AtticusMatlock said:
I'm sorry I offended you.
He doesn't seem offended, just seems to be posting logical arguments against your argument and you resort to this response which seems to mean you don't have a logical response.
***Official Early Vote Tracking***
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He doesn't seem offended, just seems to be posting logical arguments against your argument and you resort to this response which seems to mean you don't have a logical response.
Not that anyone cares, but I have been a little busy today working with @earlyvotedata on X getting together some data to track bellwether counties in different states for Trump to win that state. If anyone is interested in tracking bellwether counties by state on election night....
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11iMtzfUWPCLZJpzCQ12vkGHpQF-EDTqgjmYcQb01O5Y/edit?usp=drivesdk
Vote data is obviously not correct, but I took the data from this tweet and put it in the sheet.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11iMtzfUWPCLZJpzCQ12vkGHpQF-EDTqgjmYcQb01O5Y/edit?usp=drivesdk
Vote data is obviously not correct, but I took the data from this tweet and put it in the sheet.
1/ Election Night Reference Sheets:
— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) October 27, 2024
As promised here are the Reference Sheets that you can use for Nov 5 to gauge how things are going. Please note that this is in the perspective of Trump's performance, so if you don't want him to win then just look for the opposite of what is… pic.twitter.com/gjCgcyH8Y7
I wonder what he saw...... while most GOPers seem happy with the early votes Charlie is sounding an alarm
Early vote has been disproportionately female.
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) October 30, 2024
If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple.
If you want a vision of the future if you don't vote, imagine Kamala's voice cackling, forever.
Men need to GO VOTE NOW.
Early voting has actually been more male this year compared to 2020 in key states like PA and AZ. I'm assuming all of this is to encourage men (who more predominantly vote for Trump) to get off the couch and go vote and not slack off.
He's not seeing anything, he's just trying to motivate all his volunteers and viewers who are ballot chasing and participating in various GOTV efforts.
Vance in '28
I agree. I believe there's a huge push right now to get people out to vote to account for some shady stuff that's starting to pop up with accepting votes several "days" after the election. Not trying to stir any pots Mods. Some states today allowed for that so it's relevant.SwigAg11 said:
Early voting has actually been more male this year compared to 2020 in key states like PA and AZ. I'm assuming all of this is to encourage men (who more predominantly vote for Trump) to get off the couch and go vote and not slack off.
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Nevada updated numbers. Republicans expanded their lead by 1,800 or so votes from yesterday. Smallest increase of the week, but still an increase.
Total Early Vote Update:
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 31, 2024
🔴 335,644 (+44,408)
🔵 291,236
🟡 229,341
Total: 856,221
I'm fairly certain he saw PA vote breakdown. Trump will lose PA unless men vote in crazy numbers, from what I read.McInnis 03 said:
I wonder what he saw...... while most GOPers seem happy with the early votes Charlie is sounding an alarmEarly vote has been disproportionately female.
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) October 30, 2024
If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple.
If you want a vision of the future if you don't vote, imagine Kamala's voice cackling, forever.
Men need to GO VOTE NOW.
Men have a tendency to vote on Election Day for whatever reason. Those numbers will come down and are a full point lower than 2020. Additionally the number of married women is up like 5%+ over 2020. That should mitigate it but yes, Dems are putting big stock into the female numbers and they are somewhat worrisome.
The genders are voting almost in line with past elections. Like you said within a point. It makes me think that this election will be very close and that the polling is right.
But of course I could be totally wrong.
But of course I could be totally wrong.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.
If the rumors are true about the Amish showing up, then half of the 80k that are voting are men. That's sure to be a nice bump
Supposedly there are about 90k Amish in Pennsylvania. They're not getting 80k Amish votes
This was explained earlier in the thread. I believe the claim earlier was over 90K. They are not significant parts of the polls and are not significant in the electorate. They do not want to be, largely.GAC06 said:
Supposedly there are about 90k Amish in Pennsylvania. They're not getting 80k Amish votes
GAC06 said:
Supposedly there are about 90k Amish in Pennsylvania. They're not getting 80k Amish votes
They've registered around 12k of the 80k Amish that live in Pennsylvania from what I understand. Helpful if you get them all to the polls, but the numbers some people have thrown around (180k, etc) are just wildly off.
