***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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will25u
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:18a, 10/25/24
nortex97 said:

Personally, I'm not seeing where all the good numbers are, but maybe someone else is?
If you read Marcus' post before the one in this tweet, he seems to think that Rep's are blowing through their rural population and thus Dem's will take the lead as the EV continues at some point when the big cities start turning out. This may be true, but NV really doesn't matter to either candidate unless Trump picks off a long shot state like MN/VA and loses all the rust belt.

We are seeing the same story across all of the swing states that we have data on. Rep's are on par with 2020 EV and Dem's are underperforming so far.

Most all of the election mafia on X caveats their data by saying... If the trends hold....

Dem's could have moved their voting from mail/EV to election day. We won't know until after the election. But Dems have ALWAYS had an issue with getting their base to the polls on ED. That is why they always push EV.

Reps on the other hand have always embraced voting more so on election day and usually swamp the polls.

Either way, the Reps are doing better so far, and I would rather be a R that a D right now.
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will25u
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8:26a, 10/25/24


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will25u
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8:26a, 10/25/24
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will25u
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8:32a, 10/25/24
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LMCane
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8:48a, 10/25/24
can one of you smart guys who can tell BS from actual probabilities check this one out?

claiming we are on track to win early voting in North Carolina and election day voting.

just because we win more votes each day does not mean that continues every day- it's not a corellative indicator

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LMCane
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In reply to Toptierag2018 • 8:51a, 10/25/24
Toptierag2018 said:
Prosperdick said:
There needs to be a sticky post on the top of the politics board that reads "Yes, we know if R's that normally vote on ED vote early it doesn't change the overall number but it DOES for low propensity or first time voters."

Everyone thinks they have this keen insight that's been repeated at least 100 times on other threads.
It does more than that.

ED voters voting early helps clear up the bandwidth for R's on the ground. Less resources have to go to those who would wait to ED to vote, and can now be spent on low propensity voters.

"One bird in the hand is better than two birds in the bush"
THIS

also, it allows for taking into account snow storms, hurricanes, dying before election day.

it also sets a media narrative of "winning" for the week leading into election day
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1939
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8:56a, 10/25/24
AG
I'm much more encouraged that Dem turnout is down vs. Rep EV being up. I do think more R's are voting early, but all we need is for D turnout to be down to win.
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Get Off My Lawn
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In reply to LMCane • 8:59a, 10/25/24
LMCane said:
Toptierag2018 said:
Prosperdick said:
There needs to be a sticky post on the top of the politics board that reads "Yes, we know if R's that normally vote on ED vote early it doesn't change the overall number but it DOES for low propensity or first time voters."

Everyone thinks they have this keen insight that's been repeated at least 100 times on other threads.
It does more than that.

ED voters voting early helps clear up the bandwidth for R's on the ground. Less resources have to go to those who would wait to ED to vote, and can now be spent on low propensity voters.

"One bird in the hand is better than two birds in the bush"
THIS

also, it allows for taking into account snow storms, hurricanes, dying before election day.

it also sets a media narrative of "winning" for the week leading into election day
Well, and line shortening. No need to choose between screwing up the family's evening and voting if you drive up and see that the line is short.
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AtticusMatlock
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9:02a, 10/25/24
We won't know too much more about Nevada until next week. The Dem-oriented Culinary Union typically has a designated vote day for their members, which should be coming up. There are also some Democrat-aligned nonprofit groups that will be dumping mail-in ballots for the homeless, etc. later this week.
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evestor1
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In reply to LMCane • 9:04a, 10/25/24
LMCane said:

it also sets a media narrative of "winning" for the week leading into election day
I was thinking about this. In 2020 dems really turned on the juice after voting was done in terms of votes just flurrying in. if you go into ED with a strong foothold there are going to be a lot of eyeballs on it.

my thought is that many R feel this and want to be heard before the real voting even starts.
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will25u
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9:05a, 10/25/24

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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 9:10a, 10/25/24
AG
I will respond, but decline the title. I think NC almost always goes for the GOP in POTUS elections the past 40 years (set aside Obama), and realistically this happens despite the GOP being down a lot in early voting.

This cycle, the Dem lead (traditional) is actually gone and flipped to a lead for the GOP which appears, based on the 5 or so days so far, to be essentially growing linearly by the day. Some of this is misleading comparing 2022 (midterm) and 2020 (covid) but it still holds true net. That poster extrapolated (or, rather projected) that on the basis of a 'traditional' GOP turnout on Election Day next month, and the current trend continuing in early voting, Trump wins by 4 or 5.

NC is interesting to me personally in EV mainly because, as with Georgia, it's a great barometer of black enthusiasm to turn out/vote for KAMala. We know there will be ballot drops/fraud etc. in big cities like Philly/Detroit/Atlanta, but that doesn't show up in this sort of data, imho. Ballot returns don't track race directly of course but we know where the black population centers/counties are in NC etc.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to will25u • 9:19a, 10/25/24
AG
[Complaining about moderation will result in your post being removed and a good chance of a ban. Staff]
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Prosperdick
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10:01a, 10/25/24
AG
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billydean05
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10:03a, 10/25/24
A few things on Marist poll.

1) Most of the already voter subset was taken a week or so ago where democrats had a bigger lead.
2) The subset sample is very small at around 400 people or so and the nonparty affiliated would be tiny, so drawing conclusions about independents breaking hard for Kamala is a stretch at best
3) Even if they are breaking slightly in early voting all the polling suggests Trump even or up slightly with independents in battle ground states, so should catch up to even or better with independents on election day

In short this green shoot seems like a hail mary and pipe dream.
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will25u
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10:04a, 10/25/24
R's over 30%. Headed for 33%. Looking good in PA.

