***Official Early Vote Tracking*** - Page 4

2023NCAggies

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8:43a, 10/3/24

Really Really need this kind of effort in NC and Georgia, especially after the storm. Do not think for a second Harris and her band of idiots will help those people get to the polls.

Charlie Kirk is hitting it hard in Arizona, ton of focus there.

🚨LAUNCHING: The Pennsylvania Chase

GOP leaders have failed the grassroots

No more excuses

The time for action is now

The Pennsylvania Chase will deploy ballot chasers to knock on 500,000 doors chasing GOP ballots

SPONSOR a LIBERTY BALLOT CHASER: https://t.co/FU7sARO43V pic.twitter.com/kNbguA0niu
— Cliff Maloney (@Maloney) November 29, 2023

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2023NCAggies

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8:58a, 10/3/24

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2024-national-poll-harris-50-trump-48/

2023NCAggies

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9:07a, 10/3/24

𝕏 is the #1 source for news on Earth! pic.twitter.com/6h4e7ENKBh
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2024

uh oh. Trends..........

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2023NCAggies

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9:09a, 10/3/24

Sorry old info post

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2023NCAggies

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9:18a, 10/3/24

https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker

https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker

https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker

https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker

RED AG 98

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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 9:20a, 10/3/24

AG

2023NCAggies said:
Good news or bad news?

.@texastribune’s early voting tracker has been updated: 51% of registered voters in Texas have cast a ballot with two full days of early vote + Election Day still to come. This has been a crappy turnout state forever, so pretty, pretty, pretty good https://t.co/9SOgjdQ4hW #tx2020 pic.twitter.com/NdvBiEj9xG
— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) October 29, 2020

you know that's 4 years old right?

Fenrir

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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 9:20a, 10/3/24

2023NCAggies said:
Good news or bad news?

.@texastribune’s early voting tracker has been updated: 51% of registered voters in Texas have cast a ballot with two full days of early vote + Election Day still to come. This has been a crappy turnout state forever, so pretty, pretty, pretty good https://t.co/9SOgjdQ4hW #tx2020 pic.twitter.com/NdvBiEj9xG
— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) October 29, 2020

That's from 2020 election.

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2023NCAggies

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In reply to Fenrir • 9:25a, 10/3/24

Oh geez why the hell was that on the front page of my search. Damn google

Sorry guys I will delete that one. But on that note, I bet it is not nearly that high today, and we scrubbed damn near an million off the rolls

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coolerguy12

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9:36a, 10/3/24

AG

Early voting doesn't start till 10/21. So I'm sure you're correct that it's not that high today.

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2023NCAggies

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In reply to coolerguy12 • 9:58a, 10/3/24

coolerguy12 said:
Early voting doesn't start till 10/21. So I'm sure you're correct that it's not that high today.

10/4, will be interesting to see the comparison when the same date comes around. Kinda new to the tracking, and that was the first thing I saw. Note to self, check dates ha

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2023NCAggies

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10:00a, 10/3/24

So looking at PA, is it normal for this to be so lopsided? I know Rs vote on election day, but damn that is a lot more

https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker

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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 10:14a, 10/3/24

AG

2023NCAggies said:
So looking at PA, is it normal for this to be so lopsided? I know Rs vote on election day, but damn that is a lot more

https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker

Yes, Republicans are actually doing quite a bit better than previous couple of cycles. Overall number of ballots is down too. Pennsylvania typically has a huge Dem advantage in mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania.

They are also counted and reported at one time and they don't start tabulating until election day. That is why you had a 600,000 vote drop in 2020. Be prepared for that again this election. Trump will be up in early reporting and then there will be a drop of several hundred thousand votes. As of now, the number looks like it will be lower than in 2020.

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2023NCAggies

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10:31a, 10/3/24

WISCONSIN 🚨🚨🚨

Since 2020, the state's reddest county, Waukesha, gained +2,447 voters.

But Milwaukee, the state's bluest county, LOST -35,205 voters.

All in a state that was decided by 20,000 votes.
— Ben Larrabee, Father of the Year (@Ben_Larrabee) October 2, 2024

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Captn_Ag05

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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:01p, 10/3/24

AG

Captn_Ag05 said:
2023NCAggies said:
So looking at PA, is it normal for this to be so lopsided? I know Rs vote on election day, but damn that is a lot more

https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker
Yes, Republicans are actually doing quite a bit better than previous couple of cycles. Overall number of ballots is down too. Pennsylvania typically has a huge Dem advantage in mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania.

They are also counted and reported at one time and they don't start tabulating until election day. That is why you had a 600,000 vote drop in 2020. Be prepared for that again this election. Trump will be up in early reporting and then there will be a drop of several hundred thousand votes. As of now, the number looks like it will be lower than in 2020.

