Trump doubles support among black men:

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Only 12 percent of black men voted for Trump in 2020, voting data shows. There is no compatible 2020 polling for black men.
In 2020, six percent of black women said they would vote for Trump, Associated Press polling found, five points less than the Journal's 2024 polling.
In more good news for Trump, 42 percent of black women remain up for grabs in 2024, the Journal survey showed:

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how real people respond to polls don't matter. how the mass-mailed out ballots get filled out and delivered is what matters.

There was a discussion of something similar last year.

Is the Black Vote beginning to crack? | TexAgs

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Blacks make up around 11% of the electorate and whites make up around 69%(nice) of the electorate. That same poll shows Trump down 8% with white voters from where he was in 2020 - note better margin of error for whites than blacks surveyed. Trump would gain around 1.3% from blacks, but lose 5.5% from whites.

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2023/08/Fox_August-11-14-2023_Complete_Cross-Tabs_August-17-Release.pdf
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/10/26/what-the-2020-electorate-looks-like-by-party-race-and-ethnicity-age-education-and-religion/
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

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This only matters if you count actual voters using actual legal votes.

It does not matter if you just count ballots, which can come from wherever, with whatever address, and whatever ****ty "signature", dropped under whatever ****ty drop box under a underlit bridge in Philly, Atlanta, by "uber drivers" that deliver only to hungry drop boxes that were legally required to have camera surveillance, but when surveillance is asked for legally and it "cant be found"...ehh, who cares, whatever.....oh, and guess what, the votes are counted by people paid by the guy that "donated" $500M 4 months before the election to "help count the votes"...Oh and guess what, even with the extra $500M that matches exactly what the US Federal Government provided to count the votes....it will take them an extra 3-5 weeks to count all of the votes. For the first time ever. Oh yeah, and the result of their extended counting of mail in ballots, Joe Biden will win by a very slim margin in every state he was getting absolutely butt****ed in on election night..... All because of a cold virus...

That's how the leader of the free world is actually chosen. Worse and less secure than at least 50 developed and undeveloped countries on the earth.

And that's exactly how we got who we have right now.

I am so skeptical that Trump will receive a meaningful larger share of the black vote. We saw the same predictions in the 2020 election and I don't recall it making a difference. I think they'll continue to pull the D lever in mass because the Dems cater to them constantly and manufacture stories of "racism" to stir them up in the months before an election.

Hope I'm wrong, but I'll believe it when I see it.

BadMoonRisin said:

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This only matters if you count actual voters using actual legal votes.

It does not matter if you just count ballots, which can come from wherever, with whatever address, and whatever ****ty "signature", dropped under whatever ****ty drop box under a underlit bridge in Philly, Atlanta, wherever that was legally required to have camera surveillance, but when surveillance is asked for legally and it "cant be found"...ehh, who cares, whatever.....

That's how the leader of the free world is actually chosen. Worse and less secure than at least 50 developed and undeveloped countries on the earth.

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That, along with the party in power trying to jail their competition for the office. We've become a communist country if this plays out. Never thought I'd live to see it.

The Hill runs a big essay on replacing Biden at the convention out of desperation, noting some recent problems in polling/support on his far left among other things;

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Despite the growing speculation that Biden is no longer up to task, the White House has held firm, denied all and has categorically stated that Biden will be the nominee. To be sure, almost all the arguments Alexrod's and Klein's included were folded around the joint worries about Biden's advanced age as well as his perceived cognitive issues.

But beyond those arguments, three major vulnerabilities have crested the Biden reelection horizon: A new, improved and highly focused Trump campaign; the populist independent campaign of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; and possibly the greatest threat to Biden's reelection chances he has become radioactive to the far-left wing of his party.

To be sure, the Democrats who do feel Biden is now a liability to holding the White House are deeply concerned about Trump's poll numbers, his massive base, his increased fundraising and his more locked-down, disciplined campaign. If one reads between the lines of pieces put out by the Democrat-supporting mainstream media, it's clear that many are now being written with the assumption that Trump will be the winner.

