***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 1:56p, 10/25/24
AtticusMatlock said:
Am i just completely inept bc I'm reading that that says R is outvoting D but the D number is higher. What am I not understanding?
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 2:00p, 10/25/24
From what I can tell, in the tight state election in 2021 Dems outpaced GOP 63-37 in early voting. Similar numbers in Congressional elections in 2022 and state / local elections in 2023.

Right now it is 59-41. I think yesterday the GOP outvoted the Dems in raw numbers. Either way, Democrat early voting is down from the norms of the last several election cycles and Republican early voting is up.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 2:01p, 10/25/24
AG
I heard this analogy recently. Your kid is routinely failing a class and then works hard and suddenly brings home a B+?
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agcrock2005
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2:11p, 10/25/24
AG
[We're not going to derail this early vote tracking thread with allegations of voter fraud. There is a dedicated thread for that. Take it there. Staff]
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LMCane
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2:20p, 10/25/24
hope this guy is using actual numbers from the SOS

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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 2:24p, 10/25/24
AtticusMatlock said:
From what I can tell, in the tight state election in 2021 Dems outpaced GOP 63-37 in early voting. Similar numbers in Congressional elections in 2022 and state / local elections in 2023.

Right now it is 59-41. I think yesterday the GOP outvoted the Dems in raw numbers. Either way, Democrat early voting is down from the norms of the last several election cycles and Republican early voting is up.
Gotcha, so that X poster is either referring to the one day raw vote win or the in general R out pacing what they did vs. D in the % split previously.

I just read the tweet and looked at the number in his tweet. Confusing. Thank you.
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LMCane
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3:20p, 10/25/24
OMG Florida already boatracing the leftists
up nearly half a million BEFORE election day



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Orlwm_Ag
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3:22p, 10/25/24
Just a brief warning about getting too excited comparing 2024 to 2020. Remember in 2020 COVID was chief on many people especially democrats mind and they were afraid to vote in person. Probably comparing percentages to 2022 would be more valid or maybe even 2016 or at least between 2016 and 2020.
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LMCane
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3:58p, 10/25/24
good news

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LMCane
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In reply to Orlwm_Ag • 4:19p, 10/25/24

[If you derail this early voting thread again with voting fraud you will be banned. There's you warning -- Staff]
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 4:42p, 10/25/24
Gyles Marrett said:
AtticusMatlock said:
Am i just completely inept bc I'm reading that that says R is outvoting D but the D number is higher. What am I not understanding?




I still don't get it
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 4:51p, 10/25/24
AG
Quote:
I still don't get it
Makes perfect sense if you replace "modeled" party identification with WAG.
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aezmvp
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In reply to aggiehawg • 4:59p, 10/25/24
I don't think vA is in reach for Trump. Cao might get enough. But that's only at a HIGH red turnout. Not sure we are there yet in VA and would like to see those vote counts get a bit closer still. Same position in MI. I think Trump wins WI if these trends hold through the weekend. But VA would be tough.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to aezmvp • 5:07p, 10/25/24
AG
aezmvp said:
I don't think vA is in reach for Trump. Cao might get enough. But that's only at a HIGH red turnout. Not sure we are there yet in VA and would like to see those vote counts get a bit closer still. Same position in MI. I think Trump wins WI if these trends hold through the weekend. But VA would be tough.
Didn't say it was. My point is getting a feel for the popular vote. He can bank a lot of votes for the popular vote but still lose the state. If it looks very promising on the popular vote early, that won't be restricted to just East Coast states. That was what I was trying to say.

Sorry if I was unclear.
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aezmvp
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6:39p, 10/25/24


DNC groups abandoning Nevada. Early vote totals are good but to do this today and not after this weekend means a lot. There are 2 close races for the house that might end up as GOP pickups so pulling ad spending in close races means they have an idea of how the union and indy votes are going and it may be bad for the Dems there.
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outofstateaggie
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6:58p, 10/25/24
AG
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will25u
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8:56p, 10/25/24
Another day another 100k added to the R firewall.

