outofstateaggie said:

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Stats from 2022 I did not recall until a fellow data obsessive provided it:

When the 2-week in-person early vote ended, 36% of mail ballots were still to come. Then on Election Day, in Clark County, 62K mail ballots were dropped off.

Does the mail cometh after Friday again? https://t.co/mrQVerEeqQ

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 30, 2024

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So what is the math if you assume 34% of mail in ballots come in with the same split as the mail in ballots so far, versus the typical advantage to Rs in ED voting? Would that 36% be enough to overtake what is expected?

outofstateaggie said:

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Stats from 2022 I did not recall until a fellow data obsessive provided it:

When the 2-week in-person early vote ended, 36% of mail ballots were still to come. Then on Election Day, in Clark County, 62K mail ballots were dropped off.

Does the mail cometh after Friday again? https://t.co/mrQVerEeqQ

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 30, 2024

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Even if so, we still have a direct comparison to where the numbers currently with early voting R vs. D comparison to where they were at this time previous cycles...which is much better for R's currently.

What Ralston didn't say is that even with those last second mail drop off ballots in 2022 the GOP almost completely flipped the entire executive branch of the state and narrowly lost the Senate race by a very slim margin.

The Democrats have basically zero margin over 2022.

I do think there is some cannibalism going on with the GOP vote in Nevada. In 2022 there was apparently a snow storm in some of the northern rural Republican heavy counties that may have contributed to lower election day turnout. They are very much pushing people to vote early instead of on election day. A lot of these people are not new voters or low propensity voters. Some are. Some are not.

outofstateaggie said:

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Stats from 2022 I did not recall until a fellow data obsessive provided it:

When the 2-week in-person early vote ended, 36% of mail ballots were still to come. Then on Election Day, in Clark County, 62K mail ballots were dropped off.

Does the mail cometh after Friday again? https://t.co/mrQVerEeqQ

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 30, 2024

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NV is also allowing mail in ballots without postmarks to be counted up to 3 days after election day.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/28/nevada-supreme-court-counting-mailed-ballots/75898338007/

The problem for Democrats hoping to make up with independents the gap in enthusiasm between themselves and Republicans, is that Democrat leaning independents' enthusiasm tends to track with Democrat enthusiasm and Republican leaning independents' enthusiasm tends to track with Republican enthusiasm.

Based on what we've seen I'd expect that the outstanding mail will cut into the GOP firewall at the end by 20-25k. Maybe a hair more. Then there will be ED turn out which will be a significant GOP win, as has all of IPEV. So at the end it will come down to independents and what their split is. I think the crossover is a mirage based on female vs. male numbers which will shift significantly on ED voting and with the marriage number higher, that favors the GOP. So again GOP firewall will be between 20-30k after mail and it will come out to ED turnout and indy split. Less than a 5% split or a more than a 5% GOP turnout advantage and we flip NV and possibly the Senate seat.

1836er said:

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The problem for Democrats hoping to make up with independents the gap in enthusiasm between themselves and Republicans, is that Democrat leaning independents' enthusiasm tends to track with Democrat enthusiasm and Republican leaning independents' enthusiasm tends to track with Republican enthusiasm.

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This. I believe in NV, Trump won more indies in 2016 but Biden won more in 2020. Party enthusiasm (or lack thereof) absolutely carries over to party-leaning indies.

Republicans have now taken a 700,000 vote cast lead over the Democrats in early voting in Florida. By my math, the current Republican turnout is 48.75% and the Democrat turnout is 44.56%. Republicans have a large registration advantage in FL (1.1 million) but are still turning out at a higher rate in early voting than Democrats.

aggiehawg said:

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jja79 said:

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Voting this morning in Maricopa County, Arizona. My concern is the amount of data available gives the cheaters a target.

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Can you please report back on your experiences? TIA.

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I voted at ASU's campus so the directions on the Maricopa website were very misleading. Someone actually asked for my DL which they didn't in the primary. When I dropped my ballot in the drop box I asked the obviously leftist attendee if i could be confident the box was secure which pissed her off for some reason. I thought the question was reasonable.

