That's unfortunately painfully obvious when Republicans have the trifecta and are spending like Democrats. There are not enough serious people to solve what is an obvious problem that will become an emergency in the intermediate future.
Big beautiful bill updates (SIAP)
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You seem to be taking this personally.flown-the-coop said:Jeeper79 said:It is literally Moody's job to call these sorts of things. It is their product. If you owned a company, would you intentionally put out garbage? No. Because it would be shooting yourself in the face. And if you do it long enough, you lose the whole business.flown-the-coop said:Windy City Ag said:Quote:
I take it you have never dealt with any of these agencies?
He is just pointing out your degree of ignorance regarding consumer credit agencies like TransUnion, Experian, and Fair Isaac (FICO) and corporate credit research and ratings bureaus like Moody's, S&P, Kroll, Morningstar DBRS, etc.
Big insurers, pension funds, and institutional investors rely heavily (for better or worse) on credit agencies for scoring the degree of default risk in their bond holdings. There was a time to be angry at them . . .2008 . . . but in this case they are just stating the obvious and anyone that claims bias in this conclusion is either ignorant or delusional.
So since 2008 they cleaned up their act and now only reserve their hot takes to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating? Why now?
I think it's funny folks continue to put faith and trust in such flawed institutions. They are not independent, they are all beholden to the same geopolitical forces to start, hold, or change a narrative. They all make money serving the same industries and institutions they supposedly serve. Fine, but that doesn't make them independent in any sense of the word.
Next time a see a commercial for Charmin #1 rated toilet paper I can be assured a totally independent rating agency like Moody's was behind my choice of what to wipe my arse with. Or, I can know that their report is worth even less than my Charmin.
You say they should be in jail. For what? Saying something you didn't like?
It's their job? They are paid by the people who are in the same industry. Do people think Dan Campbell's football reviews are above reproach?
They should be in jail for their role in 2008. A mere $1 billion in penalties didn't seem to clean up their act.
Literally no point in their needing to adjust their rating on the US at this point. Those here claiming the debt ceiling is crashing on us, the debt ceiling is crashing on us may cheer this action by Moody's on. But all it is done is provide fodder to lib talking heads and create additional costs for Americans.
So no, I don't like their meddling here. It feels and almost certainly is politically motivated.
Probably letting thing go to hell much slower and less chaotically than the Dems would.
Unfortunately this is how human civilization works: we ignore and downplay a problem with only unpleasant solutions until we can't as a group because a large portion of us hopes or plans to push the worst effects of the final outcome of inaction on to others. It'll never actually happen is a pleasant self delusion that those who lack conscientiousness (leftists) can indulge in and sway others with. All debts come due eventually. Sometimes catastrophically.
Unfortunately this is how human civilization works: we ignore and downplay a problem with only unpleasant solutions until we can't as a group because a large portion of us hopes or plans to push the worst effects of the final outcome of inaction on to others. It'll never actually happen is a pleasant self delusion that those who lack conscientiousness (leftists) can indulge in and sway others with. All debts come due eventually. Sometimes catastrophically.
So hack projection from PWBM shows deficit increasing (likely ignoring or substantially underestimating increased revenues) and Moody, who stayed silent all during Biden, now 120 days into Trump admin downgrades?
And yes, appreciate the distinction without a difference regarding the credit agencies. They serve the same purpose for two different segments, but the racket is all the same. In fact, it was the consumer credit bureaus that were late to the subscription game where you pay for the rating you desire.
And yes, appreciate the distinction without a difference regarding the credit agencies. They serve the same purpose for two different segments, but the racket is all the same. In fact, it was the consumer credit bureaus that were late to the subscription game where you pay for the rating you desire.
We are all leftists now. It's time to stop blaming the left for this problem when this is the Republican plan.MouthBQ98 said:
Probably letting thing go to hell much slower and less chaotically than the Dems would.
Unfortunately this is how human civilization works: we ignore and downplay a problem with only unpleasant solutions until we can't as a group because a large portion of us hopes or plans to push the worst effects of the final outcome of inaction on to others. It'll never actually happen is a pleasant self delusion that those who lack conscientiousness (leftists) can indulge in and sway others with. All debts come due eventually. Sometimes catastrophically.
flown-the-coop said:Jeeper79 said:It is literally Moody's job to call these sorts of things. It is their product. If you owned a company, would you intentionally put out garbage? No. Because it would be shooting yourself in the face. And if you do it long enough, you lose the whole business.flown-the-coop said:Windy City Ag said:Quote:
I take it you have never dealt with any of these agencies?
