***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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nortex97
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8:23a, 10/21/24
AG
Data Republican is a good follow, imho;




Quote:
Updated, 6:05 AM, 10/21/24
Good morning, blog mates.
Clark mail dropped overnight. Dems won by 18 points; they had won by 19 in the first batch. Much smaller sample this time.
I don't have in-person early vote breakdown in Clark from Sunday, but there were 17,500 who turned out. The Clark firewall is at just under 11,000 without those numbers, so assume it's a few thousand less than that -- maybe 8,000 or 9,000 because GOP surely won in-person Sunday.
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P.U.T.U
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8:39a, 10/21/24
AG
Why do I always feel when good news comes out for the republicans I feel it is misinformation? Feel they are trying to get people think it will be a Trump landslide so not as many people show up on election day.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:49a, 10/21/24
AG
Comparing EV returns to 2022 in NC seems odd being a presidential election year. Comparing against 2016 seems most appropriate with the similarities in candidates to that race while keeping changing voter registration demographics in mind.
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nortex97
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 8:58a, 10/21/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
Comparing EV returns to 2022 in NC seems odd being a presidential election year. Comparing against 2016 seems most appropriate with the similarities in candidates to that race while keeping changing voter registration demographics in mind.
I pretty much agree with you, but the rate vs. the ratio might be the difference. We have too many Biden-2020 comparisons but the more apt one is the percent for each party over the past few races, imho. The shift toward a more red percentage, not total votes vs. 2020 at this point is still a useful metric (more-so if it includes 2016 as well).
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will25u
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9:11a, 10/21/24
Whole country it seems the AA population is really not enthusiastic about voting.



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Captn_Ag05
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9:20a, 10/21/24
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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9:21a, 10/21/24
AG
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4stringAg
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9:32a, 10/21/24
AG
IF these tweets can be believed, it seems the Dems won't have much of a blue firewall going into election day in a number of states as past years. Dem numbers seem down and Rep numbers seem up. I think the question remains whether or not actual election day voting is impacted. In other words are Dems planning on showing up more on election day since Covid is not a thing and are Reps cannibalizing their election day numbers with more early voting?

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Captn_Ag05
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9:32a, 10/21/24
AG
Reminder, you can track Florida early voting at this link - https://flvoicenews.com/florida-ge-live-data/

It updates about every ten minutes.

in-person early voting opened today there and so far Republicans are crushing it. Quickly closing the mail advantage that Democrats had.
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harge57
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:36a, 10/21/24
AG
Ohio is here. https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiODBmODUwNDQtZDdkYi00NWIxLWE1YjEtNzExZTlhZmQ2ZGUyIiwidCI6IjZhNjJmY2QyLTJlYzgtNDRlYi1hYWM1LTg4OTJhOGQ1YTgyNiJ9
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Captn_Ag05
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10:41a, 10/21/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:45a, 10/21/24
AG
Can't read into any of that yet. The big blue cities aren't reporting as much.
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gtaggie_08
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In reply to 4stringAg • 11:06a, 10/21/24
AG
Some of the earlier posts indicate the GOP is turning out more new/sporadic voters and not their dependable voters, leading to hope that they can overtake the D mail in advantage at least in Nevada and possibly other battlegrounds as well on Nov 5 in person voting
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AtticusMatlock
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11:36a, 10/21/24
Ralston (the "Oracle of Nevada") is the one to follow for Nevada election analysis. He's nailed the last several cycles. He's got a slight left slant to some of his commentary at times but he's not a sunshine pumper when the Dems aren't doing well. He posted a few days ago that Harris could be in trouble.



Dem early voting is down from 2020, but can't always predict was the independents will do.
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mslags97
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:50a, 10/21/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
Nevada and Arizona are going to Trump.



This is just huge!!!!
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:50a, 10/21/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Can't read into any of that yet. The big blue cities aren't reporting as much.


These are major metro areas…

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zooguy96
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In reply to mslags97 • 11:53a, 10/21/24
AG
mslags97 said:
2023NCAggies said:
Nevada and Arizona are going to Trump.



This is just huge!!!!


Nah, it's YUGE!
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Captn_Ag05
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11:54a, 10/21/24
AG
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:10p, 10/21/24
Captn_Ag05 said:


How can we get Pressler paid?
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TRD-Ferguson
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12:15p, 10/21/24
AG
Just got in line in Georgetown. Line out the door. 45 minute wait. Lived here 37 years. Never seen it like this.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to P.U.T.U • 12:15p, 10/21/24
P.U.T.U said:
Why do I always feel when good news comes out for the republicans I feel it is misinformation? Feel they are trying to get people think it will be a Trump landslide so not as many people show up on election day.
Might be their plan, they usually use Polls to maneuver.

