Every election this century has been 'close' at a national vote-total, perhaps setting aside Obama's 1st one (which should be discounted for various reasons, imho). If places like NM are looking like this according to good/real pollsters, it's a…big deal.

#New General Election Poll - New Mexico

🔵 Biden 48% (+7)
🔴 Trump 41%

Public policy #B+ - 555 RV - 6/14

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 18, 2024

New Mexico? You're kidding, right?

Drahknor03 said:

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I said statistical noise. A poll showing a 1% movement in Trump's overall favor but a 15% decrease in independent support is statistical noise. All it really does is confirm that the race is really close.

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Good post.

Nope. It's going to be very competitive thanks to the open border/invasion scheme of Biden. The last Dem poll (PPP) had Biden up 7, and the senate race is only a 3 point game right now.

This one is funny too (and related to NM/hispanics); Dem's race coalition falling apart:

Quote:

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The multi-ethnic Obama coalition once seemed unbreakable. With overwhelming support from non-white voters, demographic trends pointed to an emergingDemocratic majority. But then, after the 2016 election, a surprising thing happened: the rainbow coalition began to dissolve.

Today, the Democratic Party can no longer count on unified minority support. Democrats now hold a (historically) modest 47-point advantage among black voters, the lowest Gallup has ever recorded. Among Hispanics, the advantage is just 12 points. Then there's the nation's fastest growing minority group: Asians. In April, Pew reported that just four in ten approved of President Biden, down from nearly six in ten in 2022.

Observers have offered varying explanations for these trends. One is that minorities are more likely to feel the effects of progressives' soft-on-crime policies. Another is inflation, currently the top concern of Hispanic voters. And then one has to account for the celebrity charisma of Donald Trump, whoas evidenced by his recent rally in the south Bronxappeals to non-white, blue-collar voters in a way that no other GOP standard bearer has.

However, a more systemic factor is also driving minorities' political evolution: the diminishing value of using racial appeals in a multi-ethnic democracy premised on equality of opportunity over equality of outcomes. Put simply, it becomes practically impossible to hold a diverse coalition of minority groups together while embracing policies that benefit some of those groups at the expense of others.

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Or how about Iowa? Is Trump+18 indicative this 'once battleground' state among others in the Midwest are trending red? To me the amazing thing is that Moreno is still 5 down against Brown over in Ohio, on the other hand.

These polls are way, way too close. Democrats live in a complete fantasy world. This should not be a close election.

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may

Biden takes lead 50-48 in latest Fox poll

Trump leads the average.

Barnyard96 said:

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Trump leads the average.

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Won't be that way for long as soon as all of the polls from right after the trial fall off.

I guess then we'll be back to all the polls are fake since Trump isn't leading.

That last sentence reads like sarcasm.

Barnyard96 said:

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Trump leads the average.

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We'll see if the average holds up.

The last couple of polls have shown independent support has dropped off enough due to the conviction to tip the scales to Biden.

Of course that's at the national level. It will be interesting to see what happens in the key swing states.

The debates and Trump's VP selection could decide the election.

Rapier108 said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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Trump leads the average.

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Won't be that way for long as soon as all of the polls from right after the trial fall off.

I guess then we'll be back to all the polls are fake since Trump isn't leading.

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The polls tightening and/or Biden taking the lead in national polls was as predictable as the sun rising. Like clockwork. Even though every individual metric favors Trump heavily, the national "polls" will show a close race so when Biden wins surprisingly, they can say "the polls were right!"

TDS consumes some people. Sad.

95% of the Trumpers on here have been crowing for months about how awful Biden is and how he is going down

then we have reality:

Biden has lead over Trump

[Nikki Haley is not in the polls, and your attempt to bring her into the thread to disparage Trump is trolling. Keep it up and earn some time off. Conversation on the candidates in the polls is relevant -- Staff]

people will laugh at how stupid the Republican voters were during the 2020s. it would be like the idiots running Mike Dukakis in 1984 and 1988.

Last THREE National polls with a 34 trillion dollar debt, two major wars, 10 million illegals, highest inflation in decades, increasing unemployment:

Biden +2
Biden +1
Tied

great work!

Biden is leading even BEFORE he spends billions and cheats..

Meanwhile, if Biden is only up 8 in NY, Trump's hitting the sack before 10pm as POTUS-elect on Election night.

📊 NEW YORK GE: @SienaResearch

🟦 Biden: 47% (+8)
🟥 Trump: 39%
🟪 Other: 5%

Independents: Trump 45-28%
---
Trends
• June 2023: Biden +22
• Feb. 2024: Biden +11
• June 2024: Biden +8
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 50% (+15)
🟥 GOP: 35%

Independents: GOP 38-31%
—
Fav/unfav… pic.twitter.com/dV2IuIC2TA

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 20, 2024

My point from earlier stands. A three point movement in any given poll is statistical noise. Trends matter. Earlier this week had a Reuters poll with a 3-point shift to Trump. If Trump is down 2 or less nationally on Election Day, he is going to win the White House.

LMCane said:

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people will laugh at how stupid the Republican voters were during the 2020s. it would be like the idiots running Mike Dukakis in 1984 and 1988.