He is just pointing out your degree of ignorance regarding consumer credit agencies like TransUnion, Experian, and Fair Isaac (FICO) and corporate credit research and ratings bureaus like Moody's, S&P, Kroll, Morningstar DBRS, etc.
Big insurers, pension funds, and institutional investors rely heavily (for better or worse) on credit agencies for scoring the degree of default risk in their bond holdings. There was a time to be angry at them . . .2008 . . . but in this case they are just stating the obvious and anyone that claims bias in this conclusion is either ignorant or delusional.
So since 2008 they cleaned up their act and now only reserve their hot takes to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating? Why now?
I think it's funny folks continue to put faith and trust in such flawed institutions. They are not independent, they are all beholden to the same geopolitical forces to start, hold, or change a narrative. They all make money serving the same industries and institutions they supposedly serve. Fine, but that doesn't make them independent in any sense of the word.
Next time a see a commercial for Charmin #1 rated toilet paper I can be assured a totally independent rating agency like Moody's was behind my choice of what to wipe my arse with. Or, I can know that their report is worth even less than my Charmin.
You say they should be in jail. For what? Saying something you didn't like?
It's their job? They are paid by the people who are in the same industry. Do people think Dan Campbell's football reviews are above reproach?
They should be in jail for their role in 2008. A mere $1 billion in penalties didn't seem to clean up their act.
Literally no point in their needing to adjust their rating on the US at this point. Those here claiming the debt ceiling is crashing on us, the debt ceiling is crashing on us may cheer this action by Moody's on. But all it is done is provide fodder to lib talking heads and create additional costs for Americans.
So no, I don't like their meddling here. It feels and almost certainly is politically motivated.
Gov was the major contributor to 2008, Bush's warnings in 2002 were ignored by Democrats…and the warnings continued to be ignored from that point.
Jeeper79 said:You seem to be taking this personally.flown-the-coop said:Jeeper79 said:It is literally Moody's job to call these sorts of things. It is their product. If you owned a company, would you intentionally put out garbage? No. Because it would be shooting yourself in the face. And if you do it long enough, you lose the whole business.flown-the-coop said:Windy City Ag said:Quote:
I take it you have never dealt with any of these agencies?
He is just pointing out your degree of ignorance regarding consumer credit agencies like TransUnion, Experian, and Fair Isaac (FICO) and corporate credit research and ratings bureaus like Moody's, S&P, Kroll, Morningstar DBRS, etc.
Big insurers, pension funds, and institutional investors rely heavily (for better or worse) on credit agencies for scoring the degree of default risk in their bond holdings. There was a time to be angry at them . . .2008 . . . but in this case they are just stating the obvious and anyone that claims bias in this conclusion is either ignorant or delusional.
So since 2008 they cleaned up their act and now only reserve their hot takes to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating? Why now?
I think it's funny folks continue to put faith and trust in such flawed institutions. They are not independent, they are all beholden to the same geopolitical forces to start, hold, or change a narrative. They all make money serving the same industries and institutions they supposedly serve. Fine, but that doesn't make them independent in any sense of the word.
Next time a see a commercial for Charmin #1 rated toilet paper I can be assured a totally independent rating agency like Moody's was behind my choice of what to wipe my arse with. Or, I can know that their report is worth even less than my Charmin.
You say they should be in jail. For what? Saying something you didn't like?
It's their job? They are paid by the people who are in the same industry. Do people think Dan Campbell's football reviews are above reproach?
They should be in jail for their role in 2008. A mere $1 billion in penalties didn't seem to clean up their act.
Literally no point in their needing to adjust their rating on the US at this point. Those here claiming the debt ceiling is crashing on us, the debt ceiling is crashing on us may cheer this action by Moody's on. But all it is done is provide fodder to lib talking heads and create additional costs for Americans.
So no, I don't like their meddling here. It feels and almost certainly is politically motivated.
It impacts my money. So yes, I take it personally. It impacts who is in charge of our Country, so yes I indeed take it personally.
Malibu said:
That's unfortunately painfully obvious when Republicans have the trifecta and are spending like Democrats. There are not enough serious people to solve what is an obvious problem that will become an emergency in the intermediate future.
Rs have a super thin majority and not enough to make it happen.
flown-the-coop said:Jeeper79 said:You seem to be taking this personally.flown-the-coop said:Jeeper79 said:It is literally Moody's job to call these sorts of things. It is their product. If you owned a company, would you intentionally put out garbage? No. Because it would be shooting yourself in the face. And if you do it long enough, you lose the whole business.flown-the-coop said:Windy City Ag said:Quote:
I take it you have never dealt with any of these agencies?
