***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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8:37p, 10/23/24
AG
Correct me if I'm wrong, but those much more familiar with these numbers than myself here have stated that anything above 30% split for the Republicans in Pennsylvania indicates a strong Trump win and we are currently north of 32%.

Am I right on this?
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Mostly Foggy Recollection
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In reply to 4 • 8:38p, 10/23/24
Yes
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aezmvp
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:39p, 10/23/24
So depending on the indy vote a 800,000 vote differential for the GOP. Kamala would have to win 75% of the indy vote in Florida. I'd say that's called the second the polls close.
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dreyOO
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In reply to Kellso • 8:42p, 10/23/24
Kellso said:

The early voting returns in places like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Detroit show that Kamala's campaign hasn't captured the hearts of Democrats in the inner city like Joe Biden did in 2020.

This is the most encouraging trend so far. The further they fall behind in early voting, the less likely this group of voters finds enthusiasm to vote for cackles.
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AtticusMatlock
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8:47p, 10/23/24
2020 was such a weird outlier in elections. A lot of the comparisons and data analysis people are doing their best to make educated guesses about what the return totals and everything else means for election day.

Recency bias is a thing, so while I'm very hopeful I always have to keep in check that just because things trended one way in the past doesn't mean they will always do so. We really don't know what these numbers mean.
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txags92
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:47p, 10/23/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
For those with their panties in a wad over PA…

M

The more important number there to me is -140k on the D side. That suggests a deep issue with enthusiasm and not just Rs cannibalizing Election Day votes.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:20p, 10/23/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Shapiro and Whitmer both want to be the democrat nominee in '28. I don't see either going above and beyond to help Kamala here.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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IDaggie06
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In reply to cman1494 • 9:35p, 10/23/24
AG
cman1494 said:
All the EV data looks good, but I can't help but worry that Republicans just won't turn out as well on Election Day and Harris will win. Maybe it's just my BAS kicking in.

Anyhow, did my part today and voted straight ticket R in Collin Co. today.
I think Republicans are more scared of Kamala than Biden. Can't imagine them staying home to let her win.
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to IDaggie06 • 9:37p, 10/23/24
AG
IDaggie06 said:
cman1494 said:
All the EV data looks good, but I can't help but worry that Republicans just won't turn out as well on Election Day and Harris will win. Maybe it's just my BAS kicking in.

Anyhow, did my part today and voted straight ticket R in Collin Co. today.
I think Republicans are more scared of Kamala than Biden. Can't imagine them staying home to let her win.
Biden came across as a moderate during the 2020 election, and then did a hard left turn after the election.

Kamala by contrast was raised by hardcore Marxists and is a full blown commie in full daylight.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 9:39p, 10/23/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
2020 was such a weird outlier in elections. A lot of the comparisons and data analysis people are doing their best to make educated guesses about what the return totals and everything else means for election day.

Recency bias is a thing, so while I'm very hopeful I always have to keep in check that just because things trended one way in the past doesn't mean they will always do so. We really don't know what these numbers mean.

I'm right there with you. That's why I've been looking more at the 2016 election while keeping shifting voter demographics in mind.

That being said, it absolutely helps in PA that the Rs have taken the 1million+ registration advantage that Dems had in 2016 to now being less than 300,000.
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will25u
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10:16p, 10/23/24
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will25u
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10:19p, 10/23/24
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e=mc2
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10:48p, 10/23/24
AG
I actually think that these trends are demoralizing for Democrats. Trump is up with demographic except white college educated women. That won't be enough in the end. Even with cheating.

And as soon as the left cries about the election, the GOP needs to pass bills fortifying our elections by passing laws stating only citizens have the right to vote.
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LMCane
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In reply to txags92 • 11:21p, 10/23/24
huge point and seems to be correct

as I keep stating, every day we can flood the early voting polls and make the gap closer in PA is critical for many reasons!
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LMCane
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In reply to will25u • 11:22p, 10/23/24
will25u said:

it would be important to learn any correlation between neighboring Nevada and Arizona...
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Captn_Ag05
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12:13a, 10/24/24
AG
On Nevada, from the "expert" on that state. Another strong day for the fascist

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aezmvp
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:07a, 10/24/24
The guy is a jack wagon but is the undisputed king of Nevada numbers. I think everyone looking at these numbers nationwide wonders how much election day voting is getting eaten by the early vote. The thing that stands out to me is that Rs are doing a good job at getting quadrant one and two voters (no history and low propensity) to vote. That's a big change from years past.

