. I want MN to flip red, but the CD-3 district is like a plus 7 Dem district and they have early voted in excess of 60%. Mngander should factor that district as well into his turnout math, as that changes the script in favor of the DFL (MN Dems) significantly.
I hope I am wrong about this, but I see MN being a Harris +2 to +5 hold.
I spoke to a good friend who lives in a Minneapolis suburb a few days ago and has lived there his whole life. He said one of the reasons Minnesota has a chance to go Red is because of Walz.
He says nobody up there can stand him and that he's widely regardless as a complete idiot.
He says the key for Democrats there is turning out the inner city vote, which they are pretty good at.
Minneapolis-Saint Paul will decide the vote for Minnesotans as it always does because the rest of the state is red but very sparsely populated.
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