***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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Captn_Ag05
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10:24p, 10/28/24
AG
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outofstateaggie
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10:26p, 10/28/24
AG


Don't know anything about this account. Just popped up on my feed.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to dreyOO • 10:27p, 10/28/24
AG
dreyOO said:
Are you seeing similar types of rural turnout in red counties elsewhere too? That's my hope...that the rural counties greatly overperform and shock the city dwellers by winning a few states we don't typically get.


In Nevada and Florida, yes. I've run some numbers on both and see a trend.

I have not run any numbers myself for Wisconsin, but others are reporting a rural surge.

Based on republicans having an early vote lead in North Carolina, which they never have, I think it's safe to say it's happening there. I still worry about turnout in western counties dealing with the storm though.
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fightingfarmer09
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In reply to aginlakeway • 10:29p, 10/28/24
aginlakeway said:
the most cool guy said:
LMCane said:
Centre County has the largest university in Pennsylvania and one of the largest universities in the entire country

we are almost flipping it Republican.

I was up in Gettysburg yesterday with my Trump signs and stickers driving around. Pedal to the floor!


Heard these same things in 2020 too, only for it all to fall apart on election night. Don't get excited.

Data or just things that you heard?


I remember numerous threads and posts about how amazing the EV turnout and estimates were in 2020. Only to see it all burn up. I want it to work out so bad.
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jja79
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:50p, 10/28/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
GAC06 said:
sanangelo said:
tremble said:
Too bad they put up Lake for that seat.
Other than the meme attacks on Kari Lake, what in reality makes Kari Lake a bad candidate? I actually like her a lot.


If she keeps losing she's a bad candidate
The sheriff that ran against Lake in the primary would be winning right now IMO.


I supported and voted for Mark Lamb in the primary against Lake. I think he would be a great Senator and save us from Gallego. I will vote for Lake but she's not popular with my all republican friend group. She seems self absorbed and very confrontational.
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outofstateaggie
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10:50p, 10/28/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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10:56p, 10/28/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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8:11a, 10/29/24
AG
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to jja79 • 8:14a, 10/29/24
jja79 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
GAC06 said:
sanangelo said:
tremble said:
Too bad they put up Lake for that seat.
Other than the meme attacks on Kari Lake, what in reality makes Kari Lake a bad candidate? I actually like her a lot.


If she keeps losing she's a bad candidate
The sheriff that ran against Lake in the primary would be winning right now IMO.


I supported and voted for Mark Lamb in the primary against Lake. I think he would be a great Senator and save us from Gallego. I will vote for Lake but she's not popular with my all republican friend group. She seems self absorbed and very confrontational.
I see this point some make about Trump too and I think the reasoning is the same with Lake....They're attacked non stop from the left with bs and a ton of lies. If they fight back they're viewed as "confrontational". Are they supposed to lay down and take it? It's arguably what makes Trump his best is he doesn't back down. It's a weird critique. Would be like if a kid got in my sons face and pushed him unprovoked so he knocked him out and then you want to tell me my kid is confrontational...No, he didn't put up with the bs.
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jja79
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 8:38a, 10/29/24
AG
It's not selling well for her.
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will25u
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8:54a, 10/29/24



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will25u
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8:56a, 10/29/24

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texagbeliever
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:00a, 10/29/24
Captn_Ag05 said:


The betting odds on polymarket seems to be moving with the EV news.
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:20a, 10/29/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
well, this is terrifying
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aezmvp
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9:25a, 10/29/24


This is what I predicted after 3 or 4 days into early voting. This will not be the last spot this happens in. Expect AZ to follow quickly on the heals of this. Kamala waiting until tonight to have her "closing argument" speech on the mall was a mistake. They will need 24 hours minimum to see a shift in turnout and do polling on the speech to determine a direction. Probably 36-48. That leaves very little time to impact early voting on the ground 3 days at best really as it takes an additional day to get people moved around (best case scenario) and into new spots let alone integrate them into the local structure.

