RED AG 98 said:

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SchizoAg said:

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AvidAggie said:

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Have an RPI killer today in UTA.

If we win we drop from around 10 to 14.

If we lose we drop from around 10 to 21.

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How do you know this? Curious.

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Can be deduced from the Direct Impact Games tab on Warren Nolan

ETA: TA filter blocking RPI screenshots now LOL

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This would be looking at it as if the UTA game was the only game being played todat. But it is not, so you have to incorporate the effects of the indirect games on that list and everyone else's game. So winning against UTA would drop us 25 rpi points. But, if all those indirect games work in our rpi would drop us 6 points. Then you'd have to look at everyone else's direct and indirect games and then you can see how the rpi standings check out.

You are correct. This is simplistic and only looks at the very next game for us in a vacuum. But that is still how the previous poster arrived at said conclusion .

The points gained or lost on Impact Games is correct; however the actual impact on RPI is unknowable without results from every other game which is a large combinatorial problem.

I dont want to be a major buzzkill but looking at the remaining schedule. We have 10 games, all against softies (by RPI and record).

IWord is #202 (16-25)
SC is #64 (22-20)
OM is #59 (24-19)
Msst is #86 (25-20)

None of these teams are over .500 in conference. While these teams are very beatable/sweepable on paper or with a sniff test, the impact they will have on the RPI worries me.

Other than the impact of our regular SEC record, we wont see a true resume builder until the SECT. Which means these next 10 games are really all liability.

Looking at our record per quadrant
1-50 (10-4)
51-100 (5-4)
101-150 (2-0)
151-301 (7-1)

It would be better to get that second quadrant record looking better. But again, its gonna impact the rpi especially when we drop a game.

The Debt said:

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I dont want to be a major buzzkill but looking at the remaining schedule. We have 10 games, all against softies (by record and RPI).

IWord is #202 (16-25)
SC is #64 (22-20)
OM is #59 (24-19)
Msst is #86 (25-20)

None of these teams are over .500 in conference. While these teams are very beatable/sweepable on paper or with a sniff test, the impact they will have on the RPI worries me.

Other than the impact of our regular SEC record, we wont see a resume builder until the SECT. Which means these next 10 games are really all liability.

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I wouldn't worry too much. Every other top 20 RPI team has similar RPI anchors on their schedule as well.

The question is: have they already played them and have meaningful series to close out the regular season?

We front loaded winners (as if we could guess SC would be down this year), if other teams back loaded winners, or even middle pack, they will have an edge.

Just win the games.

So if we win the last three series going 2-1 in each of those and beat Incarnate Word, how far will our RPI drop? No one on our remaining schedule has a top 50 RPI, and Incarnate Word is below 200.

threeanout said:

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So if we win the last three series going 2-1 in each of those and beat Incarnate Word, how far will our RPI drop? No one on our remaining schedule has a top 50 RPI, and Incarnate Word is below 200.

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RPI considers our record, our opponent's record, and our opponent's opponents record. Really challenging to calculate because of the all possible combinations.

Luke The Drifter said:

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threeanout said:

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So if we win the last three series going 2-1 in each of those and beat Incarnate Word, how far will our RPI drop? No one on our remaining schedule has a top 50 RPI, and Incarnate Word is below 200.

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And you also have to consider what everyone else around us is doing. Are they playing at home or on the road? Are they playing high or low RPI teams? What is their W-L record in those games? Even on a daily basis, and certainly on a 3-week basis, there is too much possibly fluidity to accurately predict the RPI

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I understand that and I know it can't be accurately predicted, but I guess my point is our RPI ranking seems to have peaked after last weekend barring a miraculous finish. We have (3) three game series where currently our opponents RPI is 60 (road), 64 (home), and 84 (home) and then a single game with Incarnate Word at home and their RPI is south of 200. So as far as RPI rankings we play the SEC's 13th, 14th, and 16th ranked teams. We won at home last night against UTA and dropped three spots.

We also get boosts when teams we beat win.

So Arky, Georgia, Vandy, and LSU winning, among others, helps us out.

Current SEC RPI numbers. We play 11th, 12th, and 14th best RPIs in the league down the stretch. Maybe he was already adding OU and Texas into the mix?

1. Tennessee
3. Georgia
4. Auburn
11. Vanderbilt
13. Texas A&M
14. LSU
20. Florida
28. Arkansas
40. Missouri
49. Alabama
60. Ole Miss
64. South Carolina
74. Kentucky
84. Mississippi State

Luke The Drifter said:

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Current SEC RPI numbers. We play 11th, 12th, and 14th best RPIs in the league down the stretch. Maybe he was already adding OU and Texas into the mix?

1. Tennessee
3. Georgia
4. Auburn
11. Vanderbilt
13. Texas A&M
14. LSU
20. Florida
28. Arkansas
40. Missouri
49. Alabama
60. Ole Miss
64. South Carolina
74. Kentucky
84. Mississippi State

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Must have been. I don't understand how we can beat UTA and drop three spots, and then finish 7-3 against weak RPI teams and move up three spots as you predict.

Keegan99 said:

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We also get boosts when teams we beat win.

So Arky, Georgia, Vandy, and LSU winning, among others, helps us out.

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And we get "unboosted" when teams like Arky lose to Mizzou St...... I assume it has to work both ways. Some of the SEC teams we beat will win and some will lose over the last three weeks in what will be some good matchups against high RPI teams.

threeanout said:

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Luke The Drifter said:

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Current SEC RPI numbers. We play 11th, 12th, and 14th best RPIs in the league down the stretch. Maybe he was already adding OU and Texas into the mix?

