***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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will25u
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In reply to UntoldSpirit • 9:49p, 11/4/24
UntoldSpirit said:
mslags97 said:

Dems are going to have to have massive improvement over their ED turnout from 2020…. To go along with R's not turning out like 2020…. Neither of which is likely to happen.
There IS a good reason to believe ED turnout for Rs will go down - the constant preaching to vote early by Trump and conservative media. That had to have an effect. I believe its going down. I know your argument. But it's just assumptions based on similar turnout numbers to 2020. That's not that convincing given 2020 was a covid election.

However, I don't really see any reason for Dem ED turnout to go up, other than cheating.


Overall, Republicans are -7mm nationwide for EV. Democrats are down about double that ~14.5mm.

The Democrats have a LOT more making up to do on ED than Republicans. Let's just put it that way.

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will25u
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9:50p, 11/4/24
IF this is true, put a fork in NC for Harris.

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johnnyblaze36
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In reply to txags92 • 9:52p, 11/4/24
AG
txags92 said:
agsalaska said:
Yea. Ok.

I'm sitting down to dinner and am not going to get in that debate. But it should be pretty obvious. Agree that it's a lot of low propensity voters. But you really think we not only found these voters but talked them into voting early. Without voting ourselves. That doesn't make any sense.

And the anecdotes are off the charts. The lines in Temple Tx this week voting early were not new voters.

We will see tomorrow.
You are ignoring the information people are putting in front of you. Scott Presler's organization (among others) has spent MONTHS signing up new voters, knocking on a million doors of new/low propensity voters in PA for example and talking them through how to request a ballot, following up to make sure they filled it out and returned it. So yes, the R ground game is outcompeting the D ground game for low propensity voters in the swing states. The R turnout is not down from 2020, it is even or ahead, and the difference is coming from those new/low P voters, leaving the people who vote frequently on ED to do so again. The D margins in the swing states are down because they are not turning out their low P voters at the same level they previously did.
THANK YOU SCOTT was even trending on X earlier today.




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BusterAg
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In reply to UntoldSpirit • 9:54p, 11/4/24
AG
UntoldSpirit said:
mslags97 said:

Dems are going to have to have massive improvement over their ED turnout from 2020…. To go along with R's not turning out like 2020…. Neither of which is likely to happen.
There IS a good reason to believe ED turnout for Rs will go down - the constant preaching to vote early by Trump and conservative media. That had to have an effect. I believe its going down. I know your argument. But it's just assumptions based on similar turnout numbers to 2020. That's not that convincing given 2020 was a covid election.

However, I don't really see any reason for Dem ED turnout to go up, other than cheating.


One thing to consider is that low frequency voters (people that have voted in 1 or 0 of the lat 4 elections) are significantly up in EV for the GOP. I also think GOP ED votes go way up, or at least stay the same, because there is even more enthusiasm this time then in 2020. At least under Obama, we didn't have 25% inflation. You want to GOTV for the GOP? Hit them in the pocketbook.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:56p, 11/4/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Just plugged the latest Arizona reports in.

Friday morning update from Arizona:



Republicans expand their lead another 20K and leading votes cast by over 8%. They are not also outpacing the Democrats on turnout for the first time. With a registration advantage of nearly 300,000 in Arizona now, obviously the gap will only grow in numbers in Republicans continue to keep pace or outpace Democrats in turnout.
Saturday update from Arizona



Republicans added to their lead again over Democrats and are now outvoting them by 183K votes. Republicans are also starting to get space in turnout, pushing their turnout advantage up to .9%. Democrats were turning out at a slightly higher rate until yesterday. As I mentioned in my update yesterday, with Republicans now having a nearly 300,000 registration advantage, it becomes very difficult to find a path to victory for Harris when the Republicans are also voting at a higher rate than Democrats.
Final early vote update from Arizona (the additional dump from Maricopa did not come in after all. It would have added to the R lead).

Republicans increased their early vote lead to 196,000 votes.



My final projection for Arizona:

Trump: 1,539,457 - 51.17%
Harris: 1,405,383 - 46.72%
Other: 63,529 - 2.11%




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will25u
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9:59p, 11/4/24
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:03p, 11/4/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Just plugged the latest Arizona reports in.

