Yes, if pollsters are taking an accurate scientific poll it does skew the polls. Even more so they poll "likely voters" which would not poll any of the 0 of last 4 voters who registered and are voting which looks to be a pretty big number this election....The majority of which are newly registered republicans.

sanangelo said:

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tremble said:

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Too bad they put up Lake for that seat.

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Other than the meme attacks on Kari Lake, what in reality makes Kari Lake a bad candidate? I actually like her a lot.

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Same here. I basically agree with everything she has to say. Very common sense. Not a career politician. For some reason the people of AZ don't like her. Doesn't make a lot of sense.

Saw something on the Vance podcast with Theo Vonn that I'm not sure it's been discussed here, but maybe it has.

One of the things Vance pointed out was that these polls usually cost somewhere around $10,000 or so, but they always have trouble getting responses. 10 or 15 years ago, 1 in 10 people would respond to the polling opportunity. Now it's less than 1 in 30.

The internal pollsers hired by the campaigns generally spend $70,000 or more to conduct one poll because they have to spend so much time calling so many people to get an appropriate set. These generally are the most accurate.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Saw something on the Vance podcast with Theo Vonn that I'm not sure it's been discussed here, but maybe it has.

One of the things Vance pointed out was that these polls usually cost somewhere around $10,000 or so, but they always have trouble getting responses. 10 or 15 years ago, 1 in 10 people would respond to the polling opportunity. Now it's less than 1 in 30.

The internal pollsers hired by the campaigns generally spend $70,000 or more to conduct one poll because they have to spend so much time calling so many people to get an appropriate set. These generally are the most accurate.

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this was an argument I had with someone a few weeks ago in the difference between public and private polls

he claimed the public polls would be more accurate than internal polls- which is laughable

OF COURSE a poll conducted for Harris or Trump will be the most accurate they can make it- else they won't ever get hired again.

Florida was never going to be in play this cycle.

Pennsylvania with early vote being slow and with registration down to d +1.5, I could easily see the final electorate of actual voters being r +1-3 with independents having to break to democrats for them to win. This has not happened in a long long time for Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania previously you always had to have huge base turnout and a solid independent win to win the state. It doesn't look like that this year.

[We're not going to derail this early vote tracking thread with a discussion on voting fraud. Please take that to an existing thread or start a new one -- Staff]

Trump campaign memo:

“The biggest and most important turnout day for the Harris campaign during North Carolina and Georgia early voting has come and gone with minimal impact on the electorate.” pic.twitter.com/kTxzNg8bL2

— Tim Murtaugh (@TimMurtaugh) October 28, 2024

I did a bit of a deep dive on Texas data, and deep red and rural counties are turning out early and in larger numbers than the rest of the state. The average turnout as of the end of the weekend was 29.33%. The top 20 counties in turnout % are all deep red counties (voted for Trump in 2020 with over 55% of the vote).

In fact of the top 100 counties with highest turnout, 96 are red counties and four are purple counties (Denton which was Trump plus 8 in 2020, Williamson which was Biden plus 2 in 2020, Collin which was Trump plus 4 in 2020, and Hays, which was Biden plus 9). Not a single true blue county cracked the top 100 in turnout %.

The only blue county with higher than average turnout is Travis, which comes in at 126th highest turnout rate.

Trailing behind the statewide average of 29.33% are the rest of the large blues - Harris (27.07%), Bexar (25.78%), Dallas (25.44%) and El Paso (19.74%).

Looks like great enthusiasm in TX rural counties! Hopefully that Trent continues!

SwigAg11 said:

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Holy spreadsheets Batman!

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This is my first cycle as an adult not actively working campaigns, so I am building spreadsheets as an outlet for my nervous energy.

BTW, if you live or know people in those counties below the average line, tell them to get their asses off the couch and go vote.

#FLEV 10/28 pm. The day hasn't ended but R lead is now at 580k, resuming the weekday growth rate (slope on the graph). It's expected to be around 1M by E-eve. Trump wins FL by 15 pts or more! pic.twitter.com/Lm3J0O6ZQ7

— au ng (@athein1) October 28, 2024

Captn_Ag05 = SpreadsheetAg?