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will25u
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8:58p, 10/25/24
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In reply to will25u • 8:59p, 10/25/24
AG
Texas was never in play. Just more Dem BS and Cruz wanting my one dollar
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will25u
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9:10p, 10/25/24
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will25u
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9:14p, 10/25/24
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will25u
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9:16p, 10/25/24
Trump won't win CO, but it will probably be closer than 2020.

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TheVarian
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In reply to will25u • 9:17p, 10/25/24
AG
Voted here in CO and it was a very "red" voting station. Keeping my fingers crossed but trying to be real
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e=mc2
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9:23p, 10/25/24
AG
The RNC has done a great job with EV messaging. Thank God for the new leadership!

I'm hoping Democrats are too unenthusiastic or too lazy to vote on ED.

I actually think Trump might pick up a couple of surprise states at this point. Any state he's within 5 points is in play I think. I pray I'm right!
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will25u
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9:35p, 10/25/24
I am more worried about getting enough seats in the house to keep the majority.

If not, the house will bombard Trump(if he wins) with BS. And probably another bogus impeachment or two.

Senate is probably around 52R/48D. +/- 1.
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will25u
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10:08p, 10/25/24
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Captn_Ag05
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10:57p, 10/25/24
AG
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nortex97
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9:23a, 10/26/24
AG
Halperin 5 take aways include;
  • Dems will have to over-perform/turnout on Election Day
  • Dems have big problems with black males so far in EV
  • Dem reliance on female and younger voters (former are turning out)
  • Republican enthusiasm to vote early is real/across the board



I missed another one, but good to see. More linear lead growth in NC:




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will25u
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9:24a, 10/26/24
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LMCane
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 9:25a, 10/26/24
Gyles Marrett said:
AtticusMatlock said:
Am i just completely inept bc I'm reading that that says R is outvoting D but the D number is higher. What am I not understanding?


there must be something to the polling and early voting in Virginia that Trump just scheduled a rally in Salem, Virginia the final weekend of the campaign!
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mslags97
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In reply to LMCane • 9:58a, 10/26/24
AG
LMCane said:
Gyles Marrett said:
AtticusMatlock said:
Am i just completely inept bc I'm reading that that says R is outvoting D but the D number is higher. What am I not understanding?


there must be something to the polling and early voting in Virginia that Trump just scheduled a rally in Salem, Virginia the final weekend of the campaign!


I absolutely think Virginia is in play, and my bold prediction is Hung Cao beats Tim Kaine!!!! Go Navy!
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lunchbox
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In reply to LMCane • 10:21a, 10/26/24
LMCane said:
Gyles Marrett said:
AtticusMatlock said:
Am i just completely inept bc I'm reading that that says R is outvoting D but the D number is higher. What am I not understanding?


there must be something to the polling and early voting in Virginia that Trump just scheduled a rally in Salem, Virginia the final weekend of the campaign!
Further down the twitter thread, he explains that:

Quote:
When I say "outvoted" I mean mode modeled Rs cast ballots yesterday than modeled Ds did. That hasn't happened before this entire cycle.

He's comparing the total % of votes day to day. It went D 59.07% - R 40.93% to D 58.79% - R 41.21%. Hence, R's gained from one day to the next.
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aezmvp
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In reply to mslags97 • 10:28a, 10/26/24
Can is more likely to win than Trump in VA... BUT if it's clear that Trump is going to win from the early vote then I expect election day to be a massacre and that might pull Trump over the top in VA, NH, MI, MN. We could even get crazy and say CO, NM and NJ at that point but that's a stretch. A big one.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to aezmvp • 10:33a, 10/26/24
AG
aezmvp said:
Can is more likely to win than Trump in VA... BUT if it's clear that Trump is going to win from the early vote then I expect election day to be a massacre and that might pull Trump over the top in VA, NH, MI, MN. We could even get crazy and say CO, NM and NJ at that point but that's a stretch. A big one.
CO is just too uphill. He'll do better than expected, however. The Venezuelan gang issue has affected a lot of people there but not enough to make the difference. Same with NY and NJ. Not quite enough.

New Mexico? Gettable but again, uphill climb.
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aezmvp
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:59a, 10/26/24
It would take a ,major preference cascade. I don't think it will happen. But I'm shocked how close CO, NH, VA, and NM are.
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