That will mean she either isn't able to effectively impact the early vote at all in shifting resources and will bet it all on Election Day, which isn't a scenario we've seen in a decade. I know she has some real professionals involved in her campaign but the real story from inside her campaign leadership must be insane.
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backintexas2013
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 9:30a, 10/29/24
AG
Why? Trump has a 60% chance of winning. Kamala 40%. The betting markets are about 70%.
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to backintexas2013 • 9:31a, 10/29/24
AG
looks to me like it reads 85% chance of pick em or worse. I dont trust it in a pick em.
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Tswizsle
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9:36a, 10/29/24
a pick em would mean a Harris victory
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billydean05
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9:51a, 10/29/24
Mark Halperin has a hard left bend to him. Look at the early voting data. Nevada Clarke County (Las Vegas) mail is a no show and Republicans are winning early vote overall by 38,000 with three days left. Pennsylvania Republicans are currently over 31% of early ballots returned goal is 30% firewall is under 500,000 for dems and they really need over 600,000. Philadelphia is not requesting ballots and not early voting at a high clip at all. Georgia Fulton County is slow in the early voting African American percentages are low. Keep fighting but all data looks like this is going in a quite positive direction for Republicans. Texas same thing Dallas and El PAso and San Antonio more sitting this one out. Strong Republican areas showing up in droves. Republicans will continue to be more enthusiastic on election day as well.
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1939
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 10:09a, 10/29/24
AG
Thats a 60% chance of a Trump victory.
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aezmvp
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10:30a, 10/29/24
10/29 Morning Early Vote Round Up (I'll do these in 2 state groups):

Full disclosure I'm GOP biased but try and be realistic. If you have other even partisan Dem sources, let me know.

https://www.l2-data.com/earlyreturn/ (not always up to date and other sources are used as well where deemed reliable)

NEVADA

State of the Race: ~38,000 GOP Partisan Ballot Lead
Total Votes in 24: 700,000+
2020 Turnout: 1,373,376
Expected Turnout: 1,300,000
Days left to EV: 4

Comments:
Dems are behind 227,000 mail in votes compared to 2020. Those can be counted up to 3 days after the election. That being said turn out for Democratic voters has lagged SIGNIFICANTLY behind 20. In 2020 the "Firewall" in Clark County (Las Vegas) was 80,000 that they use to outpace GOP rural votes. Currently it is around 4800. It was down to 2800 but mail votes overnight bumped it back up. GOP also is winning Washoe County (Reno) outright. Dems are relying on minority votes and indies breaking hard Dem to have a prayer.

Concerns: For Dems it's a nightmare, they will need significant union work AND Indy's breaking by around 10 points and Trump keeping his base by 5% less than Harris. For GOP it's that Indy's are skewing younger and that panic, and solid union ground game + Reid machine, scratches out a win (and with mail ballots after Nov.5th).

Projection: Trump win, Dems lose super majority in the state legislature and Brown comes close. A Trump win on independents carrying over to the Senate race might get Brown over the top, but that means an ED wave of votes.

Indispensable resources:
Jon Ralston on X and his blog (Dem bias): https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
NevaData (GOP & Dem bias, two people): https://www.nevadata.com/


ARIZONA

State of the Race: 102,988 GOP Advantage (10/27)
Total Votes in 24: 1,100,000+
2020 Turnout: 3,333,829
Expected Turnout: 3,300,000
Days left to EV: 4

Comments:
GOP has a solid lead but independents broke and are polling well for Kamala Harris between 7-10 points better (where I can get cross tabs in RCP). Turnout amongst Independents is down however so who is showing up. The GOP will likely see a significant win here on election day and it will come down to Independents, who is showing up and how much the GOP is pulling from Harris (where he generally does 1-2% better with Dems than Harris does with GOP voters).

Concerns: For Dems, they're behind and likely will not get significant resources as this is not a key state and they are underperforming in Maricopa county. Those resources will be thrown in other places where travel is more convenient. For GOP it's Indy breakdown as above. Dem and Dem lean voters aren't turning out well and Indy vote is notoriously hard to track.

Projection: GOP win by 250-300 unless it's a wave. They need to keep banking votes and turning out their newly registered voters where they have significantly outpaced Dems on the ground since 20 and 22.

