The RCP EC map with toss ups has Trump up 219-202:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/toss-up/electoral-college

The RCP EC "no toss up" map has Trump Winning 312-226:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

Another thing to note is that nobody is polling New Mexico yet. Or at least nobody is releasing polls for them. The last poll done in New Mexico was around Sept last year. Biden was also up in Nevada in Sept of last year. New Mexico has GOP candidates winning statewide offices not that long ago in New Mexico. Pete Domenicis very wealthy daughter is also running for the Senate in New Mexico on law, order, and immigration. The money she spends to try and win a state the size of NM as a GOP candidate might end up helping Trump there.

New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the country. If Trumps message is resonating with Latinos in Nevada it might resonate in New Mexico. If trump can produce turnout there and win NM and NV(long shots sure) and take back AZ and GA. He does not need PA, MI, or WI. That would be a game changer for the GOP and the Dems.

The way these maps are shaping up on President and Senate side, the Dems are going to absolutely need all the extra money they have raised vs the GOP. It's a lot more expensive to be trying to turn markets your direction than to defend a positive position.

Will be interesting to see how this develops as we get to Labor Day.

When looking at national polls: I find the region breakdown a critical stat. Here is that breakdown from Civiqs (funded by daily Kos) link to details

Trump & Biden were tied at 45%.
Here are the region breakdowns

________South____West___MidWest___NorthEast
Trump: ___49%____46%____48%______33%
Biden:____41%____44%____45%______54%

Regions for those who don't know:
NorthEast = PA, NJ & everything to the north east. So PA is the only swing state in that bunch.
South: MD, DC and then everything south of KY, WV & OK.
West: NM, WY, MT, & CO (and everything west).
MidWest: Everything else.

So Trump is ahead in every region but the NorthEast. When you consider California, Oregon & Washington and their relative population size the West being +2% Trump is very interesting for NV, NM & AZ.
South: doesn't really tell much about the swing states like GA or perhaps VA. Too much deep red blood to dominate.
MidWest: Harder to tell. IL will lean democrat but the eastern states are deep red. Ohio is probably not really a swing state anymore either.

policywonk98 said:

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Another thing to note is that nobody is polling New Mexico yet. Or at least nobody is releasing polls for them. The last poll done in New Mexico was around Sept last year. Biden was also up in Nevada in Sept of last year. New Mexico has GOP candidates winning statewide offices not that long ago in New Mexico. Pete Domenicis very wealthy daughter is also running for the Senate in New Mexico on law, order, and immigration. The money she spends to try and win a state the size of NM as a GOP candidate might end up helping Trump there.

New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the country. If Trumps message is resonating with Latinos in Nevada it might resonate in New Mexico. If trump can produce turnout there and win NM and NV(long shots sure) and take back AZ and GA. He does not need PA, MI, or WI. That would be a game changer for the GOP and the Dems.

The way these maps are shaping up on President and Senate side, the Dems are going to absolutely need all the extra money they have raised vs the GOP. It's a lot more expensive to be trying to turn markets your direction than to defend a positive position.

Will be interesting to see how this develops as we get to Labor Day.

---

this may be why Burgum is the VP candidate as he has a ton of money to flood into the RNC

I think Youngkin is also wealthy and major players in Wall Street would back him, and it would put Virginia into play for real.

I would actually be excited if Youngkin is the pick

but likely it will be boring as Pence - Tim Scott.

Tagging to follow

LMCane said:

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policywonk98 said:

---

Another thing to note is that nobody is polling New Mexico yet. Or at least nobody is releasing polls for them. The last poll done in New Mexico was around Sept last year. Biden was also up in Nevada in Sept of last year. New Mexico has GOP candidates winning statewide offices not that long ago in New Mexico. Pete Domenicis very wealthy daughter is also running for the Senate in New Mexico on law, order, and immigration. The money she spends to try and win a state the size of NM as a GOP candidate might end up helping Trump there.

New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the country. If Trumps message is resonating with Latinos in Nevada it might resonate in New Mexico. If trump can produce turnout there and win NM and NV(long shots sure) and take back AZ and GA. He does not need PA, MI, or WI. That would be a game changer for the GOP and the Dems.

The way these maps are shaping up on President and Senate side, the Dems are going to absolutely need all the extra money they have raised vs the GOP. It's a lot more expensive to be trying to turn markets your direction than to defend a positive position.

Will be interesting to see how this develops as we get to Labor Day.

---

this may be why Burgum is the VP candidate as he has a ton of money to flood into the RNC

I think Youngkin is also wealthy and major players in Wall Street would back him, and it would put Virginia into play for real.

