Muh Polls

364,004 Views | 3345 Replies | Last: 24 min ago by Who?mikejones!
BadMoonRisin
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The Guy Who Organized Ballot Counting Says Election Results Will Not Match Polling.

Quote:

That said, at the end of the ballot harvesting operation in the key state counties for Democrats, there are precinct workers who are then tasked with counting those ballots.

The number of ballots needed to change the outcome of the election, is essentially the determining factor in how many ballots the precinct workers in the key districts count.

Most of the regional precinct workers in the key counties that change the elections, are affiliated with and originate from the AMEThe African Methodist Episcopal (AME) church, has precinct level ballot counting election operations (poll workers) in the key counties [Fulton (GA), Wayne (Mich), Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (PA), Clark (NV), Maricopa (AZ), Dane (WI), etc.] The ballot counting doesn't need to happen all over the state, just at the key urban county level.

The DNC operation (Obama/BLM network) concentrates heavily on the ballot harvesting. However, when they turn those ballots over to the county level precinct workers, that's where the AME church network and South Carolina Representative James Clyburn come into play.

The DNC no longer focuses on controlling the Secretary of State or Attorney General approach. With the George Soros machine running the District Attorney level angle the democrats only need to concern themselves with the precinct level poll worker support. Clyburn's AME network is protected by the willfully blind George Soros DA's. It's a one-hand washing the other-hand proposition.

Quote:

QUESTION: I know you get asked this question a lot, but I'm going to ask it as well. And that is this series of polls this year that show Donald Trump doing a whole lot better with Black voters than he did in 2020.

The May New York Times/Siena swing state poll showed 23 percent Black support for Trump. He won 8 percent according to the exit polls in 2020.

And then the Wall Street Journal broke down an interesting gender divide in April. This was a national poll, and it showed that 30 percent of Black men said they'll vote for Trump versus 12 percent in 2020 and 11 percent of Black women versus 6 percent in 2020.

This is a big shift. I don't think you can deny that these polls are showing something. What do you think that Biden needs to do to turn this around?

JAMES CLYBURN I don't think he needs to do anything but what he's doing. I think Joe Biden is doing exactly what he needs to do to win reelection. Something is amiss with the polling. I call your attention to the recent polls in Maryland. The African American woman [Angela Alsobrooks] running for the United States Senate nomination the Sunday before the election, one poll had her five down, the other poll had her seven down and she won by 13. How do you explain that? That's 20 points.

Clyburn is saying the quiet part out loud, but the media pretend they don't know what it means. Essentially, the AME networked county level "ballot counters" successfully ran the election operation and lifted Angela Alsobrooks to victory. Voting did not matter, counting ballots did.

JAMES CLYBURN cont… "So I have no idea what's going on with polling these days. But I do know this, the polls did not have [Jon] Ossoff, nor [Raphael] Warnock winning Georgia. And then both of them won. The polls did not have [Lucy] McBath getting 87 percent in that district. But she did.

Anybody who believes that Donald Trump will get 30 percent of the Black male vote or 12 percent of the Black female vote I got a bridge down there on Johns Island I'll sell you." (LINK)

Clyburn knows his network can essentially run the ballot counting operation without fear or concern because George Soros has put the DA's in their pocket. And, with the media cooperating, if anyone raises an objection or notices something sketchy, the ballot gathering group have the RACE CARD to immediately play.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/06/16/the-guy-who-organizes-ballot-counting-says-election-results-will-not-match-polling/

Looks like they are planning on giving FJB another record-setting number of votes -- cementing him, once again, as the most popular Presidential candidate of all-time...even if his approval polls are ****, he sucks at everything he does, and people are starting to make fun of how demented he is.

Quote:

Democrats have the U.S. Dept of Justice.
Democrats have the United States postal service.
Democrats have the key state Secretaries of State.
Democrats have the United States US Attorney General.
Democrats have key state Attorneys General.
Democrats have county level District Attorneys.
Democrats have BLM foot soldiers (Ballot Harvesters).
Democrats have AME precinct workers (Ballot Counters).
Democrats have illegal alien names for ballots.

Democrats do not have voters.

It's almost like living in a communist country. Almost.
BigRobSA
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ts5641 said:


Go with Vivek.


I'll vote for Trump if he chooses someone with a good record. I won't vote for him if he chooses Vivek.

He needs to get elected to a much lesser office, govern conservatively and then run for the big chair. He talks a decent game but it's all talk.
oh no
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Vivek says Javier Milei type things. He's the future of America first governance and I'd be happy if he's chosen to be one heartbeat away right now. Put him in charge of the bureaucracy slashing immediately as VP and he'll have "experience" when his time comes.
notex
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BigRobSA said:

ts5641 said:


Go with Vivek.


I'll vote for Trump if he chooses someone with a good record. I won't vote for him if he chooses Vivek.

He needs to get elected to a much lesser office, govern conservatively and then run for the big chair. He talks a decent game but it's all talk.
Like…Dan Quayle? George HW Bush? Sarah Palin? It's an absurdity to claim Trump needs to pick someone from the swamp to support against the CCP-Dem coalition of senility.

