will25u said:

---

GenericAggie said:

---

Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

---

Ask and you shall receive.

#New General Election Poll

🔵 Michelle Obama 50%
🔴 Trump 39%

Ipsos B - 1070 A - 6/29 pic.twitter.com/8tVDBKHgwv

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

---

So Trump gets an all time low against Michelle?

Mike Obama would be a horrible president (well we all know who would be president).

Likely. It's also possibly one that is set up with questions like: In light of President Biden's disastrous debate performance increase concerns about his cognitive abilities, who are you voting for between Joe Biden and his opponent?

it will be slightly more difficult to play that race card against VP Byron Donalds... which is probably why Trump is going to pick Burgrum or something lol.

stink eye can't take the smoke, but it would be fun to watch her deal with what's in store. her

will25u said:

---

GenericAggie said:

---

Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

---

Ask and you shall receive.

#New General Election Poll

🔵 Michelle Obama 50%
🔴 Trump 39%

Ipsos B - 1070 A - 6/29 pic.twitter.com/8tVDBKHgwv

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

---

Gas lighting, no way it would be that lopsided. Earlier poll had Trump up 3 on her, no telling how people will see it

2023NCAggies said:

---

will25u said:

---

GenericAggie said:

---

Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

---

Ask and you shall receive.

#New General Election Poll

🔵 Michelle Obama 50%
🔴 Trump 39%

Ipsos B - 1070 A - 6/29 pic.twitter.com/8tVDBKHgwv

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

---

Gas lighting, no way it would be that lopsided. Earlier poll had Trump up 3 on her, no telling how people will see it

---

Exactly. She wouldn't make it.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4752020-vice-president-harris-trump-biden-poll/

And yes, it is a CNN poll. Simply adding it to the thread, nothing more, nothing less.

Rapier108 said:

---

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4752020-vice-president-harris-trump-biden-poll/

And yes, it is a CNN poll. Simply adding it to the thread, nothing more, nothing less.

---

So Kamala has lower approval ratings but runs better than Biden against Trump.

We gave too many people in this country the right to vote.

This a thread about polls. Any new polling today

Dems have an enthusiasm problem.

NEW @CBSNews poll:

—Trump has a 3-point edge across the battleground states collectively, and a 2-point edge nationally. 

—Republicans say the debate made them more likely to vote.

—If you factor in 3rd party candidates, Trump leads Biden nationally by 4 points. pic.twitter.com/CuzPKjTSwX

— Weijia Jiang (@weijia) July 3, 2024

will25u said:

---

Dems have an enthusiasm problem.

NEW @CBSNews poll:

—Trump has a 3-point edge across the battleground states collectively, and a 2-point edge nationally. 

—Republicans say the debate made them more likely to vote.

—If you factor in 3rd party candidates, Trump leads Biden nationally by 4 points. pic.twitter.com/CuzPKjTSwX

— Weijia Jiang (@weijia) July 3, 2024

---

If Trump is tied or leads nationally come election day, he will crush the Dems.

(NY Times/Siena poll)
Trump's lead:
Whites w/o college: +39
Men: +27
Didn't Vote in 2020: +22
Gen X: +20
Whites: +19
Independents: +10
Hispanics: +9
Suburbanites: +4

Biden's lead:
Blacks: +58
City Dwellers: +15
Whites w/ college: +11
Women: +7
Seniors: +4

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) July 3, 2024

will25u said:

---

(NY Times/Siena poll)
Trump's lead:
Whites w/o college: +39
Men: +27
Didn't Vote in 2020: +22
Gen X: +20
Whites: +19
Independents: +10
Hispanics: +9
Suburbanites: +4

Biden's lead:
Blacks: +58
City Dwellers: +15
Whites w/ college: +11
Women: +7
Seniors: +4

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) July 3, 2024

---

Sure wish they would clarify if that's all registered voters, likely to vote, etc.

Don't have the cross tabs, but I think the top line was Trump +6 LV, Trump +8 RV.

📊 NEW JERSEY GE: (R) internal

🟥 Trump: 43%
🟦 Biden: 41%
⬜ Undecided: 16%
—
🟦 Biden: 38%
🟥 Trump: 38%
🟨 Kennedy: 8%
🟩 Stein: 3%
⬜ Undecided: 13%
—
🟦 Kim: 35%
🟥 Bashaw: 33%
🟨 Menendez: 6%
⬜ Undecided: 26%
---
H2H
🟦 Kim: 41%
🟥 Bashaw: 39%
⬜ Undecided: 20%
—… pic.twitter.com/QB8XkPPrv3

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 3, 2024

I have updated my analysis of the latest polls. This go round I compared 2020 results to 2024 most recent state polls to 2024 adj 2020 results based on region adjustment from latest NY Times region %s (Link to NY Poll)

2020 Results Electoral Votes (Actual)
Region____Biden___Trump
Midwest____56______59
Northeast___94______0
South______42______151
West______109______19

Total_______306____232 *(regions are missing Nebraska & Maine partial EVs)

2024 Polls implied Electoral Votes (looking at individual states)
Region____Biden___Trump
Midwest____30______85
Northeast___54______40 (New Jersey latest Poll has Trump up)
South______26______167
West______92______36

Total_______202____328 *(regions are missing Nebraska & Maine partial EVs)

2024 Region Adj Polls of 2020 results Electoral Votes (looking at adjustment to individual states)
Region____Biden___Trump
Midwest____20______95 (Flips Minnesota to Trump)
Northeast___68______26 (NJ is still for Biden based on this method)
South______13______180 (has Virginia going R)
West______92______36

Total_______193____337 *(regions are missing Nebraska & Maine partial EVs)

What the above says, ignoring that most of the state polls are pre debate; is a convergence of region polling and state results. What is even bigger is that the NYT poll had women +5% over men. So it is not generous in selection.

Where did this come from?

Man we need to be providing sources to stuff like that.

nortex97 said:

---

Does Garvey have a shot?

---

LOL no.

Losing by 10 would be a great result. Twenty is more likely.

[Staff note to the board and not directed at this specific poster: We cleaned up the derails related to Biden's debate performance, him potentially dropping out of the race, and who his replacement would be if he did. Let's keep the comments going forward related to polls which is the OP focus of this thread. If you want to engage on those other topics, please join another thread that already exists on the topic or start a new one -- Staff]