If indys stay close or break for Trump then this trend, which we're seeing in NV, FL, PA, TX, NC and WI, will basically create a doom loop for Dems some time next week. You'll see all the close Senate races and house races dump Harris. Right now every single one of those campaigns is pulling rip cords and making "I'm a centrist! I can work with Trump!" ads. If, and that's a big if, this continues through Friday or the latest Monday then you'll see them pay astronomical advertising rates to run those.
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AtticusMatlock
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1:50a, 10/24/24
[Nevada]

He goes into modeling Indie votes. If these percentages hold, Harris still loses even if she wins by 10% with independents. Clark County returns are still very low so there's no telling what may happen in the next week. Dems banking on mail-ins picking up and building a big firewall to overcome the GOP lead in rurals.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

Nevada getting a lot early ballots from rural GOPers, which is unusual for the state. I heard Red Eagle Politics talk about a snow issue in some rural counties during the last election that diminished the vote so good to see GOP pushing early voting. Some of that will cannibalize the election day turnout.

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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 5:01a, 10/24/24
AG
Their demographics and vote patterns are pretty different though from what I have read. Partly that is because AZ's major city, Maricopa County broadly, is just so dissimilar from Vegas/Reno, but also that there are fewer Californian expats in AZ (proportionally) vs. NV.

There's a national shift of 14 percent against the Dems? Trump is doing well/winning vs. KAMala but it's not going to be that huge.





I am getting to the point where I think the push by the GOP to vote early/bank votes has really changed things in NV in particular for them, but that it will be closer than what these numbers are making folks believe.
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TheBonifaceOption
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6:34a, 10/24/24
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outofstateaggie
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6:39a, 10/24/24
AG
More on NV.

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LuoJi
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7:04a, 10/24/24
Ppl really drinking the koolaid. Every swing state poll is a virtual tie.
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TheBonifaceOption
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In reply to LuoJi • 7:13a, 10/24/24
LuoJi said:
Ppl really drinking the koolaid. Every swing state poll is a virtual tie.

In a state of "3mil" voters a 20k lead isn't significant, you're right. However it is significant when Dems are usually in the lead by 200k at this point.

You know what the best indicator is for an individuals future votes? Past votes. It's 95% accurate.

So when you see trends occurring that are out of step with reality you gotta take not. Why aren't Dems showing up for Harris? Yes she may have a lead in some states, but she's not getting the support she needs for an effective firewall.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to LuoJi • 7:13a, 10/24/24
AG
LuoJi said:
Ppl really drinking the koolaid. Every swing state poll is a virtual tie.


I remember in 2020 some people thought it was going to be a Trump blowout, I am not getting optimistic until the votes are counted
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texagbeliever
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 7:19a, 10/24/24
P.U.T.U said:
LuoJi said:
Ppl really drinking the koolaid. Every swing state poll is a virtual tie.


I remember in 2020 some people thought it was going to be a Trump blowout, I am not getting optimistic until the votes are counted


Well trump is only about 6 points ahead of where he was at in 2020, so I think things might be a little different. Also kamala can't run as a moderate like basement Joe could.
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FaceMask
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7:28a, 10/24/24
[This thread isn't about voter fraud. Take that to another thread where it's in scope of the OP or start a new thread. Don't derail this one. Staff]
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Edited by Staff
Who?mikejones!
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In reply to LuoJi • 7:40a, 10/24/24
Nearly every pundit suggest anything less than +3 or so is bad news for dems
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 7:50a, 10/24/24
P.U.T.U said:
LuoJi said:
Ppl really drinking the koolaid. Every swing state poll is a virtual tie.


I remember in 2020 some people thought it was going to be a Trump blowout, I am not getting optimistic until the votes are counted
At this point polls are meaningless. We have a lot of early vote data. Polls poll "likely voters". They do not get low propensity voters which the data shows are showing up to the polls in big numbers. Looking at a poll now is a waste of time.
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Keller6Ag91
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7:51a, 10/24/24
AG
My wife and I voted yesterday and my youngest daughter (A&M Frosh) and her roommate. 4 for Trump in Texas.
Gig'Em and God Bless,

JB'91
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tallgrant
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8:25a, 10/24/24
Pennsylvania just posted their numbers. Democrats gained ballots but the overall Republican percentages went up again.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:56a, 10/24/24
AG
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Kellso
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In reply to e=mc2 • 9:09a, 10/24/24
e=mc2 said:
I actually think that these trends are demoralizing for Democrats. Trump is up with demographic except white college educated women. That won't be enough in the end. Even with cheating.

