Barnyard96 said:
Trump was ahead in betting odds when I went to bed election night.
Yep. Anybody who wasn't delusional knew Trump was going to lose heading into that election. Biden led all the polls from about May to the end, peaking with a ten-point lead in the middle of that summer. This whole idea that it was a shock that he lost was made up afterwards.agsalaska said:Barnyard96 said:
Trump was ahead in betting odds when I went to bed election night.
That's not at all true, at least not the day before the election It was very clear that Biden was well ahead and barring any major miss in the polling he was going to win. I'm fact the polling slightly undercounted Trumps support and it was a little bit closer than expected.
Have no idea what the betting websites were doing. But anyone following the data knew Biden was almost certainly going to win.
Joes said:Yep. Anybody who wasn't delusional knew Trump was going to lose heading into that election. Biden led all the polls from about May to the end, peaking with a ten-point lead in the middle of that summer. This whole idea that it was a shock that he lost was made up afterwards.agsalaska said:Barnyard96 said:
Trump was ahead in betting odds when I went to bed election night.
That's not at all true, at least not the day before the election It was very clear that Biden was well ahead and barring any major miss in the polling he was going to win. I'm fact the polling slightly undercounted Trumps support and it was a little bit closer than expected.
Have no idea what the betting websites were doing. But anyone following the data knew Biden was almost certainly going to win.
LMCane said:
he still needs to win of the Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania.
how have those state elections been going for Republicans the last 8 years?
Was 2020 the most secure election?😆😆 pic.twitter.com/DA8POqOsYy
— • ᗰISᑕᕼIᗴᖴ ™ • (@4Mischief) June 9, 2024
country, and Republicans have since January 1 picked up more new registrants then Independents have for 3 of the last 5 months. Expect registration gains to accelerate once we get into the late summer.
— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) June 14, 2024
(2/2) pic.twitter.com/CN4rCuIuLx
"According to data from AdImpact, since Super Tuesday, when Trump effectively secured the GOP presidential nomination, through Wednesday, Biden’s campaign had spent $47.8 million on advertising...while Trump’s campaign has spent just $105,000."https://t.co/xZyMQ1vZVG
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) June 13, 2024
I mean, they did go to all the social media companies right before the laptop came out last election and warned them of some kind of misinformation that was about to drop. Then looked the other way when the CIA signed off on allowing a bunch of retired agents to claim it was Russian msinfo, all while knowing it was legit. It doesn't have to be something major, but they have already shown they don't mind running interference.agsalaska said:Rockdoc said:
One of the things most troubling to me is that the FBI desperately wants Trump to lose. They are scared to death of him and we all know what they're capable of. In my opinion they're gonna pull something before long.
Yea man that's pretty far fetched. Makes about as much sense as the 'muh fraud' people.
Stop reading that stuff man. It's a bunch of nonsense.
I feel like this is something spewed by the left and the "Romney Republicans", but Trump is nowhere near the worst republican candidate of all time. Yeah, he has baggage, mainly that he is so hated so much by the left and a sect of the right.agsalaska said:
To be clear, these are two of the worst candidates of all time.
will25u said:"According to data from AdImpact, since Super Tuesday, when Trump effectively secured the GOP presidential nomination, through Wednesday, Biden’s campaign had spent $47.8 million on advertising...while Trump’s campaign has spent just $105,000."https://t.co/xZyMQ1vZVG
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) June 13, 2024
Nobody watches traditional TV anymore. It's all streaming.2023NCAggies said:will25u said:"According to data from AdImpact, since Super Tuesday, when Trump effectively secured the GOP presidential nomination, through Wednesday, Biden’s campaign had spent $47.8 million on advertising...while Trump’s campaign has spent just $105,000."https://t.co/xZyMQ1vZVG
— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) June 13, 2024
He has probably spent more than that. And it's not improving his numbers much at all
Plus all the gaslighting. Media cover. Huge ground game. Twice the money.
RNC needs to get their ground game implemented asap. Spend more money on that than tv.
