I like that guy a lot. He writes in a stream of consciousness style that a lot of people don't like but he cracks me up. He just nerds out on this stuff.Barnyard96 said:
I guess Nate doesn't read Newsweek.
Muh Polls
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Last: 3 mo ago by ts5641
He has a decent reputation. Im just taking a shot at Newsweak
I know
If Joe is failing, he should be forced to run.aggiehawg said:Joe Biden just hit a new, all-time LOW approval rating of 37.4% on 538's average.
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) June 10, 2024
Now, Nate Silver is openly asking if the "threshold" has been reached where Joe Biden cannot recover and should be replaced.
Wild. pic.twitter.com/XMNLaDOesr
The Democrats chose this. You buy the ticket, you take the ****ing ride.
Just like the regime usurped Bernie against their voters' will four years ago to install a more controllable empty suit #democracy(tm), they can simply chose someone else to install at their convention this year that their voters didn't vote for in their primaries again.
It would be Newsom or Mike Obama. Harris is too universally hated
Biden won the primaries. Replacement is a pipe dream. lol you gonna lose.
since you are quoting Nate Silver
Nate Silver also claims that
ANY Republican candidate other than Donald Trump would be beating Biden by +7
Nate Silver also claims that
ANY Republican candidate other than Donald Trump would be beating Biden by +7
LMCane said:
since you are quoting Nate Silver
Nate Silver also claims that
ANY Republican candidate other than Donald Trump would be beating Biden by +7
But no other candidate made it did they.
LOL, yea. OK. I believe that dude.LMCane said:
since you are quoting Nate Silver
Nate Silver also claims that
ANY Republican candidate other than Donald Trump would be beating Biden by +7
It will be OK.
Rockdoc said:LMCane said:
since you are quoting Nate Silver
Nate Silver also claims that
ANY Republican candidate other than Donald Trump would be beating Biden by +7
But no other candidate made it did they.
This.
Anyone who thinks that Trump will win in November because his share of the vote is "too big to rig" is a moron.
— Emerald Robinson βοΈ (@EmeraldRobinson) June 11, 2024
There's 200,000 fake votes on 9 different kinds of paper from the 2020 election in Arizona to remind you: nothing is too big to rig.
Looks like I was correct. Republicans have a huge shot to flip New Mexico senate seat. Granted it is her polling firm but it looks winnable, she has a big name recognition in New Mexico.
I hope Trump is sending money to these candidates. Michigan, Ohio, Montana, Nevada look to be the best chances to flip. Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Maryland and New Mexico deserve attention too. Need to see more polling for the senate. Cannot believe we have to squeeze our ass cheeks watching the Montana race, shouldn't even be a contest given the last 4 years. We need no money in West Virginia to flip.
Now New Jersey is in contention with two Dems running
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/new-mexico/
I hope Trump is sending money to these candidates. Michigan, Ohio, Montana, Nevada look to be the best chances to flip. Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Maryland and New Mexico deserve attention too. Need to see more polling for the senate. Cannot believe we have to squeeze our ass cheeks watching the Montana race, shouldn't even be a contest given the last 4 years. We need no money in West Virginia to flip.
Now New Jersey is in contention with two Dems running
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/new-mexico/
https://thefederalist.com/2024/06/12/ignore-the-polls-republicans-have-a-major-voter-turnout-problem/Quote:
The Federalist: Ignore The Polls. Republicans Have A Major Voter Turnout Problem
If you read nothing but posts from conservative influencers on X, you'd be convinced that Donald Trump has already won the 2024 election.
The source of this sensationalized optimism comes from public polling data, which shows the former president with leads in key battleground states he needs to win this November. Some surveys also seemingly indicate that traditionally "blue states" like Virginia and Minnesota are in play.
With numbers like these and Biden's approval rating sinking faster than Rachel Levine in a swimming pool, there's no way Trump can lose, or so the conventional thinking goes.
While it's certainly possible the polls are accurate, the outcome of recent elections should give conservatives reason to pump the brakes on celebrating before any ballots have been cast. Case in point: A special election held in Ohio's 6th Congressional District on Tuesday.
The matchup between Democrat Michael Kripchak and Republican Michael Rulli wasn't expected to be a close race. According to the Associated Press, former GOP Rep. Bill Johnson who represented the district until his resignation earlier this year "won his last four elections by more than 30 percentage points." Trump similarly won the district by roughly 30 points during the 2020 contest.
While Rulli defeated Kripchak in Tuesday's matchup and expanded Republicans' thin House majority, the election was much closer than originally predicted. Preliminary results indicate Rulli won the race by 9.4 points a more than 20-point shift in Democrats favor.