And republicans are making it closer every day

#NEW PENNSYLVANIA mail-in ballot requests

🔵 Democratic: 61.8% [-4.2]
🔴 Republican: 26.9% [+2.9]
✅ GOP+7.1

[+/- from this point in 2020]

Data: PA Dept. of State & @WinWithJMC
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 3, 2024

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2:40p, 10/3/24

OMG... this reporter interviewed the striking port workers and asked if any of them support Harris - their reaction is HILARIOUS

"Harris supports the strike. She wanted to know how many folks support her .... Uhh... any hands? No hands... OK."

THIS IS IN NEW JERSEY

🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/sjnWCIVA1f
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 3, 2024

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will25u

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4:29p, 10/3/24

NORTH CAROLINA

Change in voter registration by party since 2020, current as of 9/28 update.

97 of 100 counties shift Republican since 2020.

For your convenience, I've flagged the Helene impacted counties in yellow. Can you figure out now why they're being slow rolled for… pic.twitter.com/pMFtXtVoG5
— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) October 3, 2024

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2023NCAggies

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4:50p, 10/3/24

This is kinda interesting. Vote participation was up 5.2%, kinda getting a vibe the turnout will be less this election. They average around 70% turnout rate the 3 elections before 2020, 2020 was 76.5.

A pretty interesting point - that VBM in PA will be similar to 2022.

In 2022, the final vote by mail was 69%D and 23% R.

Right now, the requests are trending toward 61%D and 27%R.

Maybe math doesn't math for me, but that's a net GOP swing from 2022 of 12 points.

And that's if… https://t.co/6xRNheBs3L
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 3, 2024

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5:06p, 10/3/24

Hope they can get this handled before election.

Wow https://t.co/kvMX40u3px
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 3, 2024

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5:13p, 10/3/24

Another day of Virginia early voting and still no sign of the promised DM mail ballot surge.

20,000 ballots expected - just 9.8k delivered!

There is no processing backlog, Dems are just returning their ballots slower than 2020 or 2021 - not a great sign for enthusiasm
— Election2024 Updates (@MadAboutSkin01) October 3, 2024

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7:37p, 10/3/24

McCormick might pull it off. Destroyed Casey's ass here

PA Senate Candidate Dave McCormick TORCHES Bob Casey for supporting the Biden-Harris OPEN BORDER policies that have weakened our country pic.twitter.com/ohlXdYzM1A
— Kaelan Dorr (@KDORR_USA) October 4, 2024

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9:47p, 10/3/24

Always a good sign when Carville says get off your ass. He's freaking out lol too bad you can't switch again. What a putz

https://www.foxnews.com/media/james-carville-unloads-harris-walz-campaign-ineffective-response-vances-obamacare-comments-move

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nortex97

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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 6:19a, 10/4/24

AG

PA is just going to be very close, period.

https://t.co/Z8sG9Mo2yR
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 4, 2024

I think Eric is slightly optimistic but it's pretty much too early to make any real projections yet.

This guy is also neglecting that NoVa counties quadruple the voting stations in the last few weeks. Not sure why he is claiming there was supposed to be a 'week 2 surge' of Dem ballots.

For balance Republicans are not having it all their own way either. SW VA (Trump stronghold) has seen a huge slowdown in early voting in the past 4 days due to flooding and hurricane damage.
As these counties recover can the GOP regain momentum in these areas.
— Election2024 Updates (@MadAboutSkin01) October 2, 2024

Again, too early to tell in PA or VA based on mail in early ballots. Decent data, sure, but it won't mean anything until we are around 14 days out, imho.

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9:20a, 10/4/24

AG

🚨 North Carolina mail got redder today.

Mail in NC is ~20 points more Republican than it was in 2020 so far.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 4, 2024

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10:14a, 10/4/24

2024 New Hampshire GE - St Anselm, 10/1-10/2, 2104LV

Fairweighted™ Poll:

🔴 Trump 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris 47%

PollFair Weighting: R+8 (23% D, 31% R, 46% I)

St Anselm Weighting: R+1 (30% D, 31% R, 39% I)

Original Poll:

Trump 44%
Harris 51% (+7)#NewHampshireElection2024…
— PollFair (@poll_fair) October 4, 2024

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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 12:55p, 10/4/24

AG

2023NCAggies said:
2024 New Hampshire GE - St Anselm, 10/1-10/2, 2104LV

Fairweighted™ Poll:

🔴 Trump 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris 47%

PollFair Weighting: R+8 (23% D, 31% R, 46% I)

St Anselm Weighting: R+1 (30% D, 31% R, 39% I)

Original Poll:

Trump 44%
Harris 51% (+7)#NewHampshireElection2024…
— PollFair (@poll_fair) October 4, 2024

This is not related to early voting and also the reweighing thing is laughable. Remember the people the reweighed the Romney Obama polls to show Romney winning easily? They went out of business.

