***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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LMCane
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2:53p, 10/29/24
WHAT THE WHAT??!

of course we aren't going to even come close in New Jersey but can anyone find what the last two elections were for early voting?!/

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LMCane
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In reply to will25u • 2:58p, 10/29/24

[You have been derailing this thread and the polls thread with your personal projections of a Trump loss and trolling, handwringing. That is not the focus of either of those threads. Step back and take a break. When you return, participate in the theme of the thread. Any more derails will result in more time off -- Staff]
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Edited by Staff
Cobra39
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In reply to Tony Franklins Other Shoe • 4:11p, 10/29/24
Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:
aginlakeway said:
They need to get skeletor in front of the cameras, he's even older and crotchetier and will shoot his slimy mouth off about it just to show how right he is. Never misses a moment to stroke his own ego at his advanced age.
He wants her to lose so he can be right......I think he is mad that nobody on that side is cutting him (any decent) checks anymore.

Cobra39
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4stringAg
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In reply to aginlakeway • 4:15p, 10/29/24
AG
aginlakeway said:
This is good news if true. It looked like when you first posted it there was a "misinformation tag" on it claiming Carville denied saying any of it but looks like that was removed now?
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PA24
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4:24p, 10/29/24
AG
Trump is going to win every swing state and more.

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In reply to 4stringAg • 4:26p, 10/29/24
AG
4stringAg said:
aginlakeway said:
This is good news if true. It looked like when you first posted it there was a "misinformation tag" on it claiming Carville denied saying any of it but looks like that was removed now?

Of course he will deny saying it publicly, but if you can find interviews with him from about a month ago or so, you will see where he publicly stated that he was very worried.
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Amarillo Slim
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In reply to will25u • 6:45p, 10/29/24
AG
will25u said:
In regards to pulling ads...

Harris is out of it for NC, GA, and AZ. May also be out of it for NV as well. But NV is not needed for either candidate in the most likely situations.

Harris is down to needing to run the table in the rust belt to win. If the above is true, Harris HAS to carry all three WI, MI, PA. She would win 270-268. If she loses any of those it is game over.

If the above is true for Trump, he just has to pick off one of WIMIPA. PA is looking like it will be the easiest with WI close behind.

So Harris will essentially pull most of her funding from everywhere and dump it into WIMIPA. Since she is having the most trouble in PA, look for a lot of it to go here.

If Trump can't win any of the rust belt, he has to pick off one of VA/NH/MN.

I am still thinking 312 is > 50% chance for Trump with 297 being the floor within current trends.

Still can't get complacent.

VOTE VOTE VOTE!

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!
pray you are right. We can not afford to be a one party country
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aezmvp
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6:46p, 10/29/24
He could also pick off NH. Which is funny as he'l to me.
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McInnis 03
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4:24a, 10/30/24
AG
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nortex97
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4:40a, 10/30/24
AG






And we had some debate about Amish turnout. Curious to see how they have done through EV in PA, haven't seen any swag's of their counties/cities:
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nortex97
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5:43a, 10/30/24
AG
No clue but I certainly hope this is correct:






Chad put together a long megathread on early voting last night, I'm only pasting one piece here but for those interested it covers a range of battleground states and is solidly sourced/good data imho:
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jja79
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8:25a, 10/30/24
AG
Voting this morning in Maricopa County, Arizona. My concern is the amount of data available gives the cheaters a target.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:28a, 10/30/24
AG
McInnis 03 said:


Dems in NJ vote by mail and they lead there by a large margin. Don't read into this.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:32a, 10/30/24
AG
No question.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to jja79 • 8:40a, 10/30/24
AG
jja79 said:
Voting this morning in Maricopa County, Arizona. My concern is the amount of data available gives the cheaters a target.
Can you please report back on your experiences? TIA.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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8:45a, 10/30/24
AG
Does anyone have any early voting data on the Nebraska district that has its own EV originally expected to go Democrat?
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nortex97
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8:53a, 10/30/24
AG
This is a great modeler, imho (though I am not happy about his VA model):

