Curious where you're getting the current counts from?
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
***Official Early Vote Tracking***
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Last: 3 mo ago by IDaggie06
So seems like we look good in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.aezmvp said:
So far roughly 27% of AZ is in and outside of the independents the GOP advantage is 50k. The GOP is behind in turnout as well with a growing lead because of the registration efforts. That means the GOP has the chance to increase their lead as they go on as well. The real question is where turnout overall is. 2020 was almost 80%, 2016 was just over 70%. That's about a 300k difference.
Also important to note is that the difference in 2020 in returned ballots was within a few thousand of the total difference. We will see about 75% of the ballots come in early if trends hold. Bottom line IF this keeps going on Kamala will need to win by 10 points on ED AND with independents. That seems.... unlikely.
If that sticks Trump only has to win one of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to lock it up.
You'll notice that Enten did the same thing in that video (apples to oranges comparison) that he did in the one the other day trying to claim Trump had lost a couple points with non-college whites.
He compared a 2024 poll not to polls from 2016 and 2020... but to EXIT POLLS from 2016 and 2020.
If he had compared the 2024 poll (with independents) to the same polls from 2016 and 2020 (with independents), it would have shown an even larger than +6 improvement with independents for Trump.
He compared a 2024 poll not to polls from 2016 and 2020... but to EXIT POLLS from 2016 and 2020.
If he had compared the 2024 poll (with independents) to the same polls from 2016 and 2020 (with independents), it would have shown an even larger than +6 improvement with independents for Trump.
Vance in '28
Correct. With NC, GA, NV, and AZ that should take Trump to 268. I can't imagine that Trump would get those 4 and not pick up one of the rust belt (MN, MI, PA, WI).
What's interesting is that Trump doesn't even NEED the West battleground states at all.aezmvp said:
Correct. With NC, GA, NV, and AZ that should take Trump to 268. I can't imagine that Trump would get those 4 and not pick up one of the rust belt (MN, MI, PA, WI).
All Trump has to do to win is lock down "SEC Country" + North Carolina (future SEC Country?) to get 251.
After the entire south is locked down, all he needs is the 19 from PA to hit 270.
GA + NC + PA wins it.
It just means more?
The main problem I see is rust belt currently has all democrat governors. A republican probably does have to win these states outside of a margin of fraud. 2 or 3 percent. Hopefully Shapiro feels spurned by being overlooked by Harris for VP and upset that she selected Waltz instead.
billydean05 said:
The main problem I see is rust belt currently has all democrat governors. A republican probably does have to win these states outside of a margin of fraud. 2 or 3 percent. Hopefully Shapiro feels spurned by being overlooked by Harris for VP and upset that she selected Waltz instead.
I don't think it was a matter of being spurned. I suspect he didn't want to hitch his wagon to Kamala.
My hope is he thinks he'd be one of the favorites in 2028 for the Dems, and having her lose and be out of the way is best case for him. i.e., he won't let the fraud happen up there, let Trump win, then she's out of the way for a Shapiro 2028 bid.
Saw a good discussion of whether Shapiro is likely to help Kamala or not. He is undoubtedly a bit bent about being spurned for Walz as her running mate. If she ends up winning, then any presidential hopes he might have are on hold until at least 2032, and presumably Walz would have the inside line as VP after that. So if he has presidential aspirations, it is far better for him if Kamala doesn't win in 2024, especially if she loses PA as part of that. It would let him claim that if she had just selected him, she would have won Pennsylvania.billydean05 said:
The main problem I see is rust belt currently has all democrat governors. A republican probably does have to win these states outside of a margin of fraud. 2 or 3 percent. Hopefully Shapiro feels spurned by being overlooked by Harris for VP and upset that she selected Waltz instead.
This is very concerning for Cruz. But is it true?
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4947749-cruz-allred-texas-senate-race-poll/amp/
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4947749-cruz-allred-texas-senate-race-poll/amp/
TexAgs Firestorm Survivor
11.25.23
#NeverForget
11.25.23
#NeverForget
He has been active, but not necessarily super active. The bottom line is that all political assets are activated in a Presidential election but the focus may be more on congressional races, It was a horrible decision but the gamble was that with the HQ just over the border, 2 senators, the governor and the PA machines (Pitt and Philly) would carry it and Michigan was too tight and they needed the Muslim vote there. And Walz was maybe more appealing and relatable to WI and MI rather than an East Coast/West Coast ticket.
The gamble will probably be a bad bet because Walz significantly underperformed and his baggage has become basically a net negative. It was dumb when Shapiro is clearly one of the best of the bench, a better politician with better instincts than Whitmer or Walz, but pissing off Shapiro was a poor idea.
