Agreed. But the early numbers are encouraging and even if the polling is 50% or 75% more accurate Trump might get to 300+ EV.

Don't get complacent....

VOTE VOTE VOTE!

FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT!

SouthTex99 said:

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Great that R's are turning out early but will that take away from traditional strong Election Day finish? Or will strong EV go on top of strong finish? I guess time will tell.

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I've been wondering the same thing.

SouthTex99 said:

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Great that R's are turning out early but will that take away from traditional strong Election Day finish? Or will strong EV go on top of strong finish? I guess time will tell.

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Rich Baris (People's Pundit pollster) touched on this the other day. Fully 25% of the EV in PA did not vote in 2020. Meaning those lower propensity voters are being contacted, registered and showing up to vote. So for those voters (which public pollsters tend to miss) that is not cannibalizing election day votes.

During the post mortem of the 2016 election, the Trump campaign was very good at identifying disaffected voters within the Rust Belt states and getting them out to vote. And it was those formerly disaffected voters (why bother? Big city votes cancel me out everytime) that tipped the balance back then.

Florida Early Voting Turnout Update - 10.24

Let's take a quick look at Florida's current turnout.

🔴Republicans - 1,226,213
🔵Democrats - 1,023,418
🟡Others - 568,294

With the start of early voting, Republicans have netted about ~100,000 votes a day. Six additional rural…

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 24, 2024

Florida Update - Rs now 200k out in front. There are additional rural counties that haven't started EV, weird, but I would expect that to continue to grow. Total turnout will be roughly 10mm in Florida. So we're probably 25-27% of the vote in. Again depending on how the Indies break I expect the total win for Trump in Florida to be 1-1.25mm or so. In less than a decade this will have gone from battle ground state to a mini-mirror image California.

These numbers dropped over night. Dems now have a 30K lead in mail in Clark, cut 4K off GOP leas overall.

Updating blog now... https://t.co/ienvD9V5Dr

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 24, 2024

Nevada tightens up a bit. Atlas Intel is the most accurate pollster and using their 10/12-10/17 poll, a tie, (there are also a +1 Harris (no Indy cross tab) and +1 Trump out there (Indy +7 to Trump in cross tabs)) it has a +5% independent split for Trump. The independent vote is skewing somewhat younger but I don't have access to that break down nor the gender split. So still optimistic about Nevada and it is generally considered inside the campaigns as Kamala's BEST battleground state.

Wisconsin‼️
Early Voters Ballots

Mail in + in Person - Returned

🔴 Republicans 46.1% (+11.2)
201‘000 Votes

🔵 Democrats 34.9%
152‘300 Voteshttps://t.co/Zu6YUsNzQJ pic.twitter.com/O0SpYQcALK

— Roger Christen (@rodochri90) October 24, 2024

Wisconsin is showing a significant GOP advantage but it is VERY early there. Probably under 15% of their final turn out. Still very unusual for the GOP to have a ~50k advantage at this point.

PA Update. Republicans notching higher and higher on daily turnout %. ~43% today. Almost to 30% of total cast. 33% seems to be a magic number to people. 30% or higher will probably get Trump the win on ED.

Pennsylvania 🚂
Mail and absentee voting update
Total: 1,208,063 (+84,554 since Oct 23)

🔵 Democratic 60.1% | 726,619 votes (+41,895)
🔴 Republican 29.8% | 360,527 votes (+32,453)
⚪️ Other 10.1% | 120,917 votes (+10,206) pic.twitter.com/Func29u3Ri

— VoteHub (@VoteHubUS) October 24, 2024

PA MAIL RETURNS 10/24:

The trend continues: Rs are really continuing their momentum. The return rate closed big again and the swing with the overall returns picked up. Another great day for Rs.

D: 726,619 60.15% (Down 0.80%)
R: 360,527 29.84% (Up 0.64%)
Total RETURNS:… https://t.co/9MhHUiIngK

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) October 24, 2024

aggiehawg said:

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SouthTex99 said:

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Great that R's are turning out early but will that take away from traditional strong Election Day finish? Or will strong EV go on top of strong finish? I guess time will tell.

