***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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Captn_Ag05
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11:31a, 10/29/24
AG
Republicans expanded lead by 25k since yesterday in Arizona.

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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to Definitely Not A Cop • 11:32a, 10/29/24
Definitely Not A Cop said:
If R's win NV and NC, what does that realistically mean?
I think it means they will get the electoral votes for those two states lol jk

In all seriousness, if Trump is really going to win NV I think he will be celebrating early on election night. Likely means these EV trends we've been seeing are real and not canibalization of ED vote and he wins almost all if not all swing states #landslide.

This synopsis ignores "pipes bursting" and 3 am unmarked ballot delivery. Need to run up the lead so high that's not even worth trying.
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aezmvp
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In reply to txags92 • 11:34a, 10/29/24
Correct. I suspect that the EV data is leading to a 300+ EV margin for Trump. I don't THINK NM or VA flip but I suspect that Trump wins WI, PA and NH and am pretty confident he sweeps the Sun Belt (outside NM/CO obviously).
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nortex97
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11:39a, 10/29/24
AG
This seems big, as I'd seen projections from Dem side of the house of wanting 400K by Election Day.



Poll but EV analysis:


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LMCane
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In reply to brunsie • 11:40a, 10/29/24
brunsie said:
The only thing I am worried about is a lot of dems voting on election day.

I hope they feel harris is so far behind they don't even vote on that day.
keep in mind a major part of the 2020 election was "BALLOT HARVESTING"

which counts on early voting / absentee paper ballots being harvested by the democrats.

the larger the IN PERSON signed election ballots are, the harder it is to cheat in large numbers.
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aggiehawg
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11:48a, 10/29/24
AG
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backintexas2013
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:50a, 10/29/24
AG
It can't be because of confidence.
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Who?mikejones!
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11:51a, 10/29/24
It's hard to believe there's a lack of enthusiasm from Democrats to vote in this election
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Tramp96
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:51a, 10/29/24

A bloodbath in favor of Trump?

Does that translate to a favorable outcome for Lake as well?
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 11:53a, 10/29/24
AG
Who?mikejones! said:
It's hard to believe there's a lack of enthusiasm from Democrats to vote in this election


Maybe just maybe she is that bad of a candidate. Don't forget she was forced upon the people who vote democrat. She was not elected by them for very obvious reasons. We also aren't coming off of 4 years of trump.
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Hungry Ojos
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11:55a, 10/29/24
No line or wait at River Bend Church in Austin for those who still need to do their civic duty.
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harge57
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 11:59a, 10/29/24
AG
Who?mikejones! said:
It's hard to believe there's a lack of enthusiasm from Democrats to vote in this election
You can only claim the sky is falling with Trump for so long. People just don't care as much on the Democrat side if he becomes president.

Democrats are not voting FOR anyone. This election or last. Their only message is worn out.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:01p, 10/29/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Republicans expanded lead by 25k since yesterday in Arizona.

Some quick AZ numbers I just ran here.

This is an assumption that they each hold around the same of their vote - no polling indicates significant crossover vote for either. If that is the case, Harris would need to win independents by a 68-32 margin to win the state. That is never happening. Even a 10% win for Harris among independents seems extremely unlikely, but would still result in a Trump win of over 5%.

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aezmvp
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In reply to Tramp96 • 12:14p, 10/29/24
Trump will need to win 55%+ to get Lake over the top based on what I've seen. We'll see.
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tallgrant
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:31p, 10/29/24
aggiehawg said:


This doesn't factor in that they've traded the three strongest R counties in Milwaukee suburbs for Dane (Madison) , and didn't add in the actual Milwaukee county results. That county went 69-29 Democrat in 2020 and has 220,000 early ballots so far.
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 12:36p, 10/29/24
AG
TheBonifaceOption said:
aggiehawg said:
That wisconsin btw.

If Harris loses any of WI, MI, or PA shes cooked.


So at the end of EV, we'll have a pretty good idea of the predicted results in Wiscy? Agree, she can't lose that one.

Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
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aezmvp
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In reply to Tony Franklins Other Shoe • 12:42p, 10/29/24
We'll have an approximation. Based on what I'm seeing now unless they turn out a miracle on ED it's going to be a big night for Trump. Might think about doing a deep dive into what EV looks like for the different CD districts nationwide and get a better idea of what the house looks like.
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LMCane
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12:52p, 10/29/24
[If you have something to add to the conversation, please share. Otherwise don't clutter the board with random opinions. Staff]
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aginlakeway
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1:03p, 10/29/24
AG
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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jr15aggie
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1:09p, 10/29/24
AG
I agree with Skeletor... I think it's going to be a blowout. With regards to EV, you are hearing talks that if things continue we will pretty much know Trump is President before the polls close next week.

