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Wasn't he staked outside her house all night just so he would know if anything happened? Then she called him and said someone shot her house? Watch his facial expressions and the way he looks at the "bullet" mark. He clearly doesn't believe her.
He knows that there haven't been any gunshots, but I don't think that necessarily means she is conning him. She might just be paranoid. They gave us a good reason to see why she might have thought there were gunshots. They made the newspapers "sound" like gunshots enough to make him get his gun ready because he thought they may have been gunshots too.
If they wanted to make it clear that she is conning him, they would have had him sit there all night in a silent neighborhood with nothing of note happening, and then her telling him the next day about all the loud gunshots in the area.
She might be conning him. She might be nuts. Hard to tell in part because the actress is terrible. Not that it matters either way. The granddaughter is really just there to need money to give his character a reason to take jobs of increased risk. Once they have established that, I don't really care to see them at all.