Next comes the growing problem of RFK Jr. He is a populist, he speaks to every demographic of voter and, with Nicole Shanahan now his announced vice-presidential choice, it's all but guaranteed that he will get on a majority of state ballots. The DNC has made it clear that it sees Kennedy as a direct threat to Biden's reelection. Unfortunately for them, RFK Jr. is proving to be the most powerful and resilient third-party candidate in three decades.

But the threats posed to Biden from Trump and Kennedy may pale next to the last one: Biden is seen as yesterday's news to far-left and young liberal voters.

While almost no one is paying attention anymore, there were still primaries held last week. And within the vote counts of those primaries, hid the most ominous news and threat to Biden. In Wisconsin, Connecticut and Rhode Island, collectively, over 10 percent of Democrats voted "uncommitted" or for another candidate.

These "uncommitted" results came after far-left activists pushed voters to refrain from voting for Biden in protest over a host of issues most especially his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas. In Wisconsin, 48,000 Democrats voted "uninstructed." Another 17,000-plus voted for Dean Phillips … who is no longer even in the race.

Wisconsin is a critical swing state, and those numbers have to be setting off alarm bells for Democrats. In Connecticut and Rhode Island, the same horror movie played across the screen. Nearly 12 percent of Democrats in Connecticut voted "uncommitted"; in Rhode Island, it was 14.9 percent.

The Biden and Democratic Party cheerleaders in the media and elsewhere love to chirp out that in 2020, Biden got 306 electoral votes and won by over 7,000,000 votes. While that may feed their false bravado, the reality was that if 50,000 votes in a few states had flipped, Biden would have lost.

While the Trump and Kennedy campaigns are obviously a threat to Biden's reelection, it is now this seemingly solid 10 percent of "uncommitted" far-left and young Democratic voters permanently turning their back on the president who make Biden's campaign unsustainable. A percentage which is likely to grow over the next few months.

That being the case, if the Democrats hope to win in November, Biden will have to be replaced at the convention in Chicago come August.

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Contrarily, analyses/poll showing Republicans should be rooting for high turnout.

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Despite that, though, Trump wasn't significantly more popular with infrequent voters than with consistent voters. In a poll I conducted in January and February 2016 via GfK's KnowledgePanel, respondents who hadn't voted in any of the three prior general elections (2010, 2012 and 2014) supported former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 3 percentage points. For respondents who had voted in all of those elections, Clinton's lead was only slightly larger: 6 points.

Today, though, this mild "participation gap" has become massive. Between Feb. 20 and March 18, 2024,* Gall Sigler and I oversaw a survey, fielded by NORC, of 2,462 English- and Spanish-speaking adults living in the U.S. According to public records, 63 percent of our respondents who reported being U.S. citizens turned out to vote in 2020.**

And when we broke out respondents by their voting history, we found dramatic differences in whom they support for president in 2024. President Joe Biden performed much better among frequent voters, while Trump had a large lead among people who haven't voted recently. Specifically, among respondents who voted in the 2018, 2020 and 2022 general elections, Biden outpaced Trump 50 percent to 39 percent. But among respondents who were old enough to vote but voted in none of those three elections, Trump crushed Biden 44 percent to 26 percent.

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This is one of my biggest concerns regarding the convention. If the dems can pull the ole' switcheroo then we could be in trouble. They have one or multiple things up their sleeves though. In January 2020 Trump was on the express track to reelection and they found a way to derail him with covid and mail in votes. They'll pull something again because they're all about winning at all costs and the media will carry their water.

Getting fake lipmus test topics the F out of the R platform is all we need to get conservative policies back in play. If I hear Disney, Bud or transgender again, we start winning. The left is profiling Rs based on distraction issues.

Bearpitbull said:

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Getting fake lipmus test topics the F out of the R platform is all we need to get conservative policies back in play. If I hear Disney, Bud or transgender again, we start winning. The left is profiling Rs based on distraction issues.

