Biden only getting 70% is pretty big dent

ETA, is this a yougov online registered voters poll?

ImSoDumb said:

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Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.

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Didn't Biden get like 85% of the black vote in '2020?

If he only gets 70% in 2024, Trump will win.

Science Denier said:

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ImSoDumb said:

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Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.

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Didn't Biden get like 85% of the black vote in '2020?

If he only gets 70% in 2024, Trump will win.

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You are not factoring the millions of illegals that will be voting for Biden in 2024 to offset that 15% loss.

This will go to the supreme court.

Science Denier said:

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ImSoDumb said:

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Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.

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Didn't Biden get like 85% of the black vote in '2020?

If he only gets 70% in 2024, Trump will win.

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A classic self own by ImSoDumb. Fitting.

Back to Polls

Siena College poll has Biden up +8 in NY. For reference during the 2020 cycle that was 18.6 margin at its smallest and the last polls had Biden up +30. Actual results were Biden 60.7%, Trump 37.7% so Bident +23.

I'm not saying NY is going Red but that is just another confirmation of major alarm bells. That means Trump has to be getting close to 100% republicans and 100% independents.

texagbeliever said:

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Back to Polls

Siena College poll has Biden up +8 in NY. For reference during the 2020 cycle that was 18.6 margin at its smallest and the last polls had Biden up +30. Actual results were Biden 60.7%, Trump 37.7% so Bident +23.

I'm not saying NY is going Red but that is just another confirmation of major alarm bells. That means Trump has to be getting close to 100% republicans and 100% independents.

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I was thinking the other day if Trump won the popular vote but lost in the EC?

aggiehawg said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Back to Polls

Siena College poll has Biden up +8 in NY. For reference during the 2020 cycle that was 18.6 margin at its smallest and the last polls had Biden up +30. Actual results were Biden 60.7%, Trump 37.7% so Bident +23.

I'm not saying NY is going Red but that is just another confirmation of major alarm bells. That means Trump has to be getting close to 100% republicans and 100% independents.

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I was thinking the other day if Trump won the popular vote but lost in the EC?

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In the abstract that would not be the worst thing in the world.(other than four more years of Biden). The electoral college is one of if not the most important institution this country has. And it has been attacked for years by the Democrats. Other than the dumb dumb 'muh fraud' idiots, the rest of the Republicans would not delegitimize the winner of the electoral college because of a win in the popular vote like the Dems have. At least I don't think so.

texagbeliever said:

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Back to Polls

Siena College poll has Biden up +8 in NY. For reference during the 2020 cycle that was 18.6 margin at its smallest and the last polls had Biden up +30. Actual results were Biden 60.7%, Trump 37.7% so Bident +23.

I'm not saying NY is going Red but that is just another confirmation of major alarm bells. That means Trump has to be getting close to 100% republicans and 100% independents.

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It's another sign that the race is not even that close right now. I listen to Dan Abrams occasionally and he had a caller today that said the Democrats have been overcome by 'wishful thinking.' I agree with them. At least right now.

Wake me up one week after the debate. If we are still where we are today Biden is in a LOT of trouble.

aggiehawg said:

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texagbeliever said:

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Back to Polls

Siena College poll has Biden up +8 in NY. For reference during the 2020 cycle that was 18.6 margin at its smallest and the last polls had Biden up +30. Actual results were Biden 60.7%, Trump 37.7% so Bident +23.

I'm not saying NY is going Red but that is just another confirmation of major alarm bells. That means Trump has to be getting close to 100% republicans and 100% independents.

---

I was thinking the other day if Trump won the popular vote but lost in the EC?

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Don't think that is possible.
Only 2 ways Trump wins the popular vote: Men turnout in numbers closer to women. 10MM more women voted then men in 2020. Women are closer to +8 Dem while Men are now closer to +10 Republican.
Or Women see that Trump is going to win and they switch to support the side they think is going to win.

Under both of those scenarios I think a landslide EC is in order.

And that poll was after the verdict. A reduction of 15 points after Trump was "convicted" of "34" felonies. Democrats have no touch on the pulse of Americans: thankfully so.

Quote:

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Don't think that is possible.
Only 2 ways Trump wins the popular vote: Men turnout in numbers closer to women. 10MM more women voted then men in 2020. Women are closer to +8 Dem while Men are now closer to +10 Republican.
Or Women see that Trump is going to win and they switch to support the side they think is going to win.