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Rich Baris (People's Pundit pollster) touched on this the other day. Fully 25% of the EV in PA did not vote in 2020. Meaning those lower propensity voters are being contacted, registered and showing up to vote. So for those voters (which public pollsters tend to miss) that is not cannibalizing election day votes.

During the post mortem of the 2016 election, the Trump campaign was very good at identifying disaffected voters within the Rust Belt states and getting them out to vote. And it was those formerly disaffected voters (why bother? Big city votes cancel me out everytime) that tipped the balance back then.

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In addition to the Rs turning out low/no propensity voters early, a big part of the gap between the lead the dems usually have and what they have right now is lack of D turnout in early/mail in voting. The R energy is being matched right now by D apathy and that spells big trouble for Harris if it continues to show that way.

North Carolina

Raw Votes(rounded to 1,000s):
Dem 2020 - 1,052,000
Dem 2024 - 683,000(-369,000)

Rep 2020 - 703,000
Rep 2024 - 687,000(-16,000)

This is what we are seeing nationwide. Compared to a favorable situation for Democrats in 2020, they aren't voting the same way they did in 2020. Republicans on the other hand are inline with their numbers from 2020.

So again, it is not that Republicans are overperforming... Republicans are status quo. Democrats are underperforming. Maybe all of these almost 400k voters are planning on voting later in EV, or on ED. But that is a lot more people to have to get to the polls on ED.

Not to mention, the Democrats were up 349,000 in 2020 and are currently behind by 4,000 in 2024 at the same point.

North Carolina Early Voting Day 7

2020:
🔵 42.5% (+14.1)
🔴 28.4%
🟡 28.7%

Total: 2,475,625

2024:
🔴 34.2% (+0.2)
🔵 34.0%
🟡31.3%

Total: 2,008,166

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 24, 2024

The other side of all that is what happens with the "other" category. That is a big chunk of votes and nobody really knows where they are going. If the split 50/50, its a wash. If they break hard for one side or the other, they can make up a lot of ground for one side or the other. So nobody should be feeling cocky. Get to the polls, get your friends and family to the polls, and run up the score.

Be very mindful about comparing the the Democrat mail in vs 2020. That election was still during Covid lockdowns and may have skewed their voting percentages vs in person.

New Hampshire early voting. 13 days to go. 2020 vs 2024

2020
🟦 74,295 (+45,267)
🟥 29,028

2024
🟦 14,976 (+2,745)
🟥 12,231

Holy Moly!

— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 24, 2024

GOP has definitely bumped early voting up a lot vs. previous cycles nationally. Not clear what the real ramification is yet.

📊 Nationwide Returns - 2024 vs. 2020:

2020:⁰🔵 Democrats: 17,992,444⁰🔴 Republicans: 10,174,747

2024 (so far):⁰🔵 9.3M Democrats⁰🔴 8.3M Republicans⁰⚪️ 3.5M Others

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 24, 2024

WOW, AZ R lead just leaped to 68,000 and EVEN THEN the Rs still are trailing Ds in turnout %, meaning there are still a higher % of Rs left to vote on election day than Ds.

— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchwe94560) October 24, 2024

Has Trump campaigned in NH? I haven't seen anything about him there.

will25u said:

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New Hampshire early voting. 13 days to go. 2020 vs 2024

2020
🟦 74,295 (+45,267)
🟥 29,028

2024
🟦 14,976 (+2,745)
🟥 12,231

Holy Moly!

— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) October 24, 2024

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I was talking about this a couple of days ago.

I think New Hampshire might be in play. There's a bigger Republican presence there than any other state in New England.

They've gone R before...

I am in full on "too good to be true" mode with all this info.

Need these next 2 weeks to fly by.

I need to know!

cman1494 said:

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Has Trump campaigned in NH? I haven't seen anything about him there.

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Biden was in NH on the 22nd. Dems sending surrogates there to try to shore up or GOTV. Race probably closer than polls indicate but not sure it's in serious play for Trump. It's a weird state.

The early voting does indicate fewer are excited to get out and vote for Harris.