Trump and RNC have raised over 400 million in 3 weeks. I fully expect that number to be over 600 million by end of June. His sentencing date is July 11th. I fully expect Trump and RNC to quickly have another huge cash influx
Number could top a billion by end of August.
Hope they're using over half of it on ground game, get out to vote effort, ballot harvesting etc
Quote:
Trump is within two points of Biden among young voters between the ages 18-29, a recent New York Times/Siena Poll found. The vote has not been that close since George W. Bush defeated global warming activist Al Gore in 2000.
Another poll, conducted by Quinnipiac, found Trump leading with registered voters between 18-34 by one point. In 2016, two-time failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won that demographic by 19 percentage points. President Joe Biden won the demographic in 2020 by 24 percentage points, according to CNN exit polling.
Trump's inroads with young voters appear to turn on a couple of factors:
[ol]Biden's economy crushed young voters with high housing costs and overall price spikes by about 20 percent just as they graduated college, intended to buy their first home, or wanted to start a family. Trump is an advocate of cryptocurrency, an area to which the Biden administration has been hostile. Trump boosted NFTs, promised to end regulatory hostility, and endorsed U.S.-mined Bitcoin. Healthcare, Biden's number one issue, is of less concern for young voters than the oldest voting bloc, which appears more sympathetic to his political pitches than younger voters. In eight sets of data encompassing the nexus of "cross-pressures," Trump's immigration policy sabotages and undermines the attraction of Biden's most popular issue and thus essentially diminishes Biden's political appeal, according to Ruy Teixera, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. [/ol]
The numbers in poll after poll have been stunning. Still feel like we're being set up for something.FJB24 said:
Trump leading with young voters? Seriously?
Breitbart:Quote:
Trump is within two points of Biden among young voters between the ages 18-29, a recent New York Times/Siena Poll found. The vote has not been that close since George W. Bush defeated global warming activist Al Gore in 2000.
Another poll, conducted by Quinnipiac, found Trump leading with registered voters between 18-34 by one point. In 2016, two-time failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won that demographic by 19 percentage points. President Joe Biden won the demographic in 2020 by 24 percentage points, according to CNN exit polling.
Trump's inroads with young voters appear to turn on a couple of factors:
[ol]Biden's economy crushed young voters with high housing costs and overall price spikes by about 20 percent just as they graduated college, intended to buy their first home, or wanted to start a family. Trump is an advocate of cryptocurrency, an area to which the Biden administration has been hostile. Trump boosted NFTs, promised to end regulatory hostility, and endorsed U.S.-mined Bitcoin. Healthcare, Biden's number one issue, is of less concern for young voters than the oldest voting bloc, which appears more sympathetic to his political pitches than younger voters. In eight sets of data encompassing the nexus of "cross-pressures," Trump's immigration policy sabotages and undermines the attraction of Biden's most popular issue and thus essentially diminishes Biden's political appeal, according to Ruy Teixera, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. [/ol]
This is the one thing that I think can still beat Trump...a candidate swap...oh no said:
the trick up the regime's sleeve is a candidate swap. .
Couple of thoughts on that.ts5641 said:The numbers in poll after poll have been stunning. Still feel like we're being set up for something.FJB24 said:
Trump leading with young voters? Seriously?
Breitbart:Quote:
Trump is within two points of Biden among young voters between the ages 18-29, a recent New York Times/Siena Poll found. The vote has not been that close since George W. Bush defeated global warming activist Al Gore in 2000.
Another poll, conducted by Quinnipiac, found Trump leading with registered voters between 18-34 by one point. In 2016, two-time failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won that demographic by 19 percentage points. President Joe Biden won the demographic in 2020 by 24 percentage points, according to CNN exit polling.
