2023NCAggies said:

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oh no said:

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A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.

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Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.

80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia

That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something

Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future

He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as well

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For years the state with the most republicans was CA, might still be. I bet if Trump went to Los Angeles he'd have a massive rally too. Still will get crushed there.

I agree with the poster you responded to. You're falling into the 2020 trap.

OldArmy71 said:

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I know nothing about polls.

Quote:

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His lead is built on gains among voters who aren't paying close attention to politics, who don't follow traditional news and who don't regularly vote.

Disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate are driving the polling results --and the story line-- about the election.

almost all of Trump's gains came from these less engaged voters.

---

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I'm so glad the NYT is here to inform the masses not to worry; it's only stupid unenlightened people who won't vote for the senile socialist candidate

Let's explore this question: How motivated are these polled Trump voters?

Here is a yougov poll Link
On slide 31 on the issue of Inflation/Prices 93% of people who say they are voting for Trump consider this a Very Important issue. Then 6% think it is somewhat important. That to me suggests that people voting for Trump are pocketbook voting. That is highly motivating.

Go on to slide 32, the biggest issues ranking. All 3 of the biggest issues for Trump indicated voters in 2024 are also the overall 3 biggest issues from the poll: Inflation/prices, Immigration, Jobs & the Economy.
Let's break that down further.
Inflation/prices: This is a winner for Trump and if this stays the number 1 issue hard to see Trump not winning. There doesn't appear to be any magic bullet that will fix this.
Immigration: Trump should only look to invoke this to rally his base.
Jobs & the Economy: Another winner for Trump. Similar to inflation/prices. This also means that Americans aren't buying the High stock market value = Great economy. All time highs for NASDAQ. That is a bad sign.

Flip side is Biden voters biggest 4 issues: Inflation (that is a bad thing for him), Health care, Climate Change & the environment and Abortion.

Then looking at independents only without leaners (top 5 issues):
Inflation/Prices (27%), Jobs & Economy (16%), Health Care (9%), Climate Change (7%), and Immigration (6%).
3 of the 5 biggest issues are more pro-Trump among independents. As a cumulative percentage that is 49% (the top 3 issues of general public so lots more air time) for pro-Trump issues and only 16% for Biden.

2023NCAggies said:

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oh no said:

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A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.

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Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.

80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia

That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something

Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future

He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as well

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I watched just about all of the Bronx rally and all of the shots of the crowd. Somebody in his campaign pulled the 25,000 number out of his ass.

There's no way it was even close to that. Just looking at the crowd and how deep it was around Trump I think it was closer to 1,500. Maybe 2,000. As far as all the blacks there, I'd guess about 5%.

Trump was in fine form. I'm always amazed at how a man his age can go non-stop without a script for 1-2 hours. He seemed a little more focused on issues than usual which was good. Such a strong contrast to low energy Joe.

OldArmy71 said:

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I know nothing about polls.

I subscribe to the NYT for its games and recently took them up on a good deal to subscribe to the paper, though I hate to give them my money.

Today they had an article essentially saying that it is possible that Trump's lead is based largely on voters who traditionally are not engaged politically and who do not usually vote. Those votes are "soft," I guess is what they're saying.

Quote:

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The polls have shown Donald Trump with an edge for eight straight months, but there's a sign his advantage might not be quite as stable as it looks: His lead is built on gains among voters who aren't paying close attention to politics, who don't follow traditional news and who don't regularly vote.

Disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate are driving the polling results --and the story line-- about the election.

President Biden has actually led the last three New York Times/Siena national polls among those who voted in the 2020 election, even as he has trailed among registered voters overall. And looking back over the last few years, almost all of Trump's gains came from these less engaged voters.

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I was fooled by the polls in 2016 (thankfully) and in 2020 (sadly), so I don't know what to think anymore.

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So there is a possibility that some of them are soft.

But I want to ask you in your last statement. How were you fooled in 2016 and in 2020. In 2016 the poles clearly showed a Trump win as a real possibility and the 2020 results were expected.