I would actually be excited if Youngkin is the pick

but likely it will be boring as Pence - Tim Scott.

---

Burgum is not who Trump needs. He needs someone with experience with policy and knows Washington. Cotton and Rubio both bring that. Both would be good picks. Vance is also another that's a finalist.

I'd like Rubio the most of those four then cotton. Both younger. Vast experience. Can be trusted. Both fighters. Rubio would bring some youth and woman votes. Probably some Hispanics.

Oh and Vance is not a safe senate seat, we need him in the senate. Want Younkin to stay governor of Virginia for awhile, try to pull a DeSantis

No to Vance. Rubio had his opportunity window close on becoming a conservative presidential candidate down the road already. Trump will do better, hopefully, than anyone on the Senate Foreign Affairs or Intelligence committee's, all of whom are controlled by the intelligence agencies.

Lake within 1?

📊 ARIZONA GE: @Rasmussen_Poll

🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Biden: 40%
🟪 Other: 9%
---
🟥 Trump: 41%
🟦 Biden: 37%
🟨 RFK Jr: 10%
🟨 West: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
⬜ Undecided: 7%
—
Senate
🟦 Gallego: 44%
🟥 Lake: 41%
🟪 Other: 5%
⬜ Undecided: 10%
---
🟦 Gallego: 40%
🟥 Lake: 39%
🟩 Hernandez:… pic.twitter.com/gFdUnAZCJN

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 14, 2024

2023NCAggies said:

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LMCane said:

---

policywonk98 said:

---

Another thing to note is that nobody is polling New Mexico yet. Or at least nobody is releasing polls for them. The last poll done in New Mexico was around Sept last year. Biden was also up in Nevada in Sept of last year. New Mexico has GOP candidates winning statewide offices not that long ago in New Mexico. Pete Domenicis very wealthy daughter is also running for the Senate in New Mexico on law, order, and immigration. The money she spends to try and win a state the size of NM as a GOP candidate might end up helping Trump there.

New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the country. If Trumps message is resonating with Latinos in Nevada it might resonate in New Mexico. If trump can produce turnout there and win NM and NV(long shots sure) and take back AZ and GA. He does not need PA, MI, or WI. That would be a game changer for the GOP and the Dems.

The way these maps are shaping up on President and Senate side, the Dems are going to absolutely need all the extra money they have raised vs the GOP. It's a lot more expensive to be trying to turn markets your direction than to defend a positive position.

Will be interesting to see how this develops as we get to Labor Day.

---

this may be why Burgum is the VP candidate as he has a ton of money to flood into the RNC

I think Youngkin is also wealthy and major players in Wall Street would back him, and it would put Virginia into play for real.

I would actually be excited if Youngkin is the pick

but likely it will be boring as Pence - Tim Scott.

---

Burgum is not who Trump needs. He needs someone with experience with policy and knows Washington. Cotton and Rubio both bring that. Both would be good picks. Vance is also another that's a finalist.

I'd like Rubio the most of those four then cotton. Both younger. Vast experience. Can be trusted. Both fighters. Rubio would bring some youth and woman votes. Probably some Hispanics.

Oh and Vance is not a safe senate seat, we need him in the senate. Want Younkin to stay governor of Virginia for awhile, try to pull a DeSantis

---

Agree with all of this. Keep GOP senators in place, Virginia and ND governors are not needle-movers. Rubio? please.
Go with Vivek.

The Guy Who Organized Ballot Counting Says Election Results Will Not Match Polling.

Quote:

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That said, at the end of the ballot harvesting operation in the key state counties for Democrats, there are precinct workers who are then tasked with counting those ballots.

The number of ballots needed to change the outcome of the election, is essentially the determining factor in how many ballots the precinct workers in the key districts count.

Most of the regional precinct workers in the key counties that change the elections, are affiliated with and originate from the AMEThe African Methodist Episcopal (AME) church, has precinct level ballot counting election operations (poll workers) in the key counties [Fulton (GA), Wayne (Mich), Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (PA), Clark (NV), Maricopa (AZ), Dane (WI), etc.] The ballot counting doesn't need to happen all over the state, just at the key urban county level.

The DNC operation (Obama/BLM network) concentrates heavily on the ballot harvesting. However, when they turn those ballots over to the county level precinct workers, that's where the AME church network and South Carolina Representative James Clyburn come into play.

The DNC no longer focuses on controlling the Secretary of State or Attorney General approach. With the George Soros machine running the District Attorney level angle the democrats only need to concern themselves with the precinct level poll worker support. Clyburn's AME network is protected by the willfully blind George Soros DA's. It's a one-hand washing the other-hand proposition.

