***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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outofstateaggie
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7:21p, 11/1/24
AG
Ralston waving the white flag?

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Who?mikejones!
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7:32p, 11/1/24
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SwigAg11
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7:33p, 11/1/24
AG
Looks like they finally finished up in the dark!



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4stringAg
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 7:39p, 11/1/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
Looks like they finally finished up in the dark!





Shouldn't be that hard. Feels like suppression efforts big time which they were already sued for and still just kept playing games.
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SwigAg11
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8:03p, 11/1/24
AG
This is a few hours old but didn't see it posted yet.

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Isosceles_Kramer
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In reply to 4stringAg • 8:12p, 11/1/24
Yep. The cry baby libs/Dems screaming voter suppression continue to make it difficult for people to vote in person.

Makes you think
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will25u
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10:00p, 11/1/24
Again. Rs are voting in line with 2020, maybe a little lower.

Democrats are NOT voting. We are late in the game now, and that huge deficit is going to have to come and vote on ED, and that is not what Ds are good at.

Really looking good for Rs, as long as they turn out on ED as usual.



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Isosceles_Kramer
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In reply to will25u • 10:05p, 11/1/24
Don't tease me bro
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FireAg
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In reply to will25u • 10:06p, 11/1/24
AG
Let's go PA…deliver us from evil…
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will25u
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10:06p, 11/1/24
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will25u
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10:09p, 11/1/24
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to will25u • 10:10p, 11/1/24
AG
Interesting.

40% of his final rallies in NC
30% in PA
10% in MI

Nothing in WI

That would lead one to believe NC is still up for grabs.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to will25u • 10:12p, 11/1/24
AG
will25u said:
Is he saying those are the 2020 numbers they finished EV with or the total election?
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will25u
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In reply to MemphisAg1 • 10:14p, 11/1/24
MemphisAg1 said:
Interesting.

40% of his final rallies in NC
30% in PA
10% in MI

Nothing in WI

That would lead one to believe NC is still up for grabs.


I was listening to someone tonight, can't remember who... They think Trump wins PA, and NC will be closer than PA.

Counties that were affected by the hurricane are not voting at numbers previously. Something people on here were worried about. So hopefully they show up on ED.
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will25u
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 10:16p, 11/1/24
I am not sure. Maybe final? Here is another for just EV for 2020.

Actually there is a pretty wide difference between the two. Not sure which is right?


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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to will25u • 10:19p, 11/1/24
AG
In vote count form…

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SwigAg11
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In reply to will25u • 10:20p, 11/1/24
AG
will25u said:
MemphisAg1 said:
Interesting.

40% of his final rallies in NC
30% in PA
10% in MI

Nothing in WI

That would lead one to believe NC is still up for grabs.


I was listening to someone tonight, can't remember who... They think Trump wins PA, and NC will be closer than PA.

Counties that were affected by the hurricane are not voting at numbers previously. Something people on here were worried about. So hopefully they show up on ED.
This was posted on the polls thread, but it looks like the hurricane devastated areas of NC are keeping pace with their 2020 numbers. You need to follow his link, and then read through the section titled What Harris Must Do to Win.

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4stringAg
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In reply to will25u • 10:25p, 11/1/24
AG
will25u said:
Again. Rs are voting in line with 2020, maybe a little lower.

Democrats are NOT voting. We are late in the game now, and that huge deficit is going to have to come and vote on ED, and that is not what Ds are good at.

Really looking good for Rs, as long as they turn out on ED as usual.





I hope it's truly a D turnout and enthusiasm issue and not just a Covid year phenomenon that created higher Dem turnout earlier in 2020. Hope their lower turnout numbers continue on Election Day

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Philip J Fry
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10:29p, 11/1/24
AG
Where are they getting these numbers from?
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Captn_Ag05
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12:58a, 11/2/24
AG
Republicans added another 4k or so to their lead in Nevada on the final day of early voting there.

Mail in ballots will continue to come in over the next few days, but so far this cycle it has only slightly favored Democrats. Republicans now hold close to a 50k lead over Democrats. Republican turnout is also 9% higher than Democrat turnout. Similar to what we are seeing in Arizona and Florida which make tracking party registration turnout easy.

Updated numbers:
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aezmvp
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:23a, 11/2/24
That will be down to around 40k by election day. Still that's a massive improvement and will probably require Kamala to win independents (assuming each base holds evenly) around 6-7%
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aezmvp
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1:30a, 11/2/24
BTW The fact that Ralston, who literally makes his living and this is his claim to fame, is saying "I'll update the blog sometime tomorrow." He knows it's toast. If they don't get this under 40k by Tuesday I think Trump wins. If indy's are split I think Brown wins. Crazy.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to aezmvp • 2:09a, 11/2/24
AG
I disagree with your 40k assessment. Republicans will out vote Dems on Election Day. Dems would need to have the Republican lead down to 10-15k and then pray they seriously over perform with independents.
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nortex97
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3:12a, 11/2/24
AG
Pretty good thread on urban vote turnout nationally reflecting poorly for Dems, which makes sense. Larry uses Texas numbers here but it really is everywhere;







To his point: Dems are missing around 11 million net vs. 2020 early votes.


