ETA, is this a yougov online registered voters poll?
Didn't Biden get like 85% of the black vote in '2020?ImSoDumb said:
Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.
You are not factoring the millions of illegals that will be voting for Biden in 2024 to offset that 15% loss.Science Denier said:Didn't Biden get like 85% of the black vote in '2020?ImSoDumb said:
Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.
If he only gets 70% in 2024, Trump will win.
A classic self own by ImSoDumb. Fitting.Science Denier said:Didn't Biden get like 85% of the black vote in '2020?ImSoDumb said:
Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.
If he only gets 70% in 2024, Trump will win.
I was thinking the other day if Trump won the popular vote but lost in the EC?texagbeliever said:
Back to Polls
Siena College poll has Biden up +8 in NY. For reference during the 2020 cycle that was 18.6 margin at its smallest and the last polls had Biden up +30. Actual results were Biden 60.7%, Trump 37.7% so Bident +23.
I'm not saying NY is going Red but that is just another confirmation of major alarm bells. That means Trump has to be getting close to 100% republicans and 100% independents.
aggiehawg said:I was thinking the other day if Trump won the popular vote but lost in the EC?texagbeliever said:
Back to Polls
Siena College poll has Biden up +8 in NY. For reference during the 2020 cycle that was 18.6 margin at its smallest and the last polls had Biden up +30. Actual results were Biden 60.7%, Trump 37.7% so Bident +23.
I'm not saying NY is going Red but that is just another confirmation of major alarm bells. That means Trump has to be getting close to 100% republicans and 100% independents.
texagbeliever said:
Back to Polls
Siena College poll has Biden up +8 in NY. For reference during the 2020 cycle that was 18.6 margin at its smallest and the last polls had Biden up +30. Actual results were Biden 60.7%, Trump 37.7% so Bident +23.
I'm not saying NY is going Red but that is just another confirmation of major alarm bells. That means Trump has to be getting close to 100% republicans and 100% independents.
Don't think that is possible.aggiehawg said:I was thinking the other day if Trump won the popular vote but lost in the EC?texagbeliever said:
Back to Polls
Siena College poll has Biden up +8 in NY. For reference during the 2020 cycle that was 18.6 margin at its smallest and the last polls had Biden up +30. Actual results were Biden 60.7%, Trump 37.7% so Bident +23.
I'm not saying NY is going Red but that is just another confirmation of major alarm bells. That means Trump has to be getting close to 100% republicans and 100% independents.
I think you misunderstood my point. Biden's margin of victory in a highly populated blue state such as NY with that big of swing to Trump means Trump could still lose the state but those millions of votes go into the popular vote category. Ditto for the blue wall states and even CA. Those types of percentages may not sound like a lot but when they are toted upon the popular vote board, can make a big difference.Quote:
Don't think that is possible.
Only 2 ways Trump wins the popular vote: Men turnout in numbers closer to women. 10MM more women voted then men in 2020. Women are closer to +8 Dem while Men are now closer to +10 Republican.
Or Women see that Trump is going to win and they switch to support the side they think is going to win.
Under both of those scenarios I think a landslide EC is in order.
Science Denier said:Didn't Biden get like 85% of the black vote in '2020?ImSoDumb said:
Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.
If he only gets 70% in 2024, Trump will win.
I think my point was more that if Trump makes a big dent in NY and other blue wall states, then I would expect him to gain 100k or so votes in the swing states to give him the W. I don't think it is the blue wall liking certain policies of Trump that would be unique to them but rather a general independent/moderate wanting not Biden.aggiehawg said:I think you misunderstood my point. Biden's margin of victory in a highly populated blue state such as NY with that big of swing to Trump means Trump could still lose the state but those millions of votes go into the popular vote category. Ditto for the blue wall states and even CA. Those types of percentages may not sound like a lot but when they are toted upon the popular vote board, can make a big difference.Quote:
Don't think that is possible.
Only 2 ways Trump wins the popular vote: Men turnout in numbers closer to women. 10MM more women voted then men in 2020. Women are closer to +8 Dem while Men are now closer to +10 Republican.
Or Women see that Trump is going to win and they switch to support the side they think is going to win.
Under both of those scenarios I think a landslide EC is in order.
Hillary was only up 5 million over Trump in '16 nationwide in the popular vote.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: The Economist Forecast [chance of winning]
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 21, 2024
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 67%
🟦 Biden: 33%
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 63%
🟦 Biden: 37%
.
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 59%
🟦 Biden: 41%
.
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 72%
🟦 Biden: 28%
.
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 75%
🟦 Biden: 25%
.
NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 64%… pic.twitter.com/EMHJWomxLP
WAKE UP, Read this...
— Scott Bales (@ScottBalesX) June 20, 2024
This is how they begin the steal, they show a BS Poll to make the race seem closer than it is. Do yourself a favor and look up who conducts the Fox Poll.
