#New General Election Poll - New Mexico
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 18, 2024
π΅ Biden 48% (+7)
π΄ Trump 41%
Public policy #B+ - 555 RV - 6/14
#New General Election Poll - New Mexico
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 18, 2024
π΅ Biden 48% (+7)
π΄ Trump 41%
Public policy #B+ - 555 RV - 6/14
Drahknor03 said:
I said statistical noise. A poll showing a 1% movement in Trump's overall favor but a 15% decrease in independent support is statistical noise. All it really does is confirm that the race is really close.
Quote:
The multi-ethnic Obama coalition once seemed unbreakable. With overwhelming support from non-white voters, demographic trends pointed to an emergingDemocratic majority. But then, after the 2016 election, a surprising thing happened: the rainbow coalition began to dissolve.
Today, the Democratic Party can no longer count on unified minority support. Democrats now hold a (historically) modest 47-point advantage among black voters, the lowest Gallup has ever recorded. Among Hispanics, the advantage is just 12 points. Then there's the nation's fastest growing minority group: Asians. In April, Pew reported that just four in ten approved of President Biden, down from nearly six in ten in 2022.
Observers have offered varying explanations for these trends. One is that minorities are more likely to feel the effects of progressives' soft-on-crime policies. Another is inflation, currently the top concern of Hispanic voters. And then one has to account for the celebrity charisma of Donald Trump, whoas evidenced by his recent rally in the south Bronxappeals to non-white, blue-collar voters in a way that no other GOP standard bearer has.
However, a more systemic factor is also driving minorities' political evolution: the diminishing value of using racial appeals in a multi-ethnic democracy premised on equality of opportunity over equality of outcomes. Put simply, it becomes practically impossible to hold a diverse coalition of minority groups together while embracing policies that benefit some of those groups at the expense of others.
Won't be that way for long as soon as all of the polls from right after the trial fall off.Barnyard96 said:
Trump leads the average.
We'll see if the average holds up.Barnyard96 said:
Trump leads the average.
The polls tightening and/or Biden taking the lead in national polls was as predictable as the sun rising. Like clockwork. Even though every individual metric favors Trump heavily, the national "polls" will show a close race so when Biden wins surprisingly, they can say "the polls were right!"Rapier108 said:Won't be that way for long as soon as all of the polls from right after the trial fall off.Barnyard96 said:
Trump leads the average.
I guess then we'll be back to all the polls are fake since Trump isn't leading.
π NEW YORK GE: @SienaResearch
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 20, 2024
π¦ Biden: 47% (+8)
π₯ Trump: 39%
πͺ Other: 5%
Independents: Trump 45-28%
---
Trends
β’ June 2023: Biden +22
β’ Feb. 2024: Biden +11
β’ June 2024: Biden +8
β
Generic Ballot
π¦ DEM: 50% (+15)
π₯ GOP: 35%
Independents: GOP 38-31%
β
Fav/unfav⦠pic.twitter.com/dV2IuIC2TA
Your take away is to say Republican voters are stupid when with all of the issues stated above you don't connect the dots that the Democrat voters are the ones voting for continuing our problems?LMCane said:
people will laugh at how stupid the Republican voters were during the 2020s. it would be like the idiots running Mike Dukakis in 1984 and 1988.
Last THREE National polls with a 34 trillion dollar debt, two major wars, 10 million illegals, highest inflation in decades, increasing unemployment:
Biden +2
Biden +1
Tied
great work!
Biden is leading even BEFORE he spends billions and cheats..
(3) I'll confess: the idea for this "perspective" came from looking at 538/RCP's poll averages and seeing "on this day in 2020/2016" in the RCP site. Without further ado/rambling, I thought I'd reproduce that data so you can see the overall impact of this ONE FOX News poll:
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) June 20, 2024
(2/2) pic.twitter.com/1qQluUb3fS
Drahknor03 said:
Right now Trump is winning. Everyone with skin in the game says Trump is winning. Election data prognosticators lose their jobs when they screw up. When Harry Enten, Dave Wasserman, John Couvillon, Larry Sabato, and Nate Silver are all saying the same thing, that Trump is currently winning, Trump's probably currently winning.
agsalaska said:
Welcome back!!
Monkeypoxfighter said:
With the Democrats running the worst candidate in a generation or more, there is no logical reason it should be this close. Then again, there's no logical reason for his opponent to be the worst candidate the republicans could have come up with, but here we are.
Rockdoc said:Monkeypoxfighter said:
With the Democrats running the worst candidate in a generation or more, there is no logical reason it should be this close. Then again, there's no logical reason for his opponent to be the worst candidate the republicans could have come up with, but here we are.
It's amazing this is what we're looking at isn't it. American people deserve better.
New batch of swing state polls from Emerson College. Trump leads in all of them, Minnesota is tied:
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 20, 2024
Arizona: Trump +4
Georgia: Trump +4
Michigan: Trump +1
Minnesota: TIE
Nevada: Trump +3
Pennsylvania: Trump +2
Wisconsin: Trump +3https://t.co/pCrjSIJ4NC
πΊπ² 2024 GE: Emerson/The Hill
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 20, 2024
GEORGIA
π₯ Trump: 45% (+8)
π¦ Biden: 37%
π¨ RFK Jr: 6%
π© Stein: 1%
π¨ West: 1%
β
MINNESOTA
π₯ Trump: 42% (+1)
π¦ Biden: 41%
π¨ RFK Jr: 5%
π© Stein: 1%
π¨ West: 1%
β
MICHIGAN
π₯ Trump: 44% (+2)
π¦ Biden: 42%
π¨ RFK Jr: 5%
π© Stein: 1%
π¨ West: 1%β¦ https://t.co/AkQGtSPeIY pic.twitter.com/URwZ07CBpc