Under both of those scenarios I think a landslide EC is in order.

---

I think you misunderstood my point. Biden's margin of victory in a highly populated blue state such as NY with that big of swing to Trump means Trump could still lose the state but those millions of votes go into the popular vote category. Ditto for the blue wall states and even CA. Those types of percentages may not sound like a lot but when they are toted upon the popular vote board, can make a big difference.

Hillary was only up 5 million over Trump in '16 nationwide in the popular vote.

Science Denier said:

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ImSoDumb said:

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Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.

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Didn't Biden get like 85% of the black vote in '2020?

If he only gets 70% in 2024, Trump will win.

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If they're in the only states (battle ground) that matter, that's very true. If they're in red states then not so much.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Don't think that is possible.
Only 2 ways Trump wins the popular vote: Men turnout in numbers closer to women. 10MM more women voted then men in 2020. Women are closer to +8 Dem while Men are now closer to +10 Republican.
Or Women see that Trump is going to win and they switch to support the side they think is going to win.

Under both of those scenarios I think a landslide EC is in order.

---

I think you misunderstood my point. Biden's margin of victory in a highly populated blue state such as NY with that big of swing to Trump means Trump could still lose the state but those millions of votes go into the popular vote category. Ditto for the blue wall states and even CA. Those types of percentages may not sound like a lot but when they are toted upon the popular vote board, can make a big difference.

Hillary was only up 5 million over Trump in '16 nationwide in the popular vote.

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I think my point was more that if Trump makes a big dent in NY and other blue wall states, then I would expect him to gain 100k or so votes in the swing states to give him the W. I don't think it is the blue wall liking certain policies of Trump that would be unique to them but rather a general independent/moderate wanting not Biden.

Trump needs to win WI. That's the one.

Odds favor Trump again:

🇺🇲 2024 GE: The Economist Forecast [chance of winning]

PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 67%
🟦 Biden: 33%

WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 63%
🟦 Biden: 37%
.
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 59%
🟦 Biden: 41%
.
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 72%
🟦 Biden: 28%
.
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 75%
🟦 Biden: 25%
.
NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 64%… pic.twitter.com/EMHJWomxLP

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 21, 2024

Let's see how the debate goes next Thursday. Very low expectations for Biden. If he speaks well and appears competent, he could get a big boost. Trump needs to avoid the same disaster he had in his first debate in 2020.

If Biden has a gaffe, looks lost, or comes across as a cranky old man he could be toast. Especially if Trump is focused and doesn't act like an obnoxious bully by trying to talk over him constantly.

Oh, and on the TDS-pushed/hyped Fox News poll yesterday, peeling away at the onion a bit here;

WAKE UP, Read this...

This is how they begin the steal, they show a BS Poll to make the race seem closer than it is. Do yourself a favor and look up who conducts the Fox Poll.

Get ready... Do a Grok search on these two "Polling Contributors" Beacon Researh (D) and Shaw &… https://t.co/39aXVIEJSO

— Scott Bales (@ScottBalesX) June 20, 2024

None of the corporate media can be trusted. But that's why Elon buying twitter is such a game changer.

This is exactly the sort of post that will continue to battle the traditional, staged narratives.

The truth may damn well set us free.

I wonder what president gives Fox better ratings during their term?

Barnyard96 said:

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I wonder what president gives Fox better ratings during their term?

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I'm reminded of Rush's old comment that he got better ratings when Democrats were in office. And Murdoch's kid probably doesn't care about ratings anyway, as shown by the Tucker firing.

Aaaaand, for a completely opposite take on the polls:

Simon says Democrats will kick ass in November.

Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) sat down with @TheRickWilson, @stuartpstevens & @JoeTrippi this week on Strategy Session to talk about Biden's extraordinary past two weeks and predictions for Congress.

Click for full episode: pic.twitter.com/lA0nWgbAAX

— Resolute Square (@ResoluteSquare) June 20, 2024

For what it's worth, the ownership of Fox News hates Trump. Expect more of Trump slippage in their reporting as the election approaches.

MemphisAg1 said:

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Let's see how the debate goes next Thursday. Very low expectations for Biden. If he speaks well and appears competent, he could get a big boost. Trump needs to avoid the same disaster he had in his first debate in 2020.