Anyway, the market seems to think it's Bergum/Scott/Rubio/Carson etc:

Science Denier
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I'm hoping for Scott.
notex
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Probably the most likely at this point, imho. That would lock Trump in for the win I believe, though his being married now to a white woman might tick off some black females (though that wasn't a problem on the flip side for Kamala).

Hungry Ojos
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While that all sounds awesome, there is no way these polling number will carry over to actual voting. Young black voters may be pissed off right now (rightfully so), but they are never leaving the democrats. Just won't do it.
Drahknor03
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Nothing ever happens, until it does.
normalhorn
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Hungry Ojos said:

While that all sounds awesome, there is no way these polling number will carry over to actual voting. Young black voters may be pissed off right now (rightfully so), but they are never leaving the democrats. Just won't do it.


Do you hear that crack in the air? Dems are getting those whips warmed up again. They can't let the black voters flee the plantation.
Nope, by hook or crook, the AA voting block will come crashing back to the Dem slave masters, like they always have. And then they'll whine and moan and stick their hands out for payola for being good sheep, while acting like they can't figure out why the country doesn't allow them to improve their own lot.
If you think Trump is actually going to be allowed to garner the black vote, well, look to your left, look to your right, and then admit that you're the idiot in the crowd
...take it easy on me, I'm a normal horn
BigRobSA
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Drahknor03 said:

Nothing ever happens, until it does.

Polls are idiotic in the first place. They're not scientific, not even remotely.

It's easy to poll, I used to get calls when I lived in Iowa...all the freaking time, since it's first....it's not as easy to vote.

Funnily, amongst my black co-workers (they're in the under 50 crowd mostly), they see the condescension of the Democrats and how ****ty the economy is. When all is said and done with the social bull****, they also have families to feed like the rest of us.

If blacks DO vote more for Trump, it's not some mandate from that bloc for anything other than "help me afford to live".



***ETA: they hate "African-American", too. When I ask about that and point out they're not immigrants ( it's an immigration status) , they all laugh and say that it sounds stupid. Call them "black" if you need a descriptor. "African-American " makes one sound like a moron. Elon is an actual "African-American". ***
Barnyard96
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Waiting for it to go back to normal.

The hubris.
LMCane
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someone claiming George HW Bush did not have enough experience to be the President compared to Ramascamy.

we have just hit peak insanity

Bush served from 1942 to 1944 as a torpedo bomber pilot on aircraft carriers in the Pacific during World War II, flying some 58 combat missions; he was shot down by the Japanese in 1944. For his service he won the Distinguished Flying Cross.

In 1959 he became active in the Republican Party in Houston.

After losing a campaign for the U.S. Senate to Democrat Ralph Yarborough in 1964,

Bush was elected in 1966 to a safely Republican seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

He gave up the seat in 1970 to run again for the Senate.

He was defeated again, this time by Democrat Lloyd Bentsen, Jr.

Shortly after his defeat, Bush was appointed by Pres. Richard M. Nixon to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (UN; 197172).

In 1973, as the Watergate Scandal was erupting, Bush became chairman of the Republican National Committee.

He was the head of the Central Intelligence Agency.
FireAg
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BigRobSA said:

Drahknor03 said:

Nothing ever happens, until it does.

Polls are idiotic in the first place. They're not scientific, not even remotely.


The RCP polling average accurately conveyed that DeSantis didn't stand a snowball's chance in hell against Trump in the primaries...and they conveyed that well before anyone went to caucus in Iowa...
oh no
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FireAg said:

BigRobSA said:

Drahknor03 said:

Nothing ever happens, until it does.

Polls are idiotic in the first place. They're not scientific, not even remotely.


The RCP polling average accurately conveyed that DeSantis didn't stand a snowball's chance in hell against Trump in the primaries...and they conveyed that well before anyone went to caucus in Iowa...
they don't take into account mass-mailed ballots and well-funded harvesting operations.

polling registered likely voters can be a good predictor if samples are high and broad enough. but if mass-mailed ballots that cannot be traced to registered voters remain in play, those only go one way and polling humans becomes an irrelevant predictor of counted ballots. We've already seen this story play out before. Unless AZ, GA, MI, WI, PA, etc. did anything in regards to election integrity, it matters not what polls indicate.
Jabin
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LMCane said:

someone claiming George HW Bush did not have enough experience to be the President compared to Ramascamy.

we have just hit peak insanity

Bush served from 1942 to 1944 as a torpedo bomber pilot on aircraft carriers in the Pacific during World War II, flying some 58 combat missions; he was shot down by the Japanese in 1944. For his service he won the Distinguished Flying Cross.

In 1959 he became active in the Republican Party in Houston.

After losing a campaign for the U.S. Senate to Democrat Ralph Yarborough in 1964,

Bush was elected in 1966 to a safely Republican seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

He gave up the seat in 1970 to run again for the Senate.

He was defeated again, this time by Democrat Lloyd Bentsen, Jr.

Shortly after his defeat, Bush was appointed by Pres. Richard M. Nixon to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (UN; 197172).

In 1973, as the Watergate Scandal was erupting, Bush became chairman of the Republican National Committee.