Thanks for the response.

Quote:

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I voted at ASU's campus so the directions on the Maricopa website were very misleading.

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No surprise to me on that as I watched all of the Lake trials. Ridiculously convoluted and confusing election procedure manual.

Is this consistent with other data?

Over 2 million Michigan voters have cast their ballots, either by absentee ballot or by early in person voting! Haven’t voted yet? You can vote early today, tomorrow, or any day thru Sunday November 3rd! Just remember the LAST day to vote is November 5th. Get all your voting… pic.twitter.com/WxrVAcSdtM

— Jocelyn Benson (@JocelynBenson) October 29, 2024

sorry if already asked and answered but do we have a feel for how independents are breaking?

Depends on the state. Most of the polling data has showed Trump with a slight lead on Independents overall in battle ground states. Should be pretty close to even possibly slightly Trump depending on who shows up on Tuesday.

AgBQ-00 said:

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sorry if already asked and answered but do we have a feel for how independents are breaking?

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I don't have numbers from a source for you, but independents usually break in the direction of the enthusiasm. If D #s are down and R #s are up, that would typically indicate an enthusiasm gap in the Rs favor and would suggest independents breaking that direction as well, but we will know for sure in a week.

It's pretty much what txags92 just said. About 80% of "Independent" voters are not really independent; they typically vote to one party but have just never registered (myself included). Typically, the indies enthusiasm and voting mirrors the registered party, with some data showing it can be even more pronounced.

Thanks for the answers

Not that anyone is worried about Florida, but again the trends/enthusiasm/turnout all portend great things:

#FLEV 10/30pm. The R lead has continued to grow to 723k (11%). Duval at 3.7% (GA is safe). The growth slowed a bit further. I project it to reach ~900k-1M range before E-day. Trump wins FL by 13-15! pic.twitter.com/oSKOaucprQ

— au ng (@athein1) October 30, 2024

Roe effect in color, imho:

The weakness is not just in return rates (which @MichaelPruser says is a real phenomenon), but also in request rates. My map shows that as well. Left is Democratic return rate, right is party split. It is demographical. Same effect in Pittsburgh. pic.twitter.com/iZsdb1C22X

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) October 30, 2024

Good:

Just waiting on Pennsylvania government to release the individual absentee file export, but this is going to move the map :) https://t.co/oP8FdtRmrw

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) October 30, 2024

“Philadelphia is well behind in returns.”

😭 https://t.co/pGzjSn0wmQ

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 30, 2024

jja79 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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jja79 said:

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Voting this morning in Maricopa County, Arizona. My concern is the amount of data available gives the cheaters a target.

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Can you please report back on your experiences? TIA.

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I voted at ASU's campus so the directions on the Maricopa website were very misleading. Someone actually asked for my DL which they didn't in the primary. When I dropped my ballot in the drop box I asked the obviously leftist attendee if i could be confident the box was secure which pissed her off for some reason. I thought the question was reasonable.

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I'd probably have a hard time remembering my name if I voted on the ASU campus amongst all of that beautiful scenery

I know I bring up the Sean Spicer YouTube channel a lot, and the other channel he frequently appears on with Mark Halperin. A very good source of more information on what the campaigns are doing from experienced campaigners. The guests on one of the channels Sean was on today was a Democrat operative who seemed very happy with the female versus male early voters ratio so far.

It's the one thing the Republicans are concerned about right now. Charlie Kirk is tweeting about it. The polls don't matter if men don't show up to vote.

There is some Republican to Democrat crossover in terms of the Nikki Haley type of female Republican voter who was voting for Harris. So Republicans having huge returns doesn't mean they are all going for Trump.

Man, not good for Kamala. It's almost across the board in different regions, across battleground states, blue states, red states, the Dems are (so far) NOT showing up for her.

With republicans surging in the early data it's hard not to see Trump at least equaling his 74 million votes from '20. So in order to even keep it close, Kamala is going to have to way outperform Clinton from '16 (65 million votes).

jr15aggie said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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There is some Republican to Democrat crossover in terms of the Nikki Haley type of female Republican voter who was voting for Harris. So Republicans having huge returns doesn't mean they are all going for Trump.