If Biden has a gaffe, looks lost, or comes across as a cranky old man he could be toast. Especially if Trump is focused and doesn't act like an obnoxious bully by trying to talk over him constantly.

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I don't think there is anything that either can do for themselves that will provide a 'big boost.' Nobody is going to say 'Hey, I guess Biden is OK after all, I will ignore this inflation and these illiegals and vote for him' after watching the debate. Maybe a select few but not many.

They could both however hurt themselves.



I feel like the minds are mostly made up. It is all about getting out the vote.

Article on status of the young voter.
https://www.expressnews.com/politics/article/young-republicans-gen-z-19518085.php

nortex97 said:

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Oh, and on the TDS-pushed/hyped Fox News poll yesterday, peeling away at the onion a bit here;

WAKE UP, Read this...

This is how they begin the steal, they show a BS Poll to make the race seem closer than it is. Do yourself a favor and look up who conducts the Fox Poll.

Get ready... Do a Grok search on these two "Polling Contributors" Beacon Researh (D) and Shaw &… https://t.co/39aXVIEJSO

— Scott Bales (@ScottBalesX) June 20, 2024

---

It is not some back room 'prepare for the steal!!!' Thats a bunch of nonsense. Geeze.

Every poll will have some kind of oddity. We have seen it in the black vote, the suburban vote, etc. Here we see it in 'Save the Democracy.' Most polls have something like that. A posted earlier correctly called it 'statistical noise'\\

It could also be an indication of a skew in the sampling but I kind of doubt it. For the record when I say skew I am not saying they polled more of one side than the other. They all do that for different reasons. I am referring to the respondents lying.

Jabin said:

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Aaaaand, for a completely opposite take on the polls:

Simon says Democrats will kick ass in November.

Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) sat down with @TheRickWilson, @stuartpstevens & @JoeTrippi this week on Strategy Session to talk about Biden's extraordinary past two weeks and predictions for Congress.

Click for full episode: pic.twitter.com/lA0nWgbAAX

— Resolute Square (@ResoluteSquare) June 20, 2024

---

They mentioned the word "polls" in the last few seconds of that clip in relation to democrat senate incumbents "holding strong". The entire rest of the clip was simply Democrat talking points on the economy and how strong a leader Biden showed himself to be in Europe during D-Day week.

Doesn't really pass for any kind of polling analysis in my mind.

As far as polling. As usual, nothing national really matters except as general comparison to previous cycles. It does help to know if Biden is maintaining a gap nationally or has lost it. So far there is no doubt he's lost the margin which indicates an enthusiasm issue that he must overcome. This Democratic propaganda you've posted here is part of the parties efforts to do that. Which is obviously important for them.


Polling will become interesting at the state level here in about 4-6 weeks as it relates to some key states and some states people aren't talking much about.

I mentioned one last week. New Mexico. Even though there is now a poll out showing Biden ahead, it's by a much smaller margin than he won last time and a smaller margin than Clinton won in 2016. RFK is also still trying to get on ballot there. I think he well get it done. That changes the dynamics in a state where strong third party candidates do well there. As I said in an earlier post, I also believe Pete Domenicis rich daughter running for Senate in NM might help Trump. She's running on law and order and Immigration. Despite what those men said in that clip posted, these are not strong points for Biden or the Democrats. Especially in a place like New Mexico.


RFKjr is already on the ballot in New Hampshire and Michigan. In NH I think this ends of mattering because many of the democrats of New Hampshire are the RFK type of Democrats. Trumps floor in NH is 45%, he's not dropping below that number and if he ends up matching his 2016 number of 46%, things get very interesting if RFK has a strong showing in NH. In 2016, Clinton and Trump both got 46% of the vote with Johnson having a decent showing in the state. Clinton only edged out Trump by less than .5%.

Trump polling is still holding in MI. In the latest MI poll he still holds a 2 point edge on Biden in head to head. When they asked the question and included RFK, who is on the ballot in MI, Trumps margin increased to 3 points over Biden. I think MI ends up looking more like 2016 than 2020.

He needs NV polling to be real. I must admit, I'm really surprised by the strength of his numbers in NV so far. They are not behind MOE, but they are much closer to that level than I ever imagined for that state. When you dig deeper on NV numbers you do see that Biden closes the gap when undecideds are asked which way they are leaning. Undecideds break toward Biden enough to make it a dead heat race head to head. But when RFK is thrown into the mix, Trump again maintains an edge on Biden just like he does in places like Michigan.