Trying to get a sense of VA early voting. GOP early voting is a basket case. Independent mail in voting is up and both Dem and GOP is down slightly but the Dems are double the GOP. The early in person GOP is significantly outperforming their previous years. They are still behind on early voting but turnout overall is down 20-25% over 2020. That has not been the trend in many other states. NOVA has relatively high turn out in comparison to the rest of the state (outside GOP held CD1). I'm not predicting a GOP flip but I think Trump gets to 5% which cuts the 2020 deficit in half and similar to the 2016 results. Kaine has outspend Cao 3-1 so I expect them to hold that unless ED is just a wipe out.

Quote:

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Biden was in NH on the 22nd. Dems sending surrogates there to try to shore up or GOTV. Race probably closer than polls indicate but not sure it's in serious play for Trump. It's a weird state.

The early voting does indicate fewer are excited to get out and vote for Harris.

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Have to assume that Sununu either doesn't have the normal level of gubernatorial sway/ground game or he's holding back on Trump.

nortex97 said:

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GOP has definitely bumped early voting up a lot vs. previous cycles nationally. Not clear what the real ramification is yet.

📊 Nationwide Returns - 2024 vs. 2020:

2020:⁰🔵 Democrats: 17,992,444⁰🔴 Republicans: 10,174,747

2024 (so far):⁰🔵 9.3M Democrats⁰🔴 8.3M Republicans⁰⚪️ 3.5M Others

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 24, 2024

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are there more R's that typically vote on ED voting early? The anticipation is R's typically turn out heavy on ED, so if they are voting early...wouldn't that flaw the assumption the election is a big win with EV numbers up for R's?

Your questions align with my thoughts on the unknowns/variables with the GOP surge in EV (both mail and in person). It's so dramatic/broad at this point I don't think we will really be able to reach the conclusions that I otherwise personally want to.

A vote today is worth more than a potential vote tomorrow.

That said, these early voters need to be of the "don't usually vote" variety to make a real impact

NH needs to be the "Live like a plebe and Die" state now. Their motto doesn't suit their populace anymore.

The most interesting thing for me in the numbers is GOP turnout of first time or low propensity voters. Those numbers look healthy in several swing states, which means they aren't cannibalizing the reliable voting base so much.

I know in Nevada they are being encouraged to vote early. During a prior recent election some of the rural GOP heavy areas in northern Nevada were hit by a snowstorm on election day. I want to say it was 2022 but it may have been 2020.

gigemJTH12 said:

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I am in full on "too good to be true" mode with all this info.

Need these next 2 weeks to fly by.

I need to know!

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it will be 3 weeks before we know. I am setting the over/under at Nov 12

Silvertaps said:

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nortex97 said:

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GOP has definitely bumped early voting up a lot vs. previous cycles nationally. Not clear what the real ramification is yet.

📊 Nationwide Returns - 2024 vs. 2020:

2020:⁰🔵 Democrats: 17,992,444⁰🔴 Republicans: 10,174,747

2024 (so far):⁰🔵 9.3M Democrats⁰🔴 8.3M Republicans⁰⚪️ 3.5M Others

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 24, 2024

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are there more R's that typically vote on ED voting early? The anticipation is R's typically turn out heavy on ED, so if they are voting early...wouldn't that flaw the assumption the election is a big win with EV numbers up for R's?

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Obviously there is going to be a whole lot of cannibalization of early voting reducing the Election Day voting, but the hope and expectation is that the vast increase not only signifies more enthusiasm among Rs but also includes a small but significant number of previously unreached voters (or even better, people who voted Dem previously).

FTAG 2000 said:

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The most interesting thing for me in the numbers is GOP turnout of first time or low propensity voters. Those numbers look healthy in several swing states, which means they aren't cannibalizing the reliable voting base so much.

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And those voters may not be on any public pollster's radar, even as a Likely Voter. They are not being polled as a result. Same thing happened in 2016 when the public polls had Hillary way up. But Kellyanne Conway was very bullish on the Trump internal polls. They knew exactly who those voters were and could contact them and get them out to vote.

One of the latest dem tactics is to not send enough critical supplies (like ballot paper) to the polling places in heavily R districts on elections day. It prompts big lines and causes people to eventually give up and leave, suppressing the vote from those areas. They did it in Houston in 2022 and there was at least one person charged with a crime over it. Encouraging more people to vote early helps minimize the impacts of those kind of tactics if they happen on election day.