Maybe it's the people you read and not the polls? Because if you were paying attention to the polls 2020 and even 2022 were clear as day and 2016 was not a statistical anomaly.

Just curious

rgag12 said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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oh no said:

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A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.

---

Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.

80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia

That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something

Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future

He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as well

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For years the state with the most republicans was CA, might still be. I bet if Trump went to Los Angeles he'd have a massive rally too. Still will get crushed there.

I agree with the poster you responded to. You're falling into the 2020 trap.

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Bronx ain't got many and it's boxed in by city. Way different than some place in Cali

That said, your option is legit

But we should still go to these places and fight for their vote relentlessly

If Dems lose these areas, they're screwed

Keep trying

Minorities are starting to notice and that block is starting to shatter. Keep pulling it apart. Don't stop

In ten years you never know. Rs keep pushing like I said to do, we may have 35% of the black vote

It has to happen. And it's starting to shift

Byron Donald's would only help. Hope he or Rubio are the guys at VP

poor people who want free stuff and the political elite are the only ones who benefit (at least initially, theoretically) from socialism. poor people who want free stuff should vote for the free stuff- tax those stupid workers/earners more so i can get the equity i deserve for free. poor people get socialist politicians in power. it's a vicious cycle that incentivizes endless out of control taxation intentionally impoverishing more and more of your people until the music stops- when the middle and upper middle non-political elites are gone and everything crumbles when the whole populous is impoverished.

if you're going to go into poor communities and tell them to stop voting for free stuff, you better have a very convincing argument illustrating that this country is built off hard work, competition, and merit - and the American dream of providing for yourself and your family can still be possible- you have to demonstrate that lowering taxes and regulations on business and industry makes this a better place for growth and investment so the opportunities to work and earn for yourself are there and the demotivating factors that disincentivize entrepreneurship and careers are gone. the high taxes and burdensome regulatory environments of big government socialism encourages investments in other countries away from here and fewer opportunities. I think some of that messaging is starting to get through to some of them.

I heard a black lady being interviewed the other day that said "we want jobs, not welfare." While that's awesome, I'm not so sure that's the prevailing mindset amongst all welfare recipients (regardless of race).

To put it frankly, most of them just aren't going to work. They've been used to living with the bare minimum via welfare, for free and are content carrying on that lifestyle until death. That mindset is so freaking crazy to me (no ambition, no desire to better yourself, etc), but I think the government is largely to blame for that as well.

Sometimes my dog gets mad at me and refuses to eat the same dry, boring kibble over and over again. He has the freedom to go outside and catch a bird or squirrel or something more tasty, but no longer has the ambition. He's been so spoiled and accustomed to simply walking to his bowl and eating whatever I give him, that he's too lazy now to do anything else. As such, instead of improving his situation, he pouts for a while until he finally gets hungry enough, and eventually eats his kibble.

That's what we've got going on here.

No-one gives a **** about polls, especially when they are given to one demographic most of the time.

Quote:

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I heard a black lady being interviewed the other day that said "we want jobs, not welfare." While that's awesome, I'm not so sure that's the prevailing mindset amongst all welfare recipients (regardless of race).

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This is the way it was when we were growing up.

Those that needed it tried to be on welfare as little a time as possible.

Now, many just live off of it and not scrimping I might add.

When Democrats celebrate high numbers on welfare they have it backwards.

You want as few as possible on it.

Biden's America sucks.

2023NCAggies said:

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oh no said:

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A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.

---

Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.

80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia

That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something

Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future

He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as well

---

Doesn't look like 25k

Original footage. Comments are interesting. pic.twitter.com/PqRohLuf09

— Sandy (@sandiechill) May 24, 2024

You're worried about his crowd size? Really? You just sound worried period.

I don't understand why Trump is spending valuable time in NY or TX at this point. Maybe related to fundraising ? why not concentrate efforts in potential swing states? Both of those states are quite predictable. I hear arguments that he could swing NY… I simply don't believe it.

