The RCP EC map with toss ups has Trump up 219-202:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/toss-up/electoral-college

The RCP EC "no toss up" map has Trump Winning 312-226:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

Another thing to note is that nobody is polling New Mexico yet. Or at least nobody is releasing polls for them. The last poll done in New Mexico was around Sept last year. Biden was also up in Nevada in Sept of last year. New Mexico has GOP candidates winning statewide offices not that long ago in New Mexico. Pete Domenicis very wealthy daughter is also running for the Senate in New Mexico on law, order, and immigration. The money she spends to try and win a state the size of NM as a GOP candidate might end up helping Trump there.

New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the country. If Trumps message is resonating with Latinos in Nevada it might resonate in New Mexico. If trump can produce turnout there and win NM and NV(long shots sure) and take back AZ and GA. He does not need PA, MI, or WI. That would be a game changer for the GOP and the Dems.

The way these maps are shaping up on President and Senate side, the Dems are going to absolutely need all the extra money they have raised vs the GOP. It's a lot more expensive to be trying to turn markets your direction than to defend a positive position.

Will be interesting to see how this develops as we get to Labor Day.

When looking at national polls: I find the region breakdown a critical stat. Here is that breakdown from Civiqs (funded by daily Kos) link to details

Trump & Biden were tied at 45%.
Here are the region breakdowns

________South____West___MidWest___NorthEast
Trump: ___49%____46%____48%______33%
Biden:____41%____44%____45%______54%

Regions for those who don't know:
NorthEast = PA, NJ & everything to the north east. So PA is the only swing state in that bunch.
South: MD, DC and then everything south of KY, WV & OK.
West: NM, WY, MT, & CO (and everything west).
MidWest: Everything else.

So Trump is ahead in every region but the NorthEast. When you consider California, Oregon & Washington and their relative population size the West being +2% Trump is very interesting for NV, NM & AZ.
South: doesn't really tell much about the swing states like GA or perhaps VA. Too much deep red blood to dominate.
MidWest: Harder to tell. IL will lean democrat but the eastern states are deep red. Ohio is probably not really a swing state anymore either.

policywonk98 said:

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Another thing to note is that nobody is polling New Mexico yet. Or at least nobody is releasing polls for them. The last poll done in New Mexico was around Sept last year. Biden was also up in Nevada in Sept of last year. New Mexico has GOP candidates winning statewide offices not that long ago in New Mexico. Pete Domenicis very wealthy daughter is also running for the Senate in New Mexico on law, order, and immigration. The money she spends to try and win a state the size of NM as a GOP candidate might end up helping Trump there.

New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the country. If Trumps message is resonating with Latinos in Nevada it might resonate in New Mexico. If trump can produce turnout there and win NM and NV(long shots sure) and take back AZ and GA. He does not need PA, MI, or WI. That would be a game changer for the GOP and the Dems.

The way these maps are shaping up on President and Senate side, the Dems are going to absolutely need all the extra money they have raised vs the GOP. It's a lot more expensive to be trying to turn markets your direction than to defend a positive position.

Will be interesting to see how this develops as we get to Labor Day.

---

this may be why Burgum is the VP candidate as he has a ton of money to flood into the RNC

I think Youngkin is also wealthy and major players in Wall Street would back him, and it would put Virginia into play for real.

I would actually be excited if Youngkin is the pick

but likely it will be boring as Pence - Tim Scott.

Tagging to follow

LMCane said:

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policywonk98 said:

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Another thing to note is that nobody is polling New Mexico yet. Or at least nobody is releasing polls for them. The last poll done in New Mexico was around Sept last year. Biden was also up in Nevada in Sept of last year. New Mexico has GOP candidates winning statewide offices not that long ago in New Mexico. Pete Domenicis very wealthy daughter is also running for the Senate in New Mexico on law, order, and immigration. The money she spends to try and win a state the size of NM as a GOP candidate might end up helping Trump there.