He is just pointing out your degree of ignorance regarding consumer credit agencies like TransUnion, Experian, and Fair Isaac (FICO) and corporate credit research and ratings bureaus like Moody's, S&P, Kroll, Morningstar DBRS, etc.
Big insurers, pension funds, and institutional investors rely heavily (for better or worse) on credit agencies for scoring the degree of default risk in their bond holdings. There was a time to be angry at them . . .2008 . . . but in this case they are just stating the obvious and anyone that claims bias in this conclusion is either ignorant or delusional.
So since 2008 they cleaned up their act and now only reserve their hot takes to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating? Why now?
I think it's funny folks continue to put faith and trust in such flawed institutions. They are not independent, they are all beholden to the same geopolitical forces to start, hold, or change a narrative. They all make money serving the same industries and institutions they supposedly serve. Fine, but that doesn't make them independent in any sense of the word.
Next time a see a commercial for Charmin #1 rated toilet paper I can be assured a totally independent rating agency like Moody's was behind my choice of what to wipe my arse with. Or, I can know that their report is worth even less than my Charmin.
You say they should be in jail. For what? Saying something you didn't like?
It's their job? They are paid by the people who are in the same industry. Do people think Dan Campbell's football reviews are above reproach?
They should be in jail for their role in 2008. A mere $1 billion in penalties didn't seem to clean up their act.
Literally no point in their needing to adjust their rating on the US at this point. Those here claiming the debt ceiling is crashing on us, the debt ceiling is crashing on us may cheer this action by Moody's on. But all it is done is provide fodder to lib talking heads and create additional costs for Americans.
So no, I don't like their meddling here. It feels and almost certainly is politically motivated.
It impacts my money. So yes, I take it personally. It impacts who is in charge of our Country, so yes I indeed take it personally.
Spending will impact our money
It was announced yesterday and the market went up. How's it affecting your money?flown-the-coop said:Jeeper79 said:You seem to be taking this personally.flown-the-coop said:Jeeper79 said:It is literally Moody's job to call these sorts of things. It is their product. If you owned a company, would you intentionally put out garbage? No. Because it would be shooting yourself in the face. And if you do it long enough, you lose the whole business.flown-the-coop said:Windy City Ag said:Quote:
I take it you have never dealt with any of these agencies?
He is just pointing out your degree of ignorance regarding consumer credit agencies like TransUnion, Experian, and Fair Isaac (FICO) and corporate credit research and ratings bureaus like Moody's, S&P, Kroll, Morningstar DBRS, etc.
Big insurers, pension funds, and institutional investors rely heavily (for better or worse) on credit agencies for scoring the degree of default risk in their bond holdings. There was a time to be angry at them . . .2008 . . . but in this case they are just stating the obvious and anyone that claims bias in this conclusion is either ignorant or delusional.
So since 2008 they cleaned up their act and now only reserve their hot takes to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating? Why now?
I think it's funny folks continue to put faith and trust in such flawed institutions. They are not independent, they are all beholden to the same geopolitical forces to start, hold, or change a narrative. They all make money serving the same industries and institutions they supposedly serve. Fine, but that doesn't make them independent in any sense of the word.
Next time a see a commercial for Charmin #1 rated toilet paper I can be assured a totally independent rating agency like Moody's was behind my choice of what to wipe my arse with. Or, I can know that their report is worth even less than my Charmin.
You say they should be in jail. For what? Saying something you didn't like?
It's their job? They are paid by the people who are in the same industry. Do people think Dan Campbell's football reviews are above reproach?
They should be in jail for their role in 2008. A mere $1 billion in penalties didn't seem to clean up their act.
Literally no point in their needing to adjust their rating on the US at this point. Those here claiming the debt ceiling is crashing on us, the debt ceiling is crashing on us may cheer this action by Moody's on. But all it is done is provide fodder to lib talking heads and create additional costs for Americans.
So no, I don't like their meddling here. It feels and almost certainly is politically motivated.
It impacts my money. So yes, I take it personally. It impacts who is in charge of our Country, so yes I indeed take it personally.
Just be honest. You think it makes MAGA look bad. It doesn't, but whatever.
Let me guess. Powell is also criminally negligent for not reducing the Fed rate?
Quote:
So hack projection from PWBM shows deficit increasing (likely ignoring or substantially underestimating increased revenues) and Moody, who stayed silent all during Biden, now 120 days into Trump admin downgrades?
Why do you think they are hack projections? Because you don't like the political implications?
