Paul Krugman is a ****ing moron. Anything he says is most likely wrong.
Muh Polls
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Last: 13 hrs ago by 2004FIGHTINTXAG
Waffledynamics said:
Trump +4 in Florida definitely raises eyebrows.
Florida Is No where near 4 pts lol. The polls are all up big for Trump or close. The common is Trump leads in the majority of them.
I will say the breakdowns are interesting. Trump is pulling a a lot of Democrat voting blocks
The +4 in Florida is really making me question all these polls now.
Why? Trump's 2020 margin there was 3%, so 4% would be an improvement over 2020. Yes, DeSantis rolled +20 in 2022, but he was universally popular among Republicans and completely broke Dems. I bet Trump does better than +4, but I'm not surprised at that result.
Florida
Drahknor03 said:
Why? Trump's 2020 margin there was 3%, so 4% would be an improvement over 2020. Yes, DeSantis rolled +20 in 2022, but he was universally popular among Republicans and completely broke Dems. I bet Trump does better than +4, but I'm not surprised at that result.
I was thinking of Desantis's +20 and the recent Republican voter registration majority, which is why +4 seems low to me.
ImSoDumb said:
How do you all believe these polls? Trump is only +4 in now deep red Fl, but up 5 in NV and AZ. Fool's gold.Brand new polling in key swing states.
— Shannon Bream (@ShannonBream) June 6, 2024
Florida - Trump +4
Arizona - Trump +5
Nevada - Trump +5
Virginia - even
Deep dive into the numbers and also how voters think Trump/Biden do on specific issues: https://t.co/HhKxKiT41X
Don't worry about us. We understand how polling works.
Y'all have got to stop looking at single polls…you need to look at AVERAGES like RCP does…
I do not disagree, but the fact remains: the national debt is ballooning, and will continue to do so regardless of who wins the election.Ellis Wyatt said:
Paul Krugman is a ****ing moron. Anything he says is most likely wrong
Trump is Dr. Feelgood: you can "own the libs" for a moment, bur nothing changes.
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YokelRidesAgain said:I do not disagree, but the fact remains: the national debt is ballooning, and will continue to do so regardless of who wins the election.Ellis Wyatt said:
Paul Krugman is a ****ing moron. Anything he says is most likely wrong
Trump is Dr. Feelgood: you can "own the libs" for a moment, bur nothing changes.
At least Trump will try to put the brakes on. We know what we get with Biden.
Rockdoc said:YokelRidesAgain said:I do not disagree, but the fact remains: the national debt is ballooning, and will continue to do so regardless of who wins the election.Ellis Wyatt said:
Paul Krugman is a ****ing moron. Anything he says is most likely wrong
Trump is Dr. Feelgood: you can "own the libs" for a moment, bur nothing changes.
At least Trump will try to put the brakes on. We know what we get with Biden.
This is one thing that I completely disagree with. There is little evidence to support the idea that MAGA will be fiscally responsible.
Not trying to derail and probably for a different thread. It that's just not supported by anything.
Someone posted a trend of polls where Trump is trending down from +13 to +4 in FL.FireAg said:
Y'all have got to stop looking at single polls…you need to look at AVERAGES like RCP does…
Not in the RCP…he's +8 in that average currently…
agsalaska said:Rockdoc said:YokelRidesAgain said:I do not disagree, but the fact remains: the national debt is ballooning, and will continue to do so regardless of who wins the election.Ellis Wyatt said:
Paul Krugman is a ****ing moron. Anything he says is most likely wrong
Trump is Dr. Feelgood: you can "own the libs" for a moment, bur nothing changes.
At least Trump will try to put the brakes on. We know what we get with Biden.
This is one thing that I completely disagree with. There is little evidence to support the idea that MAGA will be fiscally responsible.
Not trying to derail and probably for a different thread. It that's just not supported by anything.
Agree to disagree
The only polls that matter are those in six key states that Biden won in 2020 that Trump has a real shot at flipping: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. It's extremely unlikely at this point that any other states will flip from the 2020 results.