Get ready... Do a Grok search on these two "Polling Contributors" Beacon Researh (D) and Shaw &… https://t.co/39aXVIEJSO
I'm reminded of Rush's old comment that he got better ratings when Democrats were in office. And Murdoch's kid probably doesn't care about ratings anyway, as shown by the Tucker firing.Barnyard96 said:
I wonder what president gives Fox better ratings during their term?
Simon says Democrats will kick ass in November.
— Resolute Square (@ResoluteSquare) June 20, 2024
Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) sat down with @TheRickWilson, @stuartpstevens & @JoeTrippi this week on Strategy Session to talk about Biden's extraordinary past two weeks and predictions for Congress.
Click for full episode: pic.twitter.com/lA0nWgbAAX
I don't think there is anything that either can do for themselves that will provide a 'big boost.' Nobody is going to say 'Hey, I guess Biden is OK after all, I will ignore this inflation and these illiegals and vote for him' after watching the debate. Maybe a select few but not many.MemphisAg1 said:
Let's see how the debate goes next Thursday. Very low expectations for Biden. If he speaks well and appears competent, he could get a big boost. Trump needs to avoid the same disaster he had in his first debate in 2020.
If Biden has a gaffe, looks lost, or comes across as a cranky old man he could be toast. Especially if Trump is focused and doesn't act like an obnoxious bully by trying to talk over him constantly.
It is not some back room 'prepare for the steal!!!' Thats a bunch of nonsense. Geeze.nortex97 said:
Oh, and on the TDS-pushed/hyped Fox News poll yesterday, peeling away at the onion a bit here;WAKE UP, Read this...
— Scott Bales (@ScottBalesX) June 20, 2024
This is how they begin the steal, they show a BS Poll to make the race seem closer than it is. Do yourself a favor and look up who conducts the Fox Poll.
Get ready... Do a Grok search on these two "Polling Contributors" Beacon Researh (D) and Shaw &… https://t.co/39aXVIEJSO
Jabin said:
Aaaaand, for a completely opposite take on the polls:Simon says Democrats will kick ass in November.
— Resolute Square (@ResoluteSquare) June 20, 2024
Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) sat down with @TheRickWilson, @stuartpstevens & @JoeTrippi this week on Strategy Session to talk about Biden's extraordinary past two weeks and predictions for Congress.
Click for full episode: pic.twitter.com/lA0nWgbAAX
AgreedQuote:
What you posted was just a Democrat talking through party talking points on the economy and Biden with a bunch of men that hate Donald Trump
May fundraising total
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 21, 2024
🔴 Trump - 105 million
🔵 Biden - 61 million
FEC pic.twitter.com/iRKCXrtSRQ
I can't recall agreeing with you on much here but I do on these points.Quote:
I mentioned one last week. New Mexico. Even though there is now a poll out showing Biden ahead, it's by a much smaller margin than he won last time and a smaller margin than Clinton won in 2016. RFK is also still trying to get on ballot there. I think he well get it done. That changes the dynamics in a state where strong third party candidates do well there. As I said in an earlier post, I also believe Pete Domenicis rich daughter running for Senate in NM might help Trump. She's running on law and order and Immigration. Despite what those men said in that clip posted, these are not strong points for Biden or the Democrats. Especially in a place like New Mexico.
RFKjr is already on the ballot in New Hampshire and Michigan. In NH I think this ends of mattering because many of the democrats of New Hampshire are the RFK type of Democrats. Trumps floor in NH is 45%, he's not dropping below that number and if he ends up matching his 2016 number of 46%, things get very interesting if RFK has a strong showing in NH. In 2016, Clinton and Trump both got 46% of the vote with Johnson having a decent showing in the state. Clinton only edged out Trump by less than .5%.
Trump polling is still holding in MI. In the latest MI poll he still holds a 2 point edge on Biden in head to head. When they asked the question and included RFK, who is on the ballot in MI, Trumps margin increased to 3 points over Biden. I think MI ends up looking more like 2016 than 2020.
He needs NV polling to be real. I must admit, I'm really surprised by the strength of his numbers in NV so far. They are not behind MOE, but they are much closer to that level than I ever imagined for that state. When you dig deeper on NV numbers you do see that Biden closes the gap when undecideds are asked which way they are leaning. Undecideds break toward Biden enough to make it a dead heat race head to head. But when RFK is thrown into the mix, Trump again maintains an edge on Biden just like he does in places like Michigan.
