Muh Polls

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Rapier108
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 6:20p, 6/19/24
Barnyard96 said:
Trump leads the average.
Won't be that way for long as soon as all of the polls from right after the trial fall off.

I guess then we'll be back to all the polls are fake since Trump isn't leading.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Rapier108 • 6:26p, 6/19/24
AG
That last sentence reads like sarcasm.
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SA68AG
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 6:29p, 6/19/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
Trump leads the average.
We'll see if the average holds up.

The last couple of polls have shown independent support has dropped off enough due to the conviction to tip the scales to Biden.

Of course that's at the national level. It will be interesting to see what happens in the key swing states.

The debates and Trump's VP selection could decide the election.
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Artorias
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In reply to Rapier108 • 10:23p, 6/19/24
AG
Rapier108 said:
Barnyard96 said:
Trump leads the average.
Won't be that way for long as soon as all of the polls from right after the trial fall off.

I guess then we'll be back to all the polls are fake since Trump isn't leading.
The polls tightening and/or Biden taking the lead in national polls was as predictable as the sun rising. Like clockwork. Even though every individual metric favors Trump heavily, the national "polls" will show a close race so when Biden wins surprisingly, they can say "the polls were right!"
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Rockdoc
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10:43p, 6/19/24
AG
TDS consumes some people. Sad.
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LMCane
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6:54a, 6/20/24
95% of the Trumpers on here have been crowing for months about how awful Biden is and how he is going down

then we have reality:

Biden has lead over Trump

[Nikki Haley is not in the polls, and your attempt to bring her into the thread to disparage Trump is trolling. Keep it up and earn some time off. Conversation on the candidates in the polls is relevant -- Staff]
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LMCane
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7:01a, 6/20/24
people will laugh at how stupid the Republican voters were during the 2020s. it would be like the idiots running Mike Dukakis in 1984 and 1988.

Last THREE National polls with a 34 trillion dollar debt, two major wars, 10 million illegals, highest inflation in decades, increasing unemployment:

Biden +2
Biden +1
Tied

great work!

Biden is leading even BEFORE he spends billions and cheats..
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Drahknor03
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In reply to LMCane • 7:04a, 6/20/24
AG
Meanwhile, if Biden is only up 8 in NY, Trump's hitting the sack before 10pm as POTUS-elect on Election night.



My point from earlier stands. A three point movement in any given poll is statistical noise. Trends matter. Earlier this week had a Reuters poll with a 3-point shift to Trump. If Trump is down 2 or less nationally on Election Day, he is going to win the White House.
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Tea Party
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In reply to LMCane • 7:19a, 6/20/24
LMCane said:
people will laugh at how stupid the Republican voters were during the 2020s. it would be like the idiots running Mike Dukakis in 1984 and 1988.

Last THREE National polls with a 34 trillion dollar debt, two major wars, 10 million illegals, highest inflation in decades, increasing unemployment:

Biden +2
Biden +1
Tied

great work!

Biden is leading even BEFORE he spends billions and cheats..
Your take away is to say Republican voters are stupid when with all of the issues stated above you don't connect the dots that the Democrat voters are the ones voting for continuing our problems?

I know Trump is the boogeyman to a lot of people, but at least be honest that the Republicans could nominate Jesus and there is an overwhelming amount of D voters that still would pull the lever for any Democrat instead. We have a D voter problem, not a R nominee problem.
Learn about the Texas Nationalist Movement
https://tnm.me
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nortex97
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 7:25a, 6/20/24
AG
Biden won NY by 23 in 2020. That's how much the electorate has shifted, imho.
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Drahknor03
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7:48a, 6/20/24
AG
I'm a big believer that A poll is noise, but THE polls tell a story. Even with yesterday's FoxNews poll, this is the current story:

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Rockdoc
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7:53a, 6/20/24
AG
To my old and untrained eyes, it seems the polls are all over the place and heavily manipulated. You guys may have an idea but I have no idea what the actual polling truth is right now.
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nortex97
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In reply to Rockdoc • 7:58a, 6/20/24
AG
It's pretty obvious the TDS and Democrats among us are grumpy about how different the polls look now vs. 2020.
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Drahknor03
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7:58a, 6/20/24
AG
Right now Trump is winning. Everyone with skin in the game says Trump is winning. Election data prognosticators lose their jobs when they screw up. When Harry Enten, Dave Wasserman, John Couvillon, Larry Sabato, and Nate Silver are all saying the same thing, that Trump is currently winning, Trump's probably currently winning.
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agsalaska
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In reply to Rockdoc • 8:27a, 6/20/24
AG
Welcome back!!
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agsalaska
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 8:29a, 6/20/24
AG
Drahknor03 said:
Right now Trump is winning. Everyone with skin in the game says Trump is winning. Election data prognosticators lose their jobs when they screw up. When Harry Enten, Dave Wasserman, John Couvillon, Larry Sabato, and Nate Silver are all saying the same thing, that Trump is currently winning, Trump's probably currently winning.


No doubt he is winning.

It is tightening somewhat which I think most of us expected, but he is winning.

The FoxNews poll is within the margin of error of the last FoxNews poll. Kind of a silly thing to be spiking footballs over.
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Rockdoc
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In reply to agsalaska • 8:47a, 6/20/24
AG
agsalaska said:
Welcome back!!