Not really a poll, but there are a small set of wealthy/powerful Jewish Americans whose opinions really do matter, imho, in the campaign. He's one of them.

NEWS

Stephen Schwarzman, the Chairman and CEO of Blackstone, says he has changed his mind and is now backing Trump in 2024.

Schwarzman says this will include financial support for Trump and other Republican candidates.

Schwarzman tells Axios that the rise in antisemitism is… pic.twitter.com/JEiK6QFBpl

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) May 24, 2024

This is shocking to me.

halfastros81 said:

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I don't understand why Trump is spending valuable time in NY or TX at this point. Maybe related to fundraising ? why not concentrate efforts in potential swing states? Both of those states are quite predictable. I hear arguments that he could swing NY… I simply don't believe it.

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They see the video in the swing states too.

halfastros81 said:

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I don't understand why Trump is spending valuable time in NY or TX at this point.

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Make Biden defend his own ground.

ImSoDumb said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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oh no said:

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A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.

---

Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.

80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia

That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something

Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future

He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as well

---

Doesn't look like 25k

Original footage. Comments are interesting. pic.twitter.com/PqRohLuf09

— Sandy (@sandiechill) May 24, 2024

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Do you think Biden could draw a crowd like that...even in his home state? If yes, you're delusional.

halfastros81 said:

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I don't understand why Trump is spending valuable time in NY

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you don't know why Trump has been in NY lately? Srsly?

halfastros81 said:

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I don't understand why Trump is spending valuable time in NY or TX at this point. Maybe related to fundraising ? why not concentrate efforts in potential swing states? Both of those states are quite predictable. I hear arguments that he could swing NY… I simply don't believe it.

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Why not? It gets him on the news. People are going to make a big deal on this, free advertisement. And it is early, no reason not to test the waters. It is not a waste of time. I believe he was in Texas for the NRA thing, not to campaign

I do however think you are correct, he needs to spend the majority of his time in the swing states.

He has a lot more states he can win this election though. Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia. That added to the other usual seven

Will be interesting to see how he spreads it around

Prosperdick said:

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Do you think Biden could draw a crowd like that...even in his home state? If yes, you're delusional.

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Biden is from Wilmington DE, a suburb 30 mins outside of Philly PA. He couldn't get more than two dozen of his 81 million supporters to show up at his rally in Philly four years ago.

Ellis Wyatt said:

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halfastros81 said:

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I don't understand why Trump is spending valuable time in NY or TX at this point.

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Make Biden defend his own ground.

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And there is a lot of…money in both places. Plus, Democrats (in a robe/white house) are making him spend time in NY.

Prosperdick said:

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ImSoDumb said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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oh no said:

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A massive disparity in people at rallies and public enthusiasm doesn't equate to the number mass mailed ballots counted when the process lacks controls and results are predetermined though. Seen this story already before. As Joe Stalin and Joe Biden both said, it's who counts the votes.

---

Um he pulled 25k in the Bronx. Big Cities cheat, but if he is pulling these people in, that area will be harder to cheat in.

80+k in New Jersey and now 25k in the Bronx. He can probably go in to inner Philly, Harlam, surrounding suburbs in bigger cities and pull a good portion of support. Hell go in to Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and North Virginia

That many people in the Bronx, sorry to burst your bubble but that says something

Republicans might not get much support in these areas for a reason, we never go try. You start pulling over 20% in these area and it is over. Also you can keep working on turning it redder in the future

He has the support of a lot of Unions and they are a huge part of the city and state. People up there obviously hate the immigrant invasion as well

---

Doesn't look like 25k

Original footage. Comments are interesting. pic.twitter.com/PqRohLuf09

— Sandy (@sandiechill) May 24, 2024

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Do you think Biden could draw a crowd like that...even in his home state? If yes, you're delusional.

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He said nothing about Biden. His post was about Trump and the crowd he drew.

nortex97 said:

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Not really a poll, but there are a small set of wealthy/powerful Jewish Americans whose opinions really do matter, imho, in the campaign. He's one of them.