But maybe last night's election was a fluke. After all, voter turnout was seemingly low and will likely be higher during this fall's presidential contest.
While such reasoning is certainly viable, it doesn't take into account the growing list of recent elections in which Democrats have widely outperformed expectations at the ballot box.
Take the 2022 midterms, for example. As The Blaze's Daniel Horowitz observed in November, the majority of polls predicting the outcome of the country's biggest gubernatorial and Senate races overestimated Republicans' chances of victory.
In Nevada's Senate race, for instance, the RealClearPolitics polling average showed Republican Adam Laxalt beating Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto by 3.4 points. Cortez Masto ended up winning the election by 0.9 points. Similar trends were also seen in Michigan's gubernatorial race, in which Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer defeated Republican Tudor Dixon by 10.6 points despite the RCP average projecting the former to win by only 1 point.
These alarming trends continued into 2023. A FiveThirtyEight analysis published in September found that Democrats not only won the majority of special elections between January and September 2023, but that they over-performed their projected margins. Even in the smattering of races Republicans won, Democrats managed to surpass expectations.
I know the standard MO from Trump supporters is to blame it 100% on fraud no matter what race, state, or location, but that is just a cheap cop out. Of course it will be the convenient excuse when Trump loses in November and we know that because of how many Trump supporters post about it daily.
Democrats spend hundreds of millions in the GOTV efforts. Republicans spend virtually nothing compared to that. Add to that the drag on every single race that is Trump, and it makes it very hard for Republicans to win.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Yea the ignorance of the ' muh fraud' people is at times infuriating. The problem with it, other than being mostly horse****, is that it is a disincentive to go vote.
Allowing the 'muh fraud' idiots to run unchecked for the last four years is one of the dumber things I have ever witnessed in politics. And to make it applicable to this thread I am not sure if the current polling is capturing it.
That all being said, things were different both times Trump was on the ballot. In both 2016 and 2020 polling undercounted Trump support. So not sure how applicable their examples are.
Allowing the 'muh fraud' idiots to run unchecked for the last four years is one of the dumber things I have ever witnessed in politics. And to make it applicable to this thread I am not sure if the current polling is capturing it.
That all being said, things were different both times Trump was on the ballot. In both 2016 and 2020 polling undercounted Trump support. So not sure how applicable their examples are.
There are polls based on who people are going to vote for, then there are polls based on enthusiasm and excitement. Yougov
In the poll linked:
Extremely + Very Enthusiastic vote for Trump: 71%, Biden: 57%.
25% of Biden indicated voters are not enthusiastic. While only 13% Trump.
Biden is not a generic candidate. He is quite possibly one of the worst candidates to run for president of all time.
In the poll linked:
Extremely + Very Enthusiastic vote for Trump: 71%, Biden: 57%.
25% of Biden indicated voters are not enthusiastic. While only 13% Trump.
Biden is not a generic candidate. He is quite possibly one of the worst candidates to run for president of all time.
To be clear, these are two of the worst candidates of all time.
Polls...
As trustworthy as a morning fart after a night of cheap beer, Mule-Stomper shots, and greasy nachos.
P.S. NASA wants to know the proportions for maximum thrust capabilities.
As trustworthy as a morning fart after a night of cheap beer, Mule-Stomper shots, and greasy nachos.
P.S. NASA wants to know the proportions for maximum thrust capabilities.
They really are. I voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but wish he wasn't the nominee this time. So much baggage. Any (R) not named Trump could demolish Biden in this election.agsalaska said:
To be clear, these are two of the worst candidates of all time.
But we are where we are...
One thing Trump might have going for him this time -- but I don't have data to prove it -- is the anti-Trump vote probably isn't as strong as 2020. Back then, he was in office and the Trump haters wanted him OUT. Now he's on the outside looking in, and I suspect some of the haters aren't near as wound up as before.
Conversely, the anti-Biden vote is much stronger now than 2020. He has a record that's viewed poorly by most Americans.
It's not hard to see Trump slipping by Biden in November. Also not hard to see Trump blowing it with his big mouth, arrogance, and stupidity. I hope he keeps a lid on it and somehow manages to fire Biden.
One of the things most troubling to me is that the FBI desperately wants Trump to lose. They are scared to death of him and we all know what they're capable of. In my opinion they're gonna pull something before long.
Like what? It's not as though they could be part of a current grand jury proceeding. There is none. Yeah, they don't like him. And yeah, they are corrupt. Sorry FBI guys. I want to like you people.Rockdoc said:
One of the things most troubling to me is that the FBI desperately wants Trump to lose. They are scared to death of him and we all know what they're capable of. In my opinion they're gonna pull something before long.