You too. You were right!
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Monkeypoxfighter
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8:53a, 6/20/24
With the Democrats running the worst candidate in a generation or more, there is no logical reason it should be this close. Then again, there's no logical reason for his opponent to be the worst candidate the republicans could have come up with, but here we are.
It only took me a year to figure out this place is nuts!
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Monkeypoxfighter • 8:55a, 6/20/24
AG
Monkeypoxfighter said:
With the Democrats running the worst candidate in a generation or more, there is no logical reason it should be this close. Then again, there's no logical reason for his opponent to be the worst candidate the republicans could have come up with, but here we are.

It's amazing this is what we're looking at isn't it. American people deserve better.
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LMCane
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 8:56a, 6/20/24
what is the second blue line?

the actual vote on election day versus the poll for June 20, 2016?
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LMCane
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In reply to Rockdoc • 8:57a, 6/20/24
Rockdoc said:
Monkeypoxfighter said:
With the Democrats running the worst candidate in a generation or more, there is no logical reason it should be this close. Then again, there's no logical reason for his opponent to be the worst candidate the republicans could have come up with, but here we are.

It's amazing this is what we're looking at isn't it. American people deserve better.

No they don't.

if the American people deserved better- they would VOTE AND NOMINATE BETTER CANDIDATES

this is absolutely what we deserve.

want better leaders?

elect better leaders!
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Rockdoc
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In reply to LMCane • 9:03a, 6/20/24
AG
Sorry, I guess we just have different attitudes.
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Drahknor03
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In reply to LMCane • 9:50a, 6/20/24
AG
Yes. Do you believe that this time Trump is going to do worse on Election Day than he is doing today? Because we've got two solid data points that says he does better than expected when he's on the ballot.
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Drahknor03
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10:19a, 6/20/24
AG
Trump in bed as POTUS-Elect by 10PM-kind of numbers:

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SA68AG
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10:37a, 6/20/24
AG
It's pretty clear to me that Trump's conviction has cost him a couple of points primarily from heretofore undecided independents.

The question going forward is can he get any of them back or can he sway some of the remaining undecideds.

Going forward we know the media is going to go all out to shield Biden and paint Trump as the most dangerous villain of all time.

Major events that we know will take place before the election that probably will affect some voters.

1. Debates
2. VP nominee
3. Sentencing for felony offenses

Possible but not likely events that could have a dramatic effect

1. Supreme Court reversal of NY felonies
2. Terrorist event
3. Biden health event

Can Trump stay on message and articulate his plans effectively enough to counter the fear mongering and lies of the media and Biden administration or is he going to moan about the last election and get sidetracked on personal attacks ?

What should be a runaway Republican victory is going to be very close.
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nortex97
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1:56p, 6/20/24
AG
Nice.

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SoyTanLento
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1:58p, 6/20/24
Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.

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Barnyard96
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 2:01p, 6/20/24
AG
Biden only getting 70% is pretty big dent

ETA, is this a yougov online registered voters poll?
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Science Denier
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 3:59p, 6/20/24
AG
ImSoDumb said:
Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.

Didn't Biden get like 85% of the black vote in '2020?

If he only gets 70% in 2024, Trump will win.
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VP at Pierce and Pierce
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In reply to Science Denier • 4:02p, 6/20/24
Science Denier said:
ImSoDumb said:
Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.

Didn't Biden get like 85% of the black vote in '2020?

If he only gets 70% in 2024, Trump will win.
You are not factoring the millions of illegals that will be voting for Biden in 2024 to offset that 15% loss.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to VP at Pierce and Pierce • 4:17p, 6/20/24
AG
This will go to the supreme court.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Science Denier • 4:56p, 6/20/24
Science Denier said:
ImSoDumb said:
Look at that Trump isn't making a dent in the Black vote like some experts here thought.

Didn't Biden get like 85% of the black vote in '2020?

If he only gets 70% in 2024, Trump will win.
A classic self own by ImSoDumb. Fitting.
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texagbeliever
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5:00p, 6/20/24
Back to Polls

Siena College poll has Biden up +8 in NY. For reference during the 2020 cycle that was 18.6 margin at its smallest and the last polls had Biden up +30. Actual results were Biden 60.7%, Trump 37.7% so Bident +23.

I'm not saying NY is going Red but that is just another confirmation of major alarm bells. That means Trump has to be getting close to 100% republicans and 100% independents.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to texagbeliever • 5:05p, 6/20/24
AG
texagbeliever said:
Back to Polls

Siena College poll has Biden up +8 in NY. For reference during the 2020 cycle that was 18.6 margin at its smallest and the last polls had Biden up +30. Actual results were Biden 60.7%, Trump 37.7% so Bident +23.

I'm not saying NY is going Red but that is just another confirmation of major alarm bells. That means Trump has to be getting close to 100% republicans and 100% independents.
I was thinking the other day if Trump won the popular vote but lost in the EC?
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agsalaska
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In reply to aggiehawg • 5:12p, 6/20/24
AG
aggiehawg said:
texagbeliever said:
Back to Polls

Siena College poll has Biden up +8 in NY. For reference during the 2020 cycle that was 18.6 margin at its smallest and the last polls had Biden up +30. Actual results were Biden 60.7%, Trump 37.7% so Bident +23.

I'm not saying NY is going Red but that is just another confirmation of major alarm bells. That means Trump has to be getting close to 100% republicans and 100% independents.
I was thinking the other day if Trump won the popular vote but lost in the EC?


In the abstract that would not be the worst thing in the world.(other than four more years of Biden). The electoral college is one of if not the most important institution this country has. And it has been attacked for years by the Democrats. Other than the dumb dumb 'muh fraud' idiots, the rest of the Republicans would not delegitimize the winner of the electoral college because of a win in the popular vote like the Dems have. At least I don't think so.
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