Trump's inroads with young voters appear to turn on a couple of factors:
[ol]Biden's economy crushed young voters with high housing costs and overall price spikes by about 20 percent just as they graduated college, intended to buy their first home, or wanted to start a family. Trump is an advocate of cryptocurrency, an area to which the Biden administration has been hostile. Trump boosted NFTs, promised to end regulatory hostility, and endorsed U.S.-mined Bitcoin. Healthcare, Biden's number one issue, is of less concern for young voters than the oldest voting bloc, which appears more sympathetic to his political pitches than younger voters. In eight sets of data encompassing the nexus of "cross-pressures," Trump's immigration policy sabotages and undermines the attraction of Biden's most popular issue and thus essentially diminishes Biden's political appeal, according to Ruy Teixera, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. [/ol]
ts5641 said:The numbers in poll after poll have been stunning. Still feel like we're being set up for something.FJB24 said:
Trump leading with young voters? Seriously?
Breitbart:Quote:
Trump is within two points of Biden among young voters between the ages 18-29, a recent New York Times/Siena Poll found. The vote has not been that close since George W. Bush defeated global warming activist Al Gore in 2000.
Another poll, conducted by Quinnipiac, found Trump leading with registered voters between 18-34 by one point. In 2016, two-time failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won that demographic by 19 percentage points. President Joe Biden won the demographic in 2020 by 24 percentage points, according to CNN exit polling.
Trump's inroads with young voters appear to turn on a couple of factors:
[ol]Biden's economy crushed young voters with high housing costs and overall price spikes by about 20 percent just as they graduated college, intended to buy their first home, or wanted to start a family. Trump is an advocate of cryptocurrency, an area to which the Biden administration has been hostile. Trump boosted NFTs, promised to end regulatory hostility, and endorsed U.S.-mined Bitcoin. Healthcare, Biden's number one issue, is of less concern for young voters than the oldest voting bloc, which appears more sympathetic to his political pitches than younger voters. In eight sets of data encompassing the nexus of "cross-pressures," Trump's immigration policy sabotages and undermines the attraction of Biden's most popular issue and thus essentially diminishes Biden's political appeal, according to Ruy Teixera, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. [/ol]
.@Polymarket - Presidential Election Winner
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 14, 2024
🟥 Trump: 56.5% (new high)
🟦 Biden: 34.5%
🟦 M. Obama: 4.1%
🟨 RFK Jr: 1.7%https://t.co/BBwAM9qWMw pic.twitter.com/jahJnW5tYN
LMCane said:
FAKE NEWS unless you went to bed at 2200 EST
notex said:.@Polymarket - Presidential Election Winner
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 14, 2024
🟥 Trump: 56.5% (new high)
🟦 Biden: 34.5%
🟦 M. Obama: 4.1%
🟨 RFK Jr: 1.7%https://t.co/BBwAM9qWMw pic.twitter.com/jahJnW5tYN
All time high is a good thing, right?
ts5641 said:
The numbers in poll after poll have been stunning. Still feel like we're being set up for something.
The most popular outcome on that site is GOP winning the EC by 65-104 EVs...LMCane said:
You didn't even review the actual electoral college map you posted- did you?
because IT SHOWS TRUMP LOSING THE ELECTION.
click on the link you provided, and the actual state by state electoral college has Biden winning the election!
policywonk98 said:
Another thing to note is that nobody is polling New Mexico yet. Or at least nobody is releasing polls for them. The last poll done in New Mexico was around Sept last year. Biden was also up in Nevada in Sept of last year. New Mexico has GOP candidates winning statewide offices not that long ago in New Mexico. Pete Domenicis very wealthy daughter is also running for the Senate in New Mexico on law, order, and immigration. The money she spends to try and win a state the size of NM as a GOP candidate might end up helping Trump there.
New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the country. If Trumps message is resonating with Latinos in Nevada it might resonate in New Mexico. If trump can produce turnout there and win NM and NV(long shots sure) and take back AZ and GA. He does not need PA, MI, or WI. That would be a game changer for the GOP and the Dems.
The way these maps are shaping up on President and Senate side, the Dems are going to absolutely need all the extra money they have raised vs the GOP. It's a lot more expensive to be trying to turn markets your direction than to defend a positive position.
