Muh Polls

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texagbeliever
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In reply to agsalaska • 11:55p, 6/12/24
agsalaska said:
To be clear, these are two of the worst candidates of all time.
Hold on just a second, Trump is an incredible candidate. He just has the cards stacked against him.

1. Twitter/FB/Insta censorship. Twitter blocked Trump from posting.
2. Google/Bing mining customer voting preferences and targeting democrat voters for GOTV messaging
3. Youtube/TikTok for video conservative censorship
4. Crossfire hurricane creating a fake crime to smear Trump
5. Jan 6th is an insurrection. Another fake crime to smear Trump
6. Weaponizing of courts against Trump: Georgia Rico case, NY Hush money case, NY lied on loan application
7. MSM bias.
8. Academia/Institutions limiting behavior (conservatives self-censoring / subject to excessive thought manipulation efforts)
9. Launching of a bio weapon in covid. Then every truth was presented as a lie by science. Covid came from China, not from a lab, ivermectin is horse paste not for humans, the "vaccine" is a vaccine, 14 days to slow the spread
10. Even with most of the above it took 5 swing states to all stop counting and wait 3-6 hours to then magically discover votes for Biden to flip them blue. You'd have to have your head buried 10 feet in the sand to not at least admit the statistical probability of such a thing happening is 0.

Is that list long enough for you? The fact that Trump is polling even/ahead when the scales are stacked so far against him should clearly indicate he is a great candidate. Just not playing a fair game.
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agsalaska
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In reply to texagbeliever • 12:12a, 6/13/24
AG
WIth all due respect I didn't mean to derail one of the better threads on F16 with a side conversation so instead of ten points(which would be easy) I will leave you with the obvious 1.

Why Trump is a terrible candidate:

1. He lost the 2020 election.


Also, a lot of the reasons you gave are exactly why he is a terrible candidate.

We can debate this more on another thread. I am going to leave it alone here and wait on more polling data.


Have a great evening, or morning.





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FJB24
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5:15a, 6/13/24


Marist: Trump +2 in Penn.
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notex
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5:50a, 6/13/24
AG
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tk111
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In reply to notex • 6:48a, 6/13/24
AG
notex said:
Well this is obviously only counting real votes...
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ts5641
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In reply to notex • 6:49a, 6/13/24
notex said:
Let it be so!
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agsalaska
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In reply to notex • 11:25a, 6/13/24
AG
notex said:


This should start happening everywhere.

Someone pointed out on another thread yesterday that Nate Silver still had it basically even. His simulation la ran it like 529-467-3. Or something like that. But as these models pay more and more attention to the polling and less towards historical data it will pull hard for Trump.

If Trump has these leads in November it will be 95-5.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to agsalaska • 11:41a, 6/13/24
AG
Trump was ahead in betting odds when I went to bed election night.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 12:09p, 6/13/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
Trump was ahead in betting odds when I went to bed election night.


That's not at all true, at least not the day before the election It was very clear that Biden was well ahead and barring any major miss in the polling he was going to win. I'm fact the polling slightly undercounted Trumps support and it was a little bit closer than expected.

Have no idea what the betting websites were doing. But anyone following the data knew Biden was almost certainly going to win.
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Joes
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In reply to agsalaska • 12:31p, 6/13/24
agsalaska said:
Barnyard96 said:
Trump was ahead in betting odds when I went to bed election night.


That's not at all true, at least not the day before the election It was very clear that Biden was well ahead and barring any major miss in the polling he was going to win. I'm fact the polling slightly undercounted Trumps support and it was a little bit closer than expected.

Have no idea what the betting websites were doing. But anyone following the data knew Biden was almost certainly going to win.
Yep. Anybody who wasn't delusional knew Trump was going to lose heading into that election. Biden led all the polls from about May to the end, peaking with a ten-point lead in the middle of that summer. This whole idea that it was a shock that he lost was made up afterwards.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Joes • 2:08p, 6/13/24
AG
Joes said:
agsalaska said:
Barnyard96 said:
Trump was ahead in betting odds when I went to bed election night.


That's not at all true, at least not the day before the election It was very clear that Biden was well ahead and barring any major miss in the polling he was going to win. I'm fact the polling slightly undercounted Trumps support and it was a little bit closer than expected.

Have no idea what the betting websites were doing. But anyone following the data knew Biden was almost certainly going to win.
Yep. Anybody who wasn't delusional knew Trump was going to lose heading into that election. Biden led all the polls from about May to the end, peaking with a ten-point lead in the middle of that summer. This whole idea that it was a shock that he lost was made up afterwards.