---

Quote:

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QUESTION: I know you get asked this question a lot, but I'm going to ask it as well. And that is this series of polls this year that show Donald Trump doing a whole lot better with Black voters than he did in 2020.

The May New York Times/Siena swing state poll showed 23 percent Black support for Trump. He won 8 percent according to the exit polls in 2020.

And then the Wall Street Journal broke down an interesting gender divide in April. This was a national poll, and it showed that 30 percent of Black men said they'll vote for Trump versus 12 percent in 2020 and 11 percent of Black women versus 6 percent in 2020.

This is a big shift. I don't think you can deny that these polls are showing something. What do you think that Biden needs to do to turn this around?

JAMES CLYBURN I don't think he needs to do anything but what he's doing. I think Joe Biden is doing exactly what he needs to do to win reelection. Something is amiss with the polling. I call your attention to the recent polls in Maryland. The African American woman [Angela Alsobrooks] running for the United States Senate nomination the Sunday before the election, one poll had her five down, the other poll had her seven down and she won by 13. How do you explain that? That's 20 points.

Clyburn is saying the quiet part out loud, but the media pretend they don't know what it means. Essentially, the AME networked county level "ballot counters" successfully ran the election operation and lifted Angela Alsobrooks to victory. Voting did not matter, counting ballots did.

JAMES CLYBURN cont… "So I have no idea what's going on with polling these days. But I do know this, the polls did not have [Jon] Ossoff, nor [Raphael] Warnock winning Georgia. And then both of them won. The polls did not have [Lucy] McBath getting 87 percent in that district. But she did.

Anybody who believes that Donald Trump will get 30 percent of the Black male vote or 12 percent of the Black female vote I got a bridge down there on Johns Island I'll sell you." (LINK)

Clyburn knows his network can essentially run the ballot counting operation without fear or concern because George Soros has put the DA's in their pocket. And, with the media cooperating, if anyone raises an objection or notices something sketchy, the ballot gathering group have the RACE CARD to immediately play.

---

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/06/16/the-guy-who-organizes-ballot-counting-says-election-results-will-not-match-polling/

Looks like they are planning on giving FJB another record-setting number of votes -- cementing him, once again, as the most popular Presidential candidate of all-time...even if his approval polls are ****, he sucks at everything he does, and people are starting to make fun of how demented he is.

Quote:

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Democrats have the U.S. Dept of Justice.
Democrats have the United States postal service.
Democrats have the key state Secretaries of State.
Democrats have the United States US Attorney General.
Democrats have key state Attorneys General.
Democrats have county level District Attorneys.
Democrats have BLM foot soldiers (Ballot Harvesters).
Democrats have AME precinct workers (Ballot Counters).
Democrats have illegal alien names for ballots.

Democrats do not have voters.

---

It's almost like living in a communist country. Almost.

ts5641 said:

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Go with Vivek.

---

I'll vote for Trump if he chooses someone with a good record. I won't vote for him if he chooses Vivek.

He needs to get elected to a much lesser office, govern conservatively and then run for the big chair. He talks a decent game but it's all talk.

Vivek says Javier Milei type things. He's the future of America first governance and I'd be happy if he's chosen to be one heartbeat away right now. Put him in charge of the bureaucracy slashing immediately as VP and he'll have "experience" when his time comes.

BigRobSA said:

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ts5641 said:

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Go with Vivek.

---

I'll vote for Trump if he chooses someone with a good record. I won't vote for him if he chooses Vivek.

He needs to get elected to a much lesser office, govern conservatively and then run for the big chair. He talks a decent game but it's all talk.

---

Like…Dan Quayle? George HW Bush? Sarah Palin? It's an absurdity to claim Trump needs to pick someone from the swamp to support against the CCP-Dem coalition of senility.

Anyway, the market seems to think it's Bergum/Scott/Rubio/Carson etc:

Trump vice president pick - Odds by @Polymarket

Burgum 20%
Scott 17%
Vance 14%
Carson 14%
Rubio 10%https://t.co/X95VbfTk9R pic.twitter.com/4DaQTK6pYQ

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 16, 2024

I'm hoping for Scott.

Probably the most likely at this point, imho. That would lock Trump in for the win I believe, though his being married now to a white woman might tick off some black females (though that wasn't a problem on the flip side for Kamala).