The gamble will probably be a bad bet because Walz significantly underperformed and his baggage has become basically a net negative. It was dumb when Shapiro is clearly one of the best of the bench, a better politician with better instincts than Whitmer or Walz, but pissing off Shapiro was a poor idea.
All the EV data looks good, but I can't help but worry that Republicans just won't turn out as well on Election Day and Harris will win. Maybe it's just my BAS kicking in.
Anyhow, did my part today and voted straight ticket R in Collin Co. today.
Anyhow, did my part today and voted straight ticket R in Collin Co. today.
Don't think Kamala could handle a VP candidate smarter, more articulate and more appealing than her. That's why she picked Walz.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
You don't have anything to worry about. So far, the inner city is sitting this election out.cman1494 said:
All the EV data looks good, but I can't help but worry that Republicans just won't turn out as well on Election Day and Harris will win. Maybe it's just my BAS kicking in.
Anyhow, did my part today and voted straight ticket R in Collin Co. today.
The early voting returns in places like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Detroit show that Kamala's campaign hasn't captured the hearts of Democrats in the inner city like Joe Biden did in 2020.
The early voting totals are through the roof in the Republican leaning suburbs. If the election ended today Trump would be around 380 to 400 electoral votes.
Kamala still has a chance to win this election, but her time is running out. She only has about 10 days to close her case among the Democrats in this election.
Don't forget Miami...Kellso said:You don't have anything to worry about. So far, the inner city is sitting this election out.cman1494 said:
All the EV data looks good, but I can't help but worry that Republicans just won't turn out as well on Election Day and Harris will win. Maybe it's just my BAS kicking in.
Anyhow, did my part today and voted straight ticket R in Collin Co. today.
The early voting returns in places like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Detroit show that Kamala's campaign hasn't captured the hearts of Democrats in the inner city like Joe Biden did in 2020.
The early voting totals are through the roof in the Republican leaning suburbs. If the election ended today Trump would be around 380 to 400 electoral votes.
Kamala still has a chance to win this election, but her time is running out. She only has about 10 days to close her case among the Democrats in this election.
Maybe. She definitely seems thin skinned but I'm pretty sure she's not the only person making that call. I really think we need the MN, MI, WI to be shored up and that they can hold PA without Shapiro. Plus it's clear that there is great animus and distrust between Israel and the current administration and that a Jewish VP was a serious liability for their base and not just the base but the activist class that they rely on to do their GOTV activity if Iran/Israel exploded more than it already has.
Quite frankly the activist base in the Democratic party is more key than most people realize. They are employed in non-profits, NGOs and unions and elsewhere and are activated but that is still semi-volunteer work (they're 'volunteers' but are paid as if they're working for those organizations still) and if those people are not energized or turned off it will be a real problem.
Quite frankly the activist base in the Democratic party is more key than most people realize. They are employed in non-profits, NGOs and unions and elsewhere and are activated but that is still semi-volunteer work (they're 'volunteers' but are paid as if they're working for those organizations still) and if those people are not energized or turned off it will be a real problem.
any experts know how often the GOP leads in early voting in Arizona?
or what the results of early voting in AZ were back in 2016 and 2020?
or what the results of early voting in AZ were back in 2016 and 2020?
Arizona Early Vote Update:
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 23, 2024
🔴 382k (+53k)
🔵 329k
🟡 204k
Total: 916k
cman1494 said:
All the EV data looks good, but I can't help but worry that Republicans just won't turn out as well on Election Day and Harris will win. Maybe it's just my BAS kicking in.
Anyhow, did my part today and voted straight ticket R in Collin Co. today.
There have been some posts indicating the GOP is turning out some low propensity and new voters so hopefully the early voting is not fully cannibalizing the Election Day voting
From @longhornderek, analysis of the Texas electorate through day 2 of early voting using primary voting history (since Texas doesn’t have party registration.) His full report here: https://t.co/njVtNd1xLJ #txlege pic.twitter.com/Cgax32Q7vb
— Michael Li 李之樸 (@mcpli) October 23, 2024
If I'm reading this correctly, Republicans are up by several hundred thousand votes already in Texas compared to 2020 when at this point they were down by 170k?
Or are those numbers just the primary election turnout advantage in 2024 versus 2020?
Either way, it looks like a much more significant percentage of the voters in Texas this year so far voted in Republican primaries versus Democrat primaries. So the GOP / Cruz likely has a big cushion.
Or are those numbers just the primary election turnout advantage in 2024 versus 2020?
Either way, it looks like a much more significant percentage of the voters in Texas this year so far voted in Republican primaries versus Democrat primaries. So the GOP / Cruz likely has a big cushion.