He was the head of the Central Intelligence Agency.
He was also VP under Reagan for 8 years.
notex
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Jabin said:

LMCane said:

someone claiming George HW Bush did not have enough experience to be the President compared to Ramascamy.

we have just hit peak insanity

Bush served from 1942 to 1944 as a torpedo bomber pilot on aircraft carriers in the Pacific during World War II, flying some 58 combat missions; he was shot down by the Japanese in 1944. For his service he won the Distinguished Flying Cross.

In 1959 he became active in the Republican Party in Houston.

After losing a campaign for the U.S. Senate to Democrat Ralph Yarborough in 1964,

Bush was elected in 1966 to a safely Republican seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

He gave up the seat in 1970 to run again for the Senate.

He was defeated again, this time by Democrat Lloyd Bentsen, Jr.

Shortly after his defeat, Bush was appointed by Pres. Richard M. Nixon to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (UN; 197172).

In 1973, as the Watergate Scandal was erupting, Bush became chairman of the Republican National Committee.

He was the head of the Central Intelligence Agency.
He was also VP under Reagan for 8 years.
Saying he was qualified for losing many elections, being a veteran, UN Ambassador, and being CIA director after the CIA-directed coup against Nixon (note several of the burglars were on CIA salaries), is funny as a 'got ya.'



The GOP needs to go 180 degrees against whatever modern-day version of the Bush family is, for VP.
will25u
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will25u
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dreyOO
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Hell yea! Any rational person knows we shouldn't be overloading our system when we have so many actual citizens struggling under this regime.
Rapier108
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"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
LMCane
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really hoping that the "lack" of polls is more about the leftist pollsters and media not wanting to release bad results showing Biden losing

because in 2020 there were about 43,876 polls released showing Trump losing.
Rockdoc
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Rapier108 said:



Don't you worry. Trump will take care of it!
Drahknor03
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Statistical noise. Fox News headline doesn't mention Trump leading overall.

SA68AG
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Drahknor03 said:

Statistical noise. Fox News headline doesn't mention Trump leading overall.


Not sure why you would call it political noise.

Most pre-trial polls showed that a significant number of independents would not support Trump if he were convicted and that appears to be happening.

IMO this makes Trumps VP choice absolutely critical.
He needs someone who will bring some of those independents back.
BadMoonRisin
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damn, Biden looks like Mason Verger from Hannibal in that picture.

Drahknor03
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I said statistical noise. A poll showing a 1% movement in Trump's overall favor but a 15% decrease in independent support is statistical noise. All it really does is confirm that the race is really close.
BoDog
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The fact that it is close tells me all I need to know about the future our this country....
nortex97
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Every election this century has been 'close' at a national vote-total, perhaps setting aside Obama's 1st one (which should be discounted for various reasons, imho). If places like NM are looking like this according to good/real pollsters, it's a…big deal.

GenericAggie
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New Mexico? You're kidding, right?
agsalaska
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Drahknor03 said:

I said statistical noise. A poll showing a 1% movement in Trump's overall favor but a 15% decrease in independent support is statistical noise. All it really does is confirm that the race is really close.


Good post.
nortex97
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Nope. It's going to be very competitive thanks to the open border/invasion scheme of Biden. The last Dem poll (PPP) had Biden up 7, and the senate race is only a 3 point game right now.

This one is funny too (and related to NM/hispanics); Dem's race coalition falling apart:

Quote:

The multi-ethnic Obama coalition once seemed unbreakable. With overwhelming support from non-white voters, demographic trends pointed to an emergingDemocratic majority. But then, after the 2016 election, a surprising thing happened: the rainbow coalition began to dissolve.

Today, the Democratic Party can no longer count on unified minority support. Democrats now hold a (historically) modest 47-point advantage among black voters, the lowest Gallup has ever recorded. Among Hispanics, the advantage is just 12 points. Then there's the nation's fastest growing minority group: Asians. In April, Pew reported that just four in ten approved of President Biden, down from nearly six in ten in 2022.

Observers have offered varying explanations for these trends. One is that minorities are more likely to feel the effects of progressives' soft-on-crime policies. Another is inflation, currently the top concern of Hispanic voters. And then one has to account for the celebrity charisma of Donald Trump, whoas evidenced by his recent rally in the south Bronxappeals to non-white, blue-collar voters in a way that no other GOP standard bearer has.

However, a more systemic factor is also driving minorities' political evolution: the diminishing value of using racial appeals in a multi-ethnic democracy premised on equality of opportunity over equality of outcomes. Put simply, it becomes practically impossible to hold a diverse coalition of minority groups together while embracing policies that benefit some of those groups at the expense of others.
nortex97
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Or how about Iowa? Is Trump+18 indicative this 'once battleground' state among others in the Midwest are trending red? To me the amazing thing is that Moreno is still 5 down against Brown over in Ohio, on the other hand.
Waffledynamics
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These polls are way, way too close. Democrats live in a complete fantasy world. This should not be a close election.
SA68AG
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https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may

Biden takes lead 50-48 in latest Fox poll
Barnyard96
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Trump leads the average.
 
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