You know Biden and the Democrats are disenchanted with the odds of him being re-elected when they move to stop the publication and wagering on odds of Biden and the Democrats winning re-election.2023NCAggies said:Nevada is going Trump, it has been moving Republican since Reid died. RFK will help Trump in this state as well, by a lot. Same in Arizonanortex97 said:
Trump essentially cruising on the gambling market:2024 Presidential Election Winner - Odds by @Polymarket
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) May 20, 2024
🔴 Trump 53% (+ 8 from 2 months ago)
🔵 Biden 41% (-4 from 2 months ago)
Total Bet - $129 million dollars.https://t.co/UJibqCB474 pic.twitter.com/aySTxCQd9C
Nevada the only battleground really that looks at this point like it is going to be a 'tough pull:'#New General Election Poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) May 22, 2024
Pennsylvania
🔴 Trump 48% (+2)
🔵 Biden 46%
Arizona
🔴 Trump 49% (+5)
🔵 Biden 44%
Wisconsin
🔴 Trump 47% (+1)
🔵 Biden 46%
North Carolina
🔴 Trump 49% (+7)
🔵 Biden 42%
Georgia
🔴 Trump 47% (+3)
🔵 Biden 44%
Nevada
🔴 Trump 47%
🔵 Biden…
I would think the unions around Vegas would strongly want Xiden gone.
Would like to see some Omaha polls, Trump won that in 2016. Hopefully he does not have to depend on that 1 point.
Now lets look at Maine, Trump has a decent chance to win 3 electoral votes from there. The last poll done was in February so this is very flimsy, but as you can see he is up in Maine by 6 pts in general statewide and he is up huge for the single rural electoral vote
Could we see Trump win 3 pts from Maine?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/maine/
https://www.actionnetwork.com/general/federal-regulator-seeks-ban-on-election-award-show-bettingQuote:
A federal regulator has voted on Friday to move forward on a plan that would attempt to ban wagering on elections, award shows and some sporting events.
The provision would ban specific betting exchanges, which typically hold markets that aren't based on actions on the field such as who the next coach of a team will be and who will win an award voted on by third-party judges.
Some of these services include PredictIt, which allows the public to bet on the outcome of elections and whether laws will be enacted by the state or federal government. Wagers on sports with traditional sportsbooks such as DraftKings and FanDuel would be unaffected, although those books do not host markets such as political elections in the United States.
The vote on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) would put the proposed regulation up for public review, and the proposal won't be official until the commissioners approve a final version. A vote may take months to come into fruition, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.oh no said:
A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.
It would have been a BRILLIANT move if Trump asked for RFK to be in the debates. He still should try to demand it.LMCane said:
if we had an excellent debater such as Cruz, Romney, DeSantis, Haley
the GOP should be begging to include Robert Kennedy in the debates to take more disaffacted Biden voters.
as we are saddled with Trump, they likely will not want Kennedy showing up the 80 year olds.
New @CookPolitical (+BSG/GS Strategies) swing state polls: Trump leads, w/ third party candidates pulling slightly more from Biden. Cost of living by far top concern, and 66% think Biden won't be able to finish a second term. https://t.co/QAGWmHfV4x pic.twitter.com/y4gAdYoATs
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) May 23, 2024
I also wonder if he has that much support in urban areas there might be an increase in number of whistle blowers to expose something early on although it depends on who is investigating it. That's where it gets tricky...might be better off providing each city Republican friendly authorities they can contact directly.2023NCAggies said:Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.oh no said:
A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.
80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia
That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something
Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future
He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as well
nortex97 said:
I Biden wouldn't want both of them on the stage with him. He'd probably get confused why Ted Kennedy was there.
Quote:
The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there's a sign his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks: His lead is built on gains among voters who aren't paying close attention to politics, who don't follow traditional news and who don't regularly vote.
Disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate are driving the polling results --and the story line-- about the election.
President Biden has actually led the last three New York Times/Siena national polls among those who voted in the 2020 election, even as he has trailed among registered voters overall. And looking back over the last few years, almost all of Trump's gains came from these less engaged voters.
2023NCAggies said:Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.oh no said:
A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.
80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia
That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something
Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future
He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as well
I'm so glad the NYT is here to inform the masses not to worry; it's only stupid unenlightened people who won't vote for the senile socialist candidateOldArmy71 said:
I know nothing about polls.Quote:
His lead is built on gains among voters who aren't paying close attention to politics, who don't follow traditional news and who don't regularly vote.
Disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate are driving the polling results --and the story line-- about the election.
almost all of Trump's gains came from these less engaged voters.
I watched just about all of the Bronx rally and all of the shots of the crowd. Somebody in his campaign pulled the 25,000 number out of his ass.2023NCAggies said:Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.oh no said:
A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.
80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia
That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something
Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future
He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as well
OldArmy71 said:
I know nothing about polls.
I subscribe to the NYT for its games and recently took them up on a good deal to subscribe to the paper, though I hate to give them my money.
