***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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will25u
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In reply to UntoldSpirit • 9:49p, 11/4/24
UntoldSpirit said:
mslags97 said:

Dems are going to have to have massive improvement over their ED turnout from 2020…. To go along with R's not turning out like 2020…. Neither of which is likely to happen.
There IS a good reason to believe ED turnout for Rs will go down - the constant preaching to vote early by Trump and conservative media. That had to have an effect. I believe its going down. I know your argument. But it's just assumptions based on similar turnout numbers to 2020. That's not that convincing given 2020 was a covid election.

However, I don't really see any reason for Dem ED turnout to go up, other than cheating.


Overall, Republicans are -7mm nationwide for EV. Democrats are down about double that ~14.5mm.

The Democrats have a LOT more making up to do on ED than Republicans. Let's just put it that way.

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will25u
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9:50p, 11/4/24
IF this is true, put a fork in NC for Harris.

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johnnyblaze36
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In reply to txags92 • 9:52p, 11/4/24
AG
txags92 said:
agsalaska said:
Yea. Ok.

I'm sitting down to dinner and am not going to get in that debate. But it should be pretty obvious. Agree that it's a lot of low propensity voters. But you really think we not only found these voters but talked them into voting early. Without voting ourselves. That doesn't make any sense.

And the anecdotes are off the charts. The lines in Temple Tx this week voting early were not new voters.

We will see tomorrow.
You are ignoring the information people are putting in front of you. Scott Presler's organization (among others) has spent MONTHS signing up new voters, knocking on a million doors of new/low propensity voters in PA for example and talking them through how to request a ballot, following up to make sure they filled it out and returned it. So yes, the R ground game is outcompeting the D ground game for low propensity voters in the swing states. The R turnout is not down from 2020, it is even or ahead, and the difference is coming from those new/low P voters, leaving the people who vote frequently on ED to do so again. The D margins in the swing states are down because they are not turning out their low P voters at the same level they previously did.
THANK YOU SCOTT was even trending on X earlier today.




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BusterAg
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In reply to UntoldSpirit • 9:54p, 11/4/24
AG
UntoldSpirit said:
mslags97 said:

Dems are going to have to have massive improvement over their ED turnout from 2020…. To go along with R's not turning out like 2020…. Neither of which is likely to happen.
There IS a good reason to believe ED turnout for Rs will go down - the constant preaching to vote early by Trump and conservative media. That had to have an effect. I believe its going down. I know your argument. But it's just assumptions based on similar turnout numbers to 2020. That's not that convincing given 2020 was a covid election.

However, I don't really see any reason for Dem ED turnout to go up, other than cheating.


One thing to consider is that low frequency voters (people that have voted in 1 or 0 of the lat 4 elections) are significantly up in EV for the GOP. I also think GOP ED votes go way up, or at least stay the same, because there is even more enthusiasm this time then in 2020. At least under Obama, we didn't have 25% inflation. You want to GOTV for the GOP? Hit them in the pocketbook.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:56p, 11/4/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Just plugged the latest Arizona reports in.

Friday morning update from Arizona:



Republicans expand their lead another 20K and leading votes cast by over 8%. They are not also outpacing the Democrats on turnout for the first time. With a registration advantage of nearly 300,000 in Arizona now, obviously the gap will only grow in numbers in Republicans continue to keep pace or outpace Democrats in turnout.
Saturday update from Arizona



Republicans added to their lead again over Democrats and are now outvoting them by 183K votes. Republicans are also starting to get space in turnout, pushing their turnout advantage up to .9%. Democrats were turning out at a slightly higher rate until yesterday. As I mentioned in my update yesterday, with Republicans now having a nearly 300,000 registration advantage, it becomes very difficult to find a path to victory for Harris when the Republicans are also voting at a higher rate than Democrats.
Final early vote update from Arizona (the additional dump from Maricopa did not come in after all. It would have added to the R lead).

Republicans increased their early vote lead to 196,000 votes.



My final projection for Arizona:

Trump: 1,539,457 - 51.17%
Harris: 1,405,383 - 46.72%
Other: 63,529 - 2.11%




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will25u
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9:59p, 11/4/24
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:03p, 11/4/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Just plugged the latest Arizona reports in.

Friday morning update from Arizona:



Republicans expand their lead another 20K and leading votes cast by over 8%. They are not also outpacing the Democrats on turnout for the first time. With a registration advantage of nearly 300,000 in Arizona now, obviously the gap will only grow in numbers in Republicans continue to keep pace or outpace Democrats in turnout.
Saturday update from Arizona



Republicans added to their lead again over Democrats and are now outvoting them by 183K votes. Republicans are also starting to get space in turnout, pushing their turnout advantage up to .9%. Democrats were turning out at a slightly higher rate until yesterday. As I mentioned in my update yesterday, with Republicans now having a nearly 300,000 registration advantage, it becomes very difficult to find a path to victory for Harris when the Republicans are also voting at a higher rate than Democrats.
Final early vote update from Arizona (the additional dump from Maricopa did not come in after all. It would have added to the R lead).

Republicans increased their early vote lead to 196,000 votes.