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aezmvp
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:03a, 10/30/24
I'll look into his stuff later. I glanced at the 2024 PA model and it has an 18% win by Trump... which I would love but will not be accurate.
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aezmvp
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:04a, 10/30/24
The Dem lead in VBM was over 250k. 5k is great to see, but not nearly enough unless Dems basically no show the day of the election. Would be HILARIOUS however.
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billydean05
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9:20a, 10/30/24
Pennsylvania deadline to request vote by mail ballots has passed. Just under 2.1 million total requested. Republicans should end up being between 32-33% of ballots returned which is well over the 30% target. Also raw number firewall will be under 500,000 which is great. Seems like Republicans are positioned well in Pennsylvania going into election day.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to billydean05 • 9:30a, 10/30/24
AG
billydean05 said:
Pennsylvania deadline to request vote by mail ballots has passed. Just under 2.1 million total requested. Republicans should end up being between 32-33% of ballots returned which is well over the 30% target. Also raw number firewall will be under 500,000 which is great. Seems like Republicans are positioned well in Pennsylvania going into election day.

2020 mail in count in PA was 2,704,147

So decrease of roughly 600K in MIB requested.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:34a, 10/30/24
AG
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Dr. Nefario
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In reply to fightingfarmer09 • 9:34a, 10/30/24
fightingfarmer09 said:
I think mail in ballots will turn into increased Dem voting here at the end. I think this is building too much false hope. It will be tight.

These analyses are also looking at mail-in ballot requests and Republicans are holding their own against the Democrats. Unless Democrats return their MIBs at a significantly higher rate than Republicans, they're not going to get a huge bump from them at the end. .
“You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.” -Abraham Lincoln

“Veganism is like communism. They’re both fine… unless you like food.”
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to Dr. Nefario • 9:50a, 10/30/24
Dr. Nefario said:
fightingfarmer09 said:
I think mail in ballots will turn into increased Dem voting here at the end. I think this is building too much false hope. It will be tight.

These analyses are also looking at mail-in ballot requests and Republicans are holding their own against the Democrats. Unless Democrats return their MIBs at a significantly higher rate than Republicans, they're not going to get a huge bump from them at the end. .
In the past what percentage of mail in ballot requests get returned compared to this cycle thus far?
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JB99
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9:54a, 10/30/24
AG
Couple of questions...

1. Can someone explain how the "firewall" term is being used in this context?

2. I read on Twitter from left leaning analyst that with early voting they are seeing more females vs. males voting, and they are betting there is more crossover voting from Rs and independents. Is this a rational argument?
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4stringAg
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In reply to JB99 • 9:59a, 10/30/24
AG
JB99 said:
Couple of questions...

1. Can someone explain how the "firewall" term is being used in this context?

2. I read on Twitter from left leaning analyst that with early voting they are seeing more females vs. males voting, and they are betting there is more crossover voting from Rs and independents. Is this a rational argument?
"firewall" is the amount of votes coming into election day. In past elections, Dems have voted early more than Republicans thus come in with a lead that has to be overcome by Republicans in the in person election day voting. It appears as if these blue firewalls are not as large this year.

According to some polls, females are outvoting males by 10 points. The theory is that females are leaning Dem. I'm not sure if this is leading to crossover voting or not. Its possible I suppose but I think a chunk of those females are truly voting R given the Rs are seeing greater early voting numbers this year.
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to 4stringAg • 10:02a, 10/30/24
4stringAg said:
JB99 said:
Couple of questions...

1. Can someone explain how the "firewall" term is being used in this context?

2. I read on Twitter from left leaning analyst that with early voting they are seeing more females vs. males voting, and they are betting there is more crossover voting from Rs and independents. Is this a rational argument?
"firewall" is the amount of votes coming into election day. In past elections, Dems have voted early more than Republicans thus come in with a lead that has to be overcome by Republicans in the in person election day voting. It appears as if these blue firewalls are not as large this year.

