Captn_Ag05 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Just plugged the latest Arizona reports in.

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Friday morning update from Arizona:



Republicans expand their lead another 20K and leading votes cast by over 8%. They are not also outpacing the Democrats on turnout for the first time. With a registration advantage of nearly 300,000 in Arizona now, obviously the gap will only grow in numbers in Republicans continue to keep pace or outpace Democrats in turnout.

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Saturday update from Arizona



Republicans added to their lead again over Democrats and are now outvoting them by 183K votes. Republicans are also starting to get space in turnout, pushing their turnout advantage up to .9%. Democrats were turning out at a slightly higher rate until yesterday. As I mentioned in my update yesterday, with Republicans now having a nearly 300,000 registration advantage, it becomes very difficult to find a path to victory for Harris when the Republicans are also voting at a higher rate than Democrats.

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Just plugged the latest Arizona reports in.

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Friday morning update from Arizona:



Republicans expand their lead another 20K and leading votes cast by over 8%. They are not also outpacing the Democrats on turnout for the first time. With a registration advantage of nearly 300,000 in Arizona now, obviously the gap will only grow in numbers in Republicans continue to keep pace or outpace Democrats in turnout.

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Saturday update from Arizona



Republicans added to their lead again over Democrats and are now outvoting them by 183K votes. Republicans are also starting to get space in turnout, pushing their turnout advantage up to .9%. Democrats were turning out at a slightly higher rate until yesterday. As I mentioned in my update yesterday, with Republicans now having a nearly 300,000 registration advantage, it becomes very difficult to find a path to victory for Harris when the Republicans are also voting at a higher rate than Democrats.

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Small update from Arizona as a Pima and a few small rurals reported numbers today. Maricopa will not report again until tomorrow (Republicans currently are outvoting Dems by around 100,000 votes in Maricopa FYI).

Republicans add around 5K to their lead in votes cast and have surpassed a 1% turnout advantage now as well.

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Raw numbers tell the tale here. Just exceptionally impressive stuff. pic.twitter.com/HHpsrPTs4v

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) November 3, 2024

BREAKING: North Carolina Republicans have now EXCEEDED their TOTAL 2020 early + mail-in voting...

Percent of 2020 early vote:
🔴 REP: 100.88% (+17.68)
🔵 DEM: 83.19%

Quite the discrepancy.

Data: @MichaelPruser

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

JUST IN: Florida Republicans have now EXCEEDED their FINAL 2020 early + mail-in vote totals... trend here is apparent.

Percent of 2020 total early vote:
🔴 REP: 101.27% (+27.34)
🔵 DEM: 73.92%

Data: @FLVoiceNews

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

2b2. In person voting (without TX) up 16% (+19% previously)
2c. Overall early voting down 16% (-16% previously)
3. The in person numbers are being posted two different ways bc in 2020, TX had an extra week of EVing tacked on, meaning that 4M had already voted in 2020
(2/)

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) November 3, 2024

5. Tomorrow, EVing shuts down everywhere else, although 2 FL counties (Pinellas and Taylor) still are EVing, thanks to Hurricane Helene
6. Special thanks to @DubickiRyan, @sfalmy, @electproject, and @TheDataTrust for their work !
(4/4) pic.twitter.com/9KLu8Y8tNW

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) November 3, 2024

4stringAg said:

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Trump could also win WI as long as he wins GA, NC, AZ and get to 270

I think Halperin was saying they'd be shocked to see Kamala take WI at this point

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Our team is crunching the numbers here in AZ.

Here's the good news. We not only have more Republican voters left who have NOT voted yet, but we have significantly more high-prop R voters left (!!)

We have ~190k advantage in early voting with more meat left on the bone than the…

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) November 4, 2024

Some more good news...

Male and Female first-time Republican voters in Arizona have MASSIVELY out voted Democrats in early voting.

We still must show up and VOTE. pic.twitter.com/uNmes8Njf9

— Evan Kilgore 🇺🇸 (@EvanAKilgore) November 4, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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I am crunching numbers myself and just ran the numbers for Arizona and Nevada on turnout compared to 2020.

Here is what that shows

Arizona

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 79% of their 2020 early vote

Nevada

Republicans: 100% of their total 2020 early vote
Democrats: 80% of their total 2020 early vote

To go with the Florida and NC numbers I posted earlier, anyone notice anything? It is shockingly similar in each state.