And as soon as the left cries about the election, the GOP needs to pass bills fortifying our elections by passing laws stating only citizens have the right to vote.
The Democrats and Kamala are throwing in the towel. They see the writing on the wall.
All they do is send emails to their supporters cajoling them to get to the polls.

This election is looking closer and closer to being 1980 all over again.
The race seemed close up until the last 3 weeks, and then Reagan just ran away from Jimmy Carter.

Trump and MAGA have waited 4 long years for vengeance over Biden and victory is almost near. To Donald Trump's credit he hasn't talked himself out of the Presidency like he did in 2020. His campaign has been remarkably disciplined. His embrace of Hip Hop Stars like 50cent have cut into the Democrats margins in the inner city.

Team Kamala is going to have to pull off a big comeback to win this thing.
The only thing that I would be concerned for if I Ioved Trump is that he hasn't cleared the 50% mark in the swing states that he needs to win.
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 9:13a, 10/24/24
AG
P.U.T.U said:
LuoJi said:
Ppl really drinking the koolaid. Every swing state poll is a virtual tie.


I remember in 2020 some people thought it was going to be a Trump blowout, I am not getting optimistic until the votes are counted
not until his hand is on the Bible
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to Kellso • 9:17a, 10/24/24
Kellso said:
e=mc2 said:
I actually think that these trends are demoralizing for Democrats. Trump is up with demographic except white college educated women. That won't be enough in the end. Even with cheating.

And as soon as the left cries about the election, the GOP needs to pass bills fortifying our elections by passing laws stating only citizens have the right to vote.
The Democrats and Kamala are throwing in the towel. They see the writing on the wall.
All they do is send emails to their supporters cajoling them to get to the polls.

This election is looking closer and closer to being 1980 all over again.
The race seemed close up until the last 3 weeks, and then Reagan just ran away from Jimmy Carter.

Trump and MAGA have waited 4 long years for vengeance over Biden and victory is almost near. To Donald Trump's credit he hasn't talked himself out of the Presidency like he did in 2020. His campaign has been remarkably disciplined. His embrace of Hip Hop Stars like 50cent have cut into the Democrats margins in the inner city.

Team Kamala is going to have to pull off a big comeback to win this thing.
The only thing that I would be concerned for if I Ioved Trump is that he hasn't cleared the 50% mark in the swing states that he needs to win.
In what sense, polling? Again, I'd pay zero attention to polls at this point.

I've ignored a lot of what seems like nonsense I've ready about "kamala panicked" or "throwing in the towel"....but these hail may slander stories they trotted out yesterday reeked of desperation and after years of this I don't see them having any effect.
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Kellso
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 9:29a, 10/24/24
Gyles Marrett said:
Kellso said:
e=mc2 said:
I actually think that these trends are demoralizing for Democrats. Trump is up with demographic except white college educated women. That won't be enough in the end. Even with cheating.

And as soon as the left cries about the election, the GOP needs to pass bills fortifying our elections by passing laws stating only citizens have the right to vote.
The Democrats and Kamala are throwing in the towel. They see the writing on the wall.
All they do is send emails to their supporters cajoling them to get to the polls.

This election is looking closer and closer to being 1980 all over again.
The race seemed close up until the last 3 weeks, and then Reagan just ran away from Jimmy Carter.

Trump and MAGA have waited 4 long years for vengeance over Biden and victory is almost near. To Donald Trump's credit he hasn't talked himself out of the Presidency like he did in 2020. His campaign has been remarkably disciplined. His embrace of Hip Hop Stars like 50cent have cut into the Democrats margins in the inner city.

Team Kamala is going to have to pull off a big comeback to win this thing.
The only thing that I would be concerned for if I Ioved Trump is that he hasn't cleared the 50% mark in the swing states that he needs to win.
In what sense, polling? Again, I'd pay zero attention to polls at this point.

I've ignored a lot of what seems like nonsense I've ready about "kamala panicked" or "throwing in the towel"....but these hail may slander stories they trotted out yesterday reeked of desperation and after years of this I don't see them having any effect.
At this point....the only thing that matters is which party gets their voters to the polls.

Trump not having 50% of the polls in the important states means that he does not currently have a majority of the votes in places like Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania....etc

Which way are the undecided and low propensity voters going to swing for?
4 years ago this board was convinced of Trump's re-election. The last thing you want to do is get over confident over early voting numbers.
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