Rockdoc said:
One of the things most troubling to me is that the FBI desperately wants Trump to lose. They are scared to death of him and we all know what they're capable of. In my opinion they're gonna pull something before long.
Yea man that's pretty far fetched. Makes about as much sense as the 'muh fraud' people.
Stop reading that stuff man. It's a bunch of nonsense.
Yup. The GOP GOTV effort is going to be pathetic. Trump wants to spend money on poll watchers rather than GOTV operations. Poll watching isn't going to do much good when the Dems are getting mail-in votes.Rapier108 said:https://thefederalist.com/2024/06/12/ignore-the-polls-republicans-have-a-major-voter-turnout-problem/Quote:
The Federalist: Ignore The Polls. Republicans Have A Major Voter Turnout Problem
If you read nothing but posts from conservative influencers on X, you'd be convinced that Donald Trump has already won the 2024 election.
The source of this sensationalized optimism comes from public polling data, which shows the former president with leads in key battleground states he needs to win this November. Some surveys also seemingly indicate that traditionally "blue states" like Virginia and Minnesota are in play.
With numbers like these and Biden's approval rating sinking faster than Rachel Levine in a swimming pool, there's no way Trump can lose, or so the conventional thinking goes.
While it's certainly possible the polls are accurate, the outcome of recent elections should give conservatives reason to pump the brakes on celebrating before any ballots have been cast. Case in point: A special election held in Ohio's 6th Congressional District on Tuesday.
The matchup between Democrat Michael Kripchak and Republican Michael Rulli wasn't expected to be a close race. According to the Associated Press, former GOP Rep. Bill Johnson who represented the district until his resignation earlier this year "won his last four elections by more than 30 percentage points." Trump similarly won the district by roughly 30 points during the 2020 contest.
While Rulli defeated Kripchak in Tuesday's matchup and expanded Republicans' thin House majority, the election was much closer than originally predicted. Preliminary results indicate Rulli won the race by 9.4 points a more than 20-point shift in Democrats favor.
But maybe last night's election was a fluke. After all, voter turnout was seemingly low and will likely be higher during this fall's presidential contest.
While such reasoning is certainly viable, it doesn't take into account the growing list of recent elections in which Democrats have widely outperformed expectations at the ballot box.
Take the 2022 midterms, for example. As The Blaze's Daniel Horowitz observed in November, the majority of polls predicting the outcome of the country's biggest gubernatorial and Senate races overestimated Republicans' chances of victory.
In Nevada's Senate race, for instance, the RealClearPolitics polling average showed Republican Adam Laxalt beating Democrat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto by 3.4 points. Cortez Masto ended up winning the election by 0.9 points. Similar trends were also seen in Michigan's gubernatorial race, in which Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer defeated Republican Tudor Dixon by 10.6 points despite the RCP average projecting the former to win by only 1 point.
These alarming trends continued into 2023. A FiveThirtyEight analysis published in September found that Democrats not only won the majority of special elections between January and September 2023, but that they over-performed their projected margins. Even in the smattering of races Republicans won, Democrats managed to surpass expectations.
I know the standard MO from Trump supporters is to blame it 100% on fraud no matter what race, state, or location, but that is just a cheap cop out. Of course it will be the convenient excuse when Trump loses in November and we know that because of how many Trump supporters post about it daily.
Democrats spend hundreds of millions in the GOTV efforts. Republicans spend virtually nothing compared to that. Add to that the drag on every single race that is Trump, and it makes it very hard for Republicans to win.
agsalaska said:Rockdoc said:
One of the things most troubling to me is that the FBI desperately wants Trump to lose. They are scared to death of him and we all know what they're capable of. In my opinion they're gonna pull something before long.
Yea man that's pretty far fetched. Makes about as much sense as the 'muh fraud' people.
Stop reading that stuff man. It's a bunch of nonsense.
Didn't read anything. Saw it on tv
agsalaska said:
To be clear, these are two of the worst candidates of all time.
And they both broke records in 2020
Barnyard96 said:agsalaska said:
To be clear, these are two of the worst candidates of all time.
And they both broke records in 2020
That's a fair point. But at the time Biden did not have a record to defend and Trump had not lost.
agsalaska said:Barnyard96 said:agsalaska said:
To be clear, these are two of the worst candidates of all time.
And they both broke records in 2020
That's a fair point. But at the time Biden did not have a record to defend and Trump had not lost.
There's more on the ballot than the two candidates. A lot more.
