1980 ALL OVER AGAIN? “The people empathize with Trump and are lining up against Biden.” Read Craig Shirley’s full piece on the parallels between Reagan’s historic victory and the 2024 election: https://t.co/UGM41bVA6L pic.twitter.com/0vpseAiJcj

— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 7, 2024

agsalaska said:

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Quote:

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Clyburn deserves…a lot of scorn imho.

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He sounds like your typical Texags poster.

Polls are wrong. They don't know what they are doing. I don't answer my land line. None of my friends are voting for him. My anecdotal evidence says you are wrong.



I can only think that selective prosecution from a bias DA can only help Trump with black voters. No question.

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"I can't believe Nixon won. I don't know anyone who voted for him."
- Pauline Kael, New Yorker film critic, 1972.

1. The Economy
Some hyperbole here, as expected. The current President invariably gets more credit for good times, and more blame for bad times, than is actually deserved.

Nevertheless, it is not tenable to dispute that Biden's Orwellian "inflation Reduction Act" contributed to inflation.

As for the national debt, no serious person believes that a reversal is possible, absent a global catastrophe akin to WWIII. Trump may want to drive the car off the cliff at 40 MPH rather than 55 MPH, but in the end, wgas???

Paul Krugman asserts that it doesn't matter if we have a debt:GDP ratio of 150-200%, and at this point we better hope he is right, because it is going to happen regardless. The election has nothing to do with this.

2. Foreign Policy / Ukraine War
The worst argument Trump supporters have. Yes, Zelensky and his government are corrupt as hell, but they are fighting for their existence as a nation against an adversary who considers Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltic Republics as his country's property.

Rooting for the orcs is profoundly dumb.

Nonetheless, to my surprise, Trump performed far better on foreign policy than expected and the current situation (a perpetual WWI scenario where kids from both sides keep getting fed to the meat grinder) is hardly optimal.

3. The Border
Yup.

4. Lawfare
Yup.

Conclusion: The A/B Test

The voters have experienced four years of President Trump and four years of President Biden. Trump performed better. He is the President who deserves a second term.
Yup.

In regards to foreign policy, the argument is wars have started under Biden.

Barnyard96 said:

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In regards to foreign policy, the argument is wars have started under Biden.

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That is being overly generous, the actual reasons are far more persuasive:
1. Afghanistan botched withdrawal that resulted in 13 deaths of US servicemen/women that shouldn't have happened. Adding in the billions of military tech handed over to the taliban that China was able to access and learn important military intel off of.
2. Ukraine war: No clear objective for victory. Ukraine is losing even by "holding" on they are on pace to lose enough of their people that they will at best be in a position to need mass immigration to survive post war. Biden urged for no peace deals early on
3. Israel vs Hamas. Biden has shown he is beholden to the fringe left and their pro-Palestine nonsense. Most Americans are not as sympathetic to people who rape women to death and kill babies.

Bonus one that just shows clear political military ineptitude:
Draining of the oil reserves to lower gas prices.

Just dropped a one liner.

How do you all believe these polls? Trump is only +4 in now deep red Fl, but up 5 in NV and AZ. Fool's gold.

Brand new polling in key swing states.

Florida - Trump +4
Arizona - Trump +5
Nevada - Trump +5
Virginia - even

Deep dive into the numbers and also how voters think Trump/Biden do on specific issues: https://t.co/HhKxKiT41X

— Shannon Bream (@ShannonBream) June 6, 2024

Trump +4 in Florida definitely raises eyebrows.

Paul Krugman is a ****ing moron. Anything he says is most likely wrong.

Waffledynamics said:

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Trump +4 in Florida definitely raises eyebrows.

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Florida Is No where near 4 pts lol. The polls are all up big for Trump or close. The common is Trump leads in the majority of them.

I will say the breakdowns are interesting. Trump is pulling a a lot of Democrat voting blocks

The +4 in Florida is really making me question all these polls now.

Why? Trump's 2020 margin there was 3%, so 4% would be an improvement over 2020. Yes, DeSantis rolled +20 in 2022, but he was universally popular among Republicans and completely broke Dems. I bet Trump does better than +4, but I'm not surprised at that result.