Today they had an article essentially saying that it is possible that Trump's lead is based largely on voters who traditionally are not engaged politically and who do not usually vote. Those votes are "soft," I guess is what they're saying.Quote:
The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there's a sign his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks: His lead is built on gains among voters who aren't paying close attention to politics, who don't follow traditional news and who don't regularly vote.
Disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate are driving the polling results --and the story line-- about the election.
President Biden has actually led the last three New York Times/Siena national polls among those who voted in the 2020 election, even as he has trailed among registered voters overall. And looking back over the last few years, almost all of Trump's gains came from these less engaged voters.
I was fooled by the polls in 2016 (thankfully) and in 2020 (sadly), so I don't know what to think anymore.
rgag12 said:2023NCAggies said:Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.oh no said:
A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.
80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia
That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something
Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future
He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as well
For years the state with the most republicans was CA, might still be. I bet if Trump went to Los Angeles he'd have a massive rally too. Still will get crushed there.
I agree with the poster you responded to. You're falling into the 2020 trap.
This is the way it was when we were growing up.Quote:
I heard a black lady being interviewed the other day that said "we want jobs, not welfare." While that's awesome, I'm not so sure that's the prevailing mindset amongst all welfare recipients (regardless of race).
Doesn't look like 25k2023NCAggies said:Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.oh no said:
A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.
80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia
That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something
Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future
He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as well
Original footage. Comments are interesting. pic.twitter.com/PqRohLuf09
— Sandy (@sandiechill) May 24, 2024
NEWS
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) May 24, 2024
Stephen Schwarzman, the Chairman and CEO of Blackstone, says he has changed his mind and is now backing Trump in 2024.
Schwarzman says this will include financial support for Trump and other Republican candidates.
Schwarzman tells Axios that the rise in antisemitism is… pic.twitter.com/JEiK6QFBpl
halfastros81 said:
I don't understand why Trump is spending valuable time in NY or TX at this point. Maybe related to fundraising ? why not concentrate efforts in potential swing states? Both of those states are quite predictable. I hear arguments that he could swing NY… I simply don't believe it.
Make Biden defend his own ground.halfastros81 said:
I don't understand why Trump is spending valuable time in NY or TX at this point.
Do you think Biden could draw a crowd like that...even in his home state? If yes, you're delusional.ImSoDumb said:Doesn't look like 25k2023NCAggies said:Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.oh no said:
A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.
80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia
That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something
Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future
He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as wellOriginal footage. Comments are interesting. pic.twitter.com/PqRohLuf09
— Sandy (@sandiechill) May 24, 2024
you don't know why Trump has been in NY lately? Srsly?halfastros81 said:
I don't understand why Trump is spending valuable time in NY
Why not? It gets him on the news. People are going to make a big deal on this, free advertisement. And it is early, no reason not to test the waters. It is not a waste of time. I believe he was in Texas for the NRA thing, not to campaignhalfastros81 said:
I don't understand why Trump is spending valuable time in NY or TX at this point. Maybe related to fundraising ? why not concentrate efforts in potential swing states? Both of those states are quite predictable. I hear arguments that he could swing NY… I simply don't believe it.
Biden is from Wilmington DE, a suburb 30 mins outside of Philly PA. He couldn't get more than two dozen of his 81 million supporters to show up at his rally in Philly four years ago.Prosperdick said:
Do you think Biden could draw a crowd like that...even in his home state? If yes, you're delusional.
And there is a lot of…money in both places. Plus, Democrats (in a robe/white house) are making him spend time in NY.Ellis Wyatt said:Make Biden defend his own ground.halfastros81 said:
I don't understand why Trump is spending valuable time in NY or TX at this point.
Prosperdick said:Do you think Biden could draw a crowd like that...even in his home state? If yes, you're delusional.ImSoDumb said:Doesn't look like 25k2023NCAggies said:Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.oh no said:
A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.
80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia
That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something
Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future
He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as wellOriginal footage. Comments are interesting. pic.twitter.com/PqRohLuf09
— Sandy (@sandiechill) May 24, 2024
nortex97 said:
Not really a poll, but there are a small set of wealthy/powerful Jewish Americans whose opinions really do matter, imho, in the campaign. He's one of them.NEWS
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) May 24, 2024
Stephen Schwarzman, the Chairman and CEO of Blackstone, says he has changed his mind and is now backing Trump in 2024.
Schwarzman says this will include financial support for Trump and other Republican candidates.
Schwarzman tells Axios that the rise in antisemitism is… pic.twitter.com/JEiK6QFBpl
This is shocking to me.
I think the point is that while it is nice that the Trumpers are slavishly devoted to DJT and will follow him anywhere-Rockdoc said:
You're worried about his crowd size? Really? You just sound worried period.
Overhead shot of the Trump rally in the Bronx shows crowd size was much smaller than MAGA world is boasting about. This clip is from New York’s ABC7 11 pm newscast, which is why there is an 11:09 time stamp on it. pic.twitter.com/pBCbhOi51y
— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) May 24, 2024