When looking at national polls: I find the region breakdown a critical stat. Here is that breakdown from Civiqs (funded by daily Kos)
link to detailsTrump & Biden were tied at 45%.
Here are the region breakdowns
________South____West___MidWest___NorthEast
Trump: ___49%____46%____48%______33%
Biden:____41%____44%____45%______54%
Regions for those who don't know:
NorthEast = PA, NJ & everything to the north east. So PA is the only swing state in that bunch.
South: MD, DC and then everything south of KY, WV & OK.
West: NM, WY, MT, & CO (and everything west).
MidWest: Everything else.
So Trump is ahead in every region but the NorthEast. When you consider California, Oregon & Washington and their relative population size the West being +2% Trump is very interesting for NV, NM & AZ.
South: doesn't really tell much about the swing states like GA or perhaps VA. Too much deep red blood to dominate.
MidWest: Harder to tell. IL will lean democrat but the eastern states are deep red. Ohio is probably not really a swing state anymore either.