1. Tennessee
3. Georgia
4. Auburn
11. Vanderbilt
13. Texas A&M
14. LSU
20. Florida
28. Arkansas
40. Missouri
49. Alabama
60. Ole Miss
64. South Carolina
74. Kentucky
84. Mississippi State

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Must have been. I don't understand how we can beat UTA and drop three spots, and then finish 7-3 against weak RPI teams and move up three spots as you predict.

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The SEC teams are all better than UTA, plus 3 of the games are on the road. Win like we're capable of doing and we'll be fine.

Luke The Drifter said:

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threeanout said:

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Luke The Drifter said:

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Current SEC RPI numbers. We play 11th, 12th, and 14th best RPIs in the league down the stretch. Maybe he was already adding OU and Texas into the mix?

1. Tennessee
3. Georgia
4. Auburn
11. Vanderbilt
13. Texas A&M
14. LSU
20. Florida
28. Arkansas
40. Missouri
49. Alabama
60. Ole Miss
64. South Carolina
74. Kentucky
84. Mississippi State

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Must have been. I don't understand how we can beat UTA and drop three spots, and then finish 7-3 against weak RPI teams and move up three spots as you predict.

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The SEC teams are all better than UTA, plus 3 of the games are on the road. Win like we're capable of doing and we'll be fine.

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No doubt we will be fine. Interesting that we went from, no chance of making the NCAA tournament, to making the tourney, to hosting a regional, and now to be in consideration as a top eight seed. So RPI will become a factor for us one way or another, and it could be the determining factor on whether or not we are a top eight seed.

RPI and SOS are going to be fine Our standing in the SEC will determine if we are a national seed
We need Arky and UGa to lose. If both of those teams go 7-2 down the stretch the Ags are 4 th in the SEC and on the bubble for a national seed. JMHO I think the committee will continue to push back against SEC dominance and won't give the SEC 4 national seeds.
Most recent D1 baseball has national seeds
3 SEC
3 ACC
1 PAC
1 BDF

threeanout said:

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Luke The Drifter said:

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Current SEC RPI numbers. We play 11th, 12th, and 14th best RPIs in the league down the stretch. Maybe he was already adding OU and Texas into the mix?

1. Tennessee
3. Georgia
4. Auburn
11. Vanderbilt
13. Texas A&M
14. LSU
20. Florida
28. Arkansas
40. Missouri
49. Alabama
60. Ole Miss
64. South Carolina
74. Kentucky
84. Mississippi State

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Must have been. I don't understand how we can beat UTA and drop three spots, and then finish 7-3 against weak RPI teams and move up three spots as you predict.

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He's also assuming that some teams around us will go worse than 7-3 over the stretch / play worse teams as well. Teams like:

Georgia Southern (currently 7) plays against #79 Troy, #199 Little Rock (3 games), #245 UTA (3 games) so even with playing Georgia Tech and Mercer, their schedule is awful to end
Notre Dame (currently 8) plays against #162 Mich St, #110 Northwestern, #59 Pitt but does close with 3 against #12 Miami
Southern Miss (currently 9) plays again #60 Ole Miss, #63 Old Dominion, #55 UTSA, #56 Middle Tenn St

Emilio Fantastico said:

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It doesn't matter. If you look at the RPI needs report, all we have to do is win to finish Top 8.

The only difference is we may have to win a game or two more vs if we were finishing with top RPI teams. But those games are supposedly harder to win so it's a wash.

Besides, SEC record is going to determine hosting/seeding more than RPI for us.

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This. I'd rather have winnable SEC games. we go 7-2 and that 19-11 SEC record pops! not to mention possible champs of the premiere division in baseball.

gougler08 said:

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threeanout said:

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Luke The Drifter said:

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Current SEC RPI numbers. We play 11th, 12th, and 14th best RPIs in the league down the stretch. Maybe he was already adding OU and Texas into the mix?

1. Tennessee
3. Georgia
4. Auburn
11. Vanderbilt
13. Texas A&M
14. LSU
20. Florida
28. Arkansas
40. Missouri
49. Alabama
60. Ole Miss
64. South Carolina
74. Kentucky
84. Mississippi State

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Must have been. I don't understand how we can beat UTA and drop three spots, and then finish 7-3 against weak RPI teams and move up three spots as you predict.

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He's also assuming that some teams around us will go worse than 7-3 over the stretch / play worse teams as well. Teams like:

Georgia Southern (currently 7) plays against #79 Troy, #199 Little Rock (3 games), #245 UTA (3 games) so even with playing Georgia Tech and Mercer, their schedule is awful to end
Notre Dame (currently 8) plays against #162 Mich St, #110 Northwestern, #59 Pitt but does close with 3 against #12 Miami
Southern Miss (currently 9) plays again #60 Ole Miss, #63 Old Dominion, #55 UTSA, #56 Middle Tenn St

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Just for grins I took Nolan's top 15 RPI teams and ranked their remaining schedules based on opponent's RPI. So out of our ten remaining games, our opponent's RPI averages 82.5. I understand that RPI will change daily but the results are:

27.1 Vandy
32.7 Georgia
43.0 Oregon St.
47.0 Miami
47.6 Oregon St.
55.8 Florida St.
58.2 Southern Miss
62.4 Auburn
64.5 LSU
72.9 Tennessee
80.1 Notre Dame
80.1 Virginia Tech (all ten home games)
82.5 Texas A&M
109.6 Dallas Baptist
146.0 Georgia Southern

Nice data

Gotta like the fact that head=to-head we took 2 of 3 from Georgia, Vandy and LSU and run ruled DBU.

TAM85 said:

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Gotta like the fact that head=to-head we took 2 of 3 from Georgia, Vandy and LSU and run ruled DBU.

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Those are huge if we all end up grouped together.

2 wins this week, 2 spots lost in the RPI. Stupid LSU.