Last THREE National polls with a 34 trillion dollar debt, two major wars, 10 million illegals, highest inflation in decades, increasing unemployment:

Biden +2
Biden +1
Tied

great work!

Biden is leading even BEFORE he spends billions and cheats..

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Your take away is to say Republican voters are stupid when with all of the issues stated above you don't connect the dots that the Democrat voters are the ones voting for continuing our problems?

I know Trump is the boogeyman to a lot of people, but at least be honest that the Republicans could nominate Jesus and there is an overwhelming amount of D voters that still would pull the lever for any Democrat instead. We have a D voter problem, not a R nominee problem.

Biden won NY by 23 in 2020. That's how much the electorate has shifted, imho.

I'm a big believer that A poll is noise, but THE polls tell a story. Even with yesterday's FoxNews poll, this is the current story:

(3) I'll confess: the idea for this "perspective" came from looking at 538/RCP's poll averages and seeing "on this day in 2020/2016" in the RCP site. Without further ado/rambling, I thought I'd reproduce that data so you can see the overall impact of this ONE FOX News poll:
(2/2) pic.twitter.com/1qQluUb3fS

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) June 20, 2024

To my old and untrained eyes, it seems the polls are all over the place and heavily manipulated. You guys may have an idea but I have no idea what the actual polling truth is right now.

It's pretty obvious the TDS and Democrats among us are grumpy about how different the polls look now vs. 2020.

Right now Trump is winning. Everyone with skin in the game says Trump is winning. Election data prognosticators lose their jobs when they screw up. When Harry Enten, Dave Wasserman, John Couvillon, Larry Sabato, and Nate Silver are all saying the same thing, that Trump is currently winning, Trump's probably currently winning.

Welcome back!!

Drahknor03 said:

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Right now Trump is winning. Everyone with skin in the game says Trump is winning. Election data prognosticators lose their jobs when they screw up. When Harry Enten, Dave Wasserman, John Couvillon, Larry Sabato, and Nate Silver are all saying the same thing, that Trump is currently winning, Trump's probably currently winning.

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No doubt he is winning.

It is tightening somewhat which I think most of us expected, but he is winning.

The FoxNews poll is within the margin of error of the last FoxNews poll. Kind of a silly thing to be spiking footballs over.

agsalaska said:

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Welcome back!!

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You too. You were right!

With the Democrats running the worst candidate in a generation or more, there is no logical reason it should be this close. Then again, there's no logical reason for his opponent to be the worst candidate the republicans could have come up with, but here we are.

Monkeypoxfighter said:

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With the Democrats running the worst candidate in a generation or more, there is no logical reason it should be this close. Then again, there's no logical reason for his opponent to be the worst candidate the republicans could have come up with, but here we are.

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It's amazing this is what we're looking at isn't it. American people deserve better.

what is the second blue line?

the actual vote on election day versus the poll for June 20, 2016?

Rockdoc said:

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Monkeypoxfighter said:

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With the Democrats running the worst candidate in a generation or more, there is no logical reason it should be this close. Then again, there's no logical reason for his opponent to be the worst candidate the republicans could have come up with, but here we are.

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It's amazing this is what we're looking at isn't it. American people deserve better.

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No they don't.

if the American people deserved better- they would VOTE AND NOMINATE BETTER CANDIDATES

this is absolutely what we deserve.

want better leaders?

elect better leaders!

Sorry, I guess we just have different attitudes.

Yes. Do you believe that this time Trump is going to do worse on Election Day than he is doing today? Because we've got two solid data points that says he does better than expected when he's on the ballot.

Trump in bed as POTUS-Elect by 10PM-kind of numbers:

New batch of swing state polls from Emerson College. Trump leads in all of them, Minnesota is tied:

Arizona: Trump +4
Georgia: Trump +4
Michigan: Trump +1
Minnesota: TIE
Nevada: Trump +3
Pennsylvania: Trump +2
Wisconsin: Trump +3https://t.co/pCrjSIJ4NC

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 20, 2024

It's pretty clear to me that Trump's conviction has cost him a couple of points primarily from heretofore undecided independents.

The question going forward is can he get any of them back or can he sway some of the remaining undecideds.

Going forward we know the media is going to go all out to shield Biden and paint Trump as the most dangerous villain of all time.

Major events that we know will take place before the election that probably will affect some voters.

1. Debates
2. VP nominee
3. Sentencing for felony offenses

Possible but not likely events that could have a dramatic effect

1. Supreme Court reversal of NY felonies
2. Terrorist event
3. Biden health event

Can Trump stay on message and articulate his plans effectively enough to counter the fear mongering and lies of the media and Biden administration or is he going to moan about the last election and get sidetracked on personal attacks ?

What should be a runaway Republican victory is going to be very close.

Nice.

🇺🇲 2024 GE: Emerson/The Hill

GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 45% (+8)
🟦 Biden: 37%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟨 West: 1%
—
MINNESOTA
🟥 Trump: 42% (+1)
🟦 Biden: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟨 West: 1%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 44% (+2)
🟦 Biden: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟨 West: 1%… https://t.co/AkQGtSPeIY pic.twitter.com/URwZ07CBpc

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 20, 2024

Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.