***Official Early Vote Tracking***

243,259 Views | 1696 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by IDaggie06
Bayou City
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In reply to aezmvp • 11:15a, 10/26/24
CO is +10 - +15 Harris. I wouldn't Call that close.
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."

Mark Twain
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aezmvp
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In reply to Bayou City • 11:27a, 10/26/24
Bayou City said:
CO is +10 - +15 Harris. I wouldn't Call that close.
https://www.l2-data.com/earlyreturn/

GOP VS Dem returns are only up 3% for the GOP. CO has a huge portion of unaffiliated voters and basically no polling and crosstabs. My guess is that's a 3% Harris win on indys. This will be closer to 2016 imo and indy split 45 to 42 in CO exit polling for Trump in 2016 so I'm assuming a flip of that. I'd be shocked if the Dems get to plus 10 to 15 based on the early returns.

Edited for clarity.
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Squadron7
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11:47a, 10/26/24
AG
I'd love to see a comparison showing the relationship between Democrat margin of victory and overall cost of living…somehow adjusted for population size.
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aezmvp
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In reply to Squadron7 • 12:18p, 10/26/24
I think instead of the pop number you'd be better off looking at urban/suburban/rural split. I'm not sure population density would be the right call either.
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will25u
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12:39p, 10/26/24
Again, both parties underperforming 2020 in AZ, but R's have the lead. D's down 120k+ compared to 2020

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SwigAg11
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2:39p, 10/26/24
AG
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will25u
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3:58p, 10/26/24
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aggiehawg
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In reply to will25u • 4:01p, 10/26/24
AG
LOL.

ETA: Saturday college football.
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Captn_Ag05
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4:15p, 10/26/24
AG
Many red/rural counties aren't open in Florida today and while the percentage of republicans vote has gone down ever so slightly, they've increased their ballot lead from 400,000 at the start of the day to 465,000 now.

Oh, and his post was total sarcasm in case anyone didn't catch it
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will25u
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4:26p, 10/26/24
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aezmvp
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In reply to will25u • 5:05p, 10/26/24
The craziest part will be if independents break Trump which lots of internal polling and public cross tabs seem to indicate. Watch closely to see if they throw resources at the AZ senate race. Also if this trend is the same on Tuesday and there isn't a rebound it will be every man/woman for themselves in Democratic circles.
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will25u
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5:58p, 10/26/24

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will25u
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6:00p, 10/26/24

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will25u
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6:13p, 10/26/24
Good... Really like Sam Brown.


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1836er
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In reply to aezmvp • 6:35p, 10/26/24
AG
aezmvp said:
The craziest part will be if independents break Trump which lots of internal polling and public cross tabs seem to indicate. Watch closely to see if they throw resources at the AZ senate race. Also if this trend is the same on Tuesday and there isn't a rebound it will be every man/woman for themselves in Democratic circles.
It's possible, but not likely.

Vance in '28
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Amarillo Slim
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6:39p, 10/26/24
AG
He identifies as trans canine and voted for Trump!
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TXAGGIES
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6:40p, 10/26/24
Does Trump get over 310?
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SwigAg11
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In reply to will25u • 7:17p, 10/26/24
AG
I think that tweet on Miami-Dade is IPEV only. IPEV +mail is around R+4-5, which is still crazy.
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BTHOB
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In reply to TXAGGIES • 7:17p, 10/26/24
AG
TXAGGIES said:
Does Trump get over 310?


Results reported will indicate Trump got less than 270.
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Cliff.Booth
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7:18p, 10/26/24
Wife and I voted for Trump/Vance today. Not an enthusiastic Trump guy, but love Vance and Trump has grown on me a bit over the last several months. All in all, easy choice, the other side is unthinkable.
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outofstateaggie
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7:54p, 10/26/24
AG
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dtkprowler
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 7:59p, 10/26/24
AG
What does turnout indicate? Good for Reps or Dems?
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AtticusMatlock
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8:15p, 10/26/24
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aezmvp
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In reply to dtkprowler • 8:23p, 10/26/24
GA turnout is up in rurals and down in urban black areas.
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will25u
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12:19a, 10/27/24
Oh.... Yay...

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1836er
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In reply to will25u • 12:21a, 10/27/24
AG
LOL, it's October 27.
Vance in '28
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4stringAg
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1:38a, 10/27/24
AG
Elias is giant scum. Hes responsible for a ton of the lawfare on the Dems side against election integrity and security
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aezmvp
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In reply to 4stringAg • 1:40a, 10/27/24
4stringAg said:
Elias is giant scum. Hes responsible for a ton of the lawfare on the Dems side against election integrity and security
There was never a chance he'd be on the sidelines. Gotta exceed the... everything when that guy is involved.
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nortex97
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6:03a, 10/27/24
AG
Excellent news:



(Clark County IPV EV not included above).



VA in person only;


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nortex97
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7:35a, 10/27/24
AG
Not a metric per se but Fetterman comments the Trump momentum/enthusiasm is astounding in PA is pretty fun.
Quote:
Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. John Fetterman opened up about the state of the presidential race in his key battleground state and called former President Trump's support there "astonishing" while predicting that Elon Musk's endorsement is "going to really matter."

"There's a difference between not understanding, but also acknowledging that it exists," Fetterman told the New York Times in an interview published Saturday morning when asked about enthusiasm for Trump in Pennsylvania. "And anybody who spends time driving around, and you can see the intensity. It's astonishing."

Fetterman continued, "I was doing an event in Indiana County. Very, very red. And there was a superstore of Trump stuff, and it was a hundred feet long. [There were] dozens of T-shirts and hats and bumper stickers and all kinds of, I mean, it's like, Where does this all come from? It's the kind of thing that has taken on its own life. And it's like something very special exists there. And that doesn't mean that I admire it. It's just it's real."
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SwigAg11
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:57a, 10/27/24
AG
Reading Fetterman's comments, he secretly admires the fervor, but just can't bring himself to say it.
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nortex97
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 10:54a, 10/27/24
AG
Agreed.



WI is the one that is at this point most likely to flip in the rust belt imho.

Dems do better in EV on the weekend;


We are getting close to the point where it's feasible Trump pushes an upper teen to 20 point win in Florida:
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will25u
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12:18p, 10/27/24
*IF* and a YUGE if....

If Trump ends up winning like the numbers are currently saying.... He will pull a lot of other races up to wins for down ballot Reps.

Don't let up!

VOTE VOTE VOTE!

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!
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SwigAg11
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12:43p, 10/27/24
AG
While I do not think DJT will win NJ, it feels like this race could get uncomfortably close for the Dems. However, that comparison in the tweet is to 2022, and not 2020 or any other presidential election year.

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brunsie
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In reply to will25u • 12:55p, 10/27/24
AG
will25u said:



Haha that is commitment. I would definitely buy a beer to have a drink with her and chat.
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