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LuoJi
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10:10a, 10/25/24
[If you post simply to troll you will be banned. Staff]
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jpb1999
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In reply to will25u • 10:26a, 10/25/24
AG
will25u said:
R's over 30%. Headed for 33%. Looking good in PA.

I am not getting it, +30% from 2020? I am not seeing it based on the image in your post?
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Spane Bohem


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tallgrant
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10:27a, 10/25/24
Republican ballots make up 30% of the total returned early vote.
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gigemJTH12
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10:34a, 10/25/24
AG
Headed to the court house with Lee Greenwood in my speakers. Fired up!
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gigemJTH12
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10:37a, 10/25/24
AG
Aaron Lewis - Am I the Only One up next

If you haven't listened to this I suggest it!
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NPH-
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 10:52a, 10/25/24
AG
gigemJTH12 said:
Headed to the court house with Lee Greenwood in my speakers ready to send it full red. Fired up!
I love how some on the left will be triggered by this, apparently blasting proud to be an american is anti american now!
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jpb1999
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In reply to tallgrant • 11:23a, 10/25/24
AG
tallgrant said:
Republican ballots make up 30% of the total returned early vote.
I guess I am asking, how is that good? That seems bad if 30% is rep while 60% is dem?
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SouthTex99
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In reply to jpb1999 • 11:28a, 10/25/24
AG
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4stringAg
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In reply to jpb1999 • 11:28a, 10/25/24
AG
jpb1999 said:
tallgrant said:
Republican ballots make up 30% of the total returned early vote.
I guess I am asking, how is that good? That seems bad if 30% is rep while 60% is dem?
Analysts I think are deriving from past elections that if R's are around the 30% mark in EV returns in PA, then if election day voting trends hold, it would signal a win for Trump. if it gets up to 33% there are analysts saying it would be a no doubter Trump win.
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jpb1999
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In reply to SouthTex99 • 11:29a, 10/25/24
AG
SouthTex99 said:
Because in 2020 R's only had 20% and Trump only lost by 80k votes in PA. If he holds 30% going into Election Day he'd more than makeup the gap.
That is what I was asking. Thanks!
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Spane Bohem


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Fenrir
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 11:29a, 10/25/24
Who?mikejones! said:
I dunno I just read a CNN analysis of how trump is flipping independents to him .....


Guess we will find out in a couple week
I guess I'm just not seeing the evidence to support the conclusion that Ind are breaking D early, at least in what was posted here. Is there evidence to actually support that or is it just an assumption?

I feel like people are looking for connections and patterns where they may or may not exist or lack sufficient evidence to make those claims.

I think this goes both ways too. If Rs are moving to early voting at a high rate then you cannot simply assume that election day voting trends from the past would hold true and Trump wins in a landslide.
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BlackLab
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11:32a, 10/25/24
AG
Unless they are just trading the same ED votes for early votes instead. I'm wondering if normal ED voters are now voting early potentially decreasing g the number of ED voters.
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LMCane
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In reply to aggiehawg • 11:37a, 10/25/24
aggiehawg said:
Spicer was talking about Nevada recently, as was Rove. Rove, as usual was hedging but Spicer was absolutely giddy about the GOP EV in Clark and Washoe counties. Time is running out for Dems to catch up and surpass it, as well.

dems have been quoting Rove as if he is backing Kamala

need to keep beating the democrat votes every single 24 hour period up until 5 november

make THEM have to come from behind on election day
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jimscott85
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In reply to 4stringAg • 11:49a, 10/25/24
AG
4stringAg said:
jpb1999 said:
tallgrant said:
Republican ballots make up 30% of the total returned early vote.
I guess I am asking, how is that good? That seems bad if 30% is rep while 60% is dem?
Analysts I think are deriving from past elections that if R's are around the 30% mark in EV returns in PA, then if election day voting trends hold, it would signal a win for Trump. if it gets up to 33% there are analysts saying it would be a no doubter Trump win.
A consideration I hadn't thought of before and didn't really consider. There have been two primary drivers of the optimism with reference to the 30%+ returns mark.

First, when looking at the R turnout, low propensity voter data would support that there's a lack of "cannibalization" that comes up over and over.

Second, D turnout is down over 2020. Much of the decline is attributed to the unique nature of 2020. One of those unique factors was COVID. With so much COVID angst in 2020 driving early/mail-in voting, presumably skewing D, we should expect some pick-up in in-person D voting on ED. Is it enough to regain lost leverage?
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will25u
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12:01p, 10/25/24

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will25u
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12:11p, 10/25/24
Reminder to everyone about the errors in the 2020 census and the ramifications on this and later 2020 elections.

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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:47p, 10/25/24
Quo Vadis? said:
This is what I have been wondering. Are the Rs really getting all of their base or expanding their base with unknowingly Rs in rural areas

When Lara Trump took over and Turning Point became a big ground game operation for them, they came up with staggering data of people that would normally be conservative, that are not voters and the GOP were not reaching. Like 40% of gun owners (that is unbelievable) and a large chunk of Christians.

If you get those people to vote and max out the base, we might get a lot of states to turn. Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, NM would be a lot closer for Rs
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AtticusMatlock
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12:48p, 10/25/24
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AtticusMatlock
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