Florida

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 74% of their 2020 early vote

North Carolina

Republicans: 101% of their 2020 early vote
Democrats: 83% of their 2020 early vote

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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You can never be sure, but there is some good data out there about Republicans turning out 0 and 1 voters (voted 0 or 1 time in last two mid terms and last two presidential election). Even if you are cannibalizing some, why aren't the Democrat voters turning out at same rate? And Democrats historically do not vote at same level as Republicans on election day. This tells me that Republicans are getting their early voters our and Democrats are not.

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BQRyno said:

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I'm just an average idiot, but it looks like the lead in republican early voting isn't due to republicans turning out early in some crazy way that would indicate possibly cannibalizing votes. It looks like the lead is due to lack of dem excitement and turnout.

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dreyOO said:

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BQRyno said:

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I'm just an average idiot, but it looks like the lead in republican early voting isn't due to republicans turning out early in some crazy way that would indicate possibly cannibalizing votes. It looks like the lead is due to lack of dem excitement and turnout.

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I was worried about that at first, but I think there are a ton of lower propensity voters showing up early. It's fantastic b/c it reduces the chances for shenanigans on ED without a chance to properly challenge/investigate. Time is on our side in that scenario.

Someone above mentioned worrying about the large number of independents in NC; I've got to believe that not only do they break with the more enthused side (GOP in this case), but I also think people will vote with their wallets in a tie-breaker scenario. Wasn't it CNN that said 28% of the country thinks we're on the right track? Yeah, I'm thinking the indies break two thirds to the right.

These early voting numbers are fantastic. Polls matter so much less when you see actual results like this banked.

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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You can never be sure, but there is some good data out there about Republicans turning out 0 and 1 voters (voted 0 or 1 time in last two mid terms and last two presidential election). Even if you are cannibalizing some, why aren't the Democrat voters turning out at same rate? And Democrats historically do not vote at same level as Republicans on election day. This tells me that Republicans are getting their early voters out and Democrats are not.

The data in other states is harder because no party registration. But these are four important states (FL is not a battleground anymore, but still). I find it hard to believe that this would be happening in isolation to just these states.

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SwigAg11 said:

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dreyOO said:

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BQRyno said:

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I'm just an average idiot, but it looks like the lead in republican early voting isn't due to republicans turning out early in some crazy way that would indicate possibly cannibalizing votes. It looks like the lead is due to lack of dem excitement and turnout.

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I was worried about that at first, but I think there are a ton of lower propensity voters showing up early. It's fantastic b/c it reduces the chances for shenanigans on ED without a chance to properly challenge/investigate. Time is on our side in that scenario.

Someone above mentioned worrying about the large number of independents in NC; I've got to believe that not only do they break with the more enthused side (GOP in this case), but I also think people will vote with their wallets in a tie-breaker scenario. Wasn't it CNN that said 28% of the country thinks we're on the right track? Yeah, I'm thinking the indies break two thirds to the right.

These early voting numbers are fantastic. Polls matter so much less when you see actual results like this banked.

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General wisdom is that if a party is having low enthusiasm turnout, then the Indies who lean to that party will also have lower turnout.

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clw04 said:

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SwigAg11 said:

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dreyOO said:

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BQRyno said:

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I'm just an average idiot, but it looks like the lead in republican early voting isn't due to republicans turning out early in some crazy way that would indicate possibly cannibalizing votes. It looks like the lead is due to lack of dem excitement and turnout.

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I was worried about that at first, but I think there are a ton of lower propensity voters showing up early. It's fantastic b/c it reduces the chances for shenanigans on ED without a chance to properly challenge/investigate. Time is on our side in that scenario.

Someone above mentioned worrying about the large number of independents in NC; I've got to believe that not only do they break with the more enthused side (GOP in this case), but I also think people will vote with their wallets in a tie-breaker scenario. Wasn't it CNN that said 28% of the country thinks we're on the right track? Yeah, I'm thinking the indies break two thirds to the right.

These early voting numbers are fantastic. Polls matter so much less when you see actual results like this banked.

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General wisdom is that if a party is having low enthusiasm turnout, then the Indies who lean to that party will also have lower turnout.

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Democrats looking at early voting numbers are entirely basing their hope on Independents and Republicans vote for Kamala based on "abortion" and "democracy".

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