Will be interesting to see how this develops as we get to Labor Day.
LMCane said:policywonk98 said:
Another thing to note is that nobody is polling New Mexico yet. Or at least nobody is releasing polls for them. The last poll done in New Mexico was around Sept last year. Biden was also up in Nevada in Sept of last year. New Mexico has GOP candidates winning statewide offices not that long ago in New Mexico. Pete Domenicis very wealthy daughter is also running for the Senate in New Mexico on law, order, and immigration. The money she spends to try and win a state the size of NM as a GOP candidate might end up helping Trump there.
New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the country. If Trumps message is resonating with Latinos in Nevada it might resonate in New Mexico. If trump can produce turnout there and win NM and NV(long shots sure) and take back AZ and GA. He does not need PA, MI, or WI. That would be a game changer for the GOP and the Dems.
The way these maps are shaping up on President and Senate side, the Dems are going to absolutely need all the extra money they have raised vs the GOP. It's a lot more expensive to be trying to turn markets your direction than to defend a positive position.
Will be interesting to see how this develops as we get to Labor Day.
this may be why Burgum is the VP candidate as he has a ton of money to flood into the RNC
I think Youngkin is also wealthy and major players in Wall Street would back him, and it would put Virginia into play for real.
I would actually be excited if Youngkin is the pick
but likely it will be boring as Pence - Tim Scott.
📊 ARIZONA GE: @Rasmussen_Poll
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 14, 2024
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Biden: 40%
🟪 Other: 9%
---
🟥 Trump: 41%
🟦 Biden: 37%
🟨 RFK Jr: 10%
🟨 West: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
⬜ Undecided: 7%
—
Senate
🟦 Gallego: 44%
🟥 Lake: 41%
🟪 Other: 5%
⬜ Undecided: 10%
---
🟦 Gallego: 40%
🟥 Lake: 39%
🟩 Hernandez:… pic.twitter.com/gFdUnAZCJN
Agree with all of this. Keep GOP senators in place, Virginia and ND governors are not needle-movers. Rubio? please.2023NCAggies said:LMCane said:policywonk98 said:
Another thing to note is that nobody is polling New Mexico yet. Or at least nobody is releasing polls for them. The last poll done in New Mexico was around Sept last year. Biden was also up in Nevada in Sept of last year. New Mexico has GOP candidates winning statewide offices not that long ago in New Mexico. Pete Domenicis very wealthy daughter is also running for the Senate in New Mexico on law, order, and immigration. The money she spends to try and win a state the size of NM as a GOP candidate might end up helping Trump there.
New Mexico has the highest percentage of Latinos of any state in the country. If Trumps message is resonating with Latinos in Nevada it might resonate in New Mexico. If trump can produce turnout there and win NM and NV(long shots sure) and take back AZ and GA. He does not need PA, MI, or WI. That would be a game changer for the GOP and the Dems.
The way these maps are shaping up on President and Senate side, the Dems are going to absolutely need all the extra money they have raised vs the GOP. It's a lot more expensive to be trying to turn markets your direction than to defend a positive position.
Will be interesting to see how this develops as we get to Labor Day.
this may be why Burgum is the VP candidate as he has a ton of money to flood into the RNC
I think Youngkin is also wealthy and major players in Wall Street would back him, and it would put Virginia into play for real.
I would actually be excited if Youngkin is the pick
but likely it will be boring as Pence - Tim Scott.
Burgum is not who Trump needs. He needs someone with experience with policy and knows Washington. Cotton and Rubio both bring that. Both would be good picks. Vance is also another that's a finalist.
I'd like Rubio the most of those four then cotton. Both younger. Vast experience. Can be trusted. Both fighters. Rubio would bring some youth and woman votes. Probably some Hispanics.
Oh and Vance is not a safe senate seat, we need him in the senate. Want Younkin to stay governor of Virginia for awhile, try to pull a DeSantis