NEWS

Stephen Schwarzman, the Chairman and CEO of Blackstone, says he has changed his mind and is now backing Trump in 2024.

Schwarzman says this will include financial support for Trump and other Republican candidates.

Schwarzman tells Axios that the rise in antisemitism is… pic.twitter.com/JEiK6QFBpl

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) May 24, 2024

This is shocking to me.

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These are potentially some really wild shifts we are seeing. Really wild.

Blows my mind.

come on man!!

the fact that Donald Trump brought in 900 white people to the Bronx shows he will win an election in a country of 330 million people!!

Every Trumper knows this!

Just look at how it worked in 2018, 2020, 2022!!

Rockdoc said:

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You're worried about his crowd size? Really? You just sound worried period.

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I think the point is that while it is nice that the Trumpers are slavishly devoted to DJT and will follow him anywhere-

having 1100 people at a rally doesn't mean ANYTHING about actually winning a national election requiring 270 electoral votes.

Overhead shot of the Trump rally in the Bronx shows crowd size was much smaller than MAGA world is boasting about. This clip is from New York’s ABC7 11 pm newscast, which is why there is an 11:09 time stamp on it. pic.twitter.com/pBCbhOi51y

— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) May 24, 2024

How's that Lincoln Project going?

You're as bad as Eric, let that sink in.

Its fait to argue the size embellishments.

The point is Trump is gaining on minorities and this is just a small example of that.

But hey if you dont know who to vote for, then you aint black.

These sort of 'gambling' markets or whatever one calls them are sort of the equivalent imho to futures trading, showing a larger than real shift in the market valuations. Still, this is interesting/good news:

.@Polymarket - Presidential Election Winner

April 18
🟦 Biden 45% (+2)
🟥 Trump 43%
.
May 27
🟥 Trump 56% (+19)
🟦 Biden 37%

Net 21 point swing towards Trump https://t.co/D4nhNtXdZR https://t.co/IPZ45EPnDQ pic.twitter.com/1Cys5p0xpv

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 27, 2024

And again, I think it's more 'correct' to think such shifts reflect the reality of the states that matter, not national polls:

For better or worse, the popular vote isn't how we decide elections in the US. In 2012, Obama polled ~2 points better in the tipping-point states than in the national popular vote. In 2024, Biden is underperforming national polls by 2-3 points in the tipping-point states. https://t.co/mZqolVB3CN

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 23, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris is the favorite of swing state voters to replace President Joe Biden if he were to drop out of the 2024 presidential race, according to a recent poll. MORE: https://t.co/7v65VjVEJu pic.twitter.com/w3hECQHzGS

— NEWSMAX (@NEWSMAX) May 26, 2024

Republicans (or at least both of us) have at times lamented the nomination of DJT, but how hilarious would it be if it's him vs. Veepthroat as candidates in November?

Rapier108 said:

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Vice President Kamala Harris is the favorite of swing state voters to replace President Joe Biden if he were to drop out of the 2024 presidential race, according to a recent poll. MORE: https://t.co/7v65VjVEJu pic.twitter.com/w3hECQHzGS

— NEWSMAX (@NEWSMAX) May 26, 2024

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I hope it's her. Trump would win big time

The only person that can save Dems is Michael Obama. Would she do it? Idk I hope not.

I dont think she could do it. America does not want a woman as president. If the dems replace biden, i think it'd be w/ newsome. But i think biden stays and Trump takes the W.

AggieVictor10 said:

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America does not want a woman as president.

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Wrong. Again and again and again.

AggieVictor10 said:

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I dont think she could do it. America does not want a woman as president. If the dems replace biden, i think it'd be w/ newsome. But i think biden stays and Trump takes the W.

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Identity politics has cost the Dems dearly.

If you're a Black woman, are you going to make any effort to vote for Newsom in November if he replaces Kamala on the ticket?