GOP has adopted early voting and it's showing. Based on Dem election over election numbers it looks like a big enthusiasm gap.
Definitely Not A Cop said:
It just means more?
Georgia Bulldog starting defensive lineman wearing a MAGA hat & asking to get a 2nd one for head coach Kirby Smart!
— ℍ𝕒𝕞𝕚𝕝𝕥𝕠𝕟⚡️ (@HamDawg115) October 23, 2024
Speaking of Miami....Prosperdick said:Don't forget Miami...Kellso said:You don't have anything to worry about. So far, the inner city is sitting this election out.cman1494 said:
All the EV data looks good, but I can't help but worry that Republicans just won't turn out as well on Election Day and Harris will win. Maybe it's just my BAS kicking in.
Anyhow, did my part today and voted straight ticket R in Collin Co. today.
The early voting returns in places like Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Detroit show that Kamala's campaign hasn't captured the hearts of Democrats in the inner city like Joe Biden did in 2020.
The early voting totals are through the roof in the Republican leaning suburbs. If the election ended today Trump would be around 380 to 400 electoral votes.
Kamala still has a chance to win this election, but her time is running out. She only has about 10 days to close her case among the Democrats in this election.
OH MY GOD.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 23, 2024
Republicans lead the Miami-Dade early voting by over 15 points.
I am speechless. pic.twitter.com/8BxHDnMZDi
Vance in '28
Yep - R-D primary voter gap moved has moved 400k people to the positive compared to 2020 in Texas. I was worried about D turnout with all the news stories of record voting in Houston, Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio. It appears that Dems are voting at a lower propensity than 2020 in Texas similar to all the national trends. So Dems dependent on R cross-over if this keeps up.AtticusMatlock said:
If I'm reading this correctly, Republicans are up by several hundred thousand votes already in Texas compared to 2020 when at this point they were down by 170k?
Or are those numbers just the primary election turnout advantage in 2024 versus 2020?
Either way, it looks like a much more significant percentage of the voters in Texas this year so far voted in Republican primaries versus Democrat primaries. So the GOP / Cruz likely has a big cushion.
I just voted like a pirate.
RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
This seems good.
Based on primary voting history of early voters.
This is another interesting one. Every level of primary voting history has increased participation rate over 2020 for GOP and decreased for Dems.
This is another interesting one. Every level of primary voting history has increased participation rate over 2020 for GOP and decreased for Dems.
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It's early but Americans are up 10-0 over the Commies after the first two drives in Texas.
Republicans are definitely doing a better job than Democrats in Arizona getting their no/low prop voters banked in EV.
— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) October 23, 2024
I've had more time after the show to look at the latest. Here are the spreads:
0/4 - No Prop: R+10,077
1/4 - Low Prop: R+10,777
2/4 - Low Prop: R+12,123
this is why we need McCormick to win in PA and Hovde in WI to have some GOP rule in the midwestbillydean05 said:
The main problem I see is rust belt currently has all democrat governors. A republican probably does have to win these states outside of a margin of fraud. 2 or 3 percent. Hopefully Shapiro feels spurned by being overlooked by Harris for VP and upset that she selected Waltz instead.
Shapiro and Whitmer both want to be the democrat nominee in '28. I don't see either going above and beyond to help Kamala here.
Day 3 of Florida early voting - the in-person voting has consistently been R+27 or so. From now on, I will be doing statewide updates WITH mail combined.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 24, 2024
🔴 Republican: 43.6% (+7.3) [1,224,825]
🔵 Democratic: 36.3% [1,020,037]
🟡 No party: 18.1% [509,150]
2020: D+1.3
NOTABLE… pic.twitter.com/MVOy4eW8HH
Florida is currently 8 points to the right where early vote ended in 2020 and each day is adding 100,000+ more Republican votes than Democrat votes with 7 more days of early voting to go. Oh, and 13 counties haven't even started early voting yet and all of them are DEEP red. I may need to revise my Trump by 9-10 in Florida prediction up a bit.
For those with their panties in a wad over PA…
M
M
PA Mail-In returns just dropped…
— Cliff Maloney (@Maloney) October 24, 2024
2024 RETURNS
Dems: 684,724 (67.61%)
GOP: 328,074 (32.39%)
Compare that to 2020 at this time:
Dems: 822,599 (79.61%)
GOP: 210,636 (20.39%)
GOP returns are UP 118,000!!!!!!
The PA CHASE is working!https://t.co/QQ273nT4Ja @ThePAChase pic.twitter.com/fFrBaMqy4q
30% was the goal right?
There are some citing that as the magic number, yes
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