Hold on just a second, Trump is an incredible candidate. He just has the cards stacked against him.agsalaska said:
To be clear, these are two of the worst candidates of all time.
1. Twitter/FB/Insta censorship. Twitter blocked Trump from posting.
2. Google/Bing mining customer voting preferences and targeting democrat voters for GOTV messaging
3. Youtube/TikTok for video conservative censorship
4. Crossfire hurricane creating a fake crime to smear Trump
5. Jan 6th is an insurrection. Another fake crime to smear Trump
6. Weaponizing of courts against Trump: Georgia Rico case, NY Hush money case, NY lied on loan application
7. MSM bias.
8. Academia/Institutions limiting behavior (conservatives self-censoring / subject to excessive thought manipulation efforts)
9. Launching of a bio weapon in covid. Then every truth was presented as a lie by science. Covid came from China, not from a lab, ivermectin is horse paste not for humans, the "vaccine" is a vaccine, 14 days to slow the spread
10. Even with most of the above it took 5 swing states to all stop counting and wait 3-6 hours to then magically discover votes for Biden to flip them blue. You'd have to have your head buried 10 feet in the sand to not at least admit the statistical probability of such a thing happening is 0.
Is that list long enough for you? The fact that Trump is polling even/ahead when the scales are stacked so far against him should clearly indicate he is a great candidate. Just not playing a fair game.
WIth all due respect I didn't mean to derail one of the better threads on F16 with a side conversation so instead of ten points(which would be easy) I will leave you with the obvious 1.
Why Trump is a terrible candidate:
1. He lost the 2020 election.
Also, a lot of the reasons you gave are exactly why he is a terrible candidate.
We can debate this more on another thread. I am going to leave it alone here and wait on more polling data.
Have a great evening, or morning.
Why Trump is a terrible candidate:
1. He lost the 2020 election.
Also, a lot of the reasons you gave are exactly why he is a terrible candidate.
We can debate this more on another thread. I am going to leave it alone here and wait on more polling data.
Have a great evening, or morning.
Poll: Donald Trump Opens Up 8-Point Lead in Arizona https://t.co/rj54YZKogl
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) June 13, 2024
Marist: Trump +2 in Penn.
πΊπ² 2024 GE: The Economist Forecast
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 12, 2024
Chances of winning
π₯ Trump: 65%
π¦ Biden: 35%
β
Projected vote margin in swing states
β’ Georgia: Trump +4
β’ Arizona: Trump +3
β’ Pennsylvania: Trump +2
β’ Wisconsin: Trump +2
β’ Nevada: Trump +2
β’ Michigan: Trump +1
β@Polymarket odds
π₯β¦ pic.twitter.com/aSmIKMnE74
Well this is obviously only counting real votes...notex said:πΊπ² 2024 GE: The Economist Forecast
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 12, 2024
Chances of winning
π₯ Trump: 65%
π¦ Biden: 35%
β
Projected vote margin in swing states
β’ Georgia: Trump +4
β’ Arizona: Trump +3
β’ Pennsylvania: Trump +2
β’ Wisconsin: Trump +2
β’ Nevada: Trump +2
β’ Michigan: Trump +1
β@Polymarket odds
π₯β¦ pic.twitter.com/aSmIKMnE74
Let it be so!notex said:πΊπ² 2024 GE: The Economist Forecast
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 12, 2024
Chances of winning
π₯ Trump: 65%
π¦ Biden: 35%
β
Projected vote margin in swing states
β’ Georgia: Trump +4
β’ Arizona: Trump +3
β’ Pennsylvania: Trump +2
β’ Wisconsin: Trump +2
β’ Nevada: Trump +2
β’ Michigan: Trump +1
β@Polymarket odds
π₯β¦ pic.twitter.com/aSmIKMnE74
notex said:πΊπ² 2024 GE: The Economist Forecast
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 12, 2024
Chances of winning
π₯ Trump: 65%
π¦ Biden: 35%
β
Projected vote margin in swing states
β’ Georgia: Trump +4
β’ Arizona: Trump +3
β’ Pennsylvania: Trump +2
β’ Wisconsin: Trump +2
β’ Nevada: Trump +2
β’ Michigan: Trump +1
β@Polymarket odds
π₯β¦ pic.twitter.com/aSmIKMnE74
This should start happening everywhere.
Someone pointed out on another thread yesterday that Nate Silver still had it basically even. His simulation la ran it like 529-467-3. Or something like that. But as these models pay more and more attention to the polling and less towards historical data it will pull hard for Trump.
If Trump has these leads in November it will be 95-5.
Trump was ahead in betting odds when I went to bed election night.
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