Current polling averages have Trump winning Nevada and Georgia handily and Trump carrying a small but consistent lead in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin has gone back and forth and could easily go either way. If Trump does flip Nevada and Georgia, which seems likely as of right now, he only needs one of Michigan or Pennsylvania, or both Wisconsin and Arizona put him over the top.
Oddly enough, Virginia is showing as a tie, but I think the Ds have built in enough advantages for themselves in Virginia that it stays blue regardless.
All that said, a lot can change between now and Election Day.
Current polling averages have Trump winning Nevada and Georgia handily and Trump carrying a small but consistent lead in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Wisconsin has gone back and forth and could easily go either way. If Trump does flip Nevada and Georgia, which seems likely as of right now, he only needs one of Michigan or Pennsylvania, or both Wisconsin and Arizona put him over the top.
Oddly enough, Virginia is showing as a tie, but I think the Ds have built in enough advantages for themselves in Virginia that it stays blue regardless.
All that said, a lot can change between now and Election Day.
“You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.” -Abraham Lincoln
“Veganism is like communism. They’re both fine… unless you like food.”
“Veganism is like communism. They’re both fine… unless you like food.”
What do these polls do to account for the 3:00 AM votes. Serious question.
Last of the Old Army
Nothing except make it a far less believable result than it was in 2020…
2020 worked because polling in key states showed Biden with an edge going into Election Day…. If polling shows Trump with an edge in those states going into Election Day, it's harder to sell the cheat as real…if polling shows Trump with the lead, and that lead is beyond the MOE, the the optics of selling the cheat as real are nearly impossible…
2020 worked because polling in key states showed Biden with an edge going into Election Day…. If polling shows Trump with an edge in those states going into Election Day, it's harder to sell the cheat as real…if polling shows Trump with the lead, and that lead is beyond the MOE, the the optics of selling the cheat as real are nearly impossible…
Need an army of poll watchers.
In the last 5 days Amber Rose, Dr. Phil, David Sacks, 50 Cent and Russell Brand all publicly endorsed Donald Trump.
— Insurrection Barbie (@DefiyantlyFree) June 9, 2024
5 people from all different walks of life with very different audiences have come out and fully endorsed Trump.
Don’t let the media silence fool you, that is a…
Donald Trump suffers quadruple polling blow https://t.co/hOpE6eSUqB pic.twitter.com/Ct5rwOHXao
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) June 10, 2024
Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???
it is way too lowSwigAg11 said:Drahknor03 said:
Why? Trump's 2020 margin there was 3%, so 4% would be an improvement over 2020. Yes, DeSantis rolled +20 in 2022, but he was universally popular among Republicans and completely broke Dems. I bet Trump does better than +4, but I'm not surprised at that result.
I was thinking of Desantis's +20 and the recent Republican voter registration majority, which is why +4 seems low to me.
if Trump only wins Florida by + 4 he is going to lose the election
no way he wins Pennsylvania and Arizona if he can only pull a +4 in Florida.
hopefully he is closer to being up 6 or 7 right now.
maybe the inflation reduction act government spending just kicked inWaffledynamics said:
Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???
Gas prices are down (thanks to another Biden SPR dump), stock market is staying up, and the media is telling us that new jobs are multiplying faster than a Catholic bunny rabbit.Waffledynamics said:Donald Trump suffers quadruple polling blow https://t.co/hOpE6eSUqB pic.twitter.com/Ct5rwOHXao
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) June 10, 2024
Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???
The sheeple will believe whatever they're told.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
That SPR release has zero to do with gas prices. The release was 1MM barrels of oil. You get ~22MM gallons of gasoline out of that. That is less than 1/15th of the US daily use.Rapier108 said:Gas prices are down (thanks to another Biden SPR dump), stock market is staying up, and the media is telling us that new jobs are multiplying faster than a Catholic bunny rabbit.Waffledynamics said:Donald Trump suffers quadruple polling blow https://t.co/hOpE6eSUqB pic.twitter.com/Ct5rwOHXao
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) June 10, 2024
Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???
The sheeple will believe whatever they're told.