Halperin's sources (2R and 1D) seem to think Trump is doing well in WI:
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PA24
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6:55a, 11/2/24
AG
Trump is going to be a great 47
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 7:29a, 11/2/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
will25u said:
MemphisAg1 said:
Interesting.

40% of his final rallies in NC
30% in PA
10% in MI

Nothing in WI

That would lead one to believe NC is still up for grabs.


I was listening to someone tonight, can't remember who... They think Trump wins PA, and NC will be closer than PA.

Counties that were affected by the hurricane are not voting at numbers previously. Something people on here were worried about. So hopefully they show up on ED.
This was posted on the polls thread, but it looks like the hurricane devastated areas of NC are keeping pace with their 2020 numbers. You need to follow his link, and then read through the section titled What Harris Must Do to Win.

If the Trump campaign thought they would win NC by 5% they wouldn't conduct 40% of their remaining rallies there. This close to the finish line we can learn more by watching what the campaigns do than putting much stock into some random "expert" on the internet.
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rononeill
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7:56a, 11/2/24
So all of this early voting analysis y'all are posting is pretty favorable. But this IS Texags and, let's be honest, the smart people on here tracking this stuff are generally conservatively oriented so MAY have biased sources. Are there any left leaning analyses saying the same data is good for the Dems? I'm just scared of getting blindsided Tuesday night...
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to rononeill • 8:00a, 11/2/24
AG
rononeill said:
So all of this early voting analysis y'all are posting is pretty favorable. But this IS Texags and, let's be honest, the smart people on here tracking this stuff are generally conservatively oriented so MAY have biased sources. Are there any left leaning analyses saying the same data is good for the Dems? I'm just scared of getting blindsided Tuesday night...


I mean the numbers are the numbers. While this is an echo chamber in many regards, a lot of the posters have given their caution points.

- hope for normal GOP turnout on ED but not guaranteed
- don't know how indies will ultimately break
- is the GOP ED vote cannibalized? (Many think generally know bc of the increase in low propensity voters)
- will new registrations show up to vote
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to rononeill • 8:01a, 11/2/24
Mark Halperin has been covering it from the left of center point of view on Youtube. He's on with Sean Spicer a lot.

It seems like he's covering it pretty honestly from what he's seeing in the data and he's certainly not a blowhard. He's not as optimistic for Harris but he's pointing out some decent metrics for her such as female turnout.
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OldArmy71
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8:48a, 11/2/24
AG
NYT had an article talking about skewed polls and linked to a series of threads and discussions and polls that showed that Harris was going to win, possibly in a blowout. No idea of their methodology or reliability.

I do think TexAgs underestimates the effect the SCOTUS abortion decision is going to have on this election.

Many women are highly motivated to turn out for any Democrat running. It's just the way it is.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to OldArmy71 • 9:04a, 11/2/24
AG
OldArmy71 said:
NYT had an article talking about skewed polls and linked to a series of threads and discussions and polls that showed that Harris was going to win, possibly in a blowout. No idea of their methodology or reliability.

I do think TexAgs underestimates the effect the SCOTUS abortion decision is going to have on this election.

Many women are highly motivated to turn out for any Democrat running. It's just the way it is.


Women and Indies are the unknown which can't be measured in early voting. Sure we know IF they voted but can't tell how they did. Is "Never Trump" still as powerful as it was in 2020? That is what can drive those two categories to turn out but not vote as expected. Ie: R not voting R or I % leaning to D.
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JDUB08AG
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9:17a, 11/2/24
AG
We are 2.5 years removed from RvW overturned, which included an election cycle. A lot of this was legislated at the state level since then. I'm not dismissing it as it is still a hot button issue, but not near the same as it was in the 2022 midterms.
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SouthTex99
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9:17a, 11/2/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to JDUB08AG • 9:29a, 11/2/24
AG
JDUB08AG said:
We are 2.5 years removed from RvW overturned, which included an election cycle. A lot of this was legislated at the state level since then. I'm not dismissing it as it is still a hot button issue, but not near the same as it was in the 2022 midterms.
Something like 8 percent rank abortion as their top priority in what I have seen. It's around 6 or 8th.





I really don't understand why Trump is spending time in NC this weekend.

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Philip J Fry
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9:41a, 11/2/24
AG


Thought this was a good interview last night. Specifically, the Nevada portion and the kind of machine the democrats have in LV.
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