Indispensable resource:
Uplift Data: https://www.upliftcampaigns.com/2024azearly


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LMCane
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10:36a, 10/29/24
so I think this is correct:

in 2020 the Democrats had a 324,000 vote lead with 7 days until election day

in 2024 the Republicans have a 24,000 vote lead with 7 days until election day

nearly a swing of 350K for the GOP. in a state the GOP won. am I missing something?

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jr15aggie
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In reply to aezmvp • 10:42a, 10/29/24
AG
Nice post. Take a look at your AZ votes, looks like you copied the current and 2020 numbers twice.

If you compare what you are seeing in this thread and what you see in the 'muh polls' thread... EVERYTHING has shifted right for '24 (and not just by a little... big swings).

It's not over till it's over, but nothing is looking good for Harris right now. We have 2 prior elections with Trump on the ballot to compare... by comparing EV turnout and polling from past elections, Harris is about to get completely wiped out.
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LMCane
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10:43a, 10/29/24
Is there any way to confirm these are legitimate posts?

It just does not make ANY logical sense that Kamala is pulling ads.

she raised literally a BILLION DOLLARS!

and somehow they are claiming she can't afford a million dollars in North Carolina?!?

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jr15aggie
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In reply to LMCane • 10:48a, 10/29/24
AG
LMCane said:
so I think this is correct:

in 2020 the Democrats had a 324,000 vote lead with 7 days until election day

in 2024 the Republicans have a 24,000 vote lead with 7 days until election day

nearly a swing of 350K for the GOP. in a state the GOP won. am I missing something?

No I think that is correct. Republicans are showing up and out-performing past elections and the Dems are staying home.

And if you are in the Harris camp you can look at it on a state by state basis and say "it's OK" because states do shift left or right all the time. NC shifting farther red isn't the end of the world... But you are seeing this trend across multiple states in different regions. It's becoming a wide spread trend in '24.
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brunsie
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10:51a, 10/29/24
AG
The only thing I am worried about is a lot of dems voting on election day.

I hope they feel harris is so far behind they don't even vote on that day.
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TefIon Don
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In reply to brunsie • 10:54a, 10/29/24
AG
brunsie said:
The only thing I am worried about is a lot of dems voting on election day.

I hope they feel harris is so far behind they don't even vote on that day.


Yes, but doesn't Election Day typically favor the Rs? Not sure if there is anything suggesting that will change this year. Unless the argument can be made that the large R turnout in early voting is due to Rs shifting their vote from ED to early.
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1836er
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In reply to LMCane • 10:55a, 10/29/24
AG
I was thinking the same thing on the money front; they have enough to spend as much as they want everywhere.

If true, methinks it's got to be more about leveraging available logistics and personnel rather than the money to pay for it.
Vance in '28
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aezmvp
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11:05a, 10/29/24
MINNESOTA

State of the Race: ~40,000 GOP Partisan Ballot Lead
Total Votes in 24: 673,000+ (10/28)
2020 Turnout: 3,201,142
Expected Turnout: 3,300,000
Days left to EV: 7

Comments:
GOP has a slight edge here, mostly from high turnout in rural counties and big GOP turn out in the suburbs. Hennepin county (Minneapolis) is relatively close (10% Dem advantage) and Ramsey County (St. Paul) has a huge Dem advantage but the other suburban counties are offsetting this. We can expect some turn around this week and things to get tighter but this is an unusually strong spot for the GOP.

Concerns: Dems fear they could lose 2 congressional seats (2nd and 3rd districts). If they don't cut the gap this week they'll need to win Indy votes by 10% or better (very possible) to put this in Harris's column. GOP worries that they can't sustain the momentum in the rural and suburban counties and have cannibalized too many election day voters.

Projection: Dems hit the panic button, close the gap to within 15,000 by election day and win by about half their 2020 margin. ~150,000. Called late. Dems lose 1 seat in the house. (If they don't close the gap though...)

Indispensable resources:
Don't have any. Would like one or two.