Captn_Ag05 said:

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I did a bit of a deep dive on Texas data, and deep red and rural counties are turning out early and in larger numbers than the rest of the state. The average turnout as of the end of the weekend was 29.33%. The top 20 counties in turnout % are all deep red counties (voted for Trump in 2020 with over 55% of the vote).

In fact of the top 100 counties with highest turnout, 96 are red counties and four are purple counties (Denton which was Trump plus 8 in 2020, Williamson which was Biden plus 2 in 2020, Collin which was Trump plus 4 in 2020, and Hays, which was Biden plus 9). Not a single true blue county cracked the top 100 in turnout %.

The only blue county with higher than average turnout is Travis, which comes in at 126th highest turnout rate.

Trailing behind the statewide average of 29.33% are the rest of the large blues - Harris (27.07%), Bexar (25.78%), Dallas (25.44%) and El Paso (19.74%).

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Of the 248,064 who have early voted in Denton Co, my wife and I are two of them.

And I can promise you no (D) on the ballot got their little rectangle colored in.

(As a first-world problem to complain about, if they are going to make me color in that big ol' rectangle, how about giving a guy a sharpie, huh? I spent an inordinate amount of time trying to get that rectangle completely filled for each candidate with just that ball-point Bic)

billydean05 said:

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Everybody say it with me now...Texas and Florida president and senate race are not in play. D's have not been showing up throughout early voting and are not at all enthused with Kamala. Hispanic vote nationally is going to be close to even.

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I am not worried about Texas or Florida. But what happens in those states and the enthusiasm from voters is not something that happens in a vacuum. If your rural voters are enthused and urban voters are not turning out in Texas, that is likely to be the case in other states as well.

Yep, wife and I will add 2 more to the R tally in Denton tomorrow.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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billydean05 said:

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Everybody say it with me now...Texas and Florida president and senate race are not in play. D's have not been showing up throughout early voting and are not at all enthused with Kamala. Hispanic vote nationally is going to be close to even.

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I am not worried about Texas or Florida. But what happens in those states and the enthusiasm from voters is not something that happens in a vacuum. If your rural voters are enthused and urban voters are not turning out in Texas, that is likely to be the case in other states as well.

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Oh I agree completely and we have evidence of this happening throughout the US battleground states and Strong democrat states and strong Republican states and less strong democrat states.

akm91 said:

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Yep, wife and I will add 2 more to the R tally in Denton tomorrow.

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I recommend Corinth City Hall. No line. Just walk right in.

I almost waited until Election Day to vote only because my poll location would've been American Eagle Harley Davidson, and I thought it would be kind of cool to cast my ballot in a Harley-Davidson dealership.

The key update will be tomorrow night. If by then the trend hasn't changed and when the SOS in the various states get caught up on weekend, Monday and Tuesday counts then we'll know. I expect AZ, GA and NV will be fully out of reach with a normal election day. NC will be close-ish to the same. I'll bet we see the rip cords pulled and everything dumped into WI, NH, MI, and PA. It will suck up every available resource and it will be very late in the day for that. It will give them 24 hours to redeploy those assets and they'll be left with 4 days to try and shift the election in those states. If they've lost in a place like VA or NM, there isn't a path for Democrats IMHO so I think they'll think back to Hillary and flood those zones and especially Philly, Milwaukee, Madison, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Lancaster. This takes time and maybe they've thought through a plan as to how to allocate those resources but my guess is WI and NH won't.

If the GOP really is up in the Sunbelt and won't be caught in NC, GA, NV and AZ then the Dems have to hold EVERYTHING and that is a talllllll order.

aezmvp said:

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The key update will be tomorrow night. If by then the trend hasn't changed and when the SOS in the various states get caught up on weekend, Monday and Tuesday counts then we'll know. I expect AZ, GA and NV will be fully out of reach with a normal election day. NC will be close-ish to the same. I'll bet we see the rip cords pulled and everything dumped into WI, NH, MI, and PA. It will suck up every available resource and it will be very late in the day for that. It will give them 24 hours to redeploy those assets and they'll be left with 4 days to try and shift the election in those states. If they've lost in a place like VA or NM, there isn't a path for Democrats IMHO so I think they'll think back to Hillary and flood those zones and especially Philly, Milwaukee, Madison, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Lancaster. This takes time and maybe they've thought through a plan as to how to allocate those resources but my guess is WI and NH won't.