But no one is staying home this election, actually a lot of Dems may not vote
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to TRD-Ferguson • 12:21p, 10/21/24
AG
TRD-Ferguson said:
Just got in line in Georgetown. Line out the door. 45 minute wait. Lived here 37 years. Never seen it like this.
Unfortunately, Williamson County isn't what it used to be.
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Kellso
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12:22p, 10/21/24
Who else got their voting done today?
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 12:23p, 10/21/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:


How can we get Pressler paid?

Lara would be smart to bring him on as director of GOTV for the GOP moving forward.
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normalhorn
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12:37p, 10/21/24
Watching the enthusiasm in EV this year is fun.

But at the end of the day, it'll go like we're all expecting- GOP posts phenomenal turnout. Dem turnout looks weak. Then, evening of 11/5, we start to see the Dem mail in/EV ballots that were "held back", and there go the battleground states.
It's almost as if the machines are communicating with the early vote tabulations, to make sure they know how many held back votes to find.
I've seen this movie before. I don't care to watch the ending again.
...take it easy on me, I'm a normal horn
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Kellso
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In reply to normalhorn • 12:53p, 10/21/24
normalhorn said:
Watching the enthusiasm in EV this year is fun.

But at the end of the day, it'll go like we're all expecting- GOP posts phenomenal turnout. Dem turnout looks weak. Then, evening of 11/5, we start to see the Dem mail in/EV ballots that were "held back", and there go the battleground states.
It's almost as if the machines are communicating with the early vote tabulations, to make sure they know how many held back votes to find.
I've seen this movie before. I don't care to watch the ending again.
Republican voters need to take back the large counties. In 2024 the largest cities and the largest counties tend to be run by the Democrats. The largest counties have the most polling stations.
One of the tricks that the Democrats do is have the largest counties count the republican leaning precincts first.

The Democrats always take a long time to count the votes and they always make sure the doors are open 2 hours past closing time so that "all the votes can be counted".

You will see votes in Atlanta and Philadelphia being counted well into the night and early Morning.
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Captn_Ag05
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12:55p, 10/21/24
AG
Michigan get out of the vote event today for Kamala. So much joy.


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Kellso
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:03p, 10/21/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Michigan get out of the vote event today for Kamala. So much joy.


Trump voters are clearly more excited to vote for Trump. MAGA has been seething for the past 4 years to retake the White House.
The end of this 4 year mission to retake the Presidency will end in 2 weeks.

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2023NCAggies
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In reply to TRD-Ferguson • 1:18p, 10/21/24
TRD-Ferguson said:
Just got in line in Georgetown. Line out the door. 45 minute wait. Lived here 37 years. Never seen it like this.
Texas? Hopefully it starts trending back RED. We need to get an outreach program badly in Texas, convince these new people moving to outside Austin areas to vote R. IT can be done.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:19p, 10/21/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Michigan get out of the vote event today for Kamala. So much joy.


Look, she cannot read the teleprompter

Cheney...... Fing hope they go after that B****
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 1:20p, 10/21/24
FTAG 2000 said:
2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:


How can we get Pressler paid?

Lara would be smart to bring him on as director of GOTV for the GOP moving forward.
I subscribed to his X account, wish I could pay more than 4 dollars a month. I would give at least 25
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jr15aggie
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 1:25p, 10/21/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
TRD-Ferguson said:
Just got in line in Georgetown. Line out the door. 45 minute wait. Lived here 37 years. Never seen it like this.
Texas? Hopefully it starts trending back RED. We need to get an outreach program badly in Texas, convince these new people moving to outside Austin areas to vote R. IT can be done.


Line is still really long at 1:30. At the main annex in Georgetown which is the main voting location for Williamson County.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:02p, 10/21/24
AG
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LMCane
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2:22p, 10/21/24
everything looking good except Pennsylvania

we crushed in adding GOP voters to the rolls in the final day- now a 297,000 lead for the democrats when it was over 700,000 lead for democrats in 2016

but we are trailing badly again in early mail in voting- with over 700,000 submitted. we could be entering election day AGAIN trailing by half a million votes.

no bueno

this could be a fatal mistake. they are spending all their time registering new voters and not getting voters to vote early.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:23p, 10/21/24
AG
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