Florida

Drahknor03 said:

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Why? Trump's 2020 margin there was 3%, so 4% would be an improvement over 2020. Yes, DeSantis rolled +20 in 2022, but he was universally popular among Republicans and completely broke Dems. I bet Trump does better than +4, but I'm not surprised at that result.

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I was thinking of Desantis's +20 and the recent Republican voter registration majority, which is why +4 seems low to me.

ImSoDumb said:

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How do you all believe these polls? Trump is only +4 in now deep red Fl, but up 5 in NV and AZ. Fool's gold.

Brand new polling in key swing states.

Florida - Trump +4
Arizona - Trump +5
Nevada - Trump +5
Virginia - even

Deep dive into the numbers and also how voters think Trump/Biden do on specific issues: https://t.co/HhKxKiT41X

— Shannon Bream (@ShannonBream) June 6, 2024

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Don't worry about us. We understand how polling works.

Y'all have got to stop looking at single polls…you need to look at AVERAGES like RCP does…

Ellis Wyatt said:

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Paul Krugman is a ****ing moron. Anything he says is most likely wrong

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I do not disagree, but the fact remains: the national debt is ballooning, and will continue to do so regardless of who wins the election.

Trump is Dr. Feelgood: you can "own the libs" for a moment, bur nothing changes.

YokelRidesAgain said:

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Ellis Wyatt said:

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Paul Krugman is a ****ing moron. Anything he says is most likely wrong

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I do not disagree, but the fact remains: the national debt is ballooning, and will continue to do so regardless of who wins the election.

Trump is Dr. Feelgood: you can "own the libs" for a moment, bur nothing changes.

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At least Trump will try to put the brakes on. We know what we get with Biden.

Rockdoc said:

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YokelRidesAgain said:

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Ellis Wyatt said:

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Paul Krugman is a ****ing moron. Anything he says is most likely wrong

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I do not disagree, but the fact remains: the national debt is ballooning, and will continue to do so regardless of who wins the election.

Trump is Dr. Feelgood: you can "own the libs" for a moment, bur nothing changes.

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At least Trump will try to put the brakes on. We know what we get with Biden.

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This is one thing that I completely disagree with. There is little evidence to support the idea that MAGA will be fiscally responsible.

Not trying to derail and probably for a different thread. It that's just not supported by anything.

FireAg said:

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Y'all have got to stop looking at single polls…you need to look at AVERAGES like RCP does…

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Someone posted a trend of polls where Trump is trending down from +13 to +4 in FL.

Not in the RCP…he's +8 in that average currently…

agsalaska said:

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Rockdoc said:

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YokelRidesAgain said:

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Ellis Wyatt said:

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Paul Krugman is a ****ing moron. Anything he says is most likely wrong

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I do not disagree, but the fact remains: the national debt is ballooning, and will continue to do so regardless of who wins the election.

Trump is Dr. Feelgood: you can "own the libs" for a moment, bur nothing changes.

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At least Trump will try to put the brakes on. We know what we get with Biden.

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This is one thing that I completely disagree with. There is little evidence to support the idea that MAGA will be fiscally responsible.

Not trying to derail and probably for a different thread. It that's just not supported by anything.

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Agree to disagree

The only polls that matter are those in six key states that Biden won in 2020 that Trump has a real shot at flipping: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. It's extremely unlikely at this point that any other states will flip from the 2020 results.

Current polling averages have Trump winning Nevada and Georgia handily and Trump carrying a small but consistent lead in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin has gone back and forth and could easily go either way. If Trump does flip Nevada and Georgia, which seems likely as of right now, he only needs one of Michigan or Pennsylvania, or both Wisconsin and Arizona put him over the top.

Oddly enough, Virginia is showing as a tie, but I think the Ds have built in enough advantages for themselves in Virginia that it stays blue regardless.

All that said, a lot can change between now and Election Day.

What do these polls do to account for the 3:00 AM votes. Serious question.

Nothing except make it a far less believable result than it was in 2020…

2020 worked because polling in key states showed Biden with an edge going into Election Day…. If polling shows Trump with an edge in those states going into Election Day, it's harder to sell the cheat as real…if polling shows Trump with the lead, and that lead is beyond the MOE, the the optics of selling the cheat as real are nearly impossible…

Need an army of poll watchers.