‘I'm Like Speechless': CNN's Harry Enten Says Trump 'Careening Towards A Historic Performance' With Black Voters pic.twitter.com/aEKh3WPIDG

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) June 17, 2024

While that all sounds awesome, there is no way these polling number will carry over to actual voting. Young black voters may be pissed off right now (rightfully so), but they are never leaving the democrats. Just won't do it.

Nothing ever happens, until it does.

Hungry Ojos said:

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While that all sounds awesome, there is no way these polling number will carry over to actual voting. Young black voters may be pissed off right now (rightfully so), but they are never leaving the democrats. Just won't do it.

---

Do you hear that crack in the air? Dems are getting those whips warmed up again. They can't let the black voters flee the plantation.
Nope, by hook or crook, the AA voting block will come crashing back to the Dem slave masters, like they always have. And then they'll whine and moan and stick their hands out for payola for being good sheep, while acting like they can't figure out why the country doesn't allow them to improve their own lot.
If you think Trump is actually going to be allowed to garner the black vote, well, look to your left, look to your right, and then admit that you're the idiot in the crowd

Drahknor03 said:

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Nothing ever happens, until it does.

---

Polls are idiotic in the first place. They're not scientific, not even remotely.

It's easy to poll, I used to get calls when I lived in Iowa...all the freaking time, since it's first....it's not as easy to vote.

Funnily, amongst my black co-workers (they're in the under 50 crowd mostly), they see the condescension of the Democrats and how ****ty the economy is. When all is said and done with the social bull****, they also have families to feed like the rest of us.

If blacks DO vote more for Trump, it's not some mandate from that bloc for anything other than "help me afford to live".



***ETA: they hate "African-American", too. When I ask about that and point out they're not immigrants ( it's an immigration status) , they all laugh and say that it sounds stupid. Call them "black" if you need a descriptor. "African-American " makes one sound like a moron. Elon is an actual "African-American". ***

Waiting for it to go back to normal.

The hubris.

someone claiming George HW Bush did not have enough experience to be the President compared to Ramascamy.

we have just hit peak insanity

Bush served from 1942 to 1944 as a torpedo bomber pilot on aircraft carriers in the Pacific during World War II, flying some 58 combat missions; he was shot down by the Japanese in 1944. For his service he won the Distinguished Flying Cross.

In 1959 he became active in the Republican Party in Houston.

After losing a campaign for the U.S. Senate to Democrat Ralph Yarborough in 1964,

Bush was elected in 1966 to a safely Republican seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

He gave up the seat in 1970 to run again for the Senate.

He was defeated again, this time by Democrat Lloyd Bentsen, Jr.

Shortly after his defeat, Bush was appointed by Pres. Richard M. Nixon to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (UN; 197172).

In 1973, as the Watergate Scandal was erupting, Bush became chairman of the Republican National Committee.

He was the head of the Central Intelligence Agency.

BigRobSA said:

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Drahknor03 said:

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Nothing ever happens, until it does.

---

Polls are idiotic in the first place. They're not scientific, not even remotely.

---

The RCP polling average accurately conveyed that DeSantis didn't stand a snowball's chance in hell against Trump in the primaries...and they conveyed that well before anyone went to caucus in Iowa...

FireAg said:

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BigRobSA said:

---

Drahknor03 said:

---

Nothing ever happens, until it does.

---

Polls are idiotic in the first place. They're not scientific, not even remotely.

---

The RCP polling average accurately conveyed that DeSantis didn't stand a snowball's chance in hell against Trump in the primaries...and they conveyed that well before anyone went to caucus in Iowa...

---

they don't take into account mass-mailed ballots and well-funded harvesting operations.

polling registered likely voters can be a good predictor if samples are high and broad enough. but if mass-mailed ballots that cannot be traced to registered voters remain in play, those only go one way and polling humans becomes an irrelevant predictor of counted ballots. We've already seen this story play out before. Unless AZ, GA, MI, WI, PA, etc. did anything in regards to election integrity, it matters not what polls indicate.

LMCane said:

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someone claiming George HW Bush did not have enough experience to be the President compared to Ramascamy.

we have just hit peak insanity

Bush served from 1942 to 1944 as a torpedo bomber pilot on aircraft carriers in the Pacific during World War II, flying some 58 combat missions; he was shot down by the Japanese in 1944. For his service he won the Distinguished Flying Cross.

In 1959 he became active in the Republican Party in Houston.

After losing a campaign for the U.S. Senate to Democrat Ralph Yarborough in 1964,

Bush was elected in 1966 to a safely Republican seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

He gave up the seat in 1970 to run again for the Senate.

He was defeated again, this time by Democrat Lloyd Bentsen, Jr.

Shortly after his defeat, Bush was appointed by Pres. Richard M. Nixon to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (UN; 197172).