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I just don't buy it... so the EV Republican numbers are WAY up because of all the female republicans rushing to the polls to vote Harris?

And at the same time the EV Democrat numbers are WAY down because, what, all of the female Democrats are sitting around waiting to vote on election day?

I'm far from an expert, but nope, does not compute at all... at least not in regard to the sweeping/broad changes in the EV numbers this year compared to previous years.

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Yeah, I don't buy those talking points either.

I do think we should remember that this year there was a big push by the Republican party to get voters out early. That might partly explain the increase early voting, but to what extent we don't know.

We should also remember that comparing Democrats mail voting or early voting requests to 2020 might have some issues. They were much more likely to have been afraid of crowded polliing locations in 2020 than their conservative counterparts. So sinply showing a decrease there may partly be explained by them returning to a more typical behavior. Again how much of thos we really won't know.

I do think you can take the trends and say it looks better for Rs than for Ds, especially when you factor in the polling, but there's still a lot of unknowns.

Exactly. The GOP Is pushing early voting this time. How many ED votes are being cannibalized, we aren't sure but they still expect to have some advantages on ED. How many neocon-types are flipping to Harris, we don't know.

Early Vote Woman Share per @CBSNews

Georgia
2020: 56%
2024: 55%

Pennsylvania:
2020: 57%
2024: 56%

Arizona:
2020: 54%
2024: 52%

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 30, 2024

I forgot to add there was no line. Walked in, showed my DL, voted and left. It was in a big space but there weren't more than 15 people there.

I'm looking for crosstabs for swing states as to the rate of independent women voting. That's the big thing the GOP is probably concerned about. Those are probably majority Harris voters. We can't just assume GOP v Dem on these things.

I think the GOP to Dem crossover may be there but will probably be washed out by the pro-Bidens in 2020 flipping back to Trump from 2016. I don't think there's a significant net pick up from Harris with never-Trumper GOPers.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Exactly. The GOP Is pushing early voting this time. How many ED votes are being cannibalized, we aren't sure but they still expect to have some advantages on ED. How many neocon-types are flipping to Harris, we don't know.

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This question has been asked...and answered with data over and over in the last 10-15 pages of this thread.

That 12% female to male gap in Pennsylvania is concerning.

Yeah and I summarized what the data was saying...

AtticusMatlock said:

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Yeah and I summarized what the data was saying...

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Actually you didn't. There was no data in what you posted...just the repetitive suggestion that the Rs were cannibalizing their ED margin. The EV margin changes are mostly being driven by lower D ballot returns, and increased R returns from no/low-propensity voters. In order for them to be "cannibalizing" ED votes relative to previous elections, they would have to be seeing growth in higher propensity voters. Similarly, "losing share" of neo-con type voters to Ds would largely show up in the high propensity voters because by definition, you can't "lose share" relative to previous elections from voters who never vote. Since the margin is coming from low D turnout and higher R turnout of no/low propensity voters, cannibalization of ED votes does not seem to be driving the apparent changes in EV.

AtticusMatlock said:

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That 12% female to male gap in Pennsylvania is concerning.

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Why? It was bigger last time and he "lost" by 80K.

I'm sorry I offended you.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Early Vote Woman Share per @CBSNews

Georgia
2020: 56%
2024: 55%

Pennsylvania:
2020: 57%
2024: 56%

Arizona:
2020: 54%
2024: 52%

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 30, 2024

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Thanks for posting this.

Both past history and current polling confirms that women vote early at higher percentages than men, while men vote on election day at higher percentages than women. The numbers we are seeing now (regarding men and women) are in line with expectations.

I have not seen any evidence in the polling of Harris doing better than Trump with crossover voters. In fact, there actually doesn't appear to be much crossover voting (compared to what it used to be like), and if anything it appears to slightly favor Trump in most of the places that matter the most (the Rust Belt).

The only relevant state I can think of off the top of my head where Harris might do a point better than Trump with crossover voters is Arizona.