If the GOP really is up in the Sunbelt and won't be caught in NC, GA, NV and AZ then the Dems have to hold EVERYTHING and that is a talllllll order.

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The unknown variable is the mail-in ballots, though.

I have a sneaky suspicion the Dems are loading up on those heavy this year, even more so than 2020, because it can completely turn the tables on what appears to be initial Republican insurmountable leads.

Tramp96 said:

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aezmvp said:

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The key update will be tomorrow night. If by then the trend hasn't changed and when the SOS in the various states get caught up on weekend, Monday and Tuesday counts then we'll know. I expect AZ, GA and NV will be fully out of reach with a normal election day. NC will be close-ish to the same. I'll bet we see the rip cords pulled and everything dumped into WI, NH, MI, and PA. It will suck up every available resource and it will be very late in the day for that. It will give them 24 hours to redeploy those assets and they'll be left with 4 days to try and shift the election in those states. If they've lost in a place like VA or NM, there isn't a path for Democrats IMHO so I think they'll think back to Hillary and flood those zones and especially Philly, Milwaukee, Madison, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Lancaster. This takes time and maybe they've thought through a plan as to how to allocate those resources but my guess is WI and NH won't.

If the GOP really is up in the Sunbelt and won't be caught in NC, GA, NV and AZ then the Dems have to hold EVERYTHING and that is a talllllll order.

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The unknown variable is the mail-in ballots, though.

I have a sneaky suspicion the Dems are loading up on those heavy this year, even more so than 2020, because it can completely turn the tables on what appears to be initial Republican insurmountable leads.

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Definitely does not appear to be the case in Nevada or Pennsylvania or Florida.

Unfortunately we're in Frisco so there really is only 3 locations that's relatively close to us. Hope it's not too long of a line.

Doubtful. Both they and outside groups rely on SoS data to identify and target voter outreach, banking it to dump is a huge risk and it draws down outside groups efforts. Yeah you'll see an outside ballot harvester do that stuff, but the parties want those votes in early. Especially now, they want some momentum to change the narrative. Low pro voters aren't driven by "my vote counts" generally. They ARE driven by being on the winning team. So Dems want, need, to get those votes in now.

Just voted in Bastrop County at 6:40pm and there was no line and maybe 10 people in there voting.

National Early Vote Update: Party ID Edition

Topline shock number: Ds only lead Rs by 830,075 NATIONALLY (by states that report party ID).

If you have followed this thread, then you are aware of the patterns I have been discussing. I should say I am not surprised but honestly… https://t.co/nKvtRQuQOa pic.twitter.com/Hb4TSvEUYZ

— CA ET Nerd (@earlyvotedata) October 28, 2024

I misread that it was R+12.9 in 2020 not FROM 2020 and I was so confused 🤣

So to be clear for anyone confused like me:
Final early voting in FL was D+1.3 and now it’s R+11.6 for a difference of 12.9 in favor of R

— Alex Speaks Facts (@AlexSpeaksFacts) October 29, 2024

#FLEV 10/28 pm II. The day ended with R lead expanding to 594k, resuming the weekday growth rate (slope on the graph). It's expected to be around 1M by E-eve. Trump wins FL by 15+ pts! pic.twitter.com/mMs31YuFRT

— au ng (@athein1) October 29, 2024

🚨Just in: Michigan ballot returns have shown Republicans with the momentum. Counties that are GOP strongholds have seen a 41.7% surge in new returns over just 3 days. This pushes their total return rate to 73%. Republicans are now leading Democrat counties by 7.6%

Via @petebray pic.twitter.com/dDSAH6Oe40

— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) October 28, 2024

Where did you get the data and is it updated as of EOD yesterday?

Texas Secretary of State and it updates each morning.

akm91 said:

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Yep, wife and I will add 2 more to the R tally in Denton tomorrow.

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Same!

Are you seeing similar types of rural turnout in red counties elsewhere too? That's my hope...that the rural counties greatly overperform and shock the city dwellers by winning a few states we don't typically get.