New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the country. If Trumps message is resonating with Latinos in Nevada it might resonate in New Mexico. If trump can produce turnout there and win NM and NV(long shots sure) and take back AZ and GA. He does not need PA, MI, or WI. That would be a game changer for the GOP and the Dems.

The way these maps are shaping up on President and Senate side, the Dems are going to absolutely need all the extra money they have raised vs the GOP. It's a lot more expensive to be trying to turn markets your direction than to defend a positive position.

Will be interesting to see how this develops as we get to Labor Day.

---

this may be why Burgum is the VP candidate as he has a ton of money to flood into the RNC

I think Youngkin is also wealthy and major players in Wall Street would back him, and it would put Virginia into play for real.

I would actually be excited if Youngkin is the pick

but likely it will be boring as Pence - Tim Scott.

---

Burgum is not who Trump needs. He needs someone with experience with policy and knows Washington. Cotton and Rubio both bring that. Both would be good picks. Vance is also another that's a finalist.

I'd like Rubio the most of those four then cotton. Both younger. Vast experience. Can be trusted. Both fighters. Rubio would bring some youth and woman votes. Probably some Hispanics.

Oh and Vance is not a safe senate seat, we need him in the senate. Want Younkin to stay governor of Virginia for awhile, try to pull a DeSantis

No to Vance. Rubio had his opportunity window close on becoming a conservative presidential candidate down the road already. Trump will do better, hopefully, than anyone on the Senate Foreign Affairs or Intelligence committee's, all of whom are controlled by the intelligence agencies.

Lake within 1?

📊 ARIZONA GE: @Rasmussen_Poll

🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Biden: 40%
🟪 Other: 9%
---
🟥 Trump: 41%
🟦 Biden: 37%
🟨 RFK Jr: 10%
🟨 West: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
⬜ Undecided: 7%
—
Senate
🟦 Gallego: 44%
🟥 Lake: 41%
🟪 Other: 5%
⬜ Undecided: 10%
---
🟦 Gallego: 40%
🟥 Lake: 39%
🟩 Hernandez:… pic.twitter.com/gFdUnAZCJN

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 14, 2024

2023NCAggies said:

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LMCane said:

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policywonk98 said:

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Another thing to note is that nobody is polling New Mexico yet. Or at least nobody is releasing polls for them. The last poll done in New Mexico was around Sept last year. Biden was also up in Nevada in Sept of last year. New Mexico has GOP candidates winning statewide offices not that long ago in New Mexico. Pete Domenicis very wealthy daughter is also running for the Senate in New Mexico on law, order, and immigration. The money she spends to try and win a state the size of NM as a GOP candidate might end up helping Trump there.

New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the country. If Trumps message is resonating with Latinos in Nevada it might resonate in New Mexico. If trump can produce turnout there and win NM and NV(long shots sure) and take back AZ and GA. He does not need PA, MI, or WI. That would be a game changer for the GOP and the Dems.

The way these maps are shaping up on President and Senate side, the Dems are going to absolutely need all the extra money they have raised vs the GOP. It's a lot more expensive to be trying to turn markets your direction than to defend a positive position.

Will be interesting to see how this develops as we get to Labor Day.

---

this may be why Burgum is the VP candidate as he has a ton of money to flood into the RNC

I think Youngkin is also wealthy and major players in Wall Street would back him, and it would put Virginia into play for real.

I would actually be excited if Youngkin is the pick

but likely it will be boring as Pence - Tim Scott.

---

Burgum is not who Trump needs. He needs someone with experience with policy and knows Washington. Cotton and Rubio both bring that. Both would be good picks. Vance is also another that's a finalist.

I'd like Rubio the most of those four then cotton. Both younger. Vast experience. Can be trusted. Both fighters. Rubio would bring some youth and woman votes. Probably some Hispanics.

Oh and Vance is not a safe senate seat, we need him in the senate. Want Younkin to stay governor of Virginia for awhile, try to pull a DeSantis

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Agree with all of this. Keep GOP senators in place, Virginia and ND governors are not needle-movers. Rubio? please.
Go with Vivek.