According to some polls, females are outvoting males by 10 points. The theory is that females are leaning Dem. I'm not sure if this is leading to crossover voting or not. Its possible I suppose but I think a chunk of those females are truly voting R given the Rs are seeing greater early voting numbers this year.
I doubt the percentage of women that are actually registered as republicans that are crossing over to vote D is very high.
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billydean05
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10:02a, 10/30/24
Pennsylvania reports early voters by party. The firewall is simply the number of democrat registered early voters minus republican registered early voters. Democrats usually have a large advantage in Pennsylvania and Nevada and small advantages in North Carolina and Georgia and Republicans usually vote more on election day to either make the state closer or win the state.
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aezmvp
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In reply to JB99 • 10:03a, 10/30/24
Firewall is the number of additional votes one side has to account for a disparity in election day (or mail) voting.

Yes more females are voting early but men tend to vote on election day. The thing that is not being noted is that the electorate where we have data is whiter and more likely to be married than normal. The independent vote will vary widely state to state and while I'm sure campaigns have an idea how that's breaking out I'm not sure we have any idea there. Finally I think Dems have built this female crossover vote in their mind to be the equivalent of the shy Trump voter in 16. In most Dem modeling I've seen they are expecting Trump to be 5 points behind on holding his base. I'm very suspicious of this based on the trends from 16 to 20 to now. That's not showing up in crosstabs and it smells like copium, but I've been wrong before.

HTH
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akm91
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 10:05a, 10/30/24
AG
The R enthusiasm is clear across the country. The increase in women voting is partially due to that enthusiasm. Hell, my wife even voted early this year.

Add 1 to the increased women voting and 1 to the Trump tally.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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fightingfarmer09
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In reply to Dr. Nefario • 10:05a, 10/30/24
Dr. Nefario said:
fightingfarmer09 said:
I think mail in ballots will turn into increased Dem voting here at the end. I think this is building too much false hope. It will be tight.

These analyses are also looking at mail-in ballot requests and Republicans are holding their own against the Democrats. Unless Democrats return their MIBs at a significantly higher rate than Republicans, they're not going to get a huge bump from them at the end. .


If there is a drastic drop in total mail in ballots compared to 2020 (COVID) then those folks will just vote in person meaning a drastically different outlook on Election Day is my point.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to JB99 • 10:06a, 10/30/24
AG
JB99 said:
Couple of questions...

1. Can someone explain how the "firewall" term is being used in this context?

2. I read on Twitter from left leaning analyst that with early voting they are seeing more females vs. males voting, and they are betting there is more crossover voting from Rs and independents. Is this a rational argument?


It could mean that there are large amounts of Dem votes. It could also mean that republicans are getting a normal turnout, while Dems are dragging on getting their male base out to vote.

Kind of a crapshoot.
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aezmvp
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In reply to fightingfarmer09 • 10:08a, 10/30/24
Based on enthusiasm and turnout I don't think that's right. I think that election day, the day itself will look much like 2020 for the GOP, maybe down 2 or 3% Dems will be down 4 or 5%. The Dem machine has been starved by about 1/3 of their union turnout machine and Indy vote in many places will be down out of exhaustion and disgust. Just my educated guess.
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to akm91 • 11:04a, 10/30/24
akm91 said:
The R enthusiasm is clear across the country. The increase in women voting is partially due to that enthusiasm. Hell, my wife even voted early this year.

Add 1 to the increased women voting and 1 to the Trump tally.
Yep, that's my big point. Actual registered Republican women aren't the group that's making up the the group of motivated women who are motivated by the Democrat screaming talking points about abortion. Those are the women more so energized to vote bc they're pissed of their grocery bill went up drastically and they're run to target got a **** ton more expensive.

The women running to the polls about abortion are democrats and some independent women.
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outofstateaggie
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11:09a, 10/30/24
AG
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