Friday morning update from Arizona:



Republicans expand their lead another 20K and leading votes cast by over 8%. They are not also outpacing the Democrats on turnout for the first time. With a registration advantage of nearly 300,000 in Arizona now, obviously the gap will only grow in numbers in Republicans continue to keep pace or outpace Democrats in turnout.
Saturday update from Arizona



Republicans added to their lead again over Democrats and are now outvoting them by 183K votes. Republicans are also starting to get space in turnout, pushing their turnout advantage up to .9%. Democrats were turning out at a slightly higher rate until yesterday. As I mentioned in my update yesterday, with Republicans now having a nearly 300,000 registration advantage, it becomes very difficult to find a path to victory for Harris when the Republicans are also voting at a higher rate than Democrats.
Final early vote update from Arizona (the additional dump from Maricopa did not come in after all. It would have added to the R lead).

Republicans increased their early vote lead to 196,000 votes.



My final projection for Arizona:

Trump: 1,539,457 - 51.17%
Harris: 1,405,383 - 46.72%
Other: 63,529 - 2.11%




Maybe Fox can call this one early tomorrow, the RIGHT way.
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TRADUCTOR
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In reply to will25u • 10:05p, 11/4/24
X was born on October 28, 2022 and should be a national holiday.
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txags92
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In reply to UntoldSpirit • 10:12p, 11/4/24
AG
UntoldSpirit said:
mslags97 said:

Dems are going to have to have massive improvement over their ED turnout from 2020…. To go along with R's not turning out like 2020…. Neither of which is likely to happen.
There IS a good reason to believe ED turnout for Rs will go down - the constant preaching to vote early by Trump and conservative media. That had to have an effect. I believe its going down. I know your argument. But it's just assumptions based on similar turnout numbers to 2020. That's not that convincing given 2020 was a covid election.

However, I don't really see any reason for Dem ED turnout to go up, other than cheating.
If you would pay attention to the numbers of high propensity (meaning they vote in nearly every election) and low propensity (new voters and those who have voted in 1 of the last 4 elections), you will see that Rs are increasing their turnout of the latter. By definition, turning out a new or very infrequent voter is unlikely to take away an expected ED vote. Rs greatly increased their new and low propensity voters in EV, and have lots of high propensity voters left. They have very little reason to expect ED voting to go down.
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will25u
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10:24p, 11/4/24
I think I read something today that says they almost always all vote D.

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Cage_Stage
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In reply to txags92 • 10:27p, 11/4/24
AG
txags92 said:
UntoldSpirit said:
mslags97 said:

Dems are going to have to have massive improvement over their ED turnout from 2020…. To go along with R's not turning out like 2020…. Neither of which is likely to happen.
There IS a good reason to believe ED turnout for Rs will go down - the constant preaching to vote early by Trump and conservative media. That had to have an effect. I believe its going down. I know your argument. But it's just assumptions based on similar turnout numbers to 2020. That's not that convincing given 2020 was a covid election.

However, I don't really see any reason for Dem ED turnout to go up, other than cheating.
If you would pay attention to the numbers of high propensity (meaning they vote in nearly every election) and low propensity (new voters and those who have voted in 1 of the last 4 elections), you will see that Rs are increasing their turnout of the latter. By definition, turning out a new or very infrequent voter is unlikely to take away an expected ED vote. Rs greatly increased their new and low propensity voters in EV, and have lots of high propensity voters left. They have very little reason to expect ED voting to go down.


Where would I go to see these figures of high/low propensity voters in early voting?

I ask because the NBC report from late last week suggested the opposite, at least for PA. They reported 55,166 first-time voters were registered Ds (33,874 females + 21,292 males). And 33,013 first-time voters were registered Rs (16,334 females + 16,679 males). I know 1st-timers would just be a portion of "low propensity" voters. But that's still D+25% for a chunk of what would make up the low propensity early votes. Made me nervous.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/early-voting-data-shows-new-voters-group-swing-election-rcna178187
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will25u
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10:28p, 11/4/24
All the doomers out there... Read it once... Then again.... And even a third time.

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DTP02
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In reply to will25u • 10:54p, 11/4/24
AG
will25u said:
I think I read something today that says they almost always all vote D.



Trump outperforming 2020 by 17% on Election Day!
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btk55
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In reply to will25u • 10:56p, 11/4/24
AG
will25u said:
I think I read something today that says they almost always all vote D.

I had read that as well but not entirely accurate.