There is no such thing as a perfect forecasting model and I have no doubt this conclusion will be revised when subsequent variables shift. There is a forecasting error range that is not insignificant.
All that being said, directionally the findings are correct for fairly obvious reasons. We are cutting potential revenues with an uncertain trade-off for future economic growth.
We are not cutting spending to any meaningful degree in this bill.
Deficit and debt get worse.
Why folks are so motivated to polish the turds served up by our congress is a mystery to me.
No, it makes America look bad. Assume you celebrate when your credit score goes down and it saves you money on borrowing?
Just be honest, it makes MAGA look bad and you love it.
Just be honest, it makes MAGA look bad and you love it.
You just excused their bias with a wave of the hand saying no forecasting model is perfect and revisions may be made later.
Which consulting company do you work for? Reminds me of an old financial review I sat in where it was explained that net income was down on decreasing margins.
The timing is suspect. The rating nothing more than something done to make money for Moody & friends.
That is my take. It is well informed and based. You are free to ignore it, disagree with it, laugh at it.
Which consulting company do you work for? Reminds me of an old financial review I sat in where it was explained that net income was down on decreasing margins.
The timing is suspect. The rating nothing more than something done to make money for Moody & friends.
That is my take. It is well informed and based. You are free to ignore it, disagree with it, laugh at it.
I hadn't even considered the political implications until people like you started moaning about it. Our "grade" went from 100 to 98 or 99. I'm not losing any sleep over it. Nothing in our underlying situation has actually changed since last week.flown-the-coop said:
No, it makes America look bad. Assume you celebrate when your credit score goes down and it saves you money on borrowing?
Just be honest, it makes MAGA look bad and you love it.
If I had an 850 credit score and it dropped to 820 or 830, I wouldn't care at all.
FTC on the US debt and growing deficits.
Quote:
You just excused their bias with a wave of the hand saying no forecasting model is perfect and revisions may be made later.
There is a difference between forecasting error and bias. Bias is manipulating projections to generate a pre-determined outcome. Can you show me where you think that happens? Can you show me where similar events in recent history generated outcomes contrary to the group's finding?
I am guessing the answer is no . . . try not to shoot the messenger. It is better to credibly and accurately poke holes in the message itself.
I will hang up and listen.
It makes America "look bad". But we deserve it.flown-the-coop said:
No, it makes America look bad. Assume you celebrate when your credit score goes down and it saves you money on borrowing?
Just be honest, it makes MAGA look bad and you love it.
This started well before Trump ran in 2000. Has nothing to do with "MAGA" and everything to do with the way America has been creeping further left, including Trump, fiscally over the last numerous decades.
Funnily, even with this downgrade, we have been and will continue to be, the best country to ever exist. We've been great for centuries.
If anyone is concerned with the downgrade, maybe they should start helping to fix it instead of claiming it's some conspiracy to make them look bad.
I mean… That's the most obvious way to go back up, right?
I mean… That's the most obvious way to go back up, right?
I am on a mobile but first place I would look and see how they did evaluating the first term TCJA and what the actual showed prior to COVID.
My understanding is that/ recollection is that the models and places like the supposedly nonpartisan CBO tend to underestimate growth factors on revenue & GDP.
My understanding is that/ recollection is that the models and places like the supposedly nonpartisan CBO tend to underestimate growth factors on revenue & GDP.
flown-the-coop said:
I am on a mobile but first place I would look and see how they did evaluating the first term TCJA and what the actual showed prior to COVID.
My understanding is that/ recollection is that the models and places like the supposedly nonpartisan CBO tend to underestimate growth factors on revenue & GDP.
CBO is garbage due to their policy. If Senator FTC has a proposal, he gets the CBO to "score" his proposal. The data? He gives it to them. No **** Senator FTC's plan gets a good score .
Senator FTC was voted out after one term for focusing solely on marijuana legalization and gambling.BigRobSA said:flown-the-coop said:
I am on a mobile but first place I would look and see how they did evaluating the first term TCJA and what the actual showed prior to COVID.
My understanding is that/ recollection is that the models and places like the supposedly nonpartisan CBO tend to underestimate growth factors on revenue & GDP.
CBO is garbage due to their policy. If Senator FTC has a proposal, he gets the CBO to "score" his proposal. The data? He gives it to them. No **** Senator FTC's plan gets a good score .
But to your point, its garbage like the rest of the studies, institutes, agencies and the like.
Back to the BBB, I think (and this is an obvious observation) we see Roy Boys get good movement on the medicare work requirements and maybe some additional cuts but in return the SALTy dogs will get even more on increased caps (and decreased phase outs).
