***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 1:12p, 10/24/24
gigemJTH12 said:
I am in full on "too good to be true" mode with all this info.

Need these next 2 weeks to fly by.

I need to know!


Yes. We're currently in the equivalent of Sept and October seasons of Aggie football, only to be crushed by November
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Toptierag2018
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In reply to Prosperdick • 1:20p, 10/24/24
Prosperdick said:
There needs to be a sticky post on the top of the politics board that reads "Yes, we know if R's that normally vote on ED vote early it doesn't change the overall number but it DOES for low propensity or first time voters."

Everyone thinks they have this keen insight that's been repeated at least 100 times on other threads.
It does more than that.

ED voters voting early helps clear up the bandwidth for R's on the ground. Less resources have to go to those who would wait to ED to vote, and can now be spent on low propensity voters.

"One bird in the hand is better than two birds in the bush"
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will25u
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1:22p, 10/24/24

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will25u
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1:24p, 10/24/24
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aggiehawg
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In reply to will25u • 1:26p, 10/24/24
AG
That's one hell of a tap dance!

Data is still data. Trends are still trends. Throwing up his hands saying it doesn't really mean anything is just a deflection.
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OdessaAg
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In reply to Silvertaps • 1:29p, 10/24/24
AG
Silvertaps said:
nortex97 said:
GOP has definitely bumped early voting up a lot vs. previous cycles nationally. Not clear what the real ramification is yet.

are there more R's that typically vote on ED voting early? The anticipation is R's typically turn out heavy on ED, so if they are voting early...wouldn't that flaw the assumption the election is a big win with EV numbers up for R's?


Exactly my thoughts and question as well.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Toptierag2018 • 1:29p, 10/24/24
AG
Toptierag2018 said:
Prosperdick said:
There needs to be a sticky post on the top of the politics board that reads "Yes, we know if R's that normally vote on ED vote early it doesn't change the overall number but it DOES for low propensity or first time voters."

Everyone thinks they have this keen insight that's been repeated at least 100 times on other threads.
It does more than that.

ED voters voting early helps clear up the bandwidth for R's on the ground. Less resources have to go to those who would wait to ED to vote, and can now be spent on low propensity voters.

"One bird in the hand is better than two birds in the bush"
Yes I realize that too but I was just commenting on the endless posts of "but the numbers won't change if the same people vote early instead of on ED."

There are a LOT of reasons to vote early and I'm glad the R's have finally embraced it. I hate Dems but I do respect their ground game and GOTV strategies that are LEGAL (although some shouldn't be). R's need to learn how to fight like the D's do.

Not coincidentally my wife and I are about to vote here in Prosper this afternoon.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to OdessaAg • 1:42p, 10/24/24
AG
Comes down to tranches of voters. That starts with registrations of new and low propensity voters. Those would not appear in public polling but would in internal polls. Right now those appear to be a net positive for Trump.

Anoter tranche are the very unhappy Biden 2020 voters. That includes the black and hispanic vote. They are crossing over to Trump in ever increasing numbers as Kamala is failing to seal the deal. It's not just a question of getting married to her as their candidate as they don't even want to date her, as the saying goes.

By contrast, Trump is not remotely losing voters in the opposite direction. So again, that's a net positive for Trump.

Third tranche: Former Never Trumpers. It is not fatal as it turns out, recovery is possible. Say between 5-10% of those are coming back to Trump? Again that takes away from Harris and that is true even if they vote Jill Stein or just do't vote top of the ticket. Still a net positive for Trump, IMO.

Add in the RFK, Jr. devotees as another tranche? Net positive.
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txags92
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In reply to OdessaAg • 1:43p, 10/24/24
AG
OdessaAg said:
Silvertaps said:
nortex97 said:
GOP has definitely bumped early voting up a lot vs. previous cycles nationally. Not clear what the real ramification is yet.

are there more R's that typically vote on ED voting early? The anticipation is R's typically turn out heavy on ED, so if they are voting early...wouldn't that flaw the assumption the election is a big win with EV numbers up for R's?


Exactly my thoughts and question as well.
It isn't hard to read the last 2-3 pages of the thread before asking a question that has been discussed several times. Not picking on you specifically because several people are doing the same, but the potential for R cannibalization of ED votes has been discussed several times in the last couple of pages. Responses have included documentation of lower D turnout relative to 2020 and higher R recruitment of low/no propensity voters being the driving force behind the changes in overall margin between the two in most areas. It remains to be seen whether overall turnout is lower and Rs do have fewer votes on ED or if there is a significant enthusiasm gap that results in Rs once again winning by margins well beyond the polling because of their ability to turn out the LP and new voters that wouldn't be captured by "likely voter" polling.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:48p, 10/24/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
Comes down to tranches of voters. That starts with registrations of new and low propensity voters. Those would not appear in public polling but would in internal polls. Right now those appear to be a net positive for Trump.