2008: 15 Obama, 6 McCain

2012: 5 Romney, 5 Obama

2016: 4 Clinton, 2 Trump, 1 Johnson, 1 Romney

2020: 5 Biden

Would love to see 3 or more Trump out of the 6 this year.
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fightingfarmer09
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11:16p, 11/4/24


Tap the brakes before spiking the football.
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txags92
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In reply to Cage_Stage • 11:35p, 11/4/24
AG
Cage_Stage said:
txags92 said:
UntoldSpirit said:
mslags97 said:

Dems are going to have to have massive improvement over their ED turnout from 2020…. To go along with R's not turning out like 2020…. Neither of which is likely to happen.
There IS a good reason to believe ED turnout for Rs will go down - the constant preaching to vote early by Trump and conservative media. That had to have an effect. I believe its going down. I know your argument. But it's just assumptions based on similar turnout numbers to 2020. That's not that convincing given 2020 was a covid election.

However, I don't really see any reason for Dem ED turnout to go up, other than cheating.
If you would pay attention to the numbers of high propensity (meaning they vote in nearly every election) and low propensity (new voters and those who have voted in 1 of the last 4 elections), you will see that Rs are increasing their turnout of the latter. By definition, turning out a new or very infrequent voter is unlikely to take away an expected ED vote. Rs greatly increased their new and low propensity voters in EV, and have lots of high propensity voters left. They have very little reason to expect ED voting to go down.


Where would I go to see these figures of high/low propensity voters in early voting?

I ask because the NBC report from late last week suggested the opposite, at least for PA. They reported 55,166 first-time voters were registered Ds (33,874 females + 21,292 males). And 33,013 first-time voters were registered Rs (16,334 females + 16,679 males). I know 1st-timers would just be a portion of "low propensity" voters. But that's still D+25% for a chunk of what would make up the low propensity early votes. Made me nervous.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/early-voting-data-shows-new-voters-group-swing-election-rcna178187
It was posted previously in this thread in the last day or so. The key to look at is what percentage of their early voting it represents, not the raw numbers. Ds in PA always have more EV than Rs in raw numbers. But they turned out about 700,000 fewer votes in EV than in 2020, while Rs stayed the same as 2020. The Rs numbers represented significantly more LP voters than Ds, meaning Ds will have to try to turn out more LP voters on ED to keep up with Rs. Check with Scott Preslers X…he may have the latest #s there.
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RED AG 98
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12:55a, 11/5/24
AG
Swing state EV totals. Looking pretty good.

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nortex97
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3:50a, 11/5/24
AG
Trump campaign closes out with bullish analysis of battleground EV:
Quote:
The Trump campaign is growing bullish over data it's seeing showing Republicans gaining ground with the early vote in battleground states relative to where the party stood in the 2020 election cycle.

The campaign sees signs that new and infrequent voters are breaking more toward Republicans than Democrats relative to four years ago, based on the latest indications from the four battleground states that reveal partisan registration during early voting: Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, according to a source in the camp.

In addition, "In those states, Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not voted yet" despite early voting being closed in nearly every state "and many not having even requested a mail ballot," the source said, suggesting the Dems' numbers might not be as strong this time around.

Even in the other three battleground states where data about party affiliation in early voting is not available, the Trump campaign is seeing a number of bright spots that could foreshadow a favorable outcome, the source said.

Here are some of the data that allies of the campaign have been privately touting, mixed with other early-voter information for added context:
From the comments:
Quote:
A Republican surge in early voting is encouraging but by itself would not be 100% good news as it would be possible that it is just election day voters voting early, no net gain.

But Democrat votes are way way down. That is horrible news for Kamala. If she loses over one million votes simply in the battle ground states then the election is over and Trump wins going away.

One reason I think the dem early votes are way down is we don't have mass mailout without a ballot request in some of these states like in 2020. Low propensity voters are far less likely to vote if the ballot doesn't just appear in their mailbox. it also makes it far harder for either party to manufacture ballots out of thin air.

One last point. They say that election day voters usually lose 1-2% due to circumstances and end up not voting. If these people are early voting then those votes are already banked. Again, if the Rs had not lost that 1-2% in 2020 Trump is president.

It ain't over til its over but all the data looks overwhelmingly great for Trump and the GOP

Quote:
All of your points are good. The drop in overall early votes in Pennsylvania from 3.1 million in 2020 to 1.7 million in 2024 is amazing.
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nortex97
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4:23a, 11/5/24
AG
Final NV EV analysis. (Yes, I know Ralston clown world played it out himself anyway, while commenting about his disdain for Trump. He passionately doesn't want his words to be used for enthusiasm for the GOP, period).

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McInnis 03
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In reply to fightingfarmer09 • 4:25a, 11/5/24
AG
fightingfarmer09 said:


Tap the brakes before spiking the football.


