***Official Early Vote Tracking***

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Captn_Ag05
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9:19a, 9/12/24
AG
I didn't want to clog up the polling thread with this information. There are a few states that already have meaningful data on ballot requests. Right now North Carolina and Florida have the most data and Pennsylvania and Georgia will follow soon.

There will be an update on Florida later this morning.

9/12 update for North Carolina




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TexAgs91
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9:21a, 9/12/24
AG
> ***Official Early Vote Tracking***

Thread fail. For it to be official, you need 5 asterisks on each side.
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AggieZUUL
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9:22a, 9/12/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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10:14a, 9/12/24
AG
Nevada updated registration

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Captn_Ag05
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11:16a, 9/12/24
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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11:17a, 9/12/24
AG
Also, you can track Florida mail in ballots as they are returned and logged on this site. So far, two ballots have been returned. Democrats a being shut out

https://flvoicenews.com/florida-ge-live-data/
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Hondo.
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In reply to AggieZUUL • 11:38a, 9/12/24
AggieZUUL said:


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TheEternalOptimist
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11:56a, 9/12/24
None of this will matter if Merrick Garland is able to use the DOJ to stifle state laws to prevent fraud. It's quite concerning.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Hondo. • 11:57a, 9/12/24
AG
Thought this might be of interest since it is all over the internet already, but I can refrain...
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Captn_Ag05
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12:45p, 9/12/24
AG
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PA24
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12:50p, 9/12/24
AG
Trump 2024
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4stringAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:53p, 9/12/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Thought this might be of interest since it is all over the internet already, but I can refrain...
Some of us appreciate what you are doing and find it valuable. Please keep posting what you find.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:03a, 9/13/24
AG
North Carolina 9/13





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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:07a, 9/13/24
AG
The decline in black voters in NC, combined with Trump doing something like 5 or 10 percent better in that demographic, makes me wonder why polls show NC as close as they do.

Thx for starting/keeping up with this thread, btw.
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Captn_Ag05
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12:24p, 9/15/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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12:25p, 9/15/24
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Captn_Ag05
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1:27p, 9/16/24
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Captn_Ag05
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1:29p, 9/16/24
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Captn_Ag05
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9:26a, 9/17/24
AG
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billydean05
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9:36a, 9/17/24
Just a brief warning about getting too excited comparing 2024 to 2020. Remember in 2020 COVID was chief on many people especially democrats mind and they were afraid to vote in person. Probably comparing percentages to 2022 would be more valid or maybe even 2016 or at least between 2016 and 2020.
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to billydean05 • 9:52a, 9/17/24
AG
It's still insane that almost 1.5M are voting by mail
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to billydean05 • 10:10a, 9/17/24
AG
Pennsylvania has been a big vote by mail state for Dems for several election cycles.
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Rocag
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In reply to billydean05 • 10:13a, 9/17/24
AG
billydean05 said:
Just a brief warning about getting too excited comparing 2024 to 2020. Remember in 2020 COVID was chief on many people especially democrats mind and they were afraid to vote in person. Probably comparing percentages to 2022 would be more valid or maybe even 2016 or at least between 2016 and 2020.
Yeah, I'd expect overall vote by mail numbers to be way down this year compared to 2020. And remember in 2020 Trump was pretty constantly telling his supporters voting by mail wasn't safe/reliable which only served to reduce Republican mail in voting. There's less of that this time around.
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Artorias
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In reply to Rocag • 10:15a, 9/17/24
AG
Rocag said:
billydean05 said:
Just a brief warning about getting too excited comparing 2024 to 2020. Remember in 2020 COVID was chief on many people especially democrats mind and they were afraid to vote in person. Probably comparing percentages to 2022 would be more valid or maybe even 2016 or at least between 2016 and 2020.
Yeah, I'd expect overall vote by mail numbers to be way down this year compared to 2020. And remember in 2020 Trump was pretty constantly telling his supporters voting by mail wasn't safe/reliable which only served to reduce Republican mail in voting. There's less of that this time around.
Considering the Postal worker union endorsed Harris, I would not rely on mail in voting if I was in anything close to a swing state.
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:30a, 9/17/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Pennsylvania has been a big vote by mail state for Dems for several election cycles.
This year/cycle the GOP changed tactics on this though, realizing a lot of disasters on Election Day led to many not being able/patient enough to cast their votes. In PA, as in most states, they do make it pretty simple to track whether your mail-in ballot was accepted. Ultimately, it saves the party/campaign money and risk to get folks to vote early.

And, ballots are going out starting today (commies kept Cornel West off the ballot in PA).



It won't mean a lot for many weeks, but I think it will still be interesting to track.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:09p, 9/17/24
AG
Black ballot requests down in Georgia and NC

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Captn_Ag05
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5:49p, 9/17/24
AG
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 5:53p, 9/17/24
AG
I truly do not remotely understand having nearly two months of early voting in PA with no in person voting. What is the point?
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William K. Klingaman
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5:55p, 9/17/24
Why do Dems get such a larger number of mail in ballots, and why is this not a red flag every election?
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Captn_Ag05
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12:00p, 9/18/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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12:02p, 9/18/24
AG
I think we are seeing the George Floyd effect on the 2020 election. Black vote percentage is down rather dramatically in North Carolina and Georgia in 2024. George Floyd and the BLM movement had black voters extremely motivated to vote in 2020. It will be interesting to see if this trend is seen in other states as well.
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nortex97
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10:50a, 9/19/24
AG




Mainly just wanted to bump this back to the first page.
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CoachtobeNamed$$$
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11:00a, 9/19/24
Captn, this is a great thread. Thanks for kicking it off.
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Silvertaps
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11:07a, 9/19/24
AG
For clarification, mail in ballots historically are heavier for democrats. Voting in person (whether early or day of) historically are heavier for Republicans.

Correct me if I'm wrong or if there is more to it.
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nortex97
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In reply to Silvertaps • 11:17a, 9/19/24
AG
You are correct, though it varies by state. In Colorado for instance almost all voting is by mail (they have a pretty good system, fwiw).

And folks like Scott Pressler have led the way in getting the GOP to flip more to supporting/pushing early voting, to decrease risk/costs to rely on everything going well on Election Day itself. The trends within a given state (where the state matters especially) are what is most interesting.
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