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I don't think you should be taken seriously.

nortex97 said:

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When the Dems start talking about seizing retirement funds over a certain amount there will be a shift by these crazy white folk. You would think handicapping their kids because of their race/sex (i.e., their sons) would be enough.

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LOL, talk about some issues the Dems will absolutely not even be whispering about at the DNC this summer.

They won't discuss that until well past the election, if they 'win' and then it would be dropped like how Obama dropped Obamacare on the country after not campaigning at all on the need to move to communist medicine.

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It will happen after an election for sure, but it will be too late.

It's hard to imagine that the left side of his party has problems with his performance. He, well not him but the people calling the shots, are running by far the most progressive presidency ever.

agsalaska said:

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It's hard to imagine that the left side of his party has problems with his performance. He, well not him but the people calling the shots, are running by far the most progressive presidency ever.

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They really do demand overt support for hamas. Gett mf Iran nukes to use on Tel Aviv is an objective to them. And they are mad he didn't get trump thrown in jail earlier. Seriously.

#NEW General Election Poll - Arizona

🔴 Trump 48% (+4)
🔵 Biden 44%@TonyFabrizioGOP (🔴) - 600 LV - 4/11

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) April 15, 2024

Excellent.

#NEW General Election Poll - Florida

🔴 Trump 39% (+8)
🔵 Biden 31%

Senate
🔴 Scott 36% (+10)
🔵 Powell 26%

Ipsos - 1,014 A - 4/7

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) April 14, 2024

Good enough; I just want Florida safe enough for the GOP/campaign to not have to spend money on it, but maybe close enough to sucker some Democrats to waste funds there.

🚨 Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) are tied in the latest national polling average update from Decision Desk HQ/@thehill. Trump had previously led in our average since mid-October 2023.

Check it out here: https://t.co/A4AuTS5mfO pic.twitter.com/fuvbDCoQdU

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) April 16, 2024

Congratulations. Your rampant discord will get Biden elected.

At this point, all of the movement in the polls has been Dems in blue states coming home post primary. All the battle ground polls still show Trump winning handily.

Trump +6 in two-way/+3 in five-way in Michigan.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

Drahknor03 said:

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At this point, all of the movement in the polls has been Dems in blue states coming home post primary. All the battle ground polls still show Trump winning handily.

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That's what I am seeing as well. Nothing has really changed yet in the battleground states.

The senate races in the battleground states, particularly Ohio and Arizona, are what I am primarily interested in right now. Frankly, I don't see a lot of good data on those, either way.

Still say he needs to be polling outside of the MOE in battleground states to beat the cheat...

Surprised Biden posted Charlie Kirk, but it's hard to get out the vote without personnel in place.

Trump operative Charlie Kirk: We are struggling right now, we can’t compete with Biden’s field offices. Biden has 450 people on staff in key states, we do not believe Trump has a single field office in any of those states. Biden is a formidable opponent pic.twitter.com/BKEi6aRrtq

— Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) April 17, 2024

**** polls cuz the lyin' left is gonna cheat anyway.

Well he's lying, as Charlie Kirk is of course not a "Trump operative."

In places that matter Trump is up still, such as Wisconsin (1.2 on average). The Hamas wing of the Democrat party is also loudly insisting they won't turn out for Biden again.

You can be up in the polls all you want, but if there needs to be a GOTV operation to turn it into a win at the ballot box.

Which is the problem

TRM said:

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You can be up in the polls all you want, but if there needs to be a GOTV operation to turn it into a win at the ballot box.

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and for the socialist regime, they can be down in the polls and not even care because they won't ever be down in the mass-mailed out ballots, well-funded ballot harvesting operations- much of it from foreigners and left coast elitists, insecure and un-surveilled drop-boxes all over the place, and no signature verification, which is on the envelope and separated from the ballots upon opening anyway. They can scare people about their opponent being the next hitler or the scary proposition of potential for fewer crushed baby skulls, but they don't really need a GOTV effort or campaign anymore.

TRM said:

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You can be up in the polls all you want, but if there needs to be a GOTV operation to turn it into a win at the ballot box.