#New general Election Poll - Montana
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 20, 2024
🔴 Trump 57% (+20)
🔵 Biden 37%
Senate
🔴 Tim Sheey 46%
🔵 John Tester (Inc) 46%
POS 🔴 B+ - 500 LV - 6/13 pic.twitter.com/F19ZKQyE3z
Why does Montana like Tester's fatass again? The fact it is that close tells me people in Montana are stupidnortex97 said:I can't recall agreeing with you on much here but I do on these points.Quote:
I mentioned one last week. New Mexico. Even though there is now a poll out showing Biden ahead, it's by a much smaller margin than he won last time and a smaller margin than Clinton won in 2016. RFK is also still trying to get on ballot there. I think he well get it done. That changes the dynamics in a state where strong third party candidates do well there. As I said in an earlier post, I also believe Pete Domenicis rich daughter running for Senate in NM might help Trump. She's running on law and order and Immigration. Despite what those men said in that clip posted, these are not strong points for Biden or the Democrats. Especially in a place like New Mexico.
RFKjr is already on the ballot in New Hampshire and Michigan. In NH I think this ends of mattering because many of the democrats of New Hampshire are the RFK type of Democrats. Trumps floor in NH is 45%, he's not dropping below that number and if he ends up matching his 2016 number of 46%, things get very interesting if RFK has a strong showing in NH. In 2016, Clinton and Trump both got 46% of the vote with Johnson having a decent showing in the state. Clinton only edged out Trump by less than .5%.
Trump polling is still holding in MI. In the latest MI poll he still holds a 2 point edge on Biden in head to head. When they asked the question and included RFK, who is on the ballot in MI, Trumps margin increased to 3 points over Biden. I think MI ends up looking more like 2016 than 2020.
He needs NV polling to be real. I must admit, I'm really surprised by the strength of his numbers in NV so far. They are not behind MOE, but they are much closer to that level than I ever imagined for that state. When you dig deeper on NV numbers you do see that Biden closes the gap when undecideds are asked which way they are leaning. Undecideds break toward Biden enough to make it a dead heat race head to head. But when RFK is thrown into the mix, Trump again maintains an edge on Biden just like he does in places like Michigan.
(Separately), Trump's gonna have to pull Sheeh over the line;#New general Election Poll - Montana
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 20, 2024
🔴 Trump 57% (+20)
🔵 Biden 37%
Senate
🔴 Tim Sheey 46%
🔵 John Tester (Inc) 46%
POS 🔴 B+ - 500 LV - 6/13 pic.twitter.com/F19ZKQyE3z
2023NCAggies said:Why does Montana like Tester's fatass again? The fact it is that close tells me people in Montana are stupidnortex97 said:I can't recall agreeing with you on much here but I do on these points.Quote:
I mentioned one last week. New Mexico. Even though there is now a poll out showing Biden ahead, it's by a much smaller margin than he won last time and a smaller margin than Clinton won in 2016. RFK is also still trying to get on ballot there. I think he well get it done. That changes the dynamics in a state where strong third party candidates do well there. As I said in an earlier post, I also believe Pete Domenicis rich daughter running for Senate in NM might help Trump. She's running on law and order and Immigration. Despite what those men said in that clip posted, these are not strong points for Biden or the Democrats. Especially in a place like New Mexico.
RFKjr is already on the ballot in New Hampshire and Michigan. In NH I think this ends of mattering because many of the democrats of New Hampshire are the RFK type of Democrats. Trumps floor in NH is 45%, he's not dropping below that number and if he ends up matching his 2016 number of 46%, things get very interesting if RFK has a strong showing in NH. In 2016, Clinton and Trump both got 46% of the vote with Johnson having a decent showing in the state. Clinton only edged out Trump by less than .5%.
Trump polling is still holding in MI. In the latest MI poll he still holds a 2 point edge on Biden in head to head. When they asked the question and included RFK, who is on the ballot in MI, Trumps margin increased to 3 points over Biden. I think MI ends up looking more like 2016 than 2020.
He needs NV polling to be real. I must admit, I'm really surprised by the strength of his numbers in NV so far. They are not behind MOE, but they are much closer to that level than I ever imagined for that state. When you dig deeper on NV numbers you do see that Biden closes the gap when undecideds are asked which way they are leaning. Undecideds break toward Biden enough to make it a dead heat race head to head. But when RFK is thrown into the mix, Trump again maintains an edge on Biden just like he does in places like Michigan.
(Separately), Trump's gonna have to pull Sheeh over the line;#New general Election Poll - Montana
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 20, 2024
🔴 Trump 57% (+20)
🔵 Biden 37%
Senate
🔴 Tim Sheey 46%
🔵 John Tester (Inc) 46%
POS 🔴 B+ - 500 LV - 6/13 pic.twitter.com/F19ZKQyE3z
MAGA/Trump backed Senate candidates do not do well outside of very red states, and even there they poll below other Republican candidates. Having Trump hang around your neck is a net negative in the general election.2023NCAggies said:
I cannot believe how bad all the Republican senate candidates are doing. Pathetic
LOL. Hyperbole much? Mondale only won one state and DC. You are claiming Trump will only win one state?Quote:
As soon as Biden is replaced, then Trump will be looking at a 1984 Mondale style loss.