These of course are states that Trump does not have to win. He needs AZ and GA to remain strong and turnout to be strong. And most likely he needs WI numbers to stay in his favor. With the latest polling on WI Trump leads Biden when not counting any undecideds and after undecideds are asked which way they are leaning. Biden does close the gap a little, but not much. When RFK is included in the question, Trump continues to maintain his lead on Biden.


In all of these polls, this is the Hill/Emerson that just came out. I think they are over representing young people and underrepresenting Latinos in their polling numbers. That's worth noting. I won't break that down because this post is already too long.

At the end of the day. This election is likely as razor thin for the EC as it was in 2000, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Nothing has changed in 2024.

There you go, this is a take on polling . What you posted was just a Democrat talking through party talking points on the economy and Biden with a bunch of men that hate Donald Trump.

Quote:

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What you posted was just a Democrat talking through party talking points on the economy and Biden with a bunch of men that hate Donald Trump

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Agreed

May fundraising total

🔴 Trump - 105 million
🔵 Biden - 61 million

FEC pic.twitter.com/iRKCXrtSRQ

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 21, 2024

Quote:

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I mentioned one last week. New Mexico. Even though there is now a poll out showing Biden ahead, it's by a much smaller margin than he won last time and a smaller margin than Clinton won in 2016. RFK is also still trying to get on ballot there. I think he well get it done. That changes the dynamics in a state where strong third party candidates do well there. As I said in an earlier post, I also believe Pete Domenicis rich daughter running for Senate in NM might help Trump. She's running on law and order and Immigration. Despite what those men said in that clip posted, these are not strong points for Biden or the Democrats. Especially in a place like New Mexico.


RFKjr is already on the ballot in New Hampshire and Michigan. In NH I think this ends of mattering because many of the democrats of New Hampshire are the RFK type of Democrats. Trumps floor in NH is 45%, he's not dropping below that number and if he ends up matching his 2016 number of 46%, things get very interesting if RFK has a strong showing in NH. In 2016, Clinton and Trump both got 46% of the vote with Johnson having a decent showing in the state. Clinton only edged out Trump by less than .5%.

Trump polling is still holding in MI. In the latest MI poll he still holds a 2 point edge on Biden in head to head. When they asked the question and included RFK, who is on the ballot in MI, Trumps margin increased to 3 points over Biden. I think MI ends up looking more like 2016 than 2020.

He needs NV polling to be real. I must admit, I'm really surprised by the strength of his numbers in NV so far. They are not behind MOE, but they are much closer to that level than I ever imagined for that state. When you dig deeper on NV numbers you do see that Biden closes the gap when undecideds are asked which way they are leaning. Undecideds break toward Biden enough to make it a dead heat race head to head. But when RFK is thrown into the mix, Trump again maintains an edge on Biden just like he does in places like Michigan.

---

I can't recall agreeing with you on much here but I do on these points.

(Separately), Trump's gonna have to pull Sheeh over the line;

#New general Election Poll - Montana

🔴 Trump 57% (+20)
🔵 Biden 37%

Senate
🔴 Tim Sheey 46%
🔵 John Tester (Inc) 46%

POS 🔴 B+ - 500 LV - 6/13 pic.twitter.com/F19ZKQyE3z

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 20, 2024

nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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I mentioned one last week. New Mexico. Even though there is now a poll out showing Biden ahead, it's by a much smaller margin than he won last time and a smaller margin than Clinton won in 2016. RFK is also still trying to get on ballot there. I think he well get it done. That changes the dynamics in a state where strong third party candidates do well there. As I said in an earlier post, I also believe Pete Domenicis rich daughter running for Senate in NM might help Trump. She's running on law and order and Immigration. Despite what those men said in that clip posted, these are not strong points for Biden or the Democrats. Especially in a place like New Mexico.


RFKjr is already on the ballot in New Hampshire and Michigan. In NH I think this ends of mattering because many of the democrats of New Hampshire are the RFK type of Democrats. Trumps floor in NH is 45%, he's not dropping below that number and if he ends up matching his 2016 number of 46%, things get very interesting if RFK has a strong showing in NH. In 2016, Clinton and Trump both got 46% of the vote with Johnson having a decent showing in the state. Clinton only edged out Trump by less than .5%.