AtticusMatlock said:

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cman1494 said:

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Has Trump campaigned in NH? I haven't seen anything about him there.

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Biden was in NH on the 22nd. Dems sending surrogates there to try to shore up or GOTV. Race probably closer than polls indicate but not sure it's in serious play for Trump. It's a weird state.

The early voting does indicate fewer are excited to get out and vote for Harris.

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That's the trend across the board that should terrify Dems. There just isn't the enthusiasm on that side and why should there be?

Nobody voted for her, she was installed after the public realized the legacy media had been duping them about Biden's cognitive health. Everytime Kamala opens her trap she alerts new potential voters that she's an empty suit.

This should be 1980 and if it is there is still hope for this nation. If it's a nailbiter our country is likely lost because even if Trump narrowly wins it means the House is probably a toss-up and it will be non-stop impeachments once again.

Silvertaps said:

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nortex97 said:

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GOP has definitely bumped early voting up a lot vs. previous cycles nationally. Not clear what the real ramification is yet.

📊 Nationwide Returns - 2024 vs. 2020:

2020:⁰🔵 Democrats: 17,992,444⁰🔴 Republicans: 10,174,747

2024 (so far):⁰🔵 9.3M Democrats⁰🔴 8.3M Republicans⁰⚪️ 3.5M Others

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 24, 2024

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are there more R's that typically vote on ED voting early? The anticipation is R's typically turn out heavy on ED, so if they are voting early...wouldn't that flaw the assumption the election is a big win with EV numbers up for R's?

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Several graphics scattered throughout this thread and the "muh polls" thread. A few combined factors are encouraging at several of the swing states:

• R EV participation is outpacing D participation in previous cycles.
• D participation, in some cases, is down vs previous years.
• R EV participation from infrequent voters is up, both on a standalone basis and in relation to D EV participation.
• D EV participation has been increasing as a proportion of their total participation year over year.

It's encouraging in the aggregate, but definitely hard to say how much cannibalization their will be. The offset to the cannibalization will be the folks that vote on election day that might have otherwise turned away because of the longer lines.

Prosperdick said:

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There needs to be a sticky post on the top of the politics board that reads "Yes, we know if R's that normally vote on ED vote early it doesn't change the overall number but it DOES for low propensity or first time voters."

Everyone thinks they have this keen insight that's been repeated at least 100 times on other threads.

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Well considering all of the political pundits keep saying the same every damn day, the subject is omnipresent. Of course that would be reflected on this forum.

I watched Karl Rove this morning on Hemmer's show and he just finished up a two hour podcast with Halperin. He kept mentioning it in both.

I was not suprised but disappointed to hear (from Rove) that all he looks at are poll aggregators. This cycle that's just lazy to me. he doesn't believe 2020 should not be the base line because it was such an outlier with covid. but defaulting to a midterm of 2022 doesn't exactly make that much sense to me either.

jimscott85 said:

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Silvertaps said:

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nortex97 said:

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GOP has definitely bumped early voting up a lot vs. previous cycles nationally. Not clear what the real ramification is yet.

📊 Nationwide Returns - 2024 vs. 2020:

2020:⁰🔵 Democrats: 17,992,444⁰🔴 Republicans: 10,174,747

2024 (so far):⁰🔵 9.3M Democrats⁰🔴 8.3M Republicans⁰⚪️ 3.5M Others

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 24, 2024

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are there more R's that typically vote on ED voting early? The anticipation is R's typically turn out heavy on ED, so if they are voting early...wouldn't that flaw the assumption the election is a big win with EV numbers up for R's?

---

Several graphics scattered throughout this thread and the "muh polls" thread. A few combined factors are encouraging at several of the swing states:

• R EV participation is outpacing D participation in previous cycles.
• D participation, in some cases, is down vs previous years.
• R EV participation from infrequent voters is up, both on a standalone basis and in relation to D EV participation.
• D EV participation has been increasing as a proportion of their total participation year over year.

It's encouraging in the aggregate, but definitely hard to say how much cannibalization their will be. The offset to the cannibalization will be the folks that vote on election day that might have otherwise turned away because of the longer lines.

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Got it...thanks to you and other for the explanation.