In 1973, as the Watergate Scandal was erupting, Bush became chairman of the Republican National Committee.

He was the head of the Central Intelligence Agency.

---

He was also VP under Reagan for 8 years.

Jabin said:

---

LMCane said:

---

someone claiming George HW Bush did not have enough experience to be the President compared to Ramascamy.

we have just hit peak insanity

Bush served from 1942 to 1944 as a torpedo bomber pilot on aircraft carriers in the Pacific during World War II, flying some 58 combat missions; he was shot down by the Japanese in 1944. For his service he won the Distinguished Flying Cross.

In 1959 he became active in the Republican Party in Houston.

After losing a campaign for the U.S. Senate to Democrat Ralph Yarborough in 1964,

Bush was elected in 1966 to a safely Republican seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

He gave up the seat in 1970 to run again for the Senate.

He was defeated again, this time by Democrat Lloyd Bentsen, Jr.

Shortly after his defeat, Bush was appointed by Pres. Richard M. Nixon to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations (UN; 197172).

In 1973, as the Watergate Scandal was erupting, Bush became chairman of the Republican National Committee.

He was the head of the Central Intelligence Agency.

---

He was also VP under Reagan for 8 years.

---

Saying he was qualified for losing many elections, being a veteran, UN Ambassador, and being CIA director after the CIA-directed coup against Nixon (note several of the burglars were on CIA salaries), is funny as a 'got ya.'

Richard Nixon did an extremely long and detailed series of interviews in 1983 with his former aide Frank Gannon, who also became a TV producer. All, or most, appear to be on YouTube -- they're fascinating. Here is Nixon addressing whether there was a CIA conspiracy against him pic.twitter.com/B0NDJThPig

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) June 8, 2024

The GOP needs to go 180 degrees against whatever modern-day version of the Bush family is, for VP.

One of the primary reasons Iowa has trended to the right so quickly can be found in its voter registration stats.

In November 2020, Democrats had 689,001 active voters, and the state registration party lean was only R+1. Today, Democrats have just 460,960 active voters, and the… https://t.co/NuiI3AtpL8

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) June 17, 2024

In 2020, Trump won Iowa by +8 points.

Now, Iowa’s best pollster shows him up +18 in the state – which is bad news for Biden in more competitive Midwestern states, like Wisconsin and Michigan.

👉🏻 https://t.co/SmqLoDR2sg https://t.co/gPVkOy3Sop

— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) June 17, 2024

Mass deportation is now popular.

A majority of registered voters favor “a new national program to deport all undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. illegally,” 62-38%.

👀 A MAJORITY OF HISPANICS favor mass deportation, 53-47%.

Per @CBSNews / @YouGovAmerica poll: pic.twitter.com/EsUaEsE4im

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) June 16, 2024

Hell yea! Any rational person knows we shouldn't be overloading our system when we have so many actual citizens struggling under this regime.

Biden makes major gains with crucial voting group ahead of 1st debate with Trump: poll https://t.co/hJCuOIL8n4

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 18, 2024

really hoping that the "lack" of polls is more about the leftist pollsters and media not wanting to release bad results showing Biden losing

because in 2020 there were about 43,876 polls released showing Trump losing.

Rapier108 said:

---

Biden makes major gains with crucial voting group ahead of 1st debate with Trump: poll https://t.co/hJCuOIL8n4

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 18, 2024

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Don't you worry. Trump will take care of it!

Statistical noise. Fox News headline doesn't mention Trump leading overall.

New NPR/PBS/Marist national poll:

2-Way: TIED at 49
5-Way: Trump 42, Biden 41, RFK Jr 11

Biden approval 43https://t.co/EsORvH86HR

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 18, 2024

Drahknor03 said:

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Statistical noise. Fox News headline doesn't mention Trump leading overall.

New NPR/PBS/Marist national poll:

2-Way: TIED at 49
5-Way: Trump 42, Biden 41, RFK Jr 11

Biden approval 43https://t.co/EsORvH86HR

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 18, 2024

---

Not sure why you would call it political noise.

Most pre-trial polls showed that a significant number of independents would not support Trump if he were convicted and that appears to be happening.

IMO this makes Trumps VP choice absolutely critical.
He needs someone who will bring some of those independents back.

damn, Biden looks like Mason Verger from Hannibal in that picture.

I said statistical noise. A poll showing a 1% movement in Trump's overall favor but a 15% decrease in independent support is statistical noise. All it really does is confirm that the race is really close.

The fact that it is close tells me all I need to know about the future our this country....