Jabin said:
Aaaaand, for a completely opposite take on the polls:
They mentioned the word "polls" in the last few seconds of that clip in relation to democrat senate incumbents "holding strong". The entire rest of the clip was simply Democrat talking points on the economy and how strong a leader Biden showed himself to be in Europe during D-Day week.
Doesn't really pass for any kind of polling analysis in my mind.
As far as polling. As usual, nothing national really matters except as general comparison to previous cycles. It does help to know if Biden is maintaining a gap nationally or has lost it. So far there is no doubt he's lost the margin which indicates an enthusiasm issue that he must overcome. This Democratic propaganda you've posted here is part of the parties efforts to do that. Which is obviously important for them.
Polling will become interesting at the state level here in about 4-6 weeks as it relates to some key states and some states people aren't talking much about.
I mentioned one last week. New Mexico. Even though there is now a poll out showing Biden ahead, it's by a much smaller margin than he won last time and a smaller margin than Clinton won in 2016. RFK is also still trying to get on ballot there. I think he well get it done. That changes the dynamics in a state where strong third party candidates do well there. As I said in an earlier post, I also believe Pete Domenicis rich daughter running for Senate in NM might help Trump. She's running on law and order and Immigration. Despite what those men said in that clip posted, these are not strong points for Biden or the Democrats. Especially in a place like New Mexico.
RFKjr is already on the ballot in New Hampshire and Michigan. In NH I think this ends of mattering because many of the democrats of New Hampshire are the RFK type of Democrats. Trumps floor in NH is 45%, he's not dropping below that number and if he ends up matching his 2016 number of 46%, things get very interesting if RFK has a strong showing in NH. In 2016, Clinton and Trump both got 46% of the vote with Johnson having a decent showing in the state. Clinton only edged out Trump by less than .5%.
Trump polling is still holding in MI. In the latest MI poll he still holds a 2 point edge on Biden in head to head. When they asked the question and included RFK, who is on the ballot in MI, Trumps margin increased to 3 points over Biden. I think MI ends up looking more like 2016 than 2020.
He needs NV polling to be real. I must admit, I'm really surprised by the strength of his numbers in NV so far. They are not behind MOE, but they are much closer to that level than I ever imagined for that state. When you dig deeper on NV numbers you do see that Biden closes the gap when undecideds are asked which way they are leaning. Undecideds break toward Biden enough to make it a dead heat race head to head. But when RFK is thrown into the mix, Trump again maintains an edge on Biden just like he does in places like Michigan.
These of course are states that Trump does not have to win. He needs AZ and GA to remain strong and turnout to be strong. And most likely he needs WI numbers to stay in his favor. With the latest polling on WI Trump leads Biden when not counting any undecideds and after undecideds are asked which way they are leaning. Biden does close the gap a little, but not much. When RFK is included in the question, Trump continues to maintain his lead on Biden.
In all of these polls, this is the Hill/Emerson that just came out. I think they are over representing young people and underrepresenting Latinos in their polling numbers. That's worth noting. I won't break that down because this post is already too long.
At the end of the day. This election is likely as razor thin for the EC as it was in 2000, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Nothing has changed in 2024.
There you go, this is a take on polling . What you posted was just a Democrat talking through party talking points on the economy and Biden with a bunch of men that hate Donald Trump.