My final projection for Arizona:

Trump: 1,539,457 - 51.17%
Harris: 1,405,383 - 46.72%
Other: 63,529 - 2.11%




Maybe Fox can call this one early tomorrow, the RIGHT way.
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TRADUCTOR
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In reply to will25u • 10:05p, 11/4/24
When The Going Gets Weird, the Weird Turn Pro -HST
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txags92
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In reply to UntoldSpirit • 10:12p, 11/4/24
AG
UntoldSpirit said:
mslags97 said:

Dems are going to have to have massive improvement over their ED turnout from 2020…. To go along with R's not turning out like 2020…. Neither of which is likely to happen.
There IS a good reason to believe ED turnout for Rs will go down - the constant preaching to vote early by Trump and conservative media. That had to have an effect. I believe its going down. I know your argument. But it's just assumptions based on similar turnout numbers to 2020. That's not that convincing given 2020 was a covid election.

However, I don't really see any reason for Dem ED turnout to go up, other than cheating.
If you would pay attention to the numbers of high propensity (meaning they vote in nearly every election) and low propensity (new voters and those who have voted in 1 of the last 4 elections), you will see that Rs are increasing their turnout of the latter. By definition, turning out a new or very infrequent voter is unlikely to take away an expected ED vote. Rs greatly increased their new and low propensity voters in EV, and have lots of high propensity voters left. They have very little reason to expect ED voting to go down.
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will25u
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10:24p, 11/4/24
I think I read something today that says they almost always all vote D.

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Cage_Stage
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In reply to txags92 • 10:27p, 11/4/24
AG
txags92 said:
UntoldSpirit said:
mslags97 said:

Dems are going to have to have massive improvement over their ED turnout from 2020…. To go along with R's not turning out like 2020…. Neither of which is likely to happen.
There IS a good reason to believe ED turnout for Rs will go down - the constant preaching to vote early by Trump and conservative media. That had to have an effect. I believe its going down. I know your argument. But it's just assumptions based on similar turnout numbers to 2020. That's not that convincing given 2020 was a covid election.

However, I don't really see any reason for Dem ED turnout to go up, other than cheating.
If you would pay attention to the numbers of high propensity (meaning they vote in nearly every election) and low propensity (new voters and those who have voted in 1 of the last 4 elections), you will see that Rs are increasing their turnout of the latter. By definition, turning out a new or very infrequent voter is unlikely to take away an expected ED vote. Rs greatly increased their new and low propensity voters in EV, and have lots of high propensity voters left. They have very little reason to expect ED voting to go down.


Where would I go to see these figures of high/low propensity voters in early voting?

I ask because the NBC report from late last week suggested the opposite, at least for PA. They reported 55,166 first-time voters were registered Ds (33,874 females + 21,292 males). And 33,013 first-time voters were registered Rs (16,334 females + 16,679 males). I know 1st-timers would just be a portion of "low propensity" voters. But that's still D+25% for a chunk of what would make up the low propensity early votes. Made me nervous.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/early-voting-data-shows-new-voters-group-swing-election-rcna178187
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will25u
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10:28p, 11/4/24
All the doomers out there... Read it once... Then again.... And even a third time.

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DTP02
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In reply to will25u • 10:54p, 11/4/24
AG
will25u said:
I think I read something today that says they almost always all vote D.



Trump outperforming 2020 by 17% on Election Day!
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btk55
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In reply to will25u • 10:56p, 11/4/24
AG
will25u said:
I think I read something today that says they almost always all vote D.

I had read that as well but not entirely accurate.

2008: 15 Obama, 6 McCain

2012: 5 Romney, 5 Obama

2016: 4 Clinton, 2 Trump, 1 Johnson, 1 Romney

2020: 5 Biden

Would love to see 3 or more Trump out of the 6 this year.
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fightingfarmer09
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11:16p, 11/4/24


Tap the brakes before spiking the football.
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txags92
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In reply to Cage_Stage • 11:35p, 11/4/24
AG
Cage_Stage said:
txags92 said:
UntoldSpirit said:
mslags97 said:

Dems are going to have to have massive improvement over their ED turnout from 2020…. To go along with R's not turning out like 2020…. Neither of which is likely to happen.
There IS a good reason to believe ED turnout for Rs will go down - the constant preaching to vote early by Trump and conservative media. That had to have an effect. I believe its going down. I know your argument. But it's just assumptions based on similar turnout numbers to 2020. That's not that convincing given 2020 was a covid election.

However, I don't really see any reason for Dem ED turnout to go up, other than cheating.
If you would pay attention to the numbers of high propensity (meaning they vote in nearly every election) and low propensity (new voters and those who have voted in 1 of the last 4 elections), you will see that Rs are increasing their turnout of the latter. By definition, turning out a new or very infrequent voter is unlikely to take away an expected ED vote. Rs greatly increased their new and low propensity voters in EV, and have lots of high propensity voters left. They have very little reason to expect ED voting to go down.


Where would I go to see these figures of high/low propensity voters in early voting?

I ask because the NBC report from late last week suggested the opposite, at least for PA. They reported 55,166 first-time voters were registered Ds (33,874 females + 21,292 males). And 33,013 first-time voters were registered Rs (16,334 females + 16,679 males). I know 1st-timers would just be a portion of "low propensity" voters. But that's still D+25% for a chunk of what would make up the low propensity early votes. Made me nervous.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/early-voting-data-shows-new-voters-group-swing-election-rcna178187
It was posted previously in this thread in the last day or so. The key to look at is what percentage of their early voting it represents, not the raw numbers. Ds in PA always have more EV than Rs in raw numbers. But they turned out about 700,000 fewer votes in EV than in 2020, while Rs stayed the same as 2020. The Rs numbers represented significantly more LP voters than Ds, meaning Ds will have to try to turn out more LP voters on ED to keep up with Rs. Check with Scott Preslers X…he may have the latest #s there.
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RED AG 98
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12:55a, 11/5/24
AG
Swing state EV totals. Looking pretty good.

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