Trump polling is still holding in MI. In the latest MI poll he still holds a 2 point edge on Biden in head to head. When they asked the question and included RFK, who is on the ballot in MI, Trumps margin increased to 3 points over Biden. I think MI ends up looking more like 2016 than 2020.

He needs NV polling to be real. I must admit, I'm really surprised by the strength of his numbers in NV so far. They are not behind MOE, but they are much closer to that level than I ever imagined for that state. When you dig deeper on NV numbers you do see that Biden closes the gap when undecideds are asked which way they are leaning. Undecideds break toward Biden enough to make it a dead heat race head to head. But when RFK is thrown into the mix, Trump again maintains an edge on Biden just like he does in places like Michigan.

---

I can't recall agreeing with you on much here but I do on these points.

(Separately), Trump's gonna have to pull Sheeh over the line;

#New general Election Poll - Montana

🔴 Trump 57% (+20)
🔵 Biden 37%

Senate
🔴 Tim Sheey 46%
🔵 John Tester (Inc) 46%

POS 🔴 B+ - 500 LV - 6/13 pic.twitter.com/F19ZKQyE3z

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 20, 2024

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Why does Montana like Tester's fatass again? The fact it is that close tells me people in Montana are stupid

2023NCAggies said:

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nortex97 said:

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Quote:

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I mentioned one last week. New Mexico. Even though there is now a poll out showing Biden ahead, it's by a much smaller margin than he won last time and a smaller margin than Clinton won in 2016. RFK is also still trying to get on ballot there. I think he well get it done. That changes the dynamics in a state where strong third party candidates do well there. As I said in an earlier post, I also believe Pete Domenicis rich daughter running for Senate in NM might help Trump. She's running on law and order and Immigration. Despite what those men said in that clip posted, these are not strong points for Biden or the Democrats. Especially in a place like New Mexico.


RFKjr is already on the ballot in New Hampshire and Michigan. In NH I think this ends of mattering because many of the democrats of New Hampshire are the RFK type of Democrats. Trumps floor in NH is 45%, he's not dropping below that number and if he ends up matching his 2016 number of 46%, things get very interesting if RFK has a strong showing in NH. In 2016, Clinton and Trump both got 46% of the vote with Johnson having a decent showing in the state. Clinton only edged out Trump by less than .5%.

Trump polling is still holding in MI. In the latest MI poll he still holds a 2 point edge on Biden in head to head. When they asked the question and included RFK, who is on the ballot in MI, Trumps margin increased to 3 points over Biden. I think MI ends up looking more like 2016 than 2020.

He needs NV polling to be real. I must admit, I'm really surprised by the strength of his numbers in NV so far. They are not behind MOE, but they are much closer to that level than I ever imagined for that state. When you dig deeper on NV numbers you do see that Biden closes the gap when undecideds are asked which way they are leaning. Undecideds break toward Biden enough to make it a dead heat race head to head. But when RFK is thrown into the mix, Trump again maintains an edge on Biden just like he does in places like Michigan.

---

I can't recall agreeing with you on much here but I do on these points.

(Separately), Trump's gonna have to pull Sheeh over the line;

#New general Election Poll - Montana

🔴 Trump 57% (+20)
🔵 Biden 37%

Senate
🔴 Tim Sheey 46%
🔵 John Tester (Inc) 46%

POS 🔴 B+ - 500 LV - 6/13 pic.twitter.com/F19ZKQyE3z

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 20, 2024

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Why does Montana like Tester's fatass again? The fact it is that close tells me people in Montana are stupid

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Wow
Montana DeBag radar is inconsistent

I cannot believe how bad all the Republican senate candidates are doing. Pathetic

2023NCAggies said:

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I cannot believe how bad all the Republican senate candidates are doing. Pathetic

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MAGA/Trump backed Senate candidates do not do well outside of very red states, and even there they poll below other Republican candidates. Having Trump hang around your neck is a net negative in the general election.

This has been shown time again 2018, 2020, and 2022.

The ONLY reason Trump isn't down 20+ points right now is because Biden is just that bad. Anyone but Trump would be up 10-15 over Biden.

As soon as Biden is replaced, then Trump will be looking at a 1984 Mondale style loss.

Quote:

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As soon as Biden is replaced, then Trump will be looking at a 1984 Mondale style loss.

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LOL. Hyperbole much? Mondale only won one state and DC. You are claiming Trump will only win one state?