As discussed, the 'Amish adjacent' include a larger diaspora of non-practicing/former folks sort of like 'Jack Mormons.' The net impact of the drive to connect/register Amish could realistically be well north of 100K. And the map shows those south-central counties EV as quite good for the GOP.
Anyway:
Anyway:
#NVEV Worst Case Scenario for Trump, a revisit: Current statewide R lead is 44k. I estimate Clark VBM to be ~410k this year (457k in 2020, a COVID year). So far 283k is in, so 127k remains. Current Clark VBM is D+18.2. Let’s generously assume it’s D+20 for those 127k ballots
— au ng (@athein1) October 31, 2024
1/
The net overall R lead will still be ~19k and that’s a sure win for Trump.
— au ng (@athein1) October 31, 2024
3/end
UPDATE: Michigan GOP counties still outpacing Dem counties, but their relative advantage narrowed to 8.1%. Strong GOP areas seeing 5.7% surge in NEW ballot requests vs 3.7% for Dem areas. These fresh requests take time to return, dampening return rates. pic.twitter.com/YlGRXIio69
— petebray (@petebray) October 30, 2024
There's no better way to close a Wednesday evening than with an update from Nevada.
— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 31, 2024
🔴Republicans - 335,644
🔵Democrats - 291,236
🟡Others - 229,341
We've crossed 850,000 votes and have ~62% of the expected electorate banked.
Republicans won the day for the everyth (industry… pic.twitter.com/3m99t3PfVz
Arizona presents a slightly different picture than Nevada in terms of voters remaining.
— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 30, 2024
Here, Democrats are burning through their 3/3s faster. This has not stopped Republicans from picking up tens of thousands of net votes with each update simply because Republicans have so many… pic.twitter.com/LIMzwv1Y3t
Trump doesn't have anything to worry about.jr15aggie said:AtticusMatlock said:
There is some Republican to Democrat crossover in terms of the Nikki Haley type of female Republican voter who was voting for Harris. So Republicans having huge returns doesn't mean they are all going for Trump.
I just don't buy it... so the EV Republican numbers are WAY up because of all the female republicans rushing to the polls to vote Harris?
And at the same time the EV Democrat numbers are WAY down because, what, all of the female Democrats are sitting around waiting to vote on election day?
I'm far from an expert, but nope, does not compute at all... at least not in regard to the sweeping/broad changes in the EV numbers this year compared to previous years.
Kamala is closing hard....but I'm not sure if it will be enough.
Republican enthusiasm is through the roof for the possible return of the King to the throne.
The GOP dominated early voting last week. Lines in red counties were the longest that they had been in years.
People were pumped up to vote, and a lot of the diehards got their voting done within the first three days.
One thing that I'd like you to remember is that a late vote counts just as much as an early vote.
NC continues to look great, though the yankee independent newbies I dunno, could be a problem in theory. There's not a single blue county if looking at white voters, and most of it is actually red even if looking at only black voters, but it does show D for 80 percent of them.
Today's North Carolina update: 🔴 Republican leads slow but grow, 🟡 Independents gain strength
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) October 31, 2024
The North Carolina map at https://t.co/OQmut71g35 has been updated. Republicans grow their lead in early voting by almost 5,000 to 🔴+47,007.
Before I go into the details - There… pic.twitter.com/zFZmqgGwhL
This guy has a little less rosy look on NC. NC is on track for independents to be in the lead by end of early voting. Independents are traditionally right leaning in NC, but many have switched their registration to Republican since four years ago, so it's hard to say what they will do. If Harris wins them by a little, she could win the state by this analysis. NC republicans need to swarm the polls on Election Day. Vote in the western part of the state continues to lag a bit.
Another day, another 254,401 votes banked in North Carolina. 3.62 million votes have been cast, nearly two-thirds of the expected final total.
— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 31, 2024
🔴Republicans - 1,230,530
🟡Others - 1,208,335
🔵Democrats - 1,183,954
Like yesterday, 'Others' ruled the day, but they did so… pic.twitter.com/hHOlISrWMq
Yes we need significant turn out there. A couple of notes on it though. AA votes are way down. 4% over 2020. Some of those will also be split off as Trump is generally doing 5-10% better among AA in 24 than he did in 20. Additionally women are only up a point and I expect that will be the same as 20 or a bit lower. Now married is out performing their share of the electorate vs. 20 by 10 points (this largely, imo, correlates to a 10 point drop in unknown marital status in the state, but it won't be 1 to 1) that is a trend we see nationwide. In fact married women will either lean or be outright GOP voters more than half the time. I'm cautiously optimistic in NC. Want that ED vote to blow the doors off however.
Another thing people need to remember is that every voter that flips is a net 2 vote swing and I think there will be more that flip from D to R than the other way around.aezmvp said:
Yes we need significant turn out there. A couple of notes on it though. AA votes are way down. 4% over 2020. Some of those will also be split off as Trump is generally doing 5-10% better among AA in 24 than he did in 20. Additionally women are only up a point and I expect that will be the same as 20 or a bit lower. Now married is out performing their share of the electorate vs. 20 by 10 points (this largely, imo, correlates to a 10 point drop in unknown marital status in the state, but it won't be 1 to 1) that is a trend we see nationwide. In fact married women will either lean or be outright GOP voters more than half the time. I'm cautiously optimistic in NC. Want that ED vote to blow the doors off however.
Sure, there will be some women who flip from R to D just because the candidate is a woman (if their single issue is abortion they were never R to begin with) but I think more blacks and hispanics (especially men) will flip to R and that is huge.
White-Black Turnout Gap in Georgia Comparison:
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 31, 2024
2016: ⚪️ White +6.2
2020: ⚪️ White +6.4
2024: ⚪️ White +13.1
The gap will only grow on Election Day, which will be significantly more white.
Just plugged the latest Arizona reports in.
Interesting to see turnout neck and neck between D and R and so much lower in the "other" category. Anybody polling that group to get an idea which way they lean? With the registration advantage and expected ED boost to turnout on the R side, seems like the others would have to break hard for the Ds for Harris to have any chance in Az.Captn_Ag05 said:
Just plugged the latest Arizona reports in.
Prosperdick said:Another thing people need to remember is that every voter that flips is a net 2 vote swing and I think there will be more that flip from D or R than the other way around.aezmvp said:
Yes we need significant turn out there. A couple of notes on it though. AA votes are way down. 4% over 2020. Some of those will also be split off as Trump is generally doing 5-10% better among AA in 24 than he did in 20. Additionally women are only up a point and I expect that will be the same as 20 or a bit lower. Now married is out performing their share of the electorate vs. 20 by 10 points (this largely, imo, correlates to a 10 point drop in unknown marital status in the state, but it won't be 1 to 1) that is a trend we see nationwide. In fact married women will either lean or be outright GOP voters more than half the time. I'm cautiously optimistic in NC. Want that ED vote to blow the doors off however.
Sure, there will be some women who flip from R to D just because the candidate is a woman (if their single issue is abortion they were never R to begin with) but I think more blacks and hispanics (especially men) will flip to R and that is huge.
I really don't see how kamala is more likable to women then Biden was. I would be shocked if the woman vote is higher for Kamala then it was for Biden. Biden was +15 in exit polls. A higher white turnout would make that nearly impossible to by the way.
Others are also lagging pretty badly in Nevada and Florida (although catching up a bit in Florida). That is part of the reason I think turnout will be down several % from four years ago and look a lot more like the 2016 turnout numbers.txags92 said:Interesting to see turnout neck and neck between D and R and so much lower in the "other" category. Anybody polling that group to get an idea which way they lean? With the registration advantage and expected ED boost to turnout on the R side, seems like the others would have to break hard for the Ds for Harris to have any chance in Az.Captn_Ag05 said:
Just plugged the latest Arizona reports in.
Others are even in most polling, with some showing a small Trump lead and some a small Harris lead.
Just to give you an idea, I am running turnout models for Arizona and based on what we have from just the early vote, I have Trump winning 50.16% to 47.26%.