Citizen FTC likes this result as it cuts spending and benefits me on the SALT as I have been capped on prop taxes the past few years.
Well, pragmatically, there's bad, and worse, and the conservative choice of those are the only choices we can get to is to take bad vs worse.
It's a human group behavioral phenomenon to generally deny catastrophe where prevention requires sacrifice until catastrophe arrives. It is a vulnerability of a democracy with such a broad electorate. Too many vote using short term outcomes as the primary motivation.
It's a human group behavioral phenomenon to generally deny catastrophe where prevention requires sacrifice until catastrophe arrives. It is a vulnerability of a democracy with such a broad electorate. Too many vote using short term outcomes as the primary motivation.
Our economy is essentially super heated by manipulation at this point. We're dangerously close to overheating and destroying the engine. It's just as likely tax cuts trigger mass inflation and credit derating that creates a huge depression as tax cuts spur growth. At some point the stock market has to be tied real value to keep consumer confidence. Or it crashes.WestAustinAg said:
Lower taxes spur growth. Growth powers the economy. And the government brings in hundreds of billions more in tax revenue even though tax rates are lower. This happens every time.
We need really smart tax cuts (or just continuing them instead of stopping them). And we need to massively cut government expenses. Massively. Like 3 or 4 trillion a year. Starting right now.
Some British aristocrat said the same thing sipping afternoon tea not long ago.BigRobSA said:
Funnily, even with this downgrade, we have been and will continue to be, the best country to ever exist. We've been great for centuries.
This bill just shows how politics has just become red team vs blue team with no regards to principle. 2 trillion dollar annual deficit and instead of outrage at the administration and congressional leadership, the ire is directed at the ones who won't get with the team.
These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.-Thomas Paine
Been a Republican almost since I was old enough to vote (I'll cop to a very stupid Vote for Anderson in the 1980 Presidential election), but this big beautiful debt bill may be the end of it. I'm not seeing much difference between the two parties now, at least in terms of spending.
Other than Massie (and maybe Roy), I don't see any principled conservatives amongst them.
Other than Massie (and maybe Roy), I don't see any principled conservatives amongst them.
Can someone explain the negative side of this to me like I'm 5?
All I know about it is the tax relief on OT which I think is great and will likely revive the trades that would be dying out in the years to come.
All I know about it is the tax relief on OT which I think is great and will likely revive the trades that would be dying out in the years to come.
This is where I am at. I admit I am not the brightest crayon in the box, but I wish we were closer to a balanced budget as promised on the campaign trail.northeastag said:
Been a Republican almost since I was old enough to vote (I'll cop to a very stupid Vote for Anderson in the 1980 Presidential election), but this big beautiful debt bill may be the end of it. I'm not seeing much difference between the two parties now, at least in terms of spending.
Other than Massie (and maybe Roy), I don't see any principled conservatives amongst them.
gigemJTH12 said:
Can someone explain the negative side of this to me like I'm 5?
All I know about it is the tax relief on OT which I think is great and will likely revive the trades that would be dying out in the years to come.
This…
And I am not interested in the CBO score…those are bull****…
I want to know the actual pros and cons…
gigemJTH12 said:
Can someone explain the negative side of this to me like I'm 5?
All I know about it is the tax relief on OT which I think is great and will likely revive the trades that would be dying out in the years to come.
We are spending more than we are bringing in.
Do this at home and see what happens.
YouBet said:gigemJTH12 said:
Can someone explain the negative side of this to me like I'm 5?
All I know about it is the tax relief on OT which I think is great and will likely revive the trades that would be dying out in the years to come.
We are spending more than we are bringing in.
Do this at home and see what happens.
Now wait…even with all of the cuts being made to multiple high cost policies, you're saying we are still spending more?
Or is that we are bringing in less because of all of the revenue cutting measures, and the net gain on paper is actually negative?
Everything I see in the bill highlights so far are exactly the types of things I voted in favor of…permanent tax cuts, more requirements put on Medicaid recipients, pushing the burden of certain entitlement programs more toward the states…
Please help dissect why you say it is more spending rather than less…
Congress didn't cut the stuff DOGE found.
I don't have the time to read all this, but how does the OT wages exclusion work? I'm sure it's "phased out" for high wage earners, but does anyone know how that phase out works?
Funky Winkerbean said:
Congress didn't cut the stuff DOGE found.
Which stuff specifically?
And I was under the impression that the Senate was going to make further changes to the bill that would address those items…is that false?
Funky Winkerbean said:
Congress didn't cut the stuff DOGE found.
A lot of those cuts aren't able to be done via reconciliation
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