I think the "delusion" was the known underreporting of Trump's support in 2016 and the difference between Trump's large rallies versus Biden's basement campaign.
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LMCane
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2:30p, 6/13/24
Do Trump supporters who are nearly cocky of victory at this point realize the election will come down to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania?

even if Trump is able to actually do better than 2020 and win Arizona and Georgia.

he still needs to win of the Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania.

how have those state elections been going for Republicans the last 8 years?
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oh no
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In reply to LMCane • 2:59p, 6/13/24
AG
LMCane said:

he still needs to win of the Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania.

how have those state elections been going for Republicans the last 8 years?



Well, here's how the "most secure election ever" went in Michigan last time:



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will25u
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10:52p, 6/13/24
Country seems to be trending right... At least for the states that report.

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will25u
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10:59p, 6/13/24
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to agsalaska • 11:51p, 6/13/24

[Any more disrespectful posts like this and you'll earn a ban. You can make your point without it -- Staff]
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Mr President Elect
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In reply to agsalaska • 11:53p, 6/13/24
AG
agsalaska said:
Rockdoc said:
One of the things most troubling to me is that the FBI desperately wants Trump to lose. They are scared to death of him and we all know what they're capable of. In my opinion they're gonna pull something before long.


Yea man that's pretty far fetched. Makes about as much sense as the 'muh fraud' people.

Stop reading that stuff man. It's a bunch of nonsense.
I mean, they did go to all the social media companies right before the laptop came out last election and warned them of some kind of misinformation that was about to drop. Then looked the other way when the CIA signed off on allowing a bunch of retired agents to claim it was Russian msinfo, all while knowing it was legit. It doesn't have to be something major, but they have already shown they don't mind running interference.
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Mr President Elect
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In reply to agsalaska • 12:02a, 6/14/24
AG
agsalaska said:
To be clear, these are two of the worst candidates of all time.
I feel like this is something spewed by the left and the "Romney Republicans", but Trump is nowhere near the worst republican candidate of all time. Yeah, he has baggage, mainly that he is so hated so much by the left and a sect of the right.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to will25u • 12:11a, 6/14/24
will25u said:


He has probably spent more than that. And it's not improving his numbers much at all

Plus all the gaslighting. Media cover. Huge ground game. Twice the money.

RNC needs to get their ground game implemented asap. Spend more money on that than tv.

Trump and RNC have raised over 400 million in 3 weeks. I fully expect that number to be over 600 million by end of June. His sentencing date is July 11th. I fully expect Trump and RNC to quickly have another huge cash influx

Number could top a billion by end of August.

Hope they're using over half of it on ground game, get out to vote effort, ballot harvesting etc

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oh no
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1:32a, 6/14/24
AG
Should be worrisome that, without campaigning and with zero enthusiasm and no show "rallies", Biden won so many fewer counties than Obama or Hillary or any winner ever did yet still shattered vote records. Certain captured / controlled major cities in key states can just keep finding and counting mailed in ballots that can't be audited or traced to voters until desired results are achieved.

Regime justices can throw out challenges on standing. Regime media can say it was the most secure election ever without basis and the low iq useful idiots brainwashed into supporting the regime simply believe it without question because their team "won".

Our country cannot last much longer with this system we have here.

No one should believe these polls.

Lastly, no matter what polls say, the trick up the regime's sleeve is a candidate swap. Once they pay off the Biden family for Joe to step aside to the nursing home, they'll have carte blanche to cheat as much as needed again because they already know they can and the new excuse is enthusiasm without evidence for the new candidate.
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techno-ag
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 3:50a, 6/14/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
will25u said:


He has probably spent more than that. And it's not improving his numbers much at all

Plus all the gaslighting. Media cover. Huge ground game. Twice the money.

RNC needs to get their ground game implemented asap. Spend more money on that than tv.

Trump and RNC have raised over 400 million in 3 weeks. I fully expect that number to be over 600 million by end of June. His sentencing date is July 11th. I fully expect Trump and RNC to quickly have another huge cash influx

Number could top a billion by end of August.

Hope they're using over half of it on ground game, get out to vote effort, ballot harvesting etc

Nobody watches traditional TV anymore. It's all streaming.
Buy a man eat fish, he day, teach fish man, to a lifetime.

- Joe Biden

I think that, to be very honest with you, I do believe that we should have rightly believed, but we certainly believe that certain issues are just settled.

- Kamala Harris
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FJB24
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5:19a, 6/14/24
Trump leading with young voters? Seriously?
Breitbart:
Quote:
Trump is within two points of Biden among young voters between the ages 18-29, a recent New York Times/Siena Poll found. The vote has not been that close since George W. Bush defeated global warming activist Al Gore in 2000.

