One last time for the cheap seats, I’ll explain exactly where I’m coming from in regards to Episode VII’s potential release date. If only for future reference. But also, after laying all this out, I’d truly like to hear any legitimate, well-thought-out arguments to the contrary. Because I just don’t see how some of these facts can be argued (though there could always be points I haven’t yet considered)...
● Disney already has The Avengers: Age of Ultron set for May 1, 2015. Even though the past six Star Wars movies have, in fact, all been released the second-half of May, there’s just no way Disney releases their only other billion-dollar franchise the same month. From a business perspective, how would that make any sense? Those two franchises play to the exact same demographic. SW would cut off whatever legs Avengers has, and it’ll have legs well into June. Save for the “Star-Wars-movies-always-come-out-in-May” rationale, I would love to hear a sane argument as to why Disney would release its two most lucrative franchises within four weeks of each other. I just can’t see anyone doing so with a straight face. And Avengers isn’t moving, either. Marvel is a well-oiled machine at this point, and their schedule won’t be thrown off-course, not even for SW.
● With May likely out of the question, that leaves June or July. Here’s the current release schedule for those two months, rounding out the biggest summer in movie history:
06.19.15 - Assassin's Creed
06.19.15 - Inside Out (Pixar)
06.26.15 - Terminator (reboot)
07.03.15 - Independence Day 2 (aka ID Forever Part 1)
07.10.15 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5
TBA:
- Batman vs. Superman
- Jurassic Park IV
- Star Wars Episode VII
Traditionally, July is the somewhat more "prestigious" blockbuster release month. If Episode VII doesn't hit in May, July would be the next likely month. But Disney already has Pirates 5 slated for July 10th. And even if they bumped P5 up to the beginning of July, if I had to guess, I’d say Batman vs. Superman takes the July 17 spot, seeing as that’s WB’s bread-and butter weekend; the same weekend both TDK and TDKR were released. SW obviously trumps all, but Batman vs. Superman is the ONE movie out of that bunch I don’t see getting out of its way. WB is going to hold strong to whatever date they settle on, especially if Bale actually ends up coming back.
So that would leave June for Episode VII, right? Well, right smack in the middle of June is yet another sure-to-be-huge Disney movie, Pixar’s Inside Out. And just like May and July, Disney isn’t going to put SW anywhere close to one of their own franchise movies. Could Disney move Inside Out? Sure. But since 2006, Disney has never not released a summer Pixar movie in June (save for Up, which came out May 29). Like WB’s mid-late July spot, Disney loves that mid-late June spot for Pixar, and I just don’t see them deviating.
The only thing I could see happening to make summer 2015 work is Disney claiming late July for Episode VII before WB claims it for Batman vs. Superman, forcing WB to release in June. And then Disney could just movie Pirates 5 to 2016. But if Disney was going to do that, wouldn’t they have done so already? They’ve had opportunity after opportunity to claim mid-late July for Episode VII, yet they still haven’t even hinted at release month for 2015. Which leads to my last point...
● Why even have to deal with Avengers 2, Inside Out, Terminator, ID42, Pirates 5, Batman vs. Superman and JP4 when you can have Christmas all to yourself? Since the SW prequels have come and gone, that mid-December release date has become THE spot for huge, "family" blockbusters. Not only have the LOTR/Hobbit/Avatar movies set that precedent, but Disney itself has set Tron: Legacy and 2014's Tomorrowland in that mid-December blockbuster spot as well. And yes, SW has always been a summer franchise. But the blockbuster release landscape has since changed. Look at all the movies listed in the opening of this paragraph. And then look at the movies named after. SW absolutely sways more toward the latter group, and fits the new LOTR/Avatar type and release model far better than any of the summer fare. Not to mention - and I can’t reiterate this enough - it’s a completely different team behind the scenes of SW this go-around. 20th Century Fox / George Lucas were the ones who originally positioned SW for May. Disney / Kathleen Kennedy are the ones positioning these news films. Completely different corporations / decision-makers, which arguably trumps any past traditions.
Regardless, there’s almost assuredly trouble behind the scenes. As referenced in that Badass Digest article I linked to a few posts up, if everything were going smoothly, Disney would have claimed a release date by this point. It’s that simple. And I’d say they could just move to 2016, but again, for whatever reason, Disney doubled-down on 2015 just this past weekend at the D23 Expo. Unless they completely go back on their word - which wouldn’t make any sense at this point - this movie is coming out in 2015. And sure, they could still somehow squeeze it in among their THREE other tentpole franchises currently scheduled for that summer, but as I’ve hopefully thoroughly explained, I just don’t see where/how. With The Hobbit films ending their run in December ’14, and the Avatar sequels not beginning again until December ’16, December ’15 is wide open. The perfect scenario, IMO, would be for Disney to release the first Episode VII teaser trailer with Lindelof/Bird’s Tomorrowland on December 12, 2014. Then, a year later, release Episode VII on December 11, 2015. That’s the date I’m sticking with, until proven otherwise, at which point I will gladly eat crow...
[This message has been edited by TCTTS (edited 8/15/2013 2:46p).]
