***Official Early Vote Tracking***
9 days to go, and 135,075 (‼️) New Jerseyans voted on the first day of in-person early voting yesterday. With nearly 600,000 mail ballots returned, over 734,000 New Jerseyans have voted in the General Election so far. pic.twitter.com/x0fjN862oU
— Ryan Dubicki (@DubickiRyan) October 27, 2024
#NEW NEW JERSEY in-person early voting update: day 1
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 27, 2024
🔵 DEM: 38.5% (+1.2)
🔴 REP: 37.3%
🟡 IND: 23.5%
Day 1 2022: D+19.1
Source: @DubickiRyan
New Jersey. Let that sink in.
It has been discussed many times on this thread and others, but the Rs are having much more of their 1st-time or 2nd-time voters banking their votes early compared to the Dems. The Rs still have more of their reliable voters (3-time & 4-time) voters left in the tank than the Dems.LuoJi said:
Any data suggest that Rs are not just pulling votes forward?
Edit: So it appears that the Rs are not just cannibalizing their ED votes.
The more I look at the NJ numbers, the less amazing it is. While the Rs are definitely winning IPEV, they are still down 2-1 in all early voting as you said. Really need to look at a comparison of the overall voter registration numbers and see how many registered voters the Rs have left on the table.MemphisAg1 said:
I'm missing what's so amazing about that. With absentees and in-person voting, Dems are still ahead of R's more than 2 to 1.
UMM… what’s happening?! pic.twitter.com/ExYPy3Kyai
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 27, 2024
nortex97 said:
New Jersey numbers are 1000 percent insane.#NEW NEW JERSEY in-person early voting update: day 1
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 27, 2024
🔵 DEM: 38.5% (+1.2)
🔴 REP: 37.3%
🟡 IND: 23.5%
Day 1 2022: D+19.1
Source: @DubickiRyan
New Jersey. Let that sink in.
New Jersey 1st Day Early Voting Comparison:
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 27, 2024
2021:
🔵 49% (+17)
🔴 32%
🟡 19%
2022:
🔵 50% (+19)
🔴 31%
🟡 19%
2024:
🔵 38% (+1)
🔴 37%
🟡 25%
The early voting blog is updated!
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 27, 2024
Rs have added 2K to lead, which is now 31,000, or 5%. GOP surge slowed a bit Saturday, but Republicans still gained.
Dems need to decisively win indies to make this a late Election Night.
Down-ballot update, too!https://t.co/Pl43XBMcPA
In Clark County, Republican turnout rates are rising faster than Democrats', allowing them to match raw turnout daily. The day #1 report showed Democrats with a 7,000-vote lead. Seven days later, the lead has remained the same.
— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 27, 2024
Each day, Republicans draw a higher rate of low and… pic.twitter.com/dgFwEGujjs
As you know, I watch Joe Niernan at Good Lawgic often. He's in NJ. He has been saying for weeks that NJ was a battleground state this cycle. I didn't believe him at all but now?Quote:
New Jersey. Let that sink in.
Don't know what to think.
Edit: Does anyone know of a good single place for looking at Indy polling (rough percentages to D/R) by state?
11.25.23
#NeverForget
How are we not sure votes that would normally be on Election Day aren't just getting significantly cannibalized?
I feel like I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop, and it would help to better understand this stuff to not feel that way.
I answered this question above, but certain states track voters by how many times they've voted in the last so-many elections. In those states, the Rs are consistently getting their low-propensity voters (i.e., 1st-time or once-before voters) to the polls over the Dems while still maintaining their reliable voters.Waffledynamics said:
How are they determining what numbers are low-mid frequency voters?
How are we not sure votes that would normally be on Election Day aren't just getting significantly cannibalized?
I feel like I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop, and it would help to better understand this stuff to not feel that way.
There is then some guesswork that this should be translating to other states that do not capture this kind of voter granularity.
Maroon Elephant said:
I live in deep red Northeast Tarrant County and I've never seen voting lines like I have this year. I was finally able to get into the parking lot at my closest polling location today but still had a 45 minute wait. I take that as a good sign.
For fellow Tarrant county voters, here are the estimated wait times at polling locations. You may use any location to vote.
https://gisit.tarrantcounty.com/tcvotingwaittime/
Just think of the picture of the old lady in her bra who had to take off her Trump shirt...most voters know you can't wear anything political when you vote so likely that lady is one of thousands that are voting for the first time and simply don't know the rules, just that they're fired up to vote.SwigAg11 said:I answered this question above, but certain states track voters by how many times they've voted in the last so-many elections. In those states, the Rs are consistently getting their low-propensity voters (i.e., 1st-time or once-before voters) to the polls over the Dems while still maintaining their reliable voters.Waffledynamics said:
How are they determining what numbers are low-mid frequency voters?
How are we not sure votes that would normally be on Election Day aren't just getting significantly cannibalized?
I feel like I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop, and it would help to better understand this stuff to not feel that way.
There is then some guesswork that this should be translating to other states that do not capture this kind of voter granularity.
Barron securing those podcasts and galvanizing the young men will be yuuge
Reminder: as of yesterday, Republicans flipped the 18-25 demographic in early voting in North Carolina.
— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) October 27, 2024
Something I have never seen before. D's have always won this group heavily.
To see it, go to https://t.co/OQmut71g35 and click on the "18 to 25 years old" checkbox.
Don't… pic.twitter.com/tbyxwWeyKs
SwigAg11 said:It has been discussed many times on this thread and others, but the Rs are having much more of their 1st-time or 2nd-time voters banking their votes early compared to the Dems. The Rs still have more of their reliable voters (3-time & 4-time) voters left in the tank than the Dems.LuoJi said:
Any data suggest that Rs are not just pulling votes forward?
Edit: So it appears that the Rs are not just cannibalizing their ED votes.
Where is that data? New voters voting early, not banking votes early
RKG_Ag said:
Pennsylvania is really all about turnout in Philadelphia. If democrat can bank enough votes with reasonably high turnout in Philly that margin is challenging to overcome especially if you also struggle in the suburbs.
Post on the last page showing that Philly suburbs are keeping pace and nowhere else. The black vote in Philly is down 40% right now compared to 2020.
Here's the story of NV early voting: Ds aren't showing up.
— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) October 28, 2024
Rs have already turned out 51.7% of the # of Rs who cast ballots in 2020. For Ds, it's 41.6%.
The biggest change is in mail. So far, Rs have returned 57.5% of the mail ballots Rs cast in 2020. For Ds, it's 43.3%. pic.twitter.com/4KPP0LOhAV
“You see in campaigns that are losing near the end,” says the political strategist @alexcast of the Kamala Harris campaign. “They go after the most radical thing that appeals to their base ... But sometimes campaigns just run out of message. They run out of script, as they say in… pic.twitter.com/vQxBnN5sxl
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 27, 2024
Sunday voting in North Carolina is now closed, and the state has added 80,000 votes (mail + in-person).
— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 28, 2024
Party turnout with six days remaining is a three-way battle.
🔴Republicans - 961,861
🔵Democrats - 938,180
🟡Others - 920,607
Democrats cut into the Republican lead by… pic.twitter.com/zpbCVM5jQW