Another poll, conducted by Quinnipiac, found Trump leading with registered voters between 18-34 by one point. In 2016, two-time failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won that demographic by 19 percentage points. President Joe Biden won the demographic in 2020 by 24 percentage points, according to CNN exit polling.

Trump's inroads with young voters appear to turn on a couple of factors:
[ol]
  • Biden's economy crushed young voters with high housing costs and overall price spikes by about 20 percent just as they graduated college, intended to buy their first home, or wanted to start a family.
  • Trump is an advocate of cryptocurrency, an area to which the Biden administration has been hostile. Trump boosted NFTs, promised to end regulatory hostility, and endorsed U.S.-mined Bitcoin.
  • Healthcare, Biden's number one issue, is of less concern for young voters than the oldest voting bloc, which appears more sympathetic to his political pitches than younger voters. In eight sets of data encompassing the nexus of "cross-pressures," Trump's immigration policy sabotages and undermines the attraction of Biden's most popular issue and thus essentially diminishes Biden's political appeal, according to Ruy Teixera, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
    • [/ol]
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    ts5641
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    In reply to FJB24 • 6:47a, 6/14/24
    FJB24 said:
    Trump leading with young voters? Seriously?
    Breitbart:
    Quote:
    Trump is within two points of Biden among young voters between the ages 18-29, a recent New York Times/Siena Poll found. The vote has not been that close since George W. Bush defeated global warming activist Al Gore in 2000.

    Another poll, conducted by Quinnipiac, found Trump leading with registered voters between 18-34 by one point. In 2016, two-time failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won that demographic by 19 percentage points. President Joe Biden won the demographic in 2020 by 24 percentage points, according to CNN exit polling.

    Trump's inroads with young voters appear to turn on a couple of factors:
    [ol]
  • Biden's economy crushed young voters with high housing costs and overall price spikes by about 20 percent just as they graduated college, intended to buy their first home, or wanted to start a family.
  • Trump is an advocate of cryptocurrency, an area to which the Biden administration has been hostile. Trump boosted NFTs, promised to end regulatory hostility, and endorsed U.S.-mined Bitcoin.
  • Healthcare, Biden's number one issue, is of less concern for young voters than the oldest voting bloc, which appears more sympathetic to his political pitches than younger voters. In eight sets of data encompassing the nexus of "cross-pressures," Trump's immigration policy sabotages and undermines the attraction of Biden's most popular issue and thus essentially diminishes Biden's political appeal, according to Ruy Teixera, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
    • [/ol]
    The numbers in poll after poll have been stunning. Still feel like we're being set up for something.
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    FireAg
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    In reply to oh no • 6:54a, 6/14/24
    AG
    oh no said:
    the trick up the regime's sleeve is a candidate swap. .
    This is the one thing that I think can still beat Trump...a candidate swap...

    But those thinking it will be Newsom are dead wrong...the shine is off that turd...

    Although she continues to say she's not interested, I still think Michelle O would be hard to beat...and I think Hakeem Jefferies could also be in the mix... Could they make a deal to have Dr. Jill replace her invalid spouse? That wouldn't shock me either...she'd get the sympathy vote and be very hard for Trump to attack...
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    agsalaska
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    In reply to ts5641 • 7:28a, 6/14/24
    AG
    ts5641 said:
    FJB24 said:
    Trump leading with young voters? Seriously?
    Breitbart:
    Quote:
    Trump is within two points of Biden among young voters between the ages 18-29, a recent New York Times/Siena Poll found. The vote has not been that close since George W. Bush defeated global warming activist Al Gore in 2000.

    Another poll, conducted by Quinnipiac, found Trump leading with registered voters between 18-34 by one point. In 2016, two-time failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won that demographic by 19 percentage points. President Joe Biden won the demographic in 2020 by 24 percentage points, according to CNN exit polling.

    Trump's inroads with young voters appear to turn on a couple of factors:
    [ol]
  • Biden's economy crushed young voters with high housing costs and overall price spikes by about 20 percent just as they graduated college, intended to buy their first home, or wanted to start a family.
  • Trump is an advocate of cryptocurrency, an area to which the Biden administration has been hostile. Trump boosted NFTs, promised to end regulatory hostility, and endorsed U.S.-mined Bitcoin.
  • Healthcare, Biden's number one issue, is of less concern for young voters than the oldest voting bloc, which appears more sympathetic to his political pitches than younger voters. In eight sets of data encompassing the nexus of "cross-pressures," Trump's immigration policy sabotages and undermines the attraction of Biden's most popular issue and thus essentially diminishes Biden's political appeal, according to Ruy Teixera, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
    • [/ol]
    The numbers in poll after poll have been stunning. Still feel like we're being set up for something.
    Couple of thoughts on that.

