outofstateaggie said:

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Top Harris aide says her campaign polling never showed her leading Trump -- and campaign was surprised when public polling did show a Harris lead. Polls were 'showing us with leads that we never saw.' https://t.co/eJjs5L2pSZ pic.twitter.com/kI1yqzdKEj

— Byron York (@ByronYork) November 27, 2024

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When she agreed to do the interview with Brett Baier you know her internal polling had to be brutal. If it showed she was winning she would have gone to election day without doing a single interview (and she tried that for over a month), but especially with a serious journalist.

aggiehawg said:

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SwigAg11 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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As had been said repeatedly on this thread, internal polls are much more accurate than public polling because of costs. Internal polls are much more expensive and you get what you pay for.

Real Clear Politics also needs to retool the polls they use to reach their averages. Many of the public polls were pure garbage and should not be used again.

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I think RCP's issue is that they try to not appear partisan by weighting the polls based on past performance, even if some should simply be tossed out.

ETA: Then you get Silver's weightings which are ludicrous. At this point, you should only look at AI, Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Baris.

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Maybe RCP should have a two tiered average. The good polls and then a second tier, called, "The Best of the Rest."

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I listened to them tonight while driving back. They were the most accurate aggregator using their current methods. They have figured it out.

For future poll numbers ..

All of the polls for PA the day(s) before the election had Trump and Harris more or less dead even.
48% to 48% with an "uncertainty" of 3%.

Now if one assumes that all of the national and local polls for PA are skewed toward the Democratic candidate, then one can add 3% to Trump's 48% to give 51%

The true poll numbers would then be 51% Trump and 46% Harris.

The final was 50% Trump 49% Harris

Take home lesson... For accurate polling numbers always add 2-3% for the Republican candidate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

doubledog said:

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For future poll numbers ..

All of the polls for PA the day(s) before the election had Trump and Harris more or less dead even.
48% to 48% with an "uncertainty" of 3%.

Now if one assumes that all of the national and local polls for PA are skewed toward the Democratic candidate, then one can add 3% to Trump's 48% to give 51%

The true poll numbers would then be 51% Trump and 46% Harris.

The final was 50% Trump 49% Harris

Take home lesson... For accurate polling numbers always add 2-3% for the Republican candidate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

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In four years when Vance is running they'll all say they made the correct adjustments and to totally trust them this time.

Prosperdick said:

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doubledog said:

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For future poll numbers ..

All of the polls for PA the day(s) before the election had Trump and Harris more or less dead even.
48% to 48% with an "uncertainty" of 3%.

Now if one assumes that all of the national and local polls for PA are skewed toward the Democratic candidate, then one can add 3% to Trump's 48% to give 51%

The true poll numbers would then be 51% Trump and 46% Harris.

The final was 50% Trump 49% Harris

Take home lesson... For accurate polling numbers always add 2-3% for the Republican candidate.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

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In four years when Vance is running they'll all say they made the correct adjustments and to totally trust them this time.

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This is important to remember and this post should be saved. It happens every time, but the polls get lots of interest and cause some to stress. The polling consistently skews left just like the MSM.