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Not an argument on that but GOTV stuff doesn't really matter yet. I don't know when it starts with mail in balloting etc. in battleground states but I think it's around September.

Overall, the polls still look good for team Trump:

This is curtains for Rutabaga, w Trump over 50 https://t.co/DOyEYJKlzH

— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) April 18, 2024

How'd that turn out?

For you who do polls.

ICYMI virtually EVERY poll in last 3-4 days is moving toward the GOP https://t.co/vuI2jwdY6C

— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 23, 2020

Moving maybe but most averages were within MOE on Election Day…

Yeah, I have decided Larry is…not real credible, frankly. He was just…off on everything in 2020. Always a koolaid drinker for team red.

This is interesting/better; 'Why Biden can't win'

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I don't think he can, anyway. Check out these numbers from Rasmussen:

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Republicans have a major edge over Democrats in terms of voter excitement, and voters overwhelmingly see President Joe Biden as too old to hold the office..
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More Republicans (68%) than Democrats (50%) are genuinely excited about the election rematch. Voters not affiliated with either major party are about evenly split between being genuinely excited (44%) and choosing the lesser of two evils (45%).

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So, an 18-point advantage in enthusiasm.

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Biden is 81 years old, and 57% of voters say he's too old to be president, while 33% say he's not too old.

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How can Biden win when, apart from his other defects, 57% think he is simply too old for the job? And that perception is not going to weaken between now and November. Biden has signaled that he does not intend to debate Donald Trump. I don't think he can. He isn't up to it. The Democrats will try to sell the absurd idea that Biden isn't afraid to debate, he just doesn't want to "legitimize" Trump by sharing a stage with him. Right. When Biden refuses to debate Trump, it will seal the conclusion in just about every voter's mind that he simply isn't up to the job.
This is interesting, too. So much for the youth vote:

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Voters under 40 are more likely than their elders to think Biden is too old to be president.

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The income breakdown is troubling for Biden:

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Breaking down the electorate by income categories, voters in the highest bracket earning more than $200,000 a year are most likely to say Biden is too old to be president.

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That is Biden's base! Conversely:

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Those with annual incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 are most likely to say they're genuinely excited about this year's election choice.

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Rasmussen and Powerline have been wrong.

But even assuming it's true, you have to get voters to the polls. Only one of them is spending like it's a real campaign.

March campaign committee operating expenditures:
Biden: $29,043,949
Trump: $3,739,984 pic.twitter.com/Yhcxm5YvoR

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) April 21, 2024

Drahknor03 said:

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At this point, all of the movement in the polls has been Dems in blue states coming home post primary. All the battle ground polls still show Trump winning handily.

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Trump should never be up in the national average, the fact he is should be freaking out the Dems, which it is.

A toss up would be Biden +2 or more in the national average. Anything less is big trouble

Trump has little money and is hounded with court cases against him.

Yet he still leads in the polls. Ultimately, the left will have to pull the mass harvesting of votes in the swing states to pull of the win.

Just like 2020, the Republicans will do nothing about it but whine about if only someone else had ran.

TRM said:

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Rasmussen and Powerline have been wrong.

But even assuming it's true, you have to get voters to the polls. Only one of them is spending like it's a real campaign.

March campaign committee operating expenditures:
Biden: $29,043,949
Trump: $3,739,984 pic.twitter.com/Yhcxm5YvoR

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) April 21, 2024

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Follow up. Making low propensity voters the base of your support is troublesome. You're going to need spend more voter to make sure they get out to vote - money that Trump doesn't have.

📊 NBC News Poll: Presidential Election

Voted in 2020 & 2022: 🔵 Biden +9

Didn't vote in either: 🔴 Trump+22
—
"Very interested in election"

• April 2024 — 64% (an all-time low)

• July 2020 — 77%

• May 2016 — 69%

• April 2012 — 67%

• April 2008 — 74% https://t.co/xrD5fsUnLl pic.twitter.com/aSomgbhaaC

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 21, 2024