    First the young vote flipping R or being halved is not new. It happened in 2000. We have just been conditioned to believe that every 21 year old is some palestinian supporting LBGQ... flag waiving beta boy socialist Dem and thats just not the case. Most are trying to make it on their own.

    That being said, inflation annoys me. It crushes them. It is so much harder to get ahead of your paycheck than it was even five years ago that someone, anyone, is going to pay politically for that. And Biden, being the idiot that he is, decided to actually name it after himself, Bidenomics(another one of the dumbest things I have ever seen)

    There have always been things that never made any sense yet they still happen over and over again. Jews voting for Dems would be the most obvious current example. But the young vote flipping makes more sense to me than anything else.

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    e=mc2
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    In reply to ts5641 • 7:55a, 6/14/24
    AG
    ts5641 said:
    FJB24 said:
    Trump leading with young voters? Seriously?
    Breitbart:
    Quote:
    Trump is within two points of Biden among young voters between the ages 18-29, a recent New York Times/Siena Poll found. The vote has not been that close since George W. Bush defeated global warming activist Al Gore in 2000.

    Another poll, conducted by Quinnipiac, found Trump leading with registered voters between 18-34 by one point. In 2016, two-time failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won that demographic by 19 percentage points. President Joe Biden won the demographic in 2020 by 24 percentage points, according to CNN exit polling.

    Trump's inroads with young voters appear to turn on a couple of factors:
    [ol]
  • Biden's economy crushed young voters with high housing costs and overall price spikes by about 20 percent just as they graduated college, intended to buy their first home, or wanted to start a family.
  • Trump is an advocate of cryptocurrency, an area to which the Biden administration has been hostile. Trump boosted NFTs, promised to end regulatory hostility, and endorsed U.S.-mined Bitcoin.
  • Healthcare, Biden's number one issue, is of less concern for young voters than the oldest voting bloc, which appears more sympathetic to his political pitches than younger voters. In eight sets of data encompassing the nexus of "cross-pressures," Trump's immigration policy sabotages and undermines the attraction of Biden's most popular issue and thus essentially diminishes Biden's political appeal, according to Ruy Teixera, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
    • [/ol]
    The numbers in poll after poll have been stunning. Still feel like we're being set up for something.


    Democrats are the freak show party. Normal people aren't down with their sickness.
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    notex
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    7:55a, 6/14/24
    AG


    All time high is a good thing, right?
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    Rockdoc
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    8:00a, 6/14/24
    AG
    All I know is these polling companies are in the business to make money. I've learned my lesson about trusting any of them.
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    LMCane
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    In reply to Barnyard96 • 8:05a, 6/14/24
    FAKE NEWS unless you went to bed at 2200 EST
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    LMCane
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    In reply to notex • 8:07a, 6/14/24
    You didn't even review the actual electoral college map you posted- did you?

    because IT SHOWS TRUMP LOSING THE ELECTION.

    click on the link you provided, and the actual state by state electoral college has Biden winning the election!
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    dreyOO
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    8:07a, 6/14/24
    Any polling yet on the idiotic Karen's in the suburbs that couldn't stand Trump and helped **** our country the last four years?

    I'd bet that if Trump is flipping young voters, it's a very heavy split favoring the men vs women.

    We need the guys to start influencing their girlfriends or wives to think long term and practically. Not with emotions. Is that possible?
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    Barnyard96
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    In reply to LMCane • 8:16a, 6/14/24
    AG
    LMCane said:
    FAKE NEWS unless you went to bed at 2200 EST

    Plumbers in Atlanta on call.
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    agsalaska
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    In reply to notex • 8:24a, 6/14/24
    AG
    notex said:


    All time high is a good thing, right?


    To be clear that is a betting market, not a polling aggregator. Not saying it is more or less worth looking at. Just for clarity.
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    BigRobSA
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    In reply to ts5641 • 8:32a, 6/14/24
    ts5641 said:
    The numbers in poll after poll have been stunning. Still feel like we're being set up for something.

    One of the many issues with polling, other than it being unscientific bull**** devoid of actual value, is that it's easy and convenient to poll someone. They don't have to do anything, just answer questions.

    As to actually voting, that takes at least a modicum of effort.
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    FireAg
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    In reply to LMCane • 8:41a, 6/14/24
    AG
    LMCane said:
    You didn't even review the actual electoral college map you posted- did you?

    because IT SHOWS TRUMP LOSING THE ELECTION.

    click on the link you provided, and the actual state by state electoral college has Biden winning the election!
    The most popular outcome on that site is GOP winning the EC by 65-104 EVs...

    https://polymarket.com/event/electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election?tid=1718372250862

    Not sure what you are referring to...
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