Anoter tranche are the very unhappy Biden 2020 voters. That includes the black and hispanic vote. They are crossing over to Trump in ever increasing numbers as Kamala is failing to seal the deal. It's not just a question of getting married to her as their candidate as they don't even want to date her, as the saying goes.

By contrast, Trump is not remotely losing voters in the opposite direction. So again, that's a net positive for Trump.

Third tranche: Former Never Trumpers. It is not fatal as it turns out, recovery is possible. Say between 5-10% of those are coming back to Trump? Again that takes away from Harris and that is true even if they vote Jill Stein or just do't vote top of the ticket. Still a net positive for Trump, IMO.

Add in the RFK, Jr. devotees as another tranche? Net positive.
One other very important tranche are the Biden 2020 voters who are not crossing over to Trump, but rather are either sitting out the election or voting independent/write in candidates.

I think this is where it really hurts Kamala, especially in the rust belt states as those Dems had no problem voting for "Scranton Joe" but do have a serious problem with Comrade Kamala. They see the influx of illegals as a competitive threat to their livelihoods and especially to their children's potential livelihoods.
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TheBonifaceOption
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:51p, 10/24/24
aggiehawg said:
That's one hell of a tap dance!

Data is still data. Trends are still trends. Throwing up his hands saying it doesn't really mean anything is just a deflection.

"Gop winning new voters" is one helluva way to say Trump is activating more young and low propensity voters than Harris.

That means then that Harris' has to convince mid and high propensity voters to turnout. And based on her returns thus far, there is little energy to vote for her. Do high propensity voters exist that are anti-trump, but also on the fence about Harris and need that little push to vote for her? Not really. If they are antitrump and haven't jumped in to Harris with both feet, chances are very little "new" messaging is going to convince them to vote.
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txags92
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In reply to Prosperdick • 1:52p, 10/24/24
AG
Prosperdick said:
Toptierag2018 said:
Prosperdick said:
There needs to be a sticky post on the top of the politics board that reads "Yes, we know if R's that normally vote on ED vote early it doesn't change the overall number but it DOES for low propensity or first time voters."

Everyone thinks they have this keen insight that's been repeated at least 100 times on other threads.
It does more than that.

ED voters voting early helps clear up the bandwidth for R's on the ground. Less resources have to go to those who would wait to ED to vote, and can now be spent on low propensity voters.

"One bird in the hand is better than two birds in the bush"
Yes I realize that too but I was just commenting on the endless posts of "but the numbers won't change if the same people vote early instead of on ED."

There are a LOT of reasons to vote early and I'm glad the R's have finally embraced it. I hate Dems but I do respect their ground game and GOTV strategies that are LEGAL (although some shouldn't be). R's need to learn how to fight like the D's do.

Not coincidentally my wife and I are about to vote here in Prosper this afternoon.
Something people really underestimate about 2016 is that the Rs working with Cambridge Analytica had very detailed profiles that guided their targeted recruitment of hundreds of thousands of low propensity or previous non-voters who were likely to lean R. You can debate whether their 3rd party use of Facebook's data gathered legally was against Facebook's rules or not in another thread, but it can't be denied that the R GOTV operation in key precincts was exceptionally effective using that data.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Prosperdick • 1:52p, 10/24/24
AG
Quote:
One other very important tranche are the Biden 2020 voters who are not crossing over to Trump, but rather are either sitting out the election or voting independent/write in candidates.

I think this is where it really hurts Kamala, especially in the rust belt states as those Dems had no problem voting for "Scranton Joe" but do have a serious problem with Comrade Kamala. They see the influx of illegals as a competitive threat to their livelihoods and especially to their children's potential livelihoods.
Good point. A vote denied for Kamala is still a vote denied.
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nortex97
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In reply to aggiehawg • 1:54p, 10/24/24
AG
Good points, and we've even had some 'never trumpers' or TDS sufferers here who have admitted to considering/voting for him this time.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 2:03p, 10/24/24
AG
Quote:
That means then that Harris' has to convince mid and high propensity voters to turnout. And based on her returns thus far, there is little energy to vote for her. Do high propensity voters exist that are anti-trump, but also on the fence about Harris and need that little push to vote for her? Not really. If they are antitrump and haven't jumped in to Harris with both feet, chances are very little "new" messaging is going to convince them to vote.
Exactly. And that tracks with I have been seeing on Halperin's streams the last month or so. He now has to screen his digital waiting to find a Harris voter. They may be watching but they no longer want to go on record to say who they are voting for. And people on his streams/platform are high information voters and thus much more likely to vote. Yet they are slinking away not giving a full throated support for Kamala. No enthusiasm for her.
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harge57
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:08p, 10/24/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Good points, and we've even had some 'never trumpers' or TDS sufferers here who have admitted to considering/voting for him this time.
I mean you can only sit on your fake moral high horse for so long.
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tremble
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2:16p, 10/24/24
AG
Miami-Dade flips R in EV. Has never happened before.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to tremble • 2:17p, 10/24/24
AG
tremble said:
Miami-Dade flips R in EV. Has never happened before.
I thought it flipped during 2022?
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Silvertaps
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:26p, 10/24/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
tremble said:
Miami-Dade flips R in EV. Has never happened before.
I thought it flipped during 2022?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:34p, 10/24/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
tremble said:
Miami-Dade flips R in EV. Has never happened before.
I thought it flipped during 2022?
Final results flipped, but this is first time Rs have led in early voting.
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aezmvp
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2:35p, 10/24/24
Early vote in MN starting to trend pretty red. Very hard to see if they're cannibalizing ED votes and where this is but very encouraging.
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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3:07p, 10/24/24
AG
All this cannibalizing talk is making Uncle Boozy very nervous.

Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
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will25u
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3:28p, 10/24/24
Arizona Republicans doing work...


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aggiehawg
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In reply to aezmvp • 3:35p, 10/24/24
AG
aezmvp said:
Early vote in MN starting to trend pretty red. Very hard to see if they're cannibalizing ED votes and where this is but very encouraging.
MN is a weird state. Conventional wisdom has always been that Minny-St. Paul controls how the state goes. This cycle, that urban area is lacking in EV participation. So a depressed vote in that area provides an opportunity for the GOP.

But since 2008, the Iron Range of that state has increasingly become redder and redder and those counties are doing well in EV. No reason to believe that will suddenly go away.
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RED AG 98
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In reply to Eso si, Que es • 3:39p, 10/24/24
AG
Eso si, Que es said:
gigemJTH12 said:
I am in full on "too good to be true" mode with all this info.

Need these next 2 weeks to fly by.

I need to know!
it will be 3 weeks before we know. I am setting the over/under at Nov 12
This is a great topic in it's own right. I'm all over the under there. I think it's so thorough a thrashing we know much sooner, 11/8 at the latest.
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LMCane
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5:04p, 10/24/24
good news we need to keep adding to our lead in Nevada early vote

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aggiehawg
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In reply to LMCane • 5:17p, 10/24/24
AG
Spicer was talking about Nevada recently, as was Rove. Rove, as usual was hedging but Spicer was absolutely giddy about the GOP EV in Clark and Washoe counties. Time is running out for Dems to catch up and surpass it, as well.
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aezmvp
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In reply to LMCane • 5:20p, 10/24/24
Down to 16400. Still miles ahead of normal which is about a 20k Dem lead. We will see tonight. 9 more days of EV.
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LMCane
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5:27p, 10/24/24
if we can have a lead amongst independents then we just have to keep matching democrat turnout to win

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aggiehawg
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6:04p, 10/24/24
AG
I am a little behind on Halperin's evening stream. Subject tonight is all about Pennsylvania. His digital waiting room is PA registered voters only.

Most are still undecided but still struggling to find a good reason to vote for Harris.

Then Halperin threw them a curve ball and asked if the race was for their governor, between Trump and Harris?

Nearly all of them said Trump without hesitation and forcefully. No doubt in their minds.

So, what does that say? They recognize Trump's skills would make him a great governor for PA? But still unsure about him being POTUS? Still executive skills betwee the two offices. Still the mean tweets but he would be a great governor?

I had a mind warp on that one. Too afraid of family, friends and neighbors to openly support Trump? That is afraid of the Mob? Back in the day, Nixon called those voters (his voters) 'the silent majority." Is that happening here?

Found that very intriguing. trump as POTUS? Hemming and hawing. Trump as Governor? Oh hell yeah!
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SwigAg11
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In reply to aggiehawg • 6:12p, 10/24/24
AG
Sounds like Trump voters to me as they are perfectly fine supporting him in a hypothetical.
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outofstateaggie
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6:21p, 10/24/24
AG
Making the rounds on several left leaning accounts.



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aggiehawg
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 6:27p, 10/24/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
Sounds like Trump voters to me as they are perfectly fine supporting him in a hypothetical.
My first thought as well.

I rag a lot on Halperin but that was a brilliant question and conducted by calling on them in rapid succession. They blurted the first thing that came to mind.

They will vote Trump. And part of that will be that questionto themselves. Why would I like him as Governor of the Commonwealth but not POTUS? What is the major difference there?

In ironic fashion, Halperin may have just sent a few torpedos into the already sinking USS Harris.
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TheBonifaceOption
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6:55p, 10/24/24
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Prosperdick
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 7:37p, 10/24/24
AG
TheBonifaceOption said:
Looks like that's over a thousand Dem votes gone!!!
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