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8:08p, 10/4/24

Looking better than 2020

#NEW PENNSYLVANIA & NORTH CAROLINA mail-in ballot update [+/- over the past week]

PA:
🔵 Democratic: 61.63% [-0.87]
🔴 Republican: 27.03% [+0.52]

NC:
🔵 Democratic: 36.13% [-0.55]
🔴 Republican: 24.79% [+0.59]

From this point in 2020, PA is R+7.4, NC is R+16.7.

Data:…
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 5, 2024

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8:12p, 10/4/24

As a GOP voter, though, I take some pause when it appears that NJ Dems have "flipped" previous years' GOP return rate:

- 2024: 19.5% Dem vs 18.2% GOP return rate
- 2022: 11.12% Dem vs 12.65% GOP return ratehttps://t.co/P0vw3jNSiH
— petebray (@petebray) October 4, 2024

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8:18p, 10/4/24

EVENING EV TURNOUT RECAP

(At least) 1591K have voted (+13K since tracker)
52.9M have requested a ballot
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 5, 2024

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8:19p, 10/4/24

Did The Governor get the voting executive order passed to clean the rolls in Virginia?

3g. For non party reg states,GA can be compared to 2020:1188K mail requests at this point in time in 2020;208K now.
3h. And in VA, 1336K mail requests at this point in time in 2020, 501K now

VOTES DETAIL
4a. In VA, IP+Mail went from 386K to 425K. (596K in 2020)
(5/)
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 4, 2024

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8:22p, 10/4/24

For context: at this point in time in 2022: there were 91,186 mail ballots returned out of 926,900 requests (9.84% return rate).

11.12% return rate for the Democrats, 12.65% for the Republicans, 4.88% for the Unaffiliated

Impressive return rate so far. Keep it up, mail voters!
— Ryan Dubicki (@DubickiRyan) October 4, 2024

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8:38p, 10/4/24

Things looking pretty damn good so far compared to 2020. Right now R turnout is up, requests, and returns.

Very early but these numbers point to two things so far. A lot less people will vote this election, DEMs being the clear majority losing more

Only way it matters now is give a good idea on trending.

REQUEST DETAIL

3a: FL:5.31M requests(46-31% D/R) in 2020. In 2024, 2.95M(43-35% D/R)
3b: IA:633K requests(53-30% D/R) in 2020. In 2024, 129K(54-28% D/R)
3c: ME:277K requests(56-17% D/R) in 2020. In 2024, 107K(53-17% D/R)
(3/)
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 4, 2024

3d: NC:1298K requests (47-19% D/R) in 20. In 24, 274K (36-25% D/R)
3e:PA:2.34M requests (66-24% D/R) in 20, In 24, 1.5M(62-27% D/R)
3f. Racial composition of mail requests:72-11% w/b in NC and 53.5-29% w/b in GA (slight incr in white %)
(4/)
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 4, 2024

3g. For non party reg states,GA can be compared to 2020:1188K mail requests at this point in time in 2020;208K now.
3h. And in VA, 1336K mail requests at this point in time in 2020, 501K now

VOTES DETAIL
4a. In VA, IP+Mail went from 386K to 425K. (596K in 2020)
(5/)
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 4, 2024

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nortex97

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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 4:13a, 10/5/24

AG

I think Youngkin did clean the rolls in VA, at least, a small amount. Some analysis/projections on PA/NC so far;

#NEW PENNSYLVANIA & NORTH CAROLINA mail-in ballot update [+/- over the past week]

PA:
🔵 Democratic: 61.63% [-0.87]
🔴 Republican: 27.03% [+0.52]

NC:
🔵 Democratic: 36.13% [-0.55]
🔴 Republican: 24.79% [+0.59]

From this point in 2020, PA is R+7.4, NC is R+16.7.

Data:…
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 5, 2024

Democrat actions such as Kamala taping a 'call her daddy' podcast yesterday, might be driving the spike in turnout;

Precisely. The storm may also make people in lesser-impacted parts of North Carolina more pissed off at Kamala Harris. In fact - why wouldn’t it? https://t.co/AWS5nSt892
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 5, 2024

Either there's something majorly wrong with the polling, the postal service, or Democrats are just not enthused to vote this time. Or a mix of all three!
— Callum 🐍⸆⸉ (@LewisCallum) October 5, 2024

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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:43a, 10/5/24

Just gives the dems more time to make the necessary "adjustments."

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12:00a, 10/6/24

ELON MUSK: "Vote, vote, vote! Fight, fight, fight!"

Register to vote here 👉https://t.co/iq5VyfBEg2 pic.twitter.com/YJzppNUfdj
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) October 5, 2024

Elon doesn't lose. Just sayin

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12:17a, 10/6/24

AG

Early Voting Increase In Virginia
🟥 It's a red flag for Harris & Dems 🟥

Slow early voting has been a worry for Dems but with turnout surging in GOP counties its now a huge issue
Friday turnout Vs week before
⚪Statewide +35%
🔵Strong Harris Counties +18%
🔴Strong Trump + 57%!!
— Election2024 Updates (@MadAboutSkin01) October 5, 2024

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