The fact of the matter was if Trump got 1 vote here it was a rocked boat. He got 3. It's not a trend but it's not meaningless either.
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nortex97
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5:17a, 11/5/24
AG
PA grim for Harris per Halperin based on EV:


Gonna phase out of posting on this thread today but this is specific to EV so probably worth it. Great to see democrats like him (of course he's not the worst one by any stretch) accepting reality early in the day.
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Barnyard96
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7:28a, 11/5/24
AG

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will25u
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7:42a, 11/5/24
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SpreadsheetAg
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:45a, 11/5/24
AG
nortex97 said:
PA grim for Harris per Halperin based on EV:


Gonna phase out of posting on this thread today but this is specific to EV so probably worth it. Great to see democrats like him (of course he's not the worst one by any stretch) accepting reality early in the day.
Ouch, that Bob Casey Ad at the end is brutal.... the Dem promoting 3rd parties and aligning with Trump.
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Prosperdick
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7:48a, 11/5/24
AG

Look at that long line full of women who only care about abortion and protecting "muh freedom." Oh wait, mostly men and the women don't look like Karens.
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to Prosperdick • 8:02a, 11/5/24
AG
Prosperdick said:

Look at that long line full of women who only care about abortion and protecting "muh freedom." Oh wait, mostly men and the women don't look like Karens.
Not a mask in sight. I saw three of them when I early voted in San AnMexico.

Person Not Capable of Pregnancy
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4stringAg
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8:12a, 11/5/24
AG
Thanks for all the efforts on this thread! On to the election day thread!
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jr15aggie
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8:51a, 11/5/24
AG
Thank you all for this thread... extra thanks to those posting from X because I don't have an account and it was great to see all the data from the "experts".

Appreciate y'all letting me chime in with my opinions as well. I typically stay away from posting in the Politics forum but I always love election time. It was a good time!
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NPH-
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In reply to will25u • 9:38a, 11/5/24
AG
will25u said:


So educate an idiot here, how is being down 400k+ a good thing in PA? I want to believe he has a shot, but seeing that margin is a little intimidating.

Again, I admittedly don't understand how this could be a good thing (maybe lower than it's been in recent history?)
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aggietony2010
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In reply to NPH- • 9:40a, 11/5/24
AG
NPH- said:
will25u said:


So educate an idiot here, how is being down 400k+ a good thing in PA? I want to believe he has a shot, but seeing that margin is a little intimidating.

Again, I admittedly don't understand how this could be a good thing (maybe lower than it's been in recent history?)


It was 1.2 million (I think) in 2020.
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TXAGGIES
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In reply to NPH- • 9:40a, 11/5/24
NPH- said:
will25u said:


So educate an idiot here, how is being down 400k+ a good thing in PA? I want to believe he has a shot, but seeing that margin is a little intimidating.

Again, I admittedly don't understand how this could be a good thing (maybe lower than it's been in recent history?)
I think he was down 1.0M last time
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4stringAg
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In reply to NPH- • 9:40a, 11/5/24
AG
NPH- said:
will25u said:


So educate an idiot here, how is being down 400k+ a good thing in PA? I want to believe he has a shot, but seeing that margin is a little intimidating.

Again, I admittedly don't understand how this could be a good thing (maybe lower than it's been in recent history?)
Dems build a blue firewall with early voting. The firewall in PA in 2020 was 1M+. With it being only 400K now, the theory is that Rs will outvote them substantially on Election Day to overtake that firewall relatively easily
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Rapier108
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In reply to NPH- • 9:41a, 11/5/24
NPH- said:
will25u said:


So educate an idiot here, how is being down 400k+ a good thing in PA? I want to believe he has a shot, but seeing that margin is a little intimidating.

Again, I admittedly don't understand how this could be a good thing (maybe lower than it's been in recent history?)
IIRC, in 2020 the Democrats were up over 1 million. That would mean it appears the Republicans did better in early voting, the Democrats did a lot worse, or both.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Legal Custodian
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In reply to NPH- • 9:41a, 11/5/24
AG
I'm probably responding cynically because I'm not sure how you could not know this when following this thread by now.

But the lead for D's back in 2020 from early voting was around 1.1million or so. So it is precipitously less.
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mslags97
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In reply to NPH- • 9:41a, 11/5/24
AG
NPH- said:
will25u said:


So educate an idiot here, how is being down 400k+ a good thing in PA? I want to believe he has a shot, but seeing that margin is a little intimidating.

Again, I admittedly don't understand how this could be a good thing (maybe lower than it's been in recent history?)


He was down a million in 2020 and lost by just 80k. So 600,000 is my CB more than 80,000
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