In the last 5 days Amber Rose, Dr. Phil, David Sacks, 50 Cent and Russell Brand all publicly endorsed Donald Trump.

5 people from all different walks of life with very different audiences have come out and fully endorsed Trump.

Don’t let the media silence fool you, that is a…

— Insurrection Barbie (@DefiyantlyFree) June 9, 2024

Donald Trump suffers quadruple polling blow https://t.co/hOpE6eSUqB pic.twitter.com/Ct5rwOHXao

— Newsweek (@Newsweek) June 10, 2024

Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???

SwigAg11 said:

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Drahknor03 said:

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Why? Trump's 2020 margin there was 3%, so 4% would be an improvement over 2020. Yes, DeSantis rolled +20 in 2022, but he was universally popular among Republicans and completely broke Dems. I bet Trump does better than +4, but I'm not surprised at that result.

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I was thinking of Desantis's +20 and the recent Republican voter registration majority, which is why +4 seems low to me.

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it is way too low

if Trump only wins Florida by + 4 he is going to lose the election

no way he wins Pennsylvania and Arizona if he can only pull a +4 in Florida.

hopefully he is closer to being up 6 or 7 right now.

Waffledynamics said:

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Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???

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maybe the inflation reduction act government spending just kicked in

Waffledynamics said:

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Donald Trump suffers quadruple polling blow https://t.co/hOpE6eSUqB pic.twitter.com/Ct5rwOHXao

— Newsweek (@Newsweek) June 10, 2024

Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???

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Gas prices are down (thanks to another Biden SPR dump), stock market is staying up, and the media is telling us that new jobs are multiplying faster than a Catholic bunny rabbit.

The sheeple will believe whatever they're told.

Rapier108 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Donald Trump suffers quadruple polling blow https://t.co/hOpE6eSUqB pic.twitter.com/Ct5rwOHXao

— Newsweek (@Newsweek) June 10, 2024

Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???

---

Gas prices are down (thanks to another Biden SPR dump), stock market is staying up, and the media is telling us that new jobs are multiplying faster than a Catholic bunny rabbit.

The sheeple will believe whatever they're told.

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That SPR release has zero to do with gas prices. The release was 1MM barrels of oil. You get ~22MM gallons of gasoline out of that. That is less than 1/15th of the US daily use.

Irish 2.0 said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Donald Trump suffers quadruple polling blow https://t.co/hOpE6eSUqB pic.twitter.com/Ct5rwOHXao

— Newsweek (@Newsweek) June 10, 2024

Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???

---

Gas prices are down (thanks to another Biden SPR dump), stock market is staying up, and the media is telling us that new jobs are multiplying faster than a Catholic bunny rabbit.

The sheeple will believe whatever they're told.

---

That SPR release has zero to do with gas prices. The release was 1MM barrels of oil. You get ~22MM gallons of gasoline out of that. That is less than 1/15th of the US daily use.

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It was 1 million barrels of gasoline, not oil. Also, Iran backing off dropped the price of oil.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/biden-to-release-1-million-barrels-of-gasoline-to-reduce-prices-at-the-pump-ahead-of-july-4.html

The poll was conducted among 2,063 U.S. adults from June 5-7, just days after Trump was found guilty in a New York City court on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to trying to conceal hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election.

Rapier108 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Donald Trump suffers quadruple polling blow https://t.co/hOpE6eSUqB pic.twitter.com/Ct5rwOHXao

— Newsweek (@Newsweek) June 10, 2024

Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???

---

Gas prices are down (thanks to another Biden SPR dump), stock market is staying up, and the media is telling us that new jobs are multiplying faster than a Catholic bunny rabbit.

The sheeple will believe whatever they're told.

---

That SPR release has zero to do with gas prices. The release was 1MM barrels of oil. You get ~22MM gallons of gasoline out of that. That is less than 1/15th of the US daily use.

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It was 1 million barrels of gasoline, not oil. Also, Iran backing off dropped the price of oil.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/biden-to-release-1-million-barrels-of-gasoline-to-reduce-prices-at-the-pump-ahead-of-july-4.html

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Still a fraction of the daily use. So 42MM gallons of gasoline. The US consumption is almost 400MM gallons/day. So it is ~1/9th of a day's use.