This was done assigning Trump Republicans at a 92/8 split, Harris getting Democrats with a 95/5 split, and Harris winning independents by 6%.
Republicans should expand their turnout advantage on election day. It is getting increasingly out of reach for Harris in AZ IMO.
Those are pretty bullish splits for Harris. Sounds great!
To compliment Captn_Ag05's post with previous elections' numbers.
🚨 ARIZONA EARLY VOTE UPDATE
— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) October 31, 2024
🔴 828K (+154K!)
🔵 674K
🟡 522K
🔵 TDIH 2020: D+63K
🔵 TDIH 2022: D+22K
GOP lead in Maricopa County hits 100K
Bold prediction that basically says if Rep voters do their usual job on ED, PA is pretty much already guaranteed for Trump.
Edit: Obviously assuming Philly shenanigans don't crop up.
Edit: Obviously assuming Philly shenanigans don't crop up.
🔴 31-Oct Pennsylvania Early Voting Update: Steady sailing to victory 🔴https://t.co/euSd3jfkGB
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) October 31, 2024
Today in Pennsylvania, Advantage Trump has taken another large day-over-day jump by 🔴 R+0.65% to 🔴 R+17.10%. PA mail returns are still pouring in for both parties, and on this… pic.twitter.com/OVj9tqNBNI
Anecdotal from our little burg. The Hubs and I just got back from early voting. (I took a bad fall and banged up my right knee and ankle, so haven't been able to walk well for several days and still have to use a tripod cane and move very slowly.)
In years past when we would go early vote, usually the only ones in there or one or two other voters. Today ove the lunch hour there 8-10 in there and several more coming in while we were there. Asked the lady how busy had they had been. She said more busy than she ever seen it over the last four cycles and they still expected a busy election day with record turnout. People are voting heavily.
In years past when we would go early vote, usually the only ones in there or one or two other voters. Today ove the lunch hour there 8-10 in there and several more coming in while we were there. Asked the lady how busy had they had been. She said more busy than she ever seen it over the last four cycles and they still expected a busy election day with record turnout. People are voting heavily.
I have no idea how anyone can say anything about early voting, but CNN says that Harris leads in both Georgia and NC:
Quote:
More than half of the likely electorate in both Georgia (59%) and North Carolina (52%) say they've already cast their ballots, with those voters splitting narrowly toward Harris by a 7-point margin in Georgia and by 6 points in North Carolina.
The only thing that makes sense would be women Independent voters.
Edit: If those numbers are from exit polling, ignore them completely. Exit polling has become wildly unpredictive in more recent elections. A good example was the exit polling in 2004 showing Kerry stomping Bush.
Edit: If those numbers are from exit polling, ignore them completely. Exit polling has become wildly unpredictive in more recent elections. A good example was the exit polling in 2004 showing Kerry stomping Bush.
OldArmy71 said:
I have no idea how anyone can say anything about early voting, but CNN says that Harris leads in both Georgia and NC:Quote:
More than half of the likely electorate in both Georgia (59%) and North Carolina (52%) say they've already cast their ballots, with those voters splitting narrowly toward Harris by a 7-point margin in Georgia and by 6 points in North Carolina.
It's CNN. Commie News Network. Propaganda.
I know a lot about a little, and a little about a lot.
Statewide EV still lagging 2020, but gap has closed the last 2 days.aggiehawg said:
Anecdotal from our little burg. The Hubs and I just got back from early voting. (I took a bad fall and banged up my right knee and ankle, so haven't been able to walk well for several days and still have to use a tripod cane and move very slowly.)
In years past when we would go early vote, usually the only ones in there or one or two other voters. Today ove the lunch hour there 8-10 in there and several more coming in while we were there. Asked the lady how busy had they had been. She said more busy than she ever seen it over the last four cycles and they still expected a busy election day with record turnout. People are voting heavily.
Blue county EV below state average.
https://www.kxan.com/news/your-local-election-hq/november-2024-turnout-tracker/
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Republicans are up 9-10 points right now with more voters left over. Assuming normal cross over Allred and Harris would need to be I plus 20 to tie.
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