***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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Prosperdick
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In reply to aggiehawg • 7:43p, 10/24/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
SwigAg11 said:
Sounds like Trump voters to me as they are perfectly fine supporting him in a hypothetical.
My first thought as well.

I rag a lot on Halperin but that was a brilliant question and conducted by calling on them in rapid succession. They blurted the first thing that came to mind.

They will vote Trump. And part of that will be that questionto themselves. Why would I like him as Governor of the Commonwealth but not POTUS? What is the major difference there?

In ironic fashion, Halperin may have just sent a few torpedos into the already sinking USS Harris.
Yeah that was a great pivot by him. Yes, there's no way you would want Trump as your state's governor (with quite a bit of power) and not want him as POTUS. They're just afraid to openly support him on camera and I totally understand it.

In other news, when my wife and I voted in Prosper (which is very red) the line was almost out the door. We've lived and voted here for over 10 years and we've never seen it close to that long.

Also, an Italian American woman who was voting for the first time was telling her family "make sure you double check your card! Double check it!" As I was leaving I told her "I certainly double checked all my votes." She smiled and said "I know who you are voting for!!" She took a selfie with her family outside the building, she was beaming with pride.
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will25u
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7:44p, 10/24/24
Another +100k net for Trump today.

ETA: Florida is RED!


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will25u
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7:46p, 10/24/24
Things still looking good in GA.

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Prosperdick
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7:50p, 10/24/24
AG
Still looking good in Arizona too!
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Prosperdick
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7:53p, 10/24/24
AG
Nevada as well!
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agsalaska
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 8:02p, 10/24/24
AG
TheBonifaceOption said:
Good to see that they are following the law
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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will25u
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8:29p, 10/24/24

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4stringAg
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 8:53p, 10/24/24
AG
outofstateaggie said:
Making the rounds on several left leaning accounts.





What do we make of this given the EVs in these states have been reported as trending red? Maybe I'm misreading this but this suggests Harris is up big in these states in early voting because independents are breaking her way.
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Hanrahan
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In reply to agsalaska • 8:58p, 10/24/24
AG
agsalaska said:
TheBonifaceOption said:
Good to see that they are following the law
don't worry, if they end up needing them, dems will just sue to get them reinstated and it will happen with breathless speed at the behest of some liberal judge citing "disenfranchisement"
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to 4stringAg • 9:02p, 10/24/24
AG
Quote:
What do we make of this given the EVs in these states have been reported as trending red? Maybe I'm misreading this?
25% or so of early voting has been neither Democrat or Republican, but that "Other" group. In North Carolina, it's about 30%. So, there's a big group there that can change the overall results even if registered Republicans showed up big on Day 1*** and so far Democrat turnout has been down vis a vis 2020 Early Voting.

That said, I suspect there's something in the methodology that's overestimating Harris to at least some extent. But it still does seem to suggest the Independent vote is skewing Harris. I think that's the main takeaway, and not the exact numbers.



***I just looked at Nevada, for example. Republicans blew out 2020 Day 1 voting but have actually been below 2020 levels on each successive day. The question is does that continue or does apparent Republican enthusiasm pick up again. (Democrats are down on each respective day in Nevada. Question there is, of course, do they recover.)
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4stringAg
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 9:04p, 10/24/24
AG
TXAggie2011 said:
Quote:
What do we make of this given the EVs in these states have been reported as trending red? Maybe I'm misreading this?
25% or so of early voting has been neither Democrat or Republican, but that "Other" group. In North Carolina, it's about 30%. So, there's a big group there that can change the overall results even if registered Republicans showed up big on Day 1 and so far Democrat turnout has been down vis a vis 2020 Early Voting.

That said, I suspect there's something in the methodology that's overestimating Harris to at least some extent. But it still does seem to suggest the Independent vote is skewing Harris. I think that's the main takeaway, and not the exact numbers.



Gotcha. Thanks! If those are accurate it gives a little more cause to temper expectations although it may prove the Dem firewall in early voting is still not as big as in years past. Guess we'll see.
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outofstateaggie
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In reply to 4stringAg • 9:04p, 10/24/24
AG
That is how I interpreted as well. Definitely a contradiction. I have no idea about validity, but it popped up on several different accounts.
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outofstateaggie
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9:05p, 10/24/24
AG
I didn't see this earlier in the thread. Ralston post from this afternoon.



Nevermind…addressed here.

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Fenrir
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9:06p, 10/24/24
Why does the info provided suggest independent early voters are breaking D and not that D voters are voting early?
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to 4stringAg • 9:06p, 10/24/24
AG
4stringAg said:
TXAggie2011 said:
Quote:
What do we make of this given the EVs in these states have been reported as trending red? Maybe I'm misreading this?
25% or so of early voting has been neither Democrat or Republican, but that "Other" group. In North Carolina, it's about 30%. So, there's a big group there that can change the overall results even if registered Republicans showed up big on Day 1 and so far Democrat turnout has been down vis a vis 2020 Early Voting.