WISCONSIN

State of the Race: ~156,000 GOP Partisan Ballot Lead
Total Votes in 24: 898,000+ (10/29)
2020 Turnout: 3,241,050
Expected Turnout: 3,300,000
Days left to EV: 6

Comments:
What in the wide, wide world of sports is a goin' on here? Milwaukee County is behind statewide turnout almost 5% and Dems are underperforming by 10% and GOP by 100%. No seriously. This should be a huge focus for the Harris campaign. Yes PA is important. Yes they need to get into the MI suburbs. But Holy Moley.

Concerns: Time to panic for Dems. Now, not later. Don't wait until the speech tonight, don't wait for the polling. Allocate significant resources from the Sun Belt and now. For the GOP getting the remainder of your low pro people to the polls and not getting complacent. Also is there enough beer in Milwaukee for this if the lead gets bigger.

Projection: Not enough resources or candidate visits or anything. Dems lose in WI by 6-10x their 2020 victory margin. Harris' lack of strength with AA absolutely dooms her and the rural overperformance and Indy's not turning out is the final nail in the coffin.

Indispensable resources:
Again, I'm just deep diving county results and demo's. Would love a few real experts.
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aezmvp
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In reply to jr15aggie • 11:06a, 10/29/24
Nice Catch! Thanks! Fixed!
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jr15aggie
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In reply to brunsie • 11:07a, 10/29/24
AG
brunsie said:
The only thing I am worried about is a lot of dems voting on election day.

I hope they feel harris is so far behind they don't even vote on that day.

I get it... and you hear the argument that all the extra Republican EV will reduce the ED turnout.

But when you look at everything we are seeing... Dems absentee ballot requests are down, Dems EV is down, Dems mail in ballots & returns are down.

The Dems just ain't showing up for Kamala. Unfortunately for her, the other side is flocking to the polls.
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aezmvp
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In reply to TefIon Don • 11:11a, 10/29/24
Yes it does. But GOP is EV in ways it never has before. MOSTLY in places where we have data on how often people have voted: New + 0/4 last federal cycles, 1/4, 2/4, 3/4, 4/4 the GOP is significantly out pacing Dems in NR+0/4, 1/4 and 2/4, they're behind in 3/4 and tied in 4/4. Now again this is MOSTLY on a partisan ballot return basis.

Campaigns will have extensive models based on if they've switched parties and voted in multiple primaries, what their meta data says about them, etc. But again, there is a lot to match up and it's not always right. Take this all (and especially my analysis posts) with a huge grain of salt. Lots can happen in a week with today and tomorrow being big days.
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Definitely Not A Cop
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:12a, 10/29/24
AG
If R's win NV and NC, what does that realistically mean?
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txags92
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In reply to aezmvp • 11:22a, 10/29/24
AG
aezmvp said:
Yes it does. But GOP is EV in ways it never has before. MOSTLY in places where we have data on how often people have voted: New + 0/4 last federal cycles, 1/4, 2/4, 3/4, 4/4 the GOP is significantly out pacing Dems in NR+0/4, 1/4 and 2/4, they're behind in 3/4 and tied in 4/4. Now again this is MOSTLY on a partisan ballot return basis.

Campaigns will have extensive models based on if they've switched parties and voted in multiple primaries, what their meta data says about them, etc. But again, there is a lot to match up and it's not always right. Take this all (and especially my analysis posts) with a huge grain of salt. Lots can happen in a week with today and tomorrow being big days.
Good analysis for those asking (over and over) if the Rs are cannibalizing ED votes. One thing to keep in mind is that many of the 3/4 and 4/4 voters that the Rs are "behind" D percentages on are the ones who typically make up the big R advantage on ED. So being behind the D percentages with those voters is expected during EV.
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brunsie
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In reply to jr15aggie • 11:30a, 10/29/24
AG
jr15aggie said:
brunsie said:
The only thing I am worried about is a lot of dems voting on election day.

I hope they feel harris is so far behind they don't even vote on that day.

I get it... and you hear the argument that all the extra Republican EV will reduce the ED turnout.

But when you look at everything we are seeing... Dems absentee ballot requests are down, Dems EV is down, Dems mail in ballots & returns are down.

The Dems just ain't showing up for Kamala. Unfortunately for her, the other side is flocking to the polls.


I hope that is what happens. I would love to see a Trump/Vance/ Gop landslide.
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