It was 1 million barrels of gasoline, not oil. Also, Iran backing off dropped the price of oil.Irish 2.0 said:That SPR release has zero to do with gas prices. The release was 1MM barrels of oil. You get ~22MM gallons of gasoline out of that. That is less than 1/15th of the US daily use.Rapier108 said:Gas prices are down (thanks to another Biden SPR dump), stock market is staying up, and the media is telling us that new jobs are multiplying faster than a Catholic bunny rabbit.Waffledynamics said:Donald Trump suffers quadruple polling blow https://t.co/hOpE6eSUqB pic.twitter.com/Ct5rwOHXao
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) June 10, 2024
Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???
The sheeple will believe whatever they're told.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/biden-to-release-1-million-barrels-of-gasoline-to-reduce-prices-at-the-pump-ahead-of-july-4.html
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
The poll was conducted among 2,063 U.S. adults from June 5-7, just days after Trump was found guilty in a New York City court on 34 counts of falsifying business records related to trying to conceal hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election.
Still a fraction of the daily use. So 42MM gallons of gasoline. The US consumption is almost 400MM gallons/day. So it is ~1/9th of a day's use.Rapier108 said:It was 1 million barrels of gasoline, not oil. Also, Iran backing off dropped the price of oil.Irish 2.0 said:That SPR release has zero to do with gas prices. The release was 1MM barrels of oil. You get ~22MM gallons of gasoline out of that. That is less than 1/15th of the US daily use.Rapier108 said:Gas prices are down (thanks to another Biden SPR dump), stock market is staying up, and the media is telling us that new jobs are multiplying faster than a Catholic bunny rabbit.Waffledynamics said:Donald Trump suffers quadruple polling blow https://t.co/hOpE6eSUqB pic.twitter.com/Ct5rwOHXao
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) June 10, 2024
Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???
The sheeple will believe whatever they're told.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/biden-to-release-1-million-barrels-of-gasoline-to-reduce-prices-at-the-pump-ahead-of-july-4.html
Perception is a funny thing. It doesn't always line up with reality, especially in the futures market.Irish 2.0 said:Still a fraction of the daily use. So 42MM gallons of gasoline. The US consumption is almost 400MM gallons/day. So it is ~1/9th of a day's use.Rapier108 said:It was 1 million barrels of gasoline, not oil. Also, Iran backing off dropped the price of oil.Irish 2.0 said:That SPR release has zero to do with gas prices. The release was 1MM barrels of oil. You get ~22MM gallons of gasoline out of that. That is less than 1/15th of the US daily use.Rapier108 said:Gas prices are down (thanks to another Biden SPR dump), stock market is staying up, and the media is telling us that new jobs are multiplying faster than a Catholic bunny rabbit.Waffledynamics said:Donald Trump suffers quadruple polling blow https://t.co/hOpE6eSUqB pic.twitter.com/Ct5rwOHXao
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) June 10, 2024
Somehow Biden gained in polling on... the economy???
The sheeple will believe whatever they're told.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/biden-to-release-1-million-barrels-of-gasoline-to-reduce-prices-at-the-pump-ahead-of-july-4.html
I think that, to be very honest with you, I do believe that we should have rightly believed, but we certainly believe that certain issues are just settled.
- Kamala Harris
Vote for Trump.
He took a bullet for America.
- Kamala Harris
Vote for Trump.
He took a bullet for America.
So does ****ting your pants in Europe while your crackhead son is on trial help with the economy? Or has Pravda convinced the masses the economy is awesome now?
And then people go to the grocery store and pay their insurance bills, and tell themselves that our economy still sucks.
Joe Biden just hit a new, all-time LOW approval rating of 37.4% on 538's average.
— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) June 10, 2024
Now, Nate Silver is openly asking if the "threshold" has been reached where Joe Biden cannot recover and should be replaced.
Wild. pic.twitter.com/XMNLaDOesr
I guess Nate doesn't read Newsweek.
It IS a good question. How low is too low from which a recovery is even possible? Plus I'd wager that Nate believes the real numbers for Biden are much lower than that.Barnyard96 said:
I guess Nate doesn't read Newsweek.
Biden is reaching a point where "much" lower is becoming mathematically impossible
Still plenty of time this summer for either Trump to be off'ed, Biden's family to be paid off, or both.
DenverAg91
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SpreadsheetAg
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