Obviously nothing is certain, but it's just one of many things that continue to point to a blowout. Starting to feel like just keeping it somewhat close will be a moral victory for Kamala.
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will25u
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1:34p, 10/29/24
In regards to pulling ads...

Harris is out of it for NC, GA, and AZ. May also be out of it for NV as well. But NV is not needed for either candidate in the most likely situations.

Harris is down to needing to run the table in the rust belt to win. If the above is true, Harris HAS to carry all three WI, MI, PA. She would win 270-268. If she loses any of those it is game over.

If the above is true for Trump, he just has to pick off one of WIMIPA. PA is looking like it will be the easiest with WI close behind.

So Harris will essentially pull most of her funding from everywhere and dump it into WIMIPA. Since she is having the most trouble in PA, look for a lot of it to go here.

If Trump can't win any of the rust belt, he has to pick off one of VA/NH/MN.

I am still thinking 312 is > 50% chance for Trump with 297 being the floor within current trends.

Still can't get complacent.

VOTE VOTE VOTE!

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!
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tk111
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In reply to aginlakeway • 1:38p, 10/29/24
AG
aginlakeway said:
He's telling them that in hopes that they will "take care of it"
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Cobra39
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1:46p, 10/29/24
Don't count them out. What ever they did in 2020, they can do it again.

Cobra39
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aezmvp
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In reply to will25u • 1:52p, 10/29/24
She's not pulled out of NV yet. They're also going to advertise on the Sphere which is a first for a political campaign. That could be more about the stories and the viral content than anything else however. It'll be a lot of earned media for the investment.
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will25u
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In reply to aezmvp • 2:03p, 10/29/24
aezmvp said:
She's not pulled out of NV yet. They're also going to advertise on the Sphere which is a first for a political campaign. That could be more about the stories and the viral content than anything else however. It'll be a lot of earned media for the investment.
I honestly don't know why either of them are spending any money in NV.

Yes, it has value... But of the 7 swing states it is of least value. Like I have said, it is not needed for either candidate in the most likely situations.

The only way it comes into play is if Harris wins GA or NC along with WI/MI, and Trump wins PA. Then NV would be the decider. But this situation is pretty low on the likely hood scale.

Personally, I'm pretty MEH on whatever NV decides to do. I will come back and eat my crow if it comes to pass the NV turned out to be important.
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will25u
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2:07p, 10/29/24
This is mildly interesting.

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SwigAg11
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In reply to will25u • 2:09p, 10/29/24
AG
will25u said:
This is mildly interesting.


It's interesting in that it's the first time in NJ where Reps are leading in IPEV. However, IPEV+MIB is still solidly Dem.
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will25u
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2:11p, 10/29/24
nm
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will25u
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2:12p, 10/29/24

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FTAG 2000
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In reply to will25u • 2:16p, 10/29/24
AG
will25u said:


Roughly 50% of the 2020 vote total has been cast in AZ so far.
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will25u
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In reply to aezmvp • 2:19p, 10/29/24
aezmvp said:
She's not pulled out of NV yet. They're also going to advertise on the Sphere which is a first for a political campaign. That could be more about the stories and the viral content than anything else however. It'll be a lot of earned media for the investment.
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aezmvp
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In reply to will25u • 2:23p, 10/29/24
This is why for Trump:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/lL0NO

Nevada is completely getable for both sides. Or was. My guess is that the union organization there has seen a significant lack of enthusiasm for Harris. Now don't get me wrong the Union leadership in NV is very strong and has been forever. Culinary Local 226 and AFSCME plus the teachers union leadership are working hard but the no taxes on tips (which they're pushing locally with some local people and no mention of Trump on that) is probably making some inroads. The messaging is so strident but it's in line with union rhetoric for the last century.

There are some indications (but it is still 24-48 hours too soon to tell) that they are starting to worry about VA.
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to aginlakeway • 2:26p, 10/29/24
AG
aginlakeway said:
They need to get skeletor in front of the cameras, he's even older and crotchetier and will shoot his slimy mouth off about it just to show how right he is. Never misses a moment to stroke his own ego at his advanced age.

Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
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fightingfarmer09
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2:27p, 10/29/24
I think mail in ballots will turn into increased Dem voting here at the end. I think this is building too much false hope. It will be tight.
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aezmvp
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In reply to will25u • 2:27p, 10/29/24
It's... fine I guess. But again what's the message? Vote to win? Vote for freedom? It's just generic. Look one of the things that you want in something like that is a bunch of calls to action with issues that move voters. And... she doesn't do any of that. She has effective avenues to motivate people but that's really kind of weak.
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