That said, I suspect there's something in the methodology that's overestimating Harris to at least some extent. But it still does seem to suggest the Independent vote is skewing Harris. I think that's the main takeaway, and not the exact numbers.
Gotcha. Thanks! If those are accurate it gives a little more cause to temper expectations although it may prove the Dem firewall in early voting is still not as big as in years past. Guess we'll see.
I added an edit that might address the "Dem firewall" comment a bit. I think there's "a lot that remains to be seen."
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will25u
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In reply to outofstateaggie • 9:09p, 10/24/24
OK... I know this thread is moving fast now, but this is old news that was posted earlier. He came back and posted that the makeup of the drop was about even with R+6k, D+6k and ind getting the rest.
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outofstateaggie
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In reply to will25u • 9:10p, 10/24/24
AG
Caught that after posting and updated. Sorry.
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aezmvp
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In reply to Fenrir • 9:12p, 10/24/24
Which state.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Fenrir • 9:13p, 10/24/24
I dunno I just read a CNN analysis of how trump is flipping independents to him .....


Guess we will find out in a couple week
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to 4stringAg • 9:15p, 10/24/24
I went to the Marist website and didn't see anything about exit polling. They dropped two more polls today showing Trump tied in Georgia and up in Arizona.
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SwigAg11
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9:17p, 10/24/24
AG
It is wild on how, depending on the source, varying which candidate is leading with Indies.
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sonnysixkiller
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9:21p, 10/24/24
AG
Seems like alot of this sounds just like the **** in 2020.
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agcrock2005
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In reply to sonnysixkiller • 9:33p, 10/24/24
AG
sonnysixkiller said:
Seems like alot of this sounds just like the **** in 2020.
Yep...not happy at all right now. Just nerves...
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AtticusMatlock
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12:17a, 10/25/24
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nortex97
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4:38a, 10/25/24
AG


I don't know this account but I am looking for more/good comparisons to 2016, as 2020/covid elections were so weird.
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will25u
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5:43a, 10/25/24
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Quo Vadis?
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5:51a, 10/25/24
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nortex97
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6:48a, 10/25/24
AG
Trump is sending Lara to Virginia to meet/rally with Youngkin, and I've been seeing lot's of 'hopeful' takes on their early voting so far (just fyi their EV started way back in September so a big chunk has already come in):






Personally, I'm not seeing where all the good numbers are, but maybe someone else is?
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tallgrant
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6:51a, 10/25/24
Flip the first dropdown from ballots requested to ballots received and I think you'll see what they're optimistic about.
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aezmvp
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:57a, 10/25/24
The VA GOP has not stressed early voting. I have not looked into their internals yet but there is a portion of the vote that will be in the suburbs of DC and especially around Norfolk and McClean that are your persuadables. I don't think they get over the hump unless we know a bunch of swing states by ED and that suppresses Dem ED vote and boosts GOP vote, but if Cao gets past Kaine, which would be a Youngkin like result, that's a net plus.
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nortex97
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In reply to tallgrant • 7:18a, 10/25/24
AG
tallgrant said:
Flip the first dropdown from ballots requested to ballots received and I think you'll see what they're optimistic about.
Ah, thanks, my mistake.


51-42 is pretty good for the GOP there, just not sure it holds up. Historically, though, the Dems win it with around 60-63% of the EV. Can't really see them getting into that area this coming week.



I do think NC can be taken off the map basically;


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Captn_Ag05
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7:38a, 10/25/24
AG
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to 4stringAg • 7:54a, 10/25/24
4stringAg said:
outofstateaggie said:
Making the rounds on several left leaning accounts.





What do we make of this given the EVs in these states have been reported as trending red? Maybe I'm misreading this but this suggests Harris is up big in these states in early voting because independents are breaking her way.
Based on the early vote numbers the only way this poll could be accurate is Independents breaking historically one way in favor of Kamala and there has been nothing in any poll anywhere suggesting any such thing.

I'd say this is purely a leftist sunshine pumping fake poll to try to bring back some enthusiasm to Kamala's side. Like celebrating a 4th down stop down 21 points in the 4th quarter.
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tallgrant
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8:05a, 10/25/24
This "poll" isn't on Marist's website. If you follow their links they did release something solely on North Carolina yesterday, but nothing on GA or AZ.

And their cross tabs showed NC LV indies favoring Trump 53-42.

Maybe there was some other weird exit poll, but as far as